EURUSD MT/LT
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Swing Trading only - All Markets
- #342
- Edited 2:48pm Sep 6, 2021 1:01pm | Edited 2:48pm
TA Wise, EURUSD MT/LT is bullish as hell as chart shows.
FA Wise :
=> A sharp move from May 2020 via the creation of EU Bonds-like (swing called live in this thread)
=> followed by a wide consolidation zone whose ebbs and flows were given by the evolution of the Covid situation/policies in the 2 zones, mainly :
1) a Vax/reopening leg in the US, 2) then a Vax/reopening leg in EZ, 3) then a CB Normalization leg in the US
... with 4) a CB Normalization leg in EZ yet to come potentially as early as next thurday's ECB
=> TA wise, that 4th leg would translate in drawing a W pattern at the top,pattern that is known to have the odds to blow its top via a momentum and merciless leg .....
=> FA wise, it's matching : EZ has catched up the US on all fronts. On some, overtaken. EZ is now ahead in the Vax campaign and in the reopening (WW too btw), macro are booming everywhere, labor shortage is everywhere (many major countries are back to pre-covid level on that front while the US is still short of several millions of jobs), wages are then mechanically up, inflation obviously too and above target...... and problem, that's the only ECB (limited) mandate ... Can not hide behind more Growth/Jobs like the FED ...
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In any case, in this TF (W1) :
=> 1.211x is the rain maker
=> below means markets still expect FED upcoming tightening to weigh heavier than ECB's one
=> above means markets expect ECB upcoming tightening to weigh heavier than FED's one
==> 1.211x ==> 1.245x ==> 1.272x ==> 1.319x is the MT swing .....
FA Wise :
=> A sharp move from May 2020 via the creation of EU Bonds-like (swing called live in this thread)
=> followed by a wide consolidation zone whose ebbs and flows were given by the evolution of the Covid situation/policies in the 2 zones, mainly :
1) a Vax/reopening leg in the US, 2) then a Vax/reopening leg in EZ, 3) then a CB Normalization leg in the US
... with 4) a CB Normalization leg in EZ yet to come potentially as early as next thurday's ECB
=> TA wise, that 4th leg would translate in drawing a W pattern at the top,pattern that is known to have the odds to blow its top via a momentum and merciless leg .....
=> FA wise, it's matching : EZ has catched up the US on all fronts. On some, overtaken. EZ is now ahead in the Vax campaign and in the reopening (WW too btw), macro are booming everywhere, labor shortage is everywhere (many major countries are back to pre-covid level on that front while the US is still short of several millions of jobs), wages are then mechanically up, inflation obviously too and above target...... and problem, that's the only ECB (limited) mandate ... Can not hide behind more Growth/Jobs like the FED ...
=========================================================================================
In any case, in this TF (W1) :
=> 1.211x is the rain maker
=> below means markets still expect FED upcoming tightening to weigh heavier than ECB's one
=> above means markets expect ECB upcoming tightening to weigh heavier than FED's one
==> 1.211x ==> 1.245x ==> 1.272x ==> 1.319x is the MT swing .....
TA Wise, EURUSD MT/LT is bullish as hell as chart shows. FA Wise : => A sharp move from May 2020 via the creation of EU Bonds-like (swing called live in this thread) => followed by a wide consolidation zone whose ebbs and flows were given by the evolution of the Covid situation/policies in the 2 zones, mainly : 1) a Vax/reopening leg in the US, 2) then a Vax/reopening leg in EZ, 3) then a CB Normalization leg in the US ... with 4) a CB Normalization leg in EZ yet to come potentially as early as next thurday's ECB => TA wise, that 4th...
Ok for that MT play but what says ST ?
How do we first go do that MT rain maker 1.211x ?
=> Well we simply need ECB to roll back to normal guidance to unlock the path, as FED did last June 16th.
No tightening facts, just tightening expectations, as FED. That will be enough to trigger the swing up to 1.211x.
We are 3 months later, and as seen as in the previous post, EZ has more than catched up.
TA wise, ST map is D1 Bottom 1.171x <==> D1 Flip 1.194x <==> D1 Top 1.222x
Price just need to sail above 1.194x to unlock the top of the range.
==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x is the ST swing .....
... 4) a CB Normalization leg in EZ yet to come potentially as early as next thurday's ECB ..... {image}
{quote} ..... Well we simply need ECB to roll back to normal guidance to unlock the path, as FED did last June 16th.....
Just to give the perspective why the odds of ECB normalizing its guidance at thursday's meeting (hinting hence upcoming tightening) are so high :
EURUSD H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTIGYBWtmcY 1.194x is the top of the range in this TF, but the flip/rain maker on D1 ................. {image}
For those who watched the EURUSD H4 video, Micro trade 1.183x --> 1.194x triggered to the tick
Expecting very few drawdown, if any
EURUSD H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTIGYBWtmcY 1.194x is the top of the range in this TF, but the flip/rain maker on D1 ................. {image}
as pointed in the video, 1.180x is the Flip on H4 ...=> EURUSD pulling back to the flip ahead of ECB, cooling all the indicators you want & ready for the next leg
{quote} For those who watched the EURUSD H4 video, Micro trade 1.183x --> 1.194x triggered to the tick Expecting very few drawdown, if any {image}
{quote} ... ST map is D1 Bottom 1.171x <==> D1 Flip 1.194x <==> D1 Top 1.222x Price just need to sail above 1.194x to unlock the top of the range. ==> 1.200x ==> 1.211x is the ST swing ..... {image}
- #350
- Sep 8, 2021 10:14am Sep 8, 2021 10:14am
- | Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,045 Posts
{quote}
still learning your way of trading , i have a sell opened from 1.19 and targetting 1.17900, but i'm slowly losing confidence, any ideas?
{quote}
Ok all fine for me.
Wrapping up ECB :
=> Statement : hawkish, shift in guidance
by slowing down PP
=> Macro Projections : hawkish via revisions up in GDP & Inflation
=> Q/A highlights : Mainly,
- walking on eggs, trying to downplay their tapering decision (trying to make the shift as smooth as possible for markets)
- but at the same time, talking about new taper discussions in October for a decision in December
Wrapping up ECB :
=> Statement : hawkish, shift in guidance
by slowing down PP=> Macro Projections : hawkish via revisions up in GDP & Inflation
=> Q/A highlights : Mainly,
- walking on eggs, trying to downplay their tapering decision (trying to make the shift as smooth as possible for markets)
- but at the same time, talking about new taper discussions in October for a decision in December