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  • #7,461
  • Apr 2, 2023 8:55pm Apr 2, 2023 8:55pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
wow Pete, you missed the whole point :/ Brain: the Author words dismissing math. Eyes: charts posted using math measuring. "As if we decide for brain over eyes then why do something that might reduce thinking which is a total brain exercise." that's the point of my question, if math help reduce thinking and probabilities and make it easier to win in trading, "brain exercise" would be irrelevant. anyway, in my years of trading, every time I hear "probabilities" from someone, I know for a fact that they don't know "direction"....

Crikey Kwt, that'll be a first ()

While maybe it was you who missed the point, possible ?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14382249

Read the post again. And the attached short four page pdf.

The headline comment was kev's.

The author mainly discusses probabilities AND which must clearly be maths based, yes ?


While your own comment "for a spar lol" separates probabilty somehow now into certainty.
If this "possibility" OF CERTAINTY of direction can occur then please explain why the million dollar quants at Renaissance can only achieve a 51% strike rate based on
trade direction.

This certainty that folks offer has not yet been shown, while many claim its possibility.
AND
If we assume (which I am happy to do) that Directional Intent is possible.
THEN
we need to ask ourselves a simple question.

Why can't this be done visually. with our eyes & brain, and without MATHS ?
  • #7,462
  • Apr 2, 2023 9:21pm Apr 2, 2023 9:21pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} wow Pete, you missed the whole point :/ Brain: the Author words dismissing math. Eyes: charts posted using math measuring. "As if we decide for brain over eyes then why do something that might reduce thinking which is a total brain exercise." that's the point of my question, if math help reduce thinking and probabilities and make it easier to win in trading, "brain exercise" would be irrelevant. anyway, in my years of trading, every time I hear "probabilities" from someone, I know for a fact that they don't know "direction". cheers,
Funny because "every time I hear a trader dismiss probabilities I know for a fact they dont grasp trading as of yet"
"Successful traders focus on probabilites and process not outcome"

Ohh and dont quote me on that...Thats Tom Hougaards quote.... I tend to agree with him and the other vast
majority of professionals who all deal in probabilities..

All the best !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,463
  • Apr 2, 2023 9:55pm Apr 2, 2023 9:55pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Crikey Kwt, that'll be a first () While maybe it was you who missed the point, possible ? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14382249 Read the post again. And the attached short four page pdf. The headline comment was kev's. The author mainly discusses probabilities AND which must clearly be maths based, yes ? While your own comment "for a spar lol" separates probabilty somehow now into certainty. If this "possibility" OF CERTAINTY of direction can occur then please explain why the million dollar quants...
lol Pete, Kev was quoting from the pages "All excerpts from the Book"

I AM certain that probability does not exist when reading the market correctly, I explained direction many times in my posts.

Renaissance Tech is the research department, the fund is "Medallion" and it's pegged at $10 Billion not million.

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and no one know how their models work or what their rate's.

but one thing for sure, they are the only fund in history that charge 5/44 for management/performance fees, all other funds can not compete with them. that's how you evaluate funds.

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"Why can't this be done visually. with our eyes & brain, and without MATHS ?"
I did explain this (with charts as always), but your answer was, you scalp the Asian session and don't have the patience to wait.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,464
  • Edited 10:12pm Apr 2, 2023 9:59pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Funny because "every time I hear a trader dismiss probabilities I know for a fact they dont grasp trading as of yet" "Successful traders focus on probabilites and process not outcome" Ohh and dont quote me on that...Thats Tom Hougaards quote.... I tend to agree with him and the other vast majority of professionals who all deal in probabilities.. All the best !
I'm fine with you agreeing, but I hope it's ok if I don't agree

while you quoting others, I'm using charts to prove my points.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,465
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:22pm Apr 2, 2023 10:22pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
Renaissance Tech is the research department, the fund is "Medallion" and it's pegged at $10 Billion not million. {image} and no one know how their models work or what their rate's.

Hi Kwt,
I know the Jim Simons story well, a beauty, and just imagine their profits if the quants there could only obtain a higher strike rate than 51% on trade direction.


and not always good at the top
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-simons-2022-1

But I sure would have liked to invest (it was staff only then) back when they got on a roll. But the horses kept me in some food lol.

There are so MANY readers here Kwt and I am NOT pushing you mate, but another poster claimed to have Bankerts Intent Knowledge but for some reason NO the results did not stack up from what he posted. The last two weeks exactly 50/50 as I tested what he told his followers, yep 50%.

So you can understand that folks would like (NOT not you I mean) for someone to explain this secret certainty of trade direction.
You do understand they are talking the Holy Grail so a bit churlish imho to tease folks when no one yet believes them at this point.

BUT THEN.

That is not the discussion, which is "maths".

Maths as we know is formula, at some point, but this does NOT EXIST as an entity that can be seen and touched, this "maths" thing I mean.

At some point an individual must look with their eyes at a chart, or DATA from a chart, and use their brain to program what data they feel is valid into the final maths "output" whatever form that takes, an indi, an EA, you get the idea.

So when someone uses their eyes & brain to develop something later, via maths, they still used their "eyes & brain" to do this.

The maths therefore, well in my mind, is NOT the answer it was merely the facility employed to arrive at what their eyes & brain saw in the first place.

So, again, and I acknowledge that you are a long-term trader, as you acknowledge I am a short-term trader,
to me it is the person and NOT the maths formulae that give the end result. Else ALL results would be the same from the "maths" users maybe.
And therefore logically why couldn't a trader still do that with their initial eyes & brain and without the Maths.

Why is the visual & thinking trader, who used the maths, less capable of seeing & thinking exactly the same thing without the maths.

Why would the same folks eyes & brain let them down totally if maths was not employed I always wonder?
  • #7,466
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:52pm Apr 2, 2023 10:52pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Kwt, I know the Jim Simons story well, a beauty, and just imagine their profits if the quants there could only obtain a higher strike rate than 51% on trade direction. and not always good at the top https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-simons-2022-1 But I sure would have liked to invest (it was staff only then) back when they got on a roll. But the horses kept me in some food lol. There are so MANY readers here Kwt and I...
Please Pete, the "eyes & brain" was used for the "Jankovsky" post, repeating it would be mocking me, I would rather keep the respect between us and stop posting here if that's what you want.

with that said, every thing about the market is based on math, indi's, algos .... , but I always talk about measuring math and correct use of the indi's math.

there is nothing to argue here, markets has 2 directions UP/DOWN , if the market is going UP, why would anyone put a probability of a SELL ?

misreading the market make traders lose.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,467
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:59pm Apr 2, 2023 10:59pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
Please Pete, the "eyes & brain" was used for the "Jankovsky" post, repeating it would be mocking me, I would rather keep the respect between us and stop posting here if that's what you want. with that said, every thing about the market is based on math, indi's, algos .... , but I always talk about measuring math and correct use of the indi's math. there is nothing to argue here, markets has 2 directions UP/DOWN , if the market is going UP, why would anyone put a probability of a SELL ? misreading the market make traders lose. cheers,...

Not at all Kwt. And I am a visual trader as you well know.
To suggest that a trader cannot trade without maths, if that is what you are saying, is mocking also maybe.
I make no attempt to do anything but discuss in a manner which you originally called "sparring" so for you to take offense now I do not really understand.

Regardless, imho, maths does NOT exist until Trader employs it.
So in my mind (still, lol) the trading game is US vs US, regardless of trading methodolgy or any actions employed like maths to facilitate this.

Again, I think this is all just narrative-words, and we likely agree on the same thing, who knows anymore.
  • #7,468
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:35pm Apr 2, 2023 11:35pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Not at all Kwt. And I am a visual trader as you well know. To suggest that a trader cannot trade without maths, if that is what you are saying, is mocking also maybe. I make no attempt to do anything but discuss in a manner which you originally called "sparring" so for you to take offense now I do not really understand. Regardless, imho, maths does NOT exist until Trader employs it. So in my mind (still, lol) the trading game is US vs US, regardless of trading methodolgy or any actions employed like maths to facilitate this. Again, I think...
every trader use math in trading, whether they know it or not, so there is no mocking in that.

but I thought the sparring word is a joke between us to have fun!! now you made it offensive ?

so you did use the "eyes & brain" as a payback ?

well, I guess no point in posting here anymore.

trade safe all.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,469
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:44pm Apr 2, 2023 11:44pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
every trader use math in trading, whether they know it or not, so there is no mocking in that. but I thought the sparring word is a joke between us to have fun!! now you made it offensive ? so you did use the "eyes & brain" as a payback ? well, I guess no point in posting here anymore. trade safe all. cheers,

Come on Kwt, keep it real please.
You know your comment above is mocking, "every trader uses maths even if they KNOW it or not".


You could just as equally have said, "every trader uses their eyes AND brain, even if they know it or not"


You cannot find any common ground it seems
And your original words were "eyes OR brain",
you gave us the dilemma choice in your first post.

I replied lol, but why not use both eyes and brain. No dilemma just logic.

It's your choice to leave or spar, while I enjoyed it for the time it was and still wish to discuss your chart assessments of what you see the maths is providing you.
  • #7,470
  • Apr 3, 2023 12:01am Apr 3, 2023 12:01am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Come on Kwt, keep it real please. You know your comment above is mocking, "every trader uses maths even if they KNOW it or not". You could just as equally have said, "every trader uses their eyes AND brain, even if they know it or not" You cannot find any common ground it seems And your original words were "eyes OR brain", you gave us the dilemma choice in your first post. I replied lol, but why not use both eyes and brain. No dilemma just logic. It's your choice to leave or spar, while I enjoyed it for the time it was and still wish to...
nothing I say make sense to you, it's obvious by now.

why would I discuss my charts with you anymore ?

but this is for the thread members to give them a reason to go back and check my explained charts/posts if they want. I hope it helps.

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cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,471
  • Apr 3, 2023 12:06am Apr 3, 2023 12:06am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
nothing I say make sense to you, it's obvious by now. why would I discuss my charts with you anymore ? but this is for the thread members to give them a reason to go back and check my explained charts/posts if they want. I hope it helps. {image} cheers,

But what IS it that you are saying Kwt that doesn't make sense?

That you believe only a maths trader could be successfull in trading?

Do you have any belief at all that a visual trader can be successful,
or are you just saying that Maths works best for you.
  • #7,472
  • Apr 3, 2023 12:19am Apr 3, 2023 12:19am
My strike rate is better than Medallion, maybe I will be next MEDALLION!
LOL
  • #7,473
  • Apr 3, 2023 2:45am Apr 3, 2023 2:45am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} nothing I say make sense to you, it's obvious by now. why would I discuss my charts with you anymore ? but this is for the thread members to give them a reason to go back and check my explained charts/posts if they want. I hope it helps. {image} cheers,
Does what it says on the Tin
Do for me
  • #7,474
  • Apr 3, 2023 5:02am Apr 3, 2023 5:02am
Hi all,

Just one trade for me on GBP/USD. Got the input and guidance from Bluesteele just last week. As he says price moves in 3 steps. If u look closely, it was a measured move. Around 70 pips of each step. I saw it on 15 minutes chart. There was close to 30 odd pips stop hunt below the RN before the move up. I got out early though. 35 pips. Price hit my first target which was also close to 50% of the Fib. Who knows how much higher the price will go as there are targets to be taken. When and how no one knows. Happy with what i grabbed.
Trade Well All.
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  • #7,475
  • Apr 3, 2023 5:10am Apr 3, 2023 5:10am
Quoting whitesta
Hi all, Just one trade for me on GBP/USD. Got the input and guidance from Bluesteele just last week. As he says price moves in 3 steps. If u look closely, it was a measured move. Around 70 pips of each step. I saw it on 15 minutes chart. There was close to 30 odd pips stop hunt below the RN before the move up. I got out early though. 35 pips. Price hit my first target which was also close to 50% of the Fib. Who knows how much higher the price will go as there are targets to be taken. When and how no one knows. Happy with what i grabbed. Trade Well...
Nice trade. Well done.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #7,476
  • Apr 3, 2023 6:42am Apr 3, 2023 6:42am
My ONLY trade in the LONDON session (20+ PIPS).

BOS @ HOD.
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Same pair, same setup, one more trade (20+) in the NY session. LHF.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #7,477
  • Apr 3, 2023 8:55am Apr 3, 2023 8:55am
Quoting fxpider
My ONLY trade in the LONDON session (20+ PIPS). BOS @ HOD. {image}
Did no trades on Dax this morning. Price never broke pre open horizontal linesnes. But sp500 started off okay this afternoon ( USA Open)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #7,478
  • Apr 3, 2023 1:20pm Apr 3, 2023 1:20pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi all, Just one trade for me on GBP/USD. Got the input and guidance from Bluesteele just last week. As he says price moves in 3 steps. If u look closely, it was a measured move. Around 70 pips of each step. I saw it on 15 minutes chart. There was close to 30 odd pips stop hunt below the RN before the move up. I got out early though. 35 pips. Price hit my first target which was also close to 50% of the Fib. Who knows how much higher the price will go as there are targets to be taken. When and how no one knows. Happy with what i grabbed. Trade Well...
Beauty of a trade W ! Great setup and notice how that engulfing candle...engulfs the 1.2300 level as well as it's the new hourly candle so an engulfment of the "00" time and bringing in the hourly traders for that push in momentum ..

Well done again Whitesta

Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,479
  • Apr 3, 2023 1:22pm Apr 3, 2023 1:22pm
Quoting fxpider
My ONLY trade in the LONDON session (20+ PIPS). BOS @ HOD. {image} Same pair, same setup, one more trade (20+) in the NY session. LHF. {image}
More great trades Fxpider !!! Nice read in the change in structure and then the subsequent trades structure...that's some good trading !!!!

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,480
  • Apr 3, 2023 3:52pm Apr 3, 2023 3:52pm
Some nice trading folks, great to see.

Okay, first day of the New Month is near over & it seemed pretty much like business as usual.

Trade well, trade safe.


.
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