Most volatile EU/GU/XAU/BTC trading

Guys i hope i do not spam you too much, i just wanted your opinion about "hedge" ans "SL". If i say sth stupid it is OK to tell me so.

Your'e working on a project that has no bearing on your ability to pay your rent / mortgage this month.

Go for it

No, it is not stupid to ask questions or to post some ideas. It is great.
But, if I study some idea I always try to ask myself question: WHY?

Example. You tell me that you are using SL. Then please tell me how you calculate it? As I see you "feel" it. When you said that you are placing it on forex using "support" and "resistance" levels or "levels of liquidity" then for me it is equal "I feel so", because there are no data on forex to make that decision. If you said that you are placing it 1/2 or *2 from your TP, then my question is why your TP placed there? And why 1/2 of it is good for SL? And there will be no direct answer with math and statistics.
Or you (not meat you exactly) tell me that you are using orderbook data to see the "liquidity". But this is all bullshit, because orderbook is the list of limit order, but they are not a liquidity. Liquidity are market orders hit the market and stops, but not the limit orders. And I even not talking that there are no such a data on forex ever even if you think you see it.
By the other hand I say that I'm not using SL. Because a) I know how it works and b) I have tons of statistics that say me that there are no positive expectation of using SLs.
So. What to discuss then? Feelings? Dreams? Magic? What exactly?

For example I can say that my approach in trading using volume, distance and cost per lot works perfect. It gains profits. Why? Because it has math and common sense under the hood.
Also my deleverage logic works good as well, much better than static TPs approach I used later. Why? Again because of math and common sense. Market works this way and there is no need to reinvent the wheel. But hedging is not working for me. I said many times: I failed to use it properly because of lack of math. I think it is possible, but it is too complicated for me for now.

Another example is RickM's approach to look at the CME data to trade it on forex. It makes sense. Because forex is just a mirror of real market. And it just replicate the real trades. So if you found the source of data then you have the data. If not then all you do is gambling and guesswork.

Math is everywhere

For example. Do you know that min lot size on forex is 0.01, yes? And max leverage is 500x. Yes or yes? Yes.
Okay. And 1 lot = 100 000$. Then 0.01 i is 1000$. True? True.

But on crypto leverage is 50x. And min lot size for doge is 0.09$, so it is 9$ if compare with forex.

Then please tell me is 1000$ vs 9$ a big difference or "hey, who cares"?

How the heck NO F ONE CALCULATE IT? But they say that fees on forex are lower. Aha, yes. But 100 times more risk is nothing, not worth talking about it? Yeaaaah in wet demo dream for sure.

People with poker faces posting their "successful" strategies (how to average the average on average version # 9999999) - but no one has ever been able to pick up a calculator in the years of successful trading but they know how to draw colored lines! Colored lines? Are you kidding me? That is so funny.

Use math. Turn your brains ON. And only then you can jump into the real success (no guarantees).

It is true, i think that my choice will be - radical tightening of stop loss + super fast BE, just after momentum push (trigger)

I should ask than. Do you use SL at all ? I know RickM uses tight SL.

100% - multiple take profits aka "scalling out".

Thanks to RickM i use Sierra with CME data for USD. In future i plan also EUREX data for other FX crosses.

I try to follow only executed volume - this is "following the money"

I do not understand one thing. Who cares what other traders do - paint lines, watch the moon, use magic fibonacci or harmonic animals? Let them have fun

One story which change my view on human cognitive abilities:
In the recent history of my country Poland there was an airplane accident (2010 year). Polish president with 95 people in official delegation died in airplane accident in Russia. The plane fell from 25 metres to the wet mud ground, while landing. The official explanation of Russia and polish traitorous government was - the plane with speed 300 km/h touched old dead tree (30 cm diameter), and... the wing was damaged. The plane crashed into 60 000 pieces, bodies were partitioned like meat in butcher shop.

Explosives material like TNT(some particles detected) were found in huge amount , locations on the plane, crash site.

To this day - no less than 80% 90% of people believe it was an accident.

Conlcusion: People are driven by cognitive biases and emotions. Let them be

Once RickM said "I myself prefer measuring expansion of price as an alert then study volume / delta looking to nail the entry point for taking low drawdown trades."

Could you tell me how do you measure expansion - did you mean measured move (100% of AB measured from C) ?

Food for soul

I'm trading this way: when bot met some conditions it open the trade. Then it place TP at some pre-calculated distance.
If price go to the profit it will close part/all with market orders, or it will close with limit TP. If price move opposite it will add more and the do the same.
When position size will reach 1x then bot will stop working. It will stop adding more and send message to telegram like "hey dude, take a look, shit happened".

Why and how I should use SL here? How it is possible to determine it? And why I should take a loss? This is questions I have no answer.

Next big big thing it that I'm trading ONLY using bots. And I just can't allow it to close in loss. Because even 1 small issue or mistake in code and I can lose everything. I posted once when my teammate in late 2017 lost more that 10k$ in few seconds because of wrong code.

Now what to do it your position has 1x? It depends on many things. For example I have 20% profits already and my position is 1x, price already +1% that mean I'm losing 1% + fees. So I can run "emergency bot" and it will start closing it using limit orders. Why use market stop loss? Limit orders are cheaper and the bot can close all your position in seconds. Or, I can just place stop loss at some level (but in fact I'll never do it manually since it make no sense).

Thank you.

Interesting situastion on EU. After first news-driven push today, there should be a second leg of push. Instead continuation was slow and as of now price is in the top 1/3 of the range of first push. At the same time - Delta was heavily bullish. It looks like an absorption took place. All bullish momentum of send leg was eaten.

Of course that is no reason for any guessing whats next, but absorption took place - absorption with Delta visualisation seems easy to spot.

What is the frequency of the market?

The market acts like a Sine Wave where price is either in the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere for 50% of times. Now I sound like BWilliams and to agree we both worked on similar strategies.
You will find the frequency is very close to a X Linear Weighted moving average so I scrapped all the mathematics and just used a LWMA on a time frame that I found produces that 50% balance.

The measure of expansion I use is the distance travelled away from core frequency. I then can use the Delta to find the switch point where it reverses back to the mean and collect the money somewhere near the mid point in the chart.


Cheers

It is similar to Standard Deviation Channel - as long as this channel is anchored in some logical consistent way.

I think that we all miss the point a little. Let me explain more.

How you calculate your deviation (channel) etc? You are using OHCL data - in fact only close values is most cases.
But what is close value of the candle? It is already AVERAGED data. Candle = indicator. It average everything inside it and give you just what was the price at some time.
But here are are trying to learn volume, delta and the things around it. And it has nothing in common with candle close data.
So in fact you are trying to answer the question how market moved using only time and price!
As for me the distance is very good indicator. And it can be used to answer the question where to place TP or stop. But it can't say you about market. There are ton of examples on the market every day where can see tight distance with huge volume and vice versa.
The problem of volume trading for most "traders" is that is in impossible to analyze it using standard instruments. We must replay the record to see what happened. Candles are useless and all the ohcl indicators are useless too.

Similar ideal, however you need to spend a week (or a year) find the points where data / price sits 50% in each Hemisphere.
This is market frequency which I can tell you is the same result for every forex pair I tested over a two year period.

Actually USDJPY was 1 second off for some strange reason.

I talked about some of this stuff in the "Flying Dutchman" thread and before themn in the "Real or Algo" threads.
As I banned in them both because Moodybot doesn't like me because I upset his good mate BWilliams (Actually he stabbed BWilliams in the back recently to prove he isn't a friend you would go for a drink with in a dark alley) - have a read of my posts if you really want to get bored shitless.

Understood i just try to put what RickM said in some mean reversion perspective to confirm the concept. I could say overbought and it would also be only "typology"

The other thing is i cant find information on "distance" as you calculate it.

sure i will, thank you.

just reading - wow (!)

"I see the market as a Fabric that has three dimensions - Density, Weight and Space."

"Sentiment of the markets are just a ruse to get traders to provide liquidity to meet their objectives."