Gold

took profit on that a while ago. At 77

What happens next

what i'm looking at for next week

There was large absoption and signifcant buying near the lows with a decent level below.

expecting more accumulation and a break of the lows before a reversal to 3309

then trend continuation to new lows and another significant level at 3204

How to Display Volume Profile and Fibonacci Simultaneously
Step 1: Identifying the POI Pattern
- Recognize key Price of Interest (POI) levels on the chart
- Mark significant swing highs and lows that form the pattern
Step 2: Volume Profile Application
• Draw the Volume Profile range over your target area (e.g., a strong trend movement)
• Adjust settings to clearly display:
- Point of Control (POC)
- High Volume Nodes
- Low Volume Nodes
Step 3: Fibonacci Implementation
• Draw Fibonacci retracement from the bottom to top of the same wave
• Customize key levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%)
• Set visual preferences for clarity
The Golden Combination Results:
o POC volume acts as dynamic support/resistance
o Fibonacci levels (23.6% and 38.2%) serve as Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ)

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15292631

DXY monthly looks pretty bearish to me, Im looking for Continuation in the next Monthly candle. I dont see the Bullish DXY just yet.

Gold is down after Ceasefire. There is a certin fear premium in Gold. When conflicts end, it tends to fall.

Now we have a Weak USD, low DXY Rising EUR/USD and falling USD/CHF, Even GBP is gaing against the USD.

To me there is a miss match, it could return to the mean.

I agree with a retracement in the USD, some streght in the DXY and Reversals in EUR/USD and USD/CHF. To me next month still looks like falling DXY, hard to sell Gold.
Id rather follow momentum once USD streght comes back in, once trump takes action to his promis of streghtening the USD, so far its not looking like it, rather the opposite with US dept and the new bills

I see a reversal in DXY weekly from the technical side. Just seeing some more downside. So shortterm still bullish Gold

No point in guessing reversal, rather following USD streght once it happens. Once there are reasons for it.

Target reach didnt mean it will bounce, it could be thrust low then retrace back to test high and continue downside or just sideway buid another move

"If today the price ever touches 3268, there will bestrong bounce"

He was very certain. Maybe got some info from Market makers we don't know about.

Yeah conservatively , both gold and usdx continue fall initially and due great tl may early pullback tries possible , like 3220 and 94 let's see
Anyway next week and next month will ecxcercise extreme precaution , minimum play play in all ranges in bottoming format, that is , like sideways play , scalping only safe here!

gold ... ascending triangle pattern

Hi Thomas,

I am with you; I wouldn't go full blast Dollar strength (DXY). Too many factors speak against. One critical moment that will point to the future trajectory will the Monday's close. Monday's close will seal the month and the yearly quarter. Both are significant time parameter for the long term - at which whales like pension funds and re-insurers looking at.

Of course, there might be some relief rallies - but they will turn out to be limited. One reason is in the channel of your chart. From another source I took this channel application (3 monthly chart) as an enhancement to your chart.


It is all about the quarterly close on Monday. If the break of the lower channel line stays... then we will be looking for further down for a pretty while because it is a significant long-term channel stretching over almost 20 years.

Why further down is very possible? Look at the fundamental picture!
Long term charts follow long term policies. And for the DXY it is Donald's battle plan for making America great and a manufacturing place again. Irrespective if this will turn out as he envisions it (by all propaganda we have to admit that his vision is legitimate - many other countries do it too) one tool, which I see is mandatory in having even the chance to succeed, is Dollar devaluation. With a super strong currency it's difficult to export (hey, as Germans we should know this - remember the early 90th? Legendary companies died because of the super strong Deutschmark). As one analyst pointed out a few weeks ago - America's trade deficit could be cut to half if not even more simply by.... devaluating the Dollar by 20-25%.

Now... put the puzzle together.
Donald likes to drain the swamp, correct the mess of sleepy Joe, bring back manufacturing etc. and stabilize America's finances. But that does not necessarily mean to cut spending!!! That is and was the confusion and misunderstanding of many ordinary people and most prominent between the duo Elon and Donald).
Elon is in the austerity camp. He wants to stabilize trough reducing the debt by cutting governmental spending together with an increase of efficiency / productivity.
Donald is addressing the problem from the opposite end. He understands that he cannot cut government expenditure as drastic as it would be necessary because one of the biggest GDP providers is... voila -> Government Services by itself! (including all the politicians pay) That would collapse the system, make his political supporters flee and his legacy will go down the drain. So, he thinks that he can do it in another way -> to stimulate the economy in various ways so that the economy outgrowths the already created and the future debt. (well, good luck with this too) These are two entirely different concepts! Hence, the clash between both buddies.

So now, we know how it ended. It is clear, Donald is the boss, and the future will be massive stimulation. And that is what Gold sniffed since December last year.

How might that play out?
I see as the starting factor the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) -> which looks (and probably it is for my view) financially destabilizing. But Donald and his administration thinks that coupled with deregulation his administration can lay the foundation for a new manufacturing infrastructure. Then the tariffs -> this will draw physical investments into the US - which would theoretically strengthen the Dollar. Initially the local market might be stimulated to buy more local... but on the long run (after the manufacturing base has been created) encouraged partners/other countries (who made beautiful deals ) to buy goods manufactured in US will be drawn in. While export will initially dip a little, in the meantime the Dollar will depreciate due to the fiscal policy countermeasures. This will be done intentionally fiscally (BBB) and monetarily (interest rate cut) to compensate past and potential new Dollar strengthening (in particular the one induced by the new physical investments of foreign companies). The aim is to give American products an advantage (the same way the Chinese are doing it) in being competitive in later part of the phase when export growth kicks in.

The stimulated domestic consumption of the local manufactured products in the first phase PLUS the new export of American made products of the later phase will then balance over time the trade deficit AND generate tax income to pay back the dept created along the way to this point (and hopefully the on from the past too).

That is Donald's concept to stabilize America's finances. The emphasis is on STABILIZING. That means - after an initial burst - not growing uncontrollable further. At which point a level of stability might be achieved - at which absolute price level that is a different matter. Maybe we have to add on everything a zero - who knows?
And then there is a geopolitical component. The plan intents to drain the BRICS block (or better the US is gaining back a little, preventing falling into irrelevance) of the global manufacturing capacity. But this is another story.

For the ones who still have difficulties to grasp... the battleplan of the current American administration is having a controlled inflation (all prices up over the next years by factor x2... x3) for the hope that afterwards everything will be fine again. Then they might cut one or two zeros and say hey we are back to the 1960/70th...
That's that what I see, and I can only say good luck...

For traders it is important to know this because that will dictate the price movements. After all, for us absolute prices are irrelevant because we trade on margins.

When all this meets the market, you will see long term changes in the charts and in our case here the Gold and DXY chart above. Such drastic change in American policy will in the same way drastically impact the DXY chart.... by breaking out of this (Dollar strengthening) channel to the south direction - probably into the DXY 70th range.
Since Donald is very determined in his way to go... so - for the reasons stated above - will be the DXY. And this is why I believe we are in for a long ride.

The strong move of the past weeks in the Gold and DXY is because the whales are just starting to catch the move. The majority of them are still USD LONG! If they start switching or even hedging only... then I would say Gold 5000 and EUR 1.40xx-1.50xx here we come!

You have to listen to Alf (The Macro Channel) it will open your eyes (I can provide you the link - just PM me)

Best macro analysis on FF for a very very long time.

Gold is on a new strong support zone now. we can get another uptrend continuation from the coming week again.

Thank you Sir.

What can be opening of gold on monday if above 3300 so should short or buy

Please what support level is more accurate?
The first has multiple past rejections forming a clear horizontal support zone that price is reacting to.
But the in the seond chart,they’re hoping for price to make a sell towards 3126.695 before it makes a bullish bounce.
which would you go for ?

Get everyone to long and there comes the wide range red bar closes below 3000.

LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE ON GOLD: This year´s TRUMP low (3125) has been the most extreme macroeconomic risk point of the year. I doubt price will go below that point, given macro is fairly stable now. If any, war in the middle east willl resume, which will help gold spike.
This is a message for those doom preachers (guys, avoid those doomers working for the MMs).
In addition, demand for gold is huge now (China backing the rmnb with gold!!). Price can be manipulated down for some time, but no collapsed down.
Stay cool, take advantage of the low hanging fruit. Keep scalping with a view to reversal.
This is just my opinion.

MN close below 3285 will open gate to 3204 and then 3093..