Cycle Trading

good day trading time/price cycles of the EUR/USD.

Hey csj check dms on forexfactory your old pal from the slack channel

Likely forecast that's going tp happen (Lucid Motors)
$LCID

Took some feb 18 22 puts $35. Top seems to be in today so should print.
#Cycle trading

completing a cycle.

Thought I'd pop in for my once every few years update. Currently short SP with credit and debit spreads. Deep ITM and now looking to condor these off since the weekly range is now in. Condor range will be super wide and nearly 1.5 times the HL weekly range. Price Time Cycle Forecast has been spot on. Overnight movement usually tips the hand on when to invert the forecast.



I haven't traded forex in any shape or form in ages. Will probably start watching USD/CAD to get in on oil correlated moves.

Current Gann Square/Fans going back to early Feb. Market has been reacting nicely at the vertical divisions. A move down on the next one?

Looks like March is my typical come back and post month, eh? Last post was almost exactly a year ago. Much has changed. Much has stayed the same.

Hello JR97, you don't know me but I know you very well; your posts on price-time squaring across multiple FF forums have helped me enormously in developing my trading methodology. You're among a small list of "internet mentors" that have made a difference in my journey and for this, I'm forever grateful. I would love to join your slack channel but don't know how slack works. Is there a way I can request to join?

A disciple who understands there is no fruit without labor...

Thank you for the kind words. I'm extremely happy that someone was able to get something out of my ramblings. I know the stuff is not the easiest to see let alone trade. And I know I veiled a lot of it. Part of that was to protect my work from showing up in commercial products (that has happened more than once) but also to dissuade people from just treating the concepts as the next shiny object only to lose money and then sh*t all over the concepts publicly. So to see that someone was able to implement the concepts into their own design and make that part of their methods is great to see.

The slackchannel is pretty much kaput. The activity trickled to non-existent and a lot of that was due to my inconsistency. My focus was mostly on 30-45 day options trades on SPX or SPY. Not exactly the kind of trading that required a lot of discussion.

However, I've recently gotten back to day trading and might get something going again. Maybe discord instead of slack. I'm now a funded trader for a futures hedge prop firm. I don't use a lot of the esoteric stuff as much, but a lot of the stuff I did use for price analysis that has been seen in some of charts I still use religiously. I'll post a discord link if/when I get one going.

Again, thanks much for your post and kind words.

That is cyclic then !

Indeed it is!

I was reviewing a lot of my trade history. I do have a tendency to take time off and resume in Feb/March. I also tend to have my best trading during this period. So I'm thinking after the end of the month I'll shut it all down again until next year. Quit while I'm ahead!

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Actually, I've pretty much transitioned into a full time trader now that I'm a funded prop trader. I always swore off trading for a living because I have had a tendency to get burned out. That was mostly trading currencies. Switching to S&P E-mini's was the smartest thing I've done for my sleep cycle.

Today's trade. I start by figuring out the buy/sell areas. My +-.5 deviation lines are more often than not going to be a bottom or the top of the day. NY open, price dropped straight to the -.5 and broke structure with a new higher high after that. Wait for the pullback and a higher low and fire away.

I'm not an ICT disciple by any means. But I love how he frames context. A lot of his concepts I was already using but when he explained the concepts, it made much more sense and was the missing ingredient for my consistency. I have much better entry targets now. When I see some of his stuff line up with my stuff it's a no brainer.

The first chart is a 5m. The wavy magenta line is my price-time forecast. Second chart is 15 min. I just look for discernable dips and peaks on the wavy. I bought the dip at the OTE level and exited the forecast wavy peak mainly from the 5m. You can also see on that forecast a double top at the higher high before it dropped to the dip I bought. My aggressive target is the 1.5 - 1.618 area which was also the +.5 deviation or 1 full deviation of movement. The avg amount of movement is 1.5 deviations. Price ran right up to the .75 deviation level. I wouldn't be surprised if price hits the +1.5 dev level. I don't know. Don't care. I got mine and I'm done for the day.

My conservative target is the 100 area on the 5m. and where my trailing stop hit. Normally I would have kept the trailing stop a little looser and held out for the 1.5 area, but the accounts I'm trading today are the last set of evals I'm allowed and I'm pretty conservative with these. I already have 14 evals that are funded. These last 6 will make it 20 funded which is the max amount I'm allowed funded.

A lot of prop firms use account trailing stops. The whole account trailing stop thing was tricky to figure out. I mean, the concept is simple. There is a $2500 account liquidation stop that trails Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) or highest account value whether it's realized profit or not. So technically, you could catch a monster $1500 move, mismanage the profit and only close out $750 of that. In profit terms, that's still pretty good. However, because of MFE, you lost $750 worth of cushion against the trailing account stop. In other words, you're $750 closer to the funded target but the zombies are now $750 closer. They only move forward. Never back. While you can sprint ahead as far as want but unfortunately can also sprint back and the safety gap to eval failure shrinks.

Thanks for replying and you're very welcome. Both sorry and disappointed to learn the slack channel is kaput but I'll be on the lookout if you get a discord up and running. One of the things I've realized about trading as a career is that once you get past the blood, sweat, and tears and find your trading groove, it's a rather lonely activity!

wow Jr is back!!! Still kicking it with your sq9 oscillator, let us know if you get the discord channel going.

Hello JR97 I was just reading some posts on Michael Jenkins and his various techniques. I do have an old version of Gann Trader that i am trying to get going again so hopefully that will be fixed soon . Not sure if Jenkins has a software program and the cost. I do remember reading about something that can be imposed onto the computer screen or a perspex cover that can allow one to draw compass circles and boxes with specific measurements onto the chart but cant remember the exact format or product. Did try to perform some basic measurements and calculations with the trading view platform but found the tools primitive at best and very cumbersome to work with so looking for another option . Tomorrow i will go through my old Gann Trader and reaqaint myself with the material. Any advice appreciated thanks

Sir, what is this name of this cycle indicator? Is there any way to get it?

Hello JR97 just wondering if you are still around , have tried to contact you via email. Regards Grant

When you look back at past cycles to try and determine which one the market is most likely running against sometimes you are presented with several dates say within a three to seven day window but locating the correct date out of those three can be quite tricky so I was wondering if anyone has any experience in this area thanks

Hi JR was wondering if you could assist me with some questions in relation to constructing a projection line. Do you use the wave59 software? I haven't used this before but have recently trialled the TS platform which is quite good. There are several ways one could approach this. Firstly there is the Bradley sideograph curve which uses the planetary aspects over a set period of time and are assigned weightings of +/- to determine which aspects or configurations produce a benefic or malefic influence then all of these values are summed together to produce a line. This was after Ganns time and in some cases seems to be hit or miss as markets can increase and top out on negative aspects and vice versa . the second approach in TS is to individually plot each planetary line both Helio and Geo and compare its direction against the position of the market - sometimes they are in sync and sometimes a different planetary line will either shift in or out of sync at different time points depending on what other factors may be at play. The third application involves the study of the declination cycles and examining the position of the market against Max Nth or Sth points and ecliptic crossings which can be a good directional indicator at times but not always accurate as other cycles may come into play. Any advice appreciated

Hi JR was wondering if you could assist me with some questions in relation to constructing a projection line. Do you use the wave59 software? I haven't used this before but have recently trialled the TS platform which is quite good. There are several ways one could approach this. Firstly there is the Bradley sideograph curve which uses the planetary aspects over a set period of time and are assigned weightings of +/- to determine which aspects or configurations produce a benefic or malefic influence then all of these values are summed together to produce a line. This was after Ganns time and in some cases seems to be hit or miss as markets can increase and top out on negative aspects and vice versa . the second approach in TS is to individually plot each planetary line both Helio and Geo and compare its direction against the position of the market - sometimes they are in sync and sometimes a different planetary line will either shift in or out of sync at different time points depending on what other factors may be at play. The third application involves the study of the declination cycles and examining the position of the market against Max Nth or Sth points and ecliptic crossings which can be a good directional indicator at times but not always accurate as other cycles may come into play. Any advice appreciated