Tariffs likely to drive up U.S. prices even with Trump trade deals, experts say | Metals Mine

  • Tariffs likely to drive up U.S. prices even with Trump trade deals, experts say

    From cbsnews.com

    The new normal for U.S. tariffs on foreign goods starts at 15%. Even as President Trump seeks to forge new terms of trade with Japan, the European Union and other global economic partners, he is raising the floor for tariffs to their highest level in decades. Speaking at an AI summit on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said "we'll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%," conditioning the lower rate on countries opening their economies to the U.S. The White House has said sharply higher tariffs could take effect on dozens of countries as soon as Aug. 1 unless they ink new trade deals. The Trump ... (full story)

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The Fool
Jul 26, 2025 11:35am
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In the last CPI, the cost of goods broadly increased. The "all items" index was up 2.7% yoy. The cost of services decreased, so that balanced out the overall CPI number. Having services costs decrease is an indication of lack of demand, as people are reining in their spending on unnecessary things like leisure, travel, etc.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The typical partisan response is that this is "fake news" - the numbers don't lie, except, of course, the numbers MUST be a lie if they reflect badly on my party or the ideology in which I've invested my identity.

If you want to say, "but look at the stock market" - ok, the indices are being floated by an interminable appetite for a short list of AI and cloud-computing related names. A third of the value of the SnP 500 is in the top 15 names; similar for the Nasdaq 100. A lot of these companies are just doing business with each other, mostly. Nobody on Main Street is buying Blackwell chips.

There is no doubt that broadly-applied tariffs are already now and will be even more inflationary. Open to question is how long that effect lasts. Also, the effect on the economy at large remains to be seen. Of course it remains to be seen, because a lot of the tariffs have not actually gone into effect with full force. But, also, there are other things happening in the economy. Removing large numbers of illegal immigrants - these are wage earners, tax payers, and goods/services consumers - could ultimately be deflationary. It's complicated.

"It's complicated" is not what partisans want to hear. They want things to be black and white. Ambivalence does not agree well with a hate-based, rwactionary ideology.
Aussi
Jul 26, 2025 6:13pm
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Quoting chemosi
"Democratic Party Deletes X Post Accidentally Spotlighting Bidenflation" https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...house-rebuttal "...the Democratic Party's official X account attempted to criticize President Trump over lingering food inflation. Yet the DEI warriors running the account showed zero understanding of when the inflation actually began - during the first term of the Biden-Harris regime. What comes next is hilarious. The social media team likely got a nudge from higher-ups...
man a real melt down in the democrates brain
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Eurorally
Jul 26, 2025 8:53am
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Not only that! The dilettante assumption that raising tariffs simply means that they are added to the price and the American consumer will pay for them is erroneous for more economic reasons than one, too extensive to discuss here.

Let us just point out that the dilettante warnings of inflation ("just wait for the next week, month, year, decade") have not panned out.
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chemosi
Jul 26, 2025 4:43pm
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"Democratic Party Deletes X Post Accidentally Spotlighting Bidenflation"
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...house-rebuttal
"...the Democratic Party's official X account attempted to criticize President Trump over lingering food inflation. Yet the DEI warriors running the account showed zero understanding of when the inflation actually began - during the first term of the Biden-Harris regime.

What comes next is hilarious. The social media team likely got a nudge from higher-ups about their epic messaging mistake and deleted the post—probably after the White House responded to the X post with some much-needed common sense."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Schultz
Jul 27, 2025 10:53am
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Quoting Eurorally
{quote} You need to bone up on economics. You need to bone up on economics. The reason why tariffs did not cuase inflation are manifld:

1. "Price elasticity"
There is zero economics in what you wrote, despite throwing in some words known in economics.

Price elasticity goes to a change in quantity as a result of a price change.

That is just the first error. Price elasticity has nothing to do with "why tariffs did not cuase inflation". In fact, its inconsistent. Please don't tell me that this is something that you have thought about.

I'll leave the other dot points because things just keep getting more bizarre.
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TimmyBTrades
Jul 26, 2025 11:21am
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Quoting Eurorally
Not only that! The dilettante assumption that raising tariffs simply means that they are added to the price and the American consumer will pay for them is erroneous for more economic reasons than one, too extensive to discuss here. Let us just point out that the dilettante warnings of inflation ("just wait for the next week, month, year, decade") have not panned out.
Where will the tariffs be accounted for? Options:

1) Consumer demand strong, firms pass on tariff costs - Inflation
2) Consumer demand strong, firms absorb tariff costs - Hit to Earnings/Equity Market
3) Consumer demand weak, firms pass on tariff cost - Economic slowdown from reduced consumption
4) Firm demand weak, foreign exporters lower prices to remain competitive - The only good outcome!

We are seeing China increase exports to non-US trading partners, so I don't think option 4 is most likely. Tariff revenue is completely drowned out by the increase in spending.

What are we gaining here? No inflation yet does not necessarily mean good.
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TimmyBTrades
Jul 27, 2025 11:33am
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Quoting Eurorally
{quote} You need to bone up on economics. The reason why tariffs did not cuase inflation are manifld: 1. "Price elasticity" 2. Keeping the share of the lucrative US market - example is for instance the Chinese consumer goods company Temu that sends me every week email saying "it was $49.99, we lowered the price to $0.01." 3. Transfer of the manufacturing capacity from the foreign lands to the American soil that is going on on a massive scale. ..and a few more. The results are palpable - to answer your question "what do we...
1. Literally gave you the breakdown, if you don't think my post addresses elasticity I don't know what to tell you
2. Also addressed, the world economy is not just the US and China
3. GDP has increased as the share of manufacturing has decreased, it's fine if you want manufacturing jobs back but don't wrap it in an argument that it is clearly 'good for the economy'

a. With an accompanying decrease in the capital account balance
b. I never made this claim, I listed it as one possibility of 4
c. Not saying right or wrong but corrective policies benefit American producers to the cost of American consumer surplus
d. Lol not even close, maybe a slight dent
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Eurorally
Jul 27, 2025 9:23am
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
{quote} Where will the tariffs be accounted for? Options: 1) Consumer demand strong, firms pass on tariff costs - Inflation 2) Consumer demand strong, firms absorb tariff costs - Hit to Earnings/Equity Market 3) Consumer demand weak, firms pass on tariff cost - Economic slowdown from reduced consumption 4) Firm demand weak, foreign exporters lower prices to remain competitive - The only good outcome! We are seeing China increase exports to non-US trading partners, so I don't think option 4 is most likely. Tariff revenue is completely drowned out...
You need to bone up on economics. The reason why tariffs did not cuase inflation are manifld:

1. "Price elasticity"
2. Keeping the share of the lucrative US market - example is for instance the Chinese consumer goods company Temu that sends me every week email saying "it was $49.99, we lowered the price to $0.01."
3. Transfer of the manufacturing capacity from the foreign lands to the American soil that is going on on a massive scale.
..and a few more.

The results are palpable - to answer your question "what do we get for this:"
a. Lowering the negative trade balance by 55% to date already
b. No inflation as the prices are not going up in spite of "just wait for the next week data, next month, next year, next decade...")
c. When BMW was imported with the tariff of 2.5% and the retail sales tax of 8.0% and a Chevrolet, no luxury car, faced in Germany a tariff of 10% (22% on American pickups) and the VAT of 20% just to be allowed into Germany, we were favoring foreign economies, foreign labor and foreign manufacturers. With more equitable tariffs (we were just trying to be more "free market" than others), we are now favoring the American economy, American labor and American manufacturers, it is that simple.
d. And where do you think the tax cuts are comin from? They are funded by the income from tariffs.
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chemosi
Jul 28, 2025 4:05am — Edited
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Quoting Schultz
"zero understanding of when the inflation actually began - during the first term of the Biden-Harris regime." Judging by the recklessness of the recent Big Beautiful Bill, and calls for a massive cut in the Fed interest rate when matters economic are actually quite good, should Trump have been in office during a period of worldwide supply chain disruptions, and worldwide massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, who would doubt that graph would have been any different? So, the pinheads made a mistake. Big deal. I say better watch ya back for...
You can right a better non partisan article if you so wish so...
But whats the point if everyone's point of view is so partisan...
You can twist your opinion to fit whatever narrative you desire. for my own case, its geopolitics analysis for fiscal changes to currency moves...
Finger pointing is the order of the day when dealing with current affairs and we have to get it right when dealing with current affairs...
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Schultz
Jul 26, 2025 11:27am
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Well, tariffs are a tax. A sales tax. And yes, they are added on to the price of the good. Somebody in the USA has to pay. Trump wanted Walmart to pay. Good luck with that.

That it flows through to the price that US manufacturers need to make their toys, they will have to increase their price.

On the other hand plonking a tax onto things stifles demand. That will happen, all other things being equal.

Which they're not. We are at the forex section - clearly the USD fluctuates around each currency it trades with (actually a lot more slowly that it seems - the US dollar Index is about the same as it was 10 years ago), so it will be difficult to know if the change in the price of an import is due to the tariff or something else.

Technical note - if something becomes more expensive, not as much traded, equals a lower weight in inflation calculations. Just something to think about. That can move very fast.
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Schultz
Jul 27, 2025 12:38am
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"zero understanding of when the inflation actually began - during the first term of the Biden-Harris regime."

Judging by the recklessness of the recent Big Beautiful Bill, and calls for a massive cut in the Fed interest rate when matters economic are actually quite good, should Trump have been in office during a period of worldwide supply chain disruptions, and worldwide massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, who would doubt that graph would have been any different?

So, the pinheads made a mistake. Big deal. I say better watch ya back for when MAGA makes a trip-up with some facts, eh?

Technical point - What is "THE inflation"? When in fact did inflation begin? I'd suggest inflation took off bigtime sometime in 1971 under Nixon. Or possibly in Roman times. Or earlier.

Or technically do you mean an increase in inflation?

If ya gunna criticize, Get It Right. Know that when you point a finger there are three pointing back.
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clockwork71
Jul 26, 2025 6:56am
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Wild, considering the inflation is supposed to already be here, and a lot of prices are dropping. Inflation forgot to show up.
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240z
Jul 28, 2025 8:46am
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Quoting Schultz
"zero understanding of when the inflation actually began - during the first term of the Biden-Harris regime." Judging by the recklessness of the recent Big Beautiful Bill, and calls for a massive cut in the Fed interest rate when matters economic are actually quite good, should Trump have been in office during a period of worldwide supply chain disruptions, and worldwide massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, who would doubt that graph would have been any different? So, the pinheads made a mistake. Big deal. I say better watch ya back for...
So, you drank the antifreeze?
Reply
Trader#40BF
Jul 26, 2025 9:38am
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Quoting clockwork71
Wild, considering the inflation is supposed to already be here, and a lot of prices are dropping. Inflation forgot to show up.
That's why it's called TACO. None of the tariffs are on place yet, he keeps pushing it to further dates. I think it's third time already that tariffs was delayed.Once the agreements or just tariffs are in place, price will rise.
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Trader#F072
Jul 26, 2025 11:26am
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The only people who have been saying inflation will be out of control are political partisans, like the Fed which is political as is everyone these days, and uneducated people on this site. You know the ones, they have told you to short stocks everyday for three straight months. No one knows how much tariff prices will be passed on. But the markets have been very clear for months. Stocks skyrocketing and bond yields sideways, that means no serious inflation signs.

Can that change? Of course, markets always change over time, but many people have blown out their accounts predicting something that hasn’t happened at all. If you are smart you have been long stocks riding the tidal wave, if inflation spikes then get out of your longs. Don’t be one of those here short for a 33% up move then come here and spew hate because you are angry at yourself for being wrong everyday.
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Trader#A74F
Jul 26, 2025 3:28pm
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Trader F072

That’s political bile . The markets are overvalued by any metric. , your approach and appraisal is amateurish . Please refrain from commenting if you have no appreciation of valuation .

Thank you for your attention to this matter
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240z
Jul 27, 2025 5:57am
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stop looking in the rearview mirror, the housing market is the coming market driver. ... stay positive
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Trader#C413
Jul 26, 2025 7:50am
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All of the experts are not so experts what a joke
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Trader#DCD4
Jul 27, 2025 9:27am
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Beef prices now average $10 a lb up 35% there is a lot of inflation here, just not in the make believe MAGA cult world.
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