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Nova Volume Trading System

Hmm I've been having a think and on my last reply post something seems rather odd.

People believe they are being stop hunted by institutional money but yet on the chart I posted you can clearly see that the retail broker had the lower low.

If institutions or "smart money" were hunting stops, it would reflect on centralized markets like COMEX surely?

This actually seems to show that it's the liquidity providers that actually manipulate the price which will obviously be banks.

I think there is a misconception between institutional trading and banks/liquidity providers that manipulate price.

Check this:

On the below chart you would most likely believe that price will continue down after the pullback as it created a lower low (on IC XAUUSD).

However, CME data shows it was more or less a double bottom hence why price actually reversed.

I know spot fx and futures are different things but it tells an interesting story.

My take is:

  1. GC futures = Institutional flows, centralized market.
  2. XAUUSD = Retail noise, decentralized OTC market.

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You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Quoting xkwisit2001
{quote} Yes to a degree, you want to have both at your disposal to monitor what smart money is doing and what retail is doing. Retail entries will be easier to enter as you are seeing the lower volume as things ramp up which is in line with my 3rd histo bar open entry. Depending on the time, the CME data can be traded as is but if it's moving heavily then it can be difficult to read the data as every bar is large....... buuutt if you get in at the earliest signs then you can follow smart money. Have a look at GC and IC markets (XAUUSD) and can then...
Basically, you look at both datas given, inspect which one moves market more(institutions or retail traders) and based on that select where to take signals from?
Good approach, I like that, you have to adapt to power side when trading volume.
Quoting Ju4ara
{quote} Basically, you look at both datas given, inspect which one moves market more(institutions or retail traders) and based on that select where to take signals from? Good approach, I like that, you have to adapt to power side when trading volume.
During CME hours I would primarily focus on GC for how its moving and the volume shown.

But you will also need to also look at what IC is doing too as that is more the retail side of things.

You'll notice a lot when backtesting that there are many instances of IC showing a lower low but GC showing a higher low and vice versa.

Futures charts will and can be different which I understand but what I am observing is how the liquidity providers manipulate the price compared to CME where the data actually comes from.

Small bars on GC doesn't mean there is no volume, it's more that the low volume translated into IC looks like higher volume as retail are a small fraction of the market.

But going forward, I am observing the correlation between both for future trades and if I find anything to report on then I'll of course post.

EDIT: Of course executions will be made on your own broker but it's good to look at both and also consider different stops to eliminate being wicked out by the liquidity providers/Brokers
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Quoting xkwisit2001
{quote} During CME hours I would primarily focus on GC for how its moving and the volume shown. But you will also need to also look at what IC is doing too as that is more the retail side of things. You'll notice a lot when backtesting that there are many instances of IC showing a lower low but GC showing a higher low and vice versa. Futures charts will and can be different which I understand but what I am observing is how the liquidity providers manipulate the price compared to CME where the data actually comes from. Small bars on GC doesn't mean...
Very interesting observations. I have seen a youtube video (a long time ago and can't find it now - I think it may have been the BTMM guy) showing what you describe on a DOM/Matrix-type chart. It showed retail broker spreads widening at highs and lows, which could be what is being seen on your chart. It's hard to know precisely what is causing it; it could be brokers, the LP's, or maybe just the difference between spot and the next month out.
Quoting xkwisit2001
Hmm I've been having a think and on my last reply post something seems rather odd. People believe they are being stop hunted by institutional money but yet on the chart I posted you can clearly see that the retail broker had the lower low. If institutions or "smart money" were hunting stops, it would reflect on centralized markets like COMEX surely? This actually seems to show that it's the liquidity providers that actually manipulate the price which will obviously be banks. I think there is a misconception between institutional trading and banks/liquidity...
Interesting take. So many times have I fallen into this trap, thinking that the market broke a high/low structure, which made me believe that the market was following its trend (based on basic market structure principles), only for it to actually create a fakeout and reverse the move.
He bought? Dump it!
Hey guys, hope you did well today and banked some pips!

Nova performance today has been great and today has currently offered up to 15R and a possible extra 6R still open.

I tend to get on around 11am GMT time so that's pretty much when I start looking for entries.

I don't take every single entry and I am pretty picky about what I do enter but when I share here I will mark them all up for you to see what is possible.

I marked the NFP entry to show it hit as much as a 6.7R but I would have maybe got out at the first sign of weakness which was the first white candle at the low and that would have been a 5.5R win but I didn't take a trade for NFP... oh well.

Todays Nova performance is:

 

  1. 8 wins at 2R (green dotted vertical lines)
  2. 1 loss 1R (red dotted vertical line)
  3. 3 entries still open (white dotted vertical lines)

I would have closed the open ones by now to be honest but if not they can only hit a break even.

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You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
I had a 1 to 3 today. 2nd day of using.
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Quoting xkwisit2001
Hey guys, hope you did well today and banked some pips! Nova performance today has been great and today has currently offered up to 15R and a possible extra 6R still open. I tend to get on around 11am GMT time so that's pretty much when I start looking for entries. I don't take every single entry and I am pretty picky about what I do enter but when I share here I will mark them all up for you to see what is possible. I marked the NFP entry to show it hit as much as a 6.7R but I would have maybe got out at the first sign of weakness which was the...

This was me today. Watched. still on demo and deciding what time to come to the market but lovely simple setup you have. Was beautiful on GU today too. This was Gold for me
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Quoting steph69416
I had a 1 to 3 today. 2nd day of using. {image}
You gained a 1 to 3R trade or you mean you lost 1 out of 3?

If you gained then that's great but looking over your entries... do a little backtesting to enter at the open of the 3rd histogram bar in the direction the background colour is telling you.

I.e when in an uptrend and the background turns blue then enter on the 3rd histogram bar candle with a stop loss below the recent swing low.

If you're using this with your own strategy then you can ignore me though but that is how I like to enter. Always best to see 2 consecutive bars in the direction of the background colour.

Hope that makes sense but you'll get better with it over time or if you read through the thread.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Quoting miron7
{quote} This was me today. Watched. still on demo and deciding what time to come to the market but lovely simple setup you have. Was beautiful on GU today too. This was Gold for me {image}
Great stuff mate! you'll fall in love with nova over time once you gain confidence.

I would advise to fund an account with just say £10/$10 and trade the lowest size i.e 0.01 lot

You will only ever gain confidence trading for real as the mindset shifts
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Check this out, Perfect horizontal lines and they were all there before price

Without EMA's

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With EMA's
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You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
I twin trade first position was for a 1 to 2 and the 2nd position I try for a 1 to 3. after the 1 to 2 closes I move the last position to a 1 to 1 either I get the full amount or it takes me out at a 1 to 1. Ill study on the 3rd histogram. Thank you!
Quoting xkwisit2001
Check this out, Perfect horizontal lines and they were all there before price Without EMA's {image} With EMA's{image}
in what way do younuse these pivot levels for your trading?
Been using this system since late December, and it's been profitable so far.

I'm wondering if there's a tip on how to minimise some annoying stops that hit the intended target later

An example from yesterday:
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He bought? Dump it!
Quoting ifurlan
Been using this system since late December, and it's been profitable so far. I'm wondering if there's a tip on how to minimise some annoying stops that hit the intended target later An example from yesterday: {image}
When price has been above the 50 EMA for a while, you want to wait for a bigger pullback into the moving averages before jumping into a trade. Price tends to "recharge" between the 50 and 100 EMAs before continuing its move.

If the EMAs have already flipped into an uptrend and you caught the Nova entry on the first pullback after where you marked the shift, I’d typically wait for Nova to show a deeper pullback before taking another trade unless there are bigger swings like the downtrend before.

Where the Nova background turned white, that’s where you start watching for entries. Once it flips back to blue, that’s your signal the trend might be ready to resume but remember to only enter when the signal line is curving back up towards the 0 level or it is above the 0 level.

Hope that makes sense to you, if not... to simplify it:

Keep an eye on the signal line. If it has been above the 0 level for too long... wait for it to go below 0 and then start going back above the 0 level again
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Quoting Goran56
{quote} in what way do younuse these pivot levels for your trading?
I will share this in a later reply in more detail but essentially what I am doing is using the fixed volume profile in trading view and marking the last 4 or 5 previous weeks and then marking a horizontal line on every value area high, value area low and point of control.

This is a bit more advanced BUT I am in the process of adding this to the nova indicator to plot automatically... was just a little sneak peek to see how people would respond

If there are no targets above where price is, then I go back to any previous week where there is an overlapping candle and mark it out so I can see future targets.

If price is at all time highs then this isn't possible though lol.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Have you attempted to compile/normalize all of the various retail data volume sources that tradingview offers? Then compare it to futures.
Quoting 80050
Have you attempted to compile/normalize all of the various retail data volume sources that tradingview offers? Then compare it to futures.
Can you elaborate on your suggestion? My undertsanding is volume data is dependant on which brokers feed you pick. there isnt any centralised volume data. Im not aware of any method to "compile" data from more than one broker.
its all just one persons opinion....
Quoting 80050
Have you attempted to compile/normalize all of the various retail data volume sources that tradingview offers? Then compare it to futures.
I don't really have the time to do that. I just focus on what I am trading.

Each data feed is different though across almost every broker. A lot of them actually use the same shared liquidity pool but their data would be different as they themselves have a liquidity pool which is their own customers.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink
Quoting xkwisit2001
Hey guys, hope you did well today and banked some pips! Nova performance today has been great and today has currently offered up to 15R and a possible extra 6R still open. I tend to get on around 11am GMT time so that's pretty much when I start looking for entries. I don't take every single entry and I am pretty picky about what I do enter but when I share here I will mark them all up for you to see what is possible. I marked the NFP entry to show it hit as much as a 6.7R but I would have maybe got out at the first sign of weakness which was the...
Do you also wait for some new histogram bars showing up in the other direction of the trend so it forms a bit of a bigger retracement? Because In terms of entering on the 3rd candle open after like a different coloured histogram there would've been more entry's. I put some yellow circles around them in the indicator so it's better visible what I mean.

What is the reason you don't take these trade or is this just pure expertise?

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