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  • #2,281
  • Edited 4:32am Jul 11, 2022 4:08am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting whitesta
Hi BWilliam, Could you please elaborate on why GBP/USD trade that Mixedbag was a good one. I mean GBY/JPY had broken Fridays high and then there was rejection before the price fell. As for GBPUSD just had the RN rejection. Was it the clue that price would go down or there were some other signs. Any input will be much appreciated. Regards
The clues were already there on the chart last Friday.

G$ NY session push up Friday was intended for target1. That push is not even close to the Asia session high. Price is not near pwol - compare this to GY. E$ expected to continue to trade towards parity. And most important price traded below dol early Asia market - that's the cue. Mixbags trade is rock solid.

Now you understand why I asked the question early Asia session.

Here's the thing, those are the past. Where's the easy trade in the future today?

Guys, I posted a lot of real time market thinking. Keep watching and I repeat, always ask "at what point do you know..." Time to stop posting. Cheers

Edit - Notice I don't mention any indicators or any typical FF jargons.
Know what you trade
  • #2,282
  • Jul 11, 2022 7:53am Jul 11, 2022 7:53am
is the Previous Close Prices is the true Price ?
The Settled Price that determines the Open Price of the Next bar ?

market will judge.
  • #2,283
  • Edited 9:45am Jul 11, 2022 9:02am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting whitesta
Hi BWilliam, Could you please elaborate on why GBP/USD trade that Mixedbag was a good one. I mean GBY/JPY had broken Fridays high and then there was rejection before the price fell. As for GBPUSD just had the RN rejection. Was it the clue that price would go down or there were some other signs. Any input will be much appreciated. Regards
Hi whitesta, to complete and summarise everything I wrote. The important things are the open/close lines that tell you everything. G$ fell 150pips from the open right in front of your eyes yet traders can't see. GY fell almost 150pips from the high yet traders were tricked into believing it rise. Will it stay below pwol, that's the question for GY? That's why the close line is the most important line which shows how MSpro traders close the value of the currency pair.

Don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. And don't allow other people give you their understanding - look with your eyes, think with your brain. There's nothing magical. Cheers. Trade well, trade safe everyone.

Quoting whitesta
Just not getting through yet. A bit frustrated cos just not seeing or understanding what you are trying to show. Appreciate your guidance, i am just not having that aaahhh moment yet. Regards {image}
I bolded what's important. When you understand completely what I wrote repeatedly you get your aha moment.
Know what you trade
  • #2,284
  • Jul 11, 2022 10:21am Jul 11, 2022 10:21am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi whitesta, to complete and summarise everything I wrote. The important things are the open/close lines that tell you everything. G$ fell 150pips from the open right in front of your eyes yet traders can't see. GY fell almost 150pips from the high yet traders were tricked into believing it rise. Will it stay below pwol, that's the question for GY? That's why the close line is the most important line which shows how MSpro traders close the value of the currency pair. Don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. And don't allow other people...
Hi Jason,
Just a quick question if u don't mind. Do you accept the open/close price of your chart's broker as acceptable or do you double check with other sources?
I think GJ last week is a good example with a very tight open/close. I see some price sources showing a close above the open, while others show the opposite. This does not make for good analysis. I'm presuming it's important. How does one obtain an "official" open/close price in forex?

Regards
DM
  • #2,285
  • Edited 11:26am Jul 11, 2022 10:52am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi whitesta, to complete and summarise everything I wrote. The important things are the open/close lines that tell you everything. G$ fell 150pips from the open right in front of your eyes yet traders can't see. GY fell almost 150pips from the high yet traders were tricked into believing it rise. Will it stay below pwol, that's the question for GY? That's why the close line is the most important line which shows how MSpro traders close the value of the currency pair. Don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. And don't allow...
in other words, it mean open line and close line always act as target line for the day ?

or, open/close line 'always" act as median line, so price movement must come back to the mean and away from the mean (previous close line ) ?

or is it about magnitude from two previous close line (the price range betwen TWO previous close line thats most important) ?

what if, the truth find on the price range of fractal close line. Its ALL about PRICE RANGE but based only on CLOSE price ? is this true ?

fractal price range based on previously monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 15 minute close line ? maybe

is the close the only truth we have as trader ? Is the close and the open are ONE ? is the delta between open and close also important ?

how do I mitigate and manage risk ?

is it possible we can be close friend someday or at another day we become close enemy ? while on the Bermuda ocean

at Flying Dutchman deck ?

sorry folks, i must close my mouth here !!!!

Thanks BW
  • #2,286
  • Edited 11:37am Jul 11, 2022 11:10am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Hi Jason, Just a quick question if u don't mind. Do you accept the open/close price of your chart's broker as acceptable or do you double check with other sources? I think GJ last week is a good example with a very tight open/close. I see some price sources showing a close above the open, while others show the opposite. This does not make for good analysis. I'm presuming it's important. How does one obtain an "official" open/close price in forex? Regards DM
Hi DM, yes there's always some gap between the close and open line that cause a headache. I always chose the close line then compare it with open line and with a few brokers. If there's a large gap I take note during the new day and zoom out to see context then decide which make sense. Idk what's the "official" open/close line.

Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} in other words, it mean open line and close line always act as target line for the day ? or, open/close line 'always" act as median line, so price movement must come back to the mean and away from the mean (previous close line ) ? or is it about magnitude from two previous close line (the price range betwen TWO previous close line thats most important) ? Thanks BW
Hi Dean, The open/close lines tell you one thing only - whether market value the currency pair above or below it. That's what we want to know before it happen or as it happen.

Lets say we know that market will value GY at the close above pwol then this knowledge creates a trading opportunity for us. Or another situation when market switch value from above to below the line vv. Or price will not rise above or drop below a certain open/close line. These are the kinds of situation that give us the edge to trade the market accordingly.

As example, lets say when market pushed north Asia session and you know somewhere today market will dip below dol, then how will you trade the arrow on whitesta GY chart? Did whitesta know when he drew that arrow?

This happen so often everyday right in front of our eyes yet we do not see. Price don't rise because of oversold indicators(oversold doesn't mean undervalued). It happens because market decides to move the undervalued currency and pro traders are buying, so keep a watchful eye on the open/close lines. By the time the conditions of the market has changed it's too late for the trader to take advantage. Read carefully open/close lines.

And look at the clock to see how much time left to make that move. Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #2,287
  • Jul 11, 2022 11:36am Jul 11, 2022 11:36am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi DM, yes there's always some gap between the close and open line that cause a headache. I always chose the close line then compare it with open line and with a few brokers. If there's a large gap I take note during the new day and zoom out to see context then decide which make sense. Idk what's the "official" open/close line. {quote} Hi Dean, The open/close lines tell you one thing only - whether market value the currency pair above or below it. That's what we want to know before it happen or as it happen. Lets say...
nah, adding new mindset to my trading brain arsenal ... my new CONTEXT indicator plus my new edge before 'follow no-one'.
Ciao
  • #2,288
  • Edited 12:31pm Jul 11, 2022 11:56am | Edited 12:31pm
One of you clever guys in here (bluesteele I think it was) used to talk about what I call Observably Large Candles (I think he had a similar name), but it's not a subject that's been talked about lately. Any reason for that?
  • #2,289
  • Jul 11, 2022 2:14pm Jul 11, 2022 2:14pm
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} nah, adding new mindset to my trading brain arsenal ... my new CONTEXT indicator plus my new edge before 'follow no-one'. Ciao
I think you guys are asking some of the right questions that I wished I should have asked BW early last year. But over this period the research and time spent on the charts has also benefited me. Ask and go back to the charts - and most importantly as George would say, be boundless... At times I used to think BW and George are the same person considering their vast knowledge and experience and one can see how much time and effort they put to what they know today (priceless). Lots of respect for other traders too - moodybot, TimeTells, GEfx, mixedbags, etc.
  • #2,290
  • Jul 11, 2022 9:59pm Jul 11, 2022 9:59pm
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} At 4:30 mark in the attached video he states how he does it. No volume. But he trades BIG bucks up to $3000 per point (pounds actually but my keyboard has not a symbol for that). Not endorsing his style but thought it might serve some purpose in the what is real debate. Cheers... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rit2StHKEI0
After my usual asian session trade, I tried out Tom Hougaard's scalping -

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8107UeP.png Size: 32 KB

not the best. Will observe more about his strategy tonight during US session.
  • #2,291
  • Jul 11, 2022 10:44pm Jul 11, 2022 10:44pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} After my usual asian session trade, I tried out Tom Hougaard's scalping - {image} not the best. Will observe more about his strategy tonight during US session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JF4ryf4.png Size: 14 KB
Maybe you can see why I stop the scalping.
RN lines
percentage lines
H4 (1st 4 hours) lines

nothing but lines cos LINES do not lie like volume and delta.
  • #2,292
  • Jul 11, 2022 10:54pm Jul 11, 2022 10:54pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} {image}Maybe you can see why I stop the scalping. RN lines percentage lines H4 (1st 4 hours) lines nothing but lines cos LINES do not lie like volume and delta.
Great post!!! MB showing how it's done and cutting right to the heart of the matter...

You hit the nail on the head !! LoL...isn't it blatantly obvious... Lines are price..fixed hard data.. open closes highs lows round numbers.fixed data that does not change. Day after day of fixed hard duplicatabke data.

And what else is hard unwaverabke data.?? Oh I know..
TIME ... There are times to trade and not to trade....trade when the market moves...

The simplicity lays in front of our eyes..but everyone is out chasing the latest buzz..because they think there is a magical indicator like delta lol...

Way to many overthinking it all...

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,293
  • Jul 11, 2022 10:59pm Jul 11, 2022 10:59pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} TIME ... There are times to trade and not to trade.... Cheers Blue
need I say more
  • #2,294
  • Jul 11, 2022 11:07pm Jul 11, 2022 11:07pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi DM, yes there's always some gap between the close and open line that cause a headache. I always chose the close line then compare it with open line and with a few brokers. If there's a large gap I take note during the new day and zoom out to see context then decide which make sense. Idk what's the "official" open/close line. {quote} Hi Dean, The open/close lines tell you one thing only - whether market value the currency pair above or below it. That's what we want to know before it happen or as it happen. Lets say we know that market...
Hi BWilliam,

I have learnt on this thread that open and close lines (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) are very important to set up trades. Also RNs, High and Lows (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) and the other targets which we mark ourselves like HLs, LHs. At times price plays around the daily open line during Asia session by moving above and then coming down a few times. That makes it hard to understand which target will be hunted first, the one above or below the daily open. The GBP/JPY sell trade which i took yesterday was cos there were two thrust or long downward candles at Frankfurt open showing downward momentum. The target could have been the previous weekly open or the the next marked target around 163500 RN. Also there was the peak formation high. Not sure if these were enough but those were my reasons. I am still trying to learn how to probably trade hourly or 4hr chart and look for major targets and which way the price will go after daily open. Longer time frames is more suited to me as i can check charts around my normal work and not easy to trade late London or US session from NZ so it would be good to learn longer time frame targets and place trades which may last a day or two. Appreciate the help we are getting from experienced traders here. Thanks again for the guidance BWilliam.

Happy Trading All
  • #2,295
  • Jul 11, 2022 11:21pm Jul 11, 2022 11:21pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} {image}Maybe you can see why I stop the scalping. RN lines percentage lines H4 (1st 4 hours) lines nothing but lines cos LINES do not lie like volume and delta.
Nice one. Thanks for sharing.
  • #2,296
  • Jul 11, 2022 11:36pm Jul 11, 2022 11:36pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Hi Jason, Just a quick question if u don't mind. Do you accept the open/close price of your chart's broker as acceptable or do you double check with other sources? I think GJ last week is a good example with a very tight open/close. I see some price sources showing a close above the open, while others show the opposite. This does not make for good analysis. I'm presuming it's important. How does one obtain an "official" open/close price in forex? Regards DM
DM, I find the open changes according to timeframe. Notice a 1 minute is different to a 5 or 15 min open? Not always but most of the time. So I only pay little attention to the open line. But I've learned from this thread.
  • #2,297
  • Edited Jul 12, 2022 12:35am Jul 11, 2022 11:40pm | Edited Jul 12, 2022 12:35am
Let me explain the reason why I wrote don't scalp.

Ofc we can scalp the same way we swing trade.

Lets say the average scalp result is 5pips. And in a 5hrs session there are 10 average number of trades.
5pips * 10trades = 50pips

We know that among these scalp trades one might turn out to be a 50 pips runner.

My reasoning is why work to be correct for 10times instead of focus on working for this one trade.

The other aspect is the risk reward ratio.
Lets say the scalp trade has a 10pips stop loss.
The swing trade has a 15pips stop loss.

in the case of the scalper it's 10pips risk for a 5pips profit,
whereas the swing trade it's 15pips risk for a 50pips profit.

This is the reason why the win rate ratio is important to scalpers.

Other things about scalpers is they use hedge.
And they cost average.
And the scalp signals come fast and continuous.

Whereas the swing trader take his fixed stop loss,
look for the next trade several hours later.

The psychological pressure on the scalper on a bad day make him go tilt.

It can happen to the swing trader too, but if he does it right the next trade is few hours later which allow him to cool down.

For the intraweek trader who aim to trade 1 trade a week, his stoploss can be 30-50pips with a few hundred pips for profit target.

The exposure to risk of ruin is much less to the scalpers 10pips and a lot less to the seconds delta scalpers.

That's why earlier I wrote a post, do the trader make his money from pips or from high leverage to meet his profit goal?

Besides all the above, the cost of trades in terms of commission and slippage is larger to the scalper.
This limits the choice of currency pairs suitable for scalping which may not be ideal to trade on certain days.

I'm not saying scalping is bad(ofc there are great skilled scalpers too), but the trader can only do well when he focus on one approach.

Scalping may not suit personality type who easily go tilt.
Part-time traders who trade after a long tiring day may not be as sharp as required and he may have a bad day in office. A bad session does affect the day in office.

When traders chose scalping at least be aware of the conditions that surround scalping when making this choice.

Cheers
Trade well, trade safe.

Ps when people talk about discipline, what it means to me is don't take low hanging fruit trades if the trade don't meet the criteria set. There's a hidden cost. Taking trades to "repair the account" or to "make up for a boring day" is a common practice.

Pps consider this, is it safer to be in and out the market for a few minutes with a 10pips stoploss say 20times a day, or in and out the market for 2-5hrs with a 15pips stop loss 1 time a day?
Know what you trade
  • #2,298
  • Jul 12, 2022 1:08am Jul 12, 2022 1:08am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} Hi BWilliam, I have learnt on this thread that open and close lines (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) are very important to set up trades. Also RNs, High and Lows (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) and the other targets which we mark ourselves like HLs, LHs. At times price plays around the daily open line during Asia session by moving above and then coming down a few times. That makes it hard to understand which target will be hunted first, the one above or below the daily open. The GBP/JPY sell trade which i took yesterday was cos there were two thrust or...
Hi whitesta, let me make the final post about value trading.

Yesterday, I pointed repeatedly to watch how the GY market close in relation to pwol. Look what happened today early Asia session.

Whatever you decide for yourself, consider all the facts that suit your individual needs and trading goal.

Good luck everyone. May you find the success you seek.
Know what you trade
  • #2,299
  • Jul 12, 2022 1:20am Jul 12, 2022 1:20am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} DM, I find the open changes according to timeframe. Notice a 1 minute is different to a 5 or 15 min open? Not always but most of the time. So I only pay little attention to the open line. But I've learned from this thread.
I don't understand that comment. Surely the open is a fixed number, it can't change just because you look at it in a different candle period?
  • #2,300
  • Edited 2:21am Jul 12, 2022 1:52am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting BWilliam
Let me explain the reason why I wrote don't scalp. Ofc we can scalp the same way we swing trade. Lets say the average scalp result is 5pips. And in a 5hrs session there are 10 average number of trades. 5pips * 10trades = 50pips We know that among these scalp trades one might turn out to be a 50 pips runner. My reasoning is why work to be correct for 10times instead of focus on working for this one trade. The other aspect is the risk reward ratio. Lets say the scalp trade has a 10pips stop loss. The swing trade has a 15pips stop loss. in the case...
Allow me a moment of indulgence. A scalp trade I did moments ago.

Update - I celebrated a 20pips scalp, BUT I lost a 50pips easy swing trade.

This is a live market example to explain why don't scalp.

The math says the count is -30pips loss. And if the swing trader keep executing lack of discipline trades he cumulates -30pips every time. Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GY 1.PNG Size: 7 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GY 2.PNG Size: 8 KB
Know what you trade
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Darryl