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  • #7,441
  • Apr 2, 2023 12:27am Apr 2, 2023 12:27am
We cannot expect mathematical models to help us if they also ignore the underlying structure of the market.

By understanding that most of our losses come from evaluating rather than observing,
we can take a quantum leap forward in our placement of trades.

Winners are doing their best to think in probabilities, and they come to their conclusions from a
different stream of thought than do losers.

Winners are watching what is happening in an attempt to discern what is most likely to come next,
based on how well they can tell what is happening now.

Winners don’t want to predict prices; they want to know with as much clarity as possible what has
already happened. ***(hindsight becomes foresight If you see it often enough)***

Only then can they make a reasonable guess as to what will happen next. In short, winners are outthinking losers.

Trading is a thinking man’s game, not a mathematician’s game.


All excerpts from the Book: Time Compression Trading Chapter 14,,,, A great short insightful read

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Time Compression Trading Chapter 14 Thinking in Probabilities.pdf   41 KB | 528 downloads


My exciting Saturday night reading,,,,,

Cheers
Blue

BTW this is not a psychology book far from it....Just the chapter that really drew my attention
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,442
  • Apr 2, 2023 2:15am Apr 2, 2023 2:15am
There are 5 possible outcomes for your trade:
1. Breakeven
2. Small win
3. Small loss
4. Big win
5. Big loss

Eliminate #5 and you’ve just taken a big step forward.

Why do us retail traders FAIL?
The secondary answer is #5 and the primary reason behind #5 is:
You have to admit YOU ARE WRONG,,,,
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,443
  • Edited 3:21am Apr 2, 2023 3:02am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting bluesteele
There are 5 possible outcomes for your trade: 1. Breakeven 2. Small win 3. Small loss 4. Big win 5. Big loss Eliminate #5 and you’ve just taken a big step forward.
Why do us retail traders FAIL? The secondary answer is #5 and the primary reason behind #5 is: You have to admit YOU ARE WRONG,,,,

Hi Kev,
You must be in bed by now hahaaa. Your post shows me why it is so difficult reading some nonsense posted on other threads.

So spot on, any big loss start as a small loss - that is then allowed to grow.
But how would a small loss grow into that big loss.
Well ONLY if the trader thinks the market will turn back in their favour, when it just isn’t DOING that, as you can see clearly.

While as well as your own trade growing in DD the market may well ALSO have trapped many other losing traders on the hook and then the Market will
likely NOT let them go peacefully until some of them start to tap out & close at a loss.

To stay in the trading game, on any losing trade, imho you will either have to be the FIRST to close OR the LAST (if you have still have margin & equity okay lol).
No point tapping out in the middle of DD for a large SL.
Be the first (or the Last) to close as the market ain’t gonna stop chasing you into further DD in certain situations until they get what they want from the move.

Could it be TA for example that put any of your trades into loss. How could TA do that?
TA might indicate to YOU either a BUY or SELL (or stay out) is here.
While it is only YOU as the Trader that makes any decision which way you trade. YOU push the trade buttons, not any TA or other signal, just YOU.

And THEN for your trade to be taken, ‘someone’ must be taking the opposite position in the same move for price to move against you.
So AT any signal point (TA or other) where you see trader attraction, why not WAIT until direction is established first.
I am happier to miss the first 10-15 pips of a winning trade than sit on a loser into DD thinking “how the hell did I get here”.

YOU have full control over all your trade actions. Blaming TA or any tool is NOT being a trader. Take responsibility for all your own trading actions.
Nothing can mislead you (TA or other), what a ridiculous idea formed by poor mental acuity and likely a trader only looking for a scapegoat to a lost trade.
Only YOU can mislead yourself.

Up/Down, Yes/No, Trade/No Trade. YOU are in total control of that stage of a potential trade. Unless guessing for the sake of just entering a trade (FOMO).

Myself, why don’t I mind the concept of TA. And maybe WHY a trader should be MORE aware of certain TA areas imo is,
because it brings in MORE traders into that area for a prospective trade as many traders & counter-traders congregate AROUND signals or TA points
Both buyers & sellers will be there.

But HOW can that be, doesn’t TA only show ONE way of trading, either a buy or a sell, how can it show both. Well think about it.
Some traders might be buying, and if that is mainly the Retail trader, then ASK YOURSELF WHO will be taking the opposite sell trade right there, and why.
Once that concept is clearer, so may more of your trades be clearer.

And please don’t let anyone trick you into thinking that trading tools are to blame lol. It’s ALL on YOU in the long run.

When folks finally accept that trading in the markets is truly YOU vs YOU then it's you who must make the next positive step for yourself.
And as Kev posted. Close em early if you have to, the market might just be taking you for a very long grinding run into big DD on the very next trade.

Trade safe folks, trade well.

(and edit: this NOT psychology either, Kev, this is common sense)
  • #7,444
  • Edited 7:59am Apr 2, 2023 6:36am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting bluesteele
We cannot expect mathematical models to help us if they also ignore the underlying structure of the market. By understanding that most of our losses come from evaluating rather than observing, we can take a quantum leap forward in our placement of trades. Winners are doing their best to think in probabilities, and they come to their conclusions from a different stream of thought than do losers. Winners are watching what is happening in an attempt to discern what is most likely to come next, based on how well they can tell what is happening now....
Hi Kevin,

hmmm, I think you're looking for a spar, just don't make it a WAR. lol

all jokes aside, I've been trading the markets more than 2 decades, and before online charts I made my own P&F charts by hand. so, I know first hand what I'm talking about.

this is BTC measured from the close of 2020, before any price after it.

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this is GU measured from the first LL, before last LOW or current High.

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my question is: don't you think MATH will reduce THINKING and PROBABILITIES to a minimum ? (I believe in direction to remove probabilities)

whatever your answer is, I just want you to know, if the "Author" make his money from writing books, mathematicians make their money using MATH.

if you decide to put your faith in an "Author" instead of "applied mathematics", that would be your choice alone.

when trading markets of numbers, you can't approach it from "philosophical" ethics and ignore "Practical" ethics.

ps, this is MATH measurements to organize markets, not MATH algo to trade it.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,445
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:42am Apr 2, 2023 7:42am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
Hi Kevin, hmmm, I think you're looking for a spar, just don't make it a WAR. lol all jokes aside


Hi KwT,
NO sparring lol. It's 10.30pm where I live so I’m hitting the sack now lol, and where Kev lives its about 5.30am in the morning lol.

Now. Everyone’s an author, even all of US posting on here lol.
And unless a new Trader wishes to start from scratch and reinvent the wheel then all we can do is read & assess what “anyone/everyone” says imho.
And then use our own logic to disassemble what we have read to find maybe 10%, 20%, 30% ??? VALUE that we can spin around inside our own paradigms of how we see, interpret and read our own markets.

In the end I have come to the conclusion (after years on FF lol) that many of us are talking about the exact same thing but through our own narratives & lens of experience. That is maybe we ALL see things on a chart similarly but we wish to defend our own ideology of how we then express our views on chart trading.

Now, the quote Kev put up and I will let him answer in full as he awakens later and has a morning cuppa was …
-----
“We cannot expect mathematical models to help us if they also ignore the underlying structure of the market.”
-----
To me, that last part of the sentence was what I took from the sentence so I do not see any denigration of maths.
I have had similar discussions with a few traders elsewhere before that can turn sour as all I wish to ever say is not that there is anything wrong with maths, no.
Just that it is “not necessary for the way I trade”

(And I AM maths proficient, well from my horse-playing days hahaa, as back then I could calculate in my head changing from fractional odds to percentages and then summing the percentages in my head all while "looking blankly at a bookies board" so they did not know I was mentally counting lol, BUT I digress, again, hahaa).

When I look at YOUR OWN chart, of course, I cannot see your chart EXACTLY as YOU SEE your chart, if you understand what I mean.
Similarly I will look at the very SAME chart 4hr AND candles on My chart below and you likely cannot see the chart from my view.
Neither of us is right or wrong naturally.

So there is NO maths on my chart.
I call my Chart the Repetitive Market Mechanics & Market Behaviours (because they repeat , but it doesn’t make my chart the ONE way to approach trading).

From my chart I analyse and see the market roll over downwards on the 4th week in and THEN start moving towards and “taking out” the Swing Targets all the way down to the bottom, interspersed by a four week period of range trading possibilities, and then BOOM down to the bottom of the chart while lastly taking out
THREE WHOLE WEEKS OF A HERD LINEUP and, again in a ONE candle sweep.

That Herd Lineup in the middle of the chart is where, I imagine (and hope) MANY traders who believe in such things as permanent S/R would have expected a bounce up from the Herd Lineup Bottom AGAIN.

While those ONE candle takeout moves I have shown before imo are to ENTRAP buyers at that point and the one candle ensures many trapped will close or S/L out.

Then, at the bottom of the chart (PFL) the market goes through a day of inflection (range again) until the move back UP occurs.
And, just like the way when price was dropping, on the way back UP all the Targets which are clearly visible (ie all a trader needs to do is LOOK LEFT) then those Targets on the way up are there for the market to take out (in their own sweet time, often) on the Return Journey.

I have no difficulty anymore just seeing all this, but it took time.
I imagine there is a maths formula that could well calculate the return trip also, but as I can just SEE it, the maths as I say is not necessary for me
(but does not mean maths is not valuable, please).

Now why don’t I trade the whole damn lot, bottom to top and take home the cherry at the end in a one long trade TP.
Well that is NOT how I wish to trade (no ONE way to trade, and not one way is BEST is my mantra).
Plus on the 4hr charts it crosses over too many days, even weeks, for me, even many Sessions lol and I like to be flat on all trades before I finish for the night,
closed in TP and start afresh again the next day (no fomo - always another trade imho).

Whew.

So folks, please I accept all methods of trading to TP from others and only wish the same back to me from them .

Trade safe, trade well.

(The chart I put up explains TO ME alone everything the market does, and is doing. Each to their own. And all I have to do after that is avoid whipsaws or Fake’n’Flips and I am good to go in the sessions I trade, Asia & early London).

all the best Kwt
I enjoy your own charts very much as they always take me a little out of my comfort zone lol and that I believe is good for me


.
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  • #7,446
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:56am Apr 2, 2023 7:56am
Another Daylight saving reset for me. It's really getting hard to keep tracking.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #7,447
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:59am Apr 2, 2023 7:59am
Quoting fxpider
Another Daylight saving reset for me. It's really getting hard to keep tracking.

  • #7,448
  • Apr 2, 2023 8:24am Apr 2, 2023 8:24am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi KwT, NO sparring lol. It's 10.30pm where I live so I’m hitting the sack now lol, and where Kev lives its about 5.30am in the morning lol. Now. Everyone’s an author, even all of US posting on here lol. And unless a new Trader wishes to start from scratch and reinvent the wheel then all we can do is read & assess what “anyone/everyone” says imho. And then use our own logic to disassemble what we have read to find maybe 10%, 20%, 30% ??? VALUE that we can spin around inside our own paradigms of how we see, interpret and read our own markets....
Hi Pete,

YOU ARE looking for a spar even when it's late at night and you're tired. hahahaha

Kevin's post was about math, trading styles were not mentioned, so, the same question apply to you: don't you think (PROPER) MATH will reduce THINKING and PROBABILITIES to a minimum ?

I made a quick search about the Author "Jason Alan Jankovsky" and found his Bio, twitter, and videos.

all I found is, selling books, chartless twitter, and worthless hindsight videos. you can check it out if you want:

https://www.amazon.com/stores/author...a-f005c5af4d62

https://twitter.com/TheLionOnline

Inserted Video


EVRYONE in this forum (even 1 week traders) can make a better Job than him, I can't see why would anyone trust him, WORDS are cheap if not backed-up with SOLID proof.

at the end, I really didn't have to write this post, because the ball is in the members court, it's down to BRAIN vs. EYES . everyone read the Author words and seen the charts, the decision is up to them if PROPER math help reduce thinking and probabilities.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,449
  • Apr 2, 2023 8:37am Apr 2, 2023 8:37am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi KwT, NO sparring lol. It's 10.30pm where I live so I’m hitting the sack now lol, and where Kev lives its about 5.30am in the morning lol. Now. Everyone’s an author, even all of US posting on here lol. And unless a new Trader wishes to start from scratch and reinvent the wheel then all we can do is read & assess what “anyone/everyone” says imho. And then use our own logic to disassemble what we have read to find maybe 10%, 20%, 30% ??? VALUE that we can spin around inside our own paradigms of how we see, interpret and read our own markets....
Pete, by knowing you and everyone in here, I STRONGLY believe that you can write books, open twitter account, post videos MORE helpful and make MORE sense and MORE money than him
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #7,450
  • Apr 2, 2023 8:47am Apr 2, 2023 8:47am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} Hi Kevin, hmmm, I think you're looking for a spar, just don't make it a WAR. lol all jokes aside, I've been trading the markets more than 2 decades, and before online charts I made my own P&F charts by hand. so, I know first hand what I'm talking about. this is BTC measured from the close of 2020, before any price after it. {image} this is GU measured from the first LL, before last LOW or current High. {image} my question is: don't you think MATH will reduce THINKING and PROBABILITIES to a minimum ? (I believe in direction to remove probabilities)...
  • #7,451
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:42am Apr 2, 2023 10:42am
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,452
  • Apr 2, 2023 10:49am Apr 2, 2023 10:49am
Quoting bluesteele
{image} {image}
I am all about the 2nd one.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,453
  • Apr 2, 2023 11:09am Apr 2, 2023 11:09am
"The REAL secret to trading success
1) Know thyself
2) Amend thyself
3) Self analysis beats technical analysis
4) Know your markets
5) Set time aside to prepare yourself to deal with the part of your mind that 90% of traders fall victim to repeatedly
6) Trade only when you are truly ready"

"I think that many of the 90+% of people that lose money trading may very well have Excellent chart reading abilities.
They can read charts very well..."

"I truly believe what separates the 1% from the 99% is HOW they think when they are in a trade, HOW they handle their emotions when they trade"

"That is not to say that there is no merit.... to chart reading..Its an absolute must for my decision making, BUT that is only a SMALL part of the whole trading picture"


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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,454
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:06pm Apr 2, 2023 6:06pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote}
WORDS are cheap if not backed-up with SOLID proof. at the end, I really didn't have to write this post, because the ball is in the members court,
it's down to BRAIN vs. EYES .
everyone read the Author words and seen the charts, the decision is up to them if PROPER math help reduce thinking and probabilities. cheers,

Hi Kwt,
Hahaa, no sparring but I will respectfully disagree on a few certain aspects of your always honest posts.

Zen & the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, I think you said you read it also (maybe not sorry), but the FIRST thing anyone in trading or life should chew over is ...
Do not get trapped into a Dilemma.
That is, don't be forced into taking one side of any two sided discussion just to cast a vote, as then we are only seeking a personal populist outcome.

"it's down to BRAIN vs. EYES ."
The best traders I have spoken myself I noted used BOTH. Their eyes and their brain, why take sides ?
(not just YOU Kwt, but all traders)

"the decision is up to them if, PROPER math help reduce thinking and probabilities."
As if we decide for brain over eyes then why do something that might reduce thinking which is a total brain exercise.

And ultimately maths becomes a quicker way as substitute for both eyes & brain so we might as well just concede (lol) to AI where we don't have to do either.

I likee to read everything, and everyone, and as I said in a post above if I can add even 10% to my arsenal in trading from others, I shall.

But there's more ( sorry )
I ran a Simulator (over the weekends and still do quite often) where I speed up the candles much, much faster than real-time so I can drop template after template over some past dates that enabled a reduction of the (in)famous 10,000 hours of study time lol down to less then 2,000 hrs (maybe, hahaaa).

And I came to a personal conclusion, that when I thought about it, likely expalins everything in regards to the question of ...
WHAT WORKS in currency trading and what DOESN'T.
What I found (for myself that is) is every option we have of assessing our markets (incl indicators & maths & eyes/brain etc) provides about the same OUTCOME.
50% success.

Yep, everything we are "given" to work with in Trading I reckon, achieves around the 50% mark. Everything. I did the lot as best I could from generic trading tools, to looking at TA, PA and FA and the 'hidden secrets' that folks say they have knowing in advance lol the intentions of the market controllers and
again 50%

So if ALL OUR TOOLS we use to assess the markets provide around this 50% success then what is it that separates the overall winners from the losers in Trading.

And finally I/we come to the realisation that the only difference is YOU yourself.
A trader can now relax a little if winning while they may not even know it is THEM that did it.

While if losing a Trader can hopefully now step back & also relax and can STOP blaming their tools, their indis, their TA, their PA, their FA, etc and JUST say to themselves, if at best what they give me works around 50% of the time what am I NOT doing which might improve that percentage outcome.

(and while Kev showed one chapter of the AUTHOR that appealed to his knowledge & commonsense base, and which I understood from the Author also, there is a core chapter that hopefully gets ALL traders thinking as to what happens & where, but maybe I let clemmo over on his own Book Review Thread do the this)

So no arguments & no sparring from me, but TRADER is the key in the end imho while using both their eyes & their brain together.

I love your charts Kwt. One day maybe we can discuss on this thread your interpretations (historcially) as your charts were forming in the past. No predictions.
From seeing & understanding your assessments from the past will help me better when looking at them in the future.

I listen & acknowkedge everybodys opinion as I'm hoping always to find for myself another hidden gem they may tell or show us .
  • #7,455
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:10pm Apr 2, 2023 6:10pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} Pete, by knowing you and everyone in here, I STRONGLY believe that you can write books, open twitter account, post videos MORE helpful and make MORE sense and MORE money than him

Hahaaa, are you having a dig at me or him lol I enjoy your humour Kwt cheers pal.

In regards to your suggestion above. Will NEVER happen.
I really just enjoy myself and the mental exercise of watching and analysing currency moves on one pair
(and trading them, of course)

Trade well, trade safe folks, the new week AND month begins (many levels are now reset & waiting).
  • #7,456
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:25pm Apr 2, 2023 6:25pm
Quoting bluesteele
"The REAL secret to trading success 1) Know thyself 2) Amend thyself 3) Self analysis beats technical analysis 4) Know your markets 5) Set time aside to prepare yourself to deal with the part of your mind that 90% of traders fall victim to repeatedly 6) Trade only when you are truly ready" "I think that many of the 90+% of people that lose money trading may very well have Excellent chart reading abilities. They can read charts very well..." "I truly believe what separates the 1% from the 99% is HOW they think when they are in a trade, HOW they handle...

There it is Kev on that graphic in your post.

43 million trades assessed.
62% winning trades.

So whatever the method of trading whether it be TA PA FA Maths Indis News etc etc most losing traders had positive outcome trades.
So what went wrong?
Well the stats show the traders held their losing trades into a greater loss than their winning trades.

So the industry that we trust with our cash lol suggest to us the solution to our problem is to hold our winning trades longer hahaaa.
Makes perfect sense, right, and the industry wouldn't try & mislead us retail traders would it.

BUT
What if we thought to oursevles about another and equally as obvious solution, by using a just little Lateral Thinking
WHAT IF
We kept our same successful TP take profit decisions that we employ now.
AND JUST
closed our losing trades earlier.

Same outcome, and we don't have to change our successful (TP) trading method.
JUST change your losing trade mechanism and Close Losers Earlier.

Each to their own in this dog eat dog world of currency trading.
  • #7,457
  • Apr 2, 2023 6:38pm Apr 2, 2023 6:38pm
The Opening Gap on GJ has been closed very early in the asia session. Now we can get down to normal business lol.
  • #7,458
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:23pm Apr 2, 2023 7:23pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} There it is Kev on that graphic in your post. 43 million trades assessed. 62% winning trades. So whatever the method of trading whether it be TA PA FA Maths Indis News etc etc most losing traders had positive outcome trades. So what went wrong? Well the stats show the traders held their losing trades into a greater loss than their winning trades. So the industry that we trust with our cash lol suggest to us the solution to our problem is to hold our winning trades longer hahaaa. Makes perfect sense, right, and the industry wouldn't try &...
62% Ya dont say !!! Not too shabby,, A guy can make alot of money with a 62% WR !!!
But yet for some reason at the end of the day the average size of average Trader Joes losses are near double their wins.

So obviously money mgmt. is a problem and if one wants to delve into why that is,,,
first thing I suggest is look in the mirror and realize its you.... Thats the first step.

Reminds me of Jim Simons Medallion Fund,,,,its returned 66% or so over 35 yrs !! and what is their WR on the trades within the fund.
It has been pegged at a 51% WR,,,which leads me to think they control their losses very well and really leverage their winners.

That simple old adage "cut your losses short and let your profits run" holds true yet for 90+% of us is so difficult to do.
Which was also Richard Dennis's of Turtle Traders fame modus operandi. He heavily added/pyramided his positions.
It has been said that 95% of his trades were losers... Think about that and the Mental strength to deal with that WR

So yes US retail traders with 60+% WR and we just cant make it work!!!!! ... Tough pill to swallow when all blame falls on you.

All I got for now,,,,chart time

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #7,459
  • Apr 2, 2023 7:40pm Apr 2, 2023 7:40pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} 62% Ya dont say !!! Not too shabby,, A guy can make alot of money with a 62% WR !!! But yet for some reason at the end of the day the average size of average Trader Joes losses are near double their wins. So obviously money mgmt. is a problem and if one wants to delve into why that is,,, first thing I suggest is look in the mirror and realize its you.... Thats the first step. Reminds me of Jim Simons Medallion Fund,,,,its returned 66% or so over 35 yrs !! and what is their WR on the trades within the fund. It has been pegged at a...

Well there you go again Kev, nice find regarding Medallion.
a 51% strike rate
I did hear Jim also himself mention this 51% figure once in a podcast, though he also said the 51% was a certain 100% (99.9999999) to happen for them.

They employ all the million dollar babies too, quants, physicists, as well as astologers Jim said, and had access to banks of supercomputers (Crays back then)
and yet retail can possibly obtain a slightly higher strike rate than the quant gurus can.

There are logical reasons for this of course, retail trade more like speedboats comparatively to the hedges & Institutions that operate more like slow moving ocean liners with slower turns but ALSO the Big Guns have plenty of other issues like getting set on trades at the PRICE they want for all their billions.

Tough game for everybody it appears.

Trade safe, trade well.
  • #7,460
  • Apr 2, 2023 8:31pm Apr 2, 2023 8:31pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Kwt, Hahaa, no sparring but I will respectfully disagree on a few certain aspects of your always honest posts. Zen & the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, I think you said you read it also (maybe not sorry), but the FIRST thing anyone in trading or life should chew over is ... Do not get trapped into a Dilemma. That is, don't be forced into taking one side of any two sided discussion just to cast a vote, as then we are only seeking a personal populist outcome. "it's down to BRAIN vs. EYES ." The best traders I have spoken myself I noted...
wow Pete, you missed the whole point :/

Brain: the Author words dismissing math.
Eyes: charts posted using math measuring.

"As if we decide for brain over eyes then why do something that might reduce thinking which is a total brain exercise."
that's the point of my question, if math help reduce thinking and probabilities and make it easier to win in trading, "brain exercise" would be irrelevant.

anyway, in my years of trading, every time I hear "probabilities" from someone, I know for a fact that they don't know "direction".

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
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