here's some of important price level base on my analysis.. we are still in bull run with bearish bias
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- #80,864
- Edited 12:49pm Jun 29, 2025 12:17pm | Edited 12:49pm
- Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,008 Posts
{quote} Hi Thomas, I am with you; I wouldn't go full blast Dollar strength (DXY). Too many factors speak against. One critical moment that will point to the future trajectory will the Monday's close. Monday's close will seal the month and the yearly quarter. Both are significant time parameter for the long term - at which whales like pension funds and re-insurers looking at. Of course, there might be some relief rallies - but they will turn out to be limited. One reason is in the channel of your chart. From another source I took this channel application...
in my opinion, Gold is not DXY and DXY is not Gold, DXY can affect Gold price but in not every movement of DXY to downside => Gold increase, or otherwise. Both pair have its own accumulation/distribution. Btw, USA bank now have a huge unrealize loss in bond US-10Y (i mean really HUUUUUGE), yes it mean rate have to lower but i have to tell this: DUE TO THEY BUY SO MUCH US-10Y 15Y 20Y THEREFORE THERE IS A HUGE "UNREALIZED" LOSS BUT IT IS 10 YEARS + MATURITY. And you wait for another crisis? They said no They are cooking something, since 2019 right before the Covid disater, a big range of accumulation of XAUUSD and breakout, till now, all gonna start with a trendline and MA break, big hand are planning for all of these lol.Im not a fan of fundamental, 10%-20% of that affect my decision only, especially when the policy nowaday can change with 1 single tweet!
No 1Quarter candle close below the trendline = no confirm for DXY continue to fal, it just a fucking trap, a trap that plan a looooong time ago
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
{quote} I expect it to close the weekly bar near 3300, which will be clearly below SMA10. From then on back to the recent mean (maybe 3000?) over the coming months, before going to 4k and beyond
might be a reason for a false breakout and a reason to push price up again… let’s see
- #80,867
- Jun 29, 2025 1:31pm Jun 29, 2025 1:31pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts
- #80,868
- Jun 29, 2025 1:46pm Jun 29, 2025 1:46pm
{quote}
Theoretically there could be a case that the rest of the world is printing money but the US not. In this case Gold would go up and the USD would get stronger too. Practically this will not happen because it would totally obliterate the US export.
Anyhow, but long-term macro trends are bulldozers or slow-moving freight trains once they start moving... they move. They are nothing for the day traders, I agree. Most of the retail traders will realize them once they are long in the tooth or almost over. (I say this out of my own experience)
- #80,869
- Jun 29, 2025 2:38pm Jun 29, 2025 2:38pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,559 Posts
Something very strange in this GOLD thread when there are so many brand-new members making their very 1st post, and many of them espousing what appears to be years of knowledge immediately, and then they disappear never to be seen again; anyone notice this? Or just don't care, just ignore them?
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #80,871
- Jun 29, 2025 3:00pm Jun 29, 2025 3:00pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,559 Posts
{quote} You mean ChatGPT knowledge?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15293040
This one that you are engaging with could be using A.I. -
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15293013
And many are just plain dumb, or little snippets of opinions like this -
And the usernames are absolutely forgettable as well.
Anyway, be ready for the new, albeit short, week, NFP and such, good luck all.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #80,873
- Jun 29, 2025 4:23pm Jun 29, 2025 4:23pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,004 Posts
Insane in the Brain..
- #80,874
- Jun 29, 2025 4:26pm Jun 29, 2025 4:26pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts
Something very strange in this GOLD thread when there are so many brand-new members making their very 1st post, and many of them espousing what appears to be years of knowledge immediately, and then they disappear never to be seen again; anyone notice this? Or just don't care, just ignore them? {image}
- #80,875
- Jun 29, 2025 4:27pm Jun 29, 2025 4:27pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts
{quote} could be a coin toss… noticed that weekend GU is missing this weekend
- #80,876
- Jun 29, 2025 4:32pm Jun 29, 2025 4:32pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,004 Posts
{quote} Yup, i noticed that... not sure why GU not included
Insane in the Brain..
- #80,877
- Jun 29, 2025 4:34pm Jun 29, 2025 4:34pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,559 Posts
{quote} Only my opinion that wont buy you a Cappuccino at Starbucks.... but but but My guess is that its the mods creating new accunts to make FF seem more popular than it is.... FF is struggling..... thats why i follow so many users to see if they ever post again.... 99% dont and the other 1% maybe have 2 or 3 max posts...... FF is a bit like Twatter b4 Musk bought it when he was moaning aboutr fake accunts
Hey, next we will be able to PAY for a Blue badge and have a special @the _real_erebus tag
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #80,878
- Jun 29, 2025 4:38pm Jun 29, 2025 4:38pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,365 Posts
{quote}
- #80,880
- Jun 29, 2025 6:36pm Jun 29, 2025 6:36pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,004 Posts
Insane in the Brain..