*For what it is worth Bakker, this is not addressed to you, just quoting it based on the "doubt" word so many others have expressed*


Message for all those new to trading...or who have commented that they wonder what will "happen"....

Yes there will be a cut. Yes, it is baked into the market (at a 98.1% chance of happening..actually an increase from yesterday, if you can believe it). No, today's number won't affect December (the Fed's SEP from September has indicated exactly what will happen in 2024 and stated 2025 will be data dependent). Yes, the FED has consistently said FUTURE cuts (read 2025) will be data dependent. However, they have also stated that a single month's data is NOT a good indicator of trend that affects their decision making process immediately thereafter.

So, watch for shifts in the 2025 projections during the next FOMC SEP release.

Bonus tip:
No, the majority of commentators on these sites don't have answers (and may not even see the things YOU do...so take EVERY piece of opinion with a grain of salt....mine included, though I try not to comment without backup data).

Extra bonus tip: knowing whether the Fed cuts in December doesn't mean you know how the market will react. The market has baked in a cut. However, if the conference call suggests FUTURE cuts will be different than the market anticipates, THAT could affect price action. Things will bounce as participants weigh the supporting commentary....and since you have no idea what that will be, you cannot trade accordingly.

All of the folks on here who say "PPI means there will be no December cut" need to go off and make asymmetrical bets for no cut.....they would be paid HANDSOMELY for their risk just shorting the fed fund futures....but they won't, because very few people are willing to take 1.9% bets, regardless of what they type online.

Chance of rate cut: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

Happy holidays to everyone...best of luck wrapping up 2024 and into the new year!

You might note that they increased the previous month PPI from .2 to .3. Without this change, the PPI for this month would be even higher. Decreased likely hood of rate cut. But my gut says that the Fed will want to save face and issue a .25 cut this month, and slow down next year.

Forget about lower interest rates, bad PPI will push CPI higher.

mom maybe. yoy certainly not. The PPI yoy was expected at 2.6% and it came with 3.0% and the core was also 0.2 pp above consens. This only confirms the rebound of inflation.

... and the PCE. The PPI is good in explaining some PCE components. USD will strengthen further.

Obviously it will weaken the USD. Gold dropped back to 38.2 Fib after the news:

I doubt if there will be a cut, persistent high inflation is a big concern for the Fed.

I’m confused will there be a rate cut or not? And will the rate cut strengthen or weaken the USD?

Can you explain that?

Bad PPI??? If you don't understand the data, don't comment on it. This PPI number only increases the likelihood of a rate cut this month.

Because this ppi increase is largely due to food and energy, the core ppi (excluding food and energy) fully meets the expected conditions for a rate cut.

How is that?

High ppi data and eur rate cut yet eurusd going up.... Doesn't make sense to me!!

Stop saying what you don't know.. so you don't mislead people... this isn't a good PPI. Hope you can see the market going down??

The Feds never consider predictions. They only refer to existing data.

yep looks like no rate cut this month