Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

AMENDMENT:
I used June 1st as a starting point for my back-testing.
But if I had entered a long there, I would have exited
at the vertical green line, which marks a new two-week low price.


Such an exit would have meant a loss, followed by a second
losing trade--a short entry just before the price went long.
But the Turtle Traders stress obedience to the system without
impulsive second-guessing.

So far, an entry after the circled high price is still profitable.

After Tueday's close, the chart looked like this:


N.B. I am limiting my focus to going long, although I did point out a four-week low,
which would have been a short entry point (according to the book).

I am hoping the price does not get stuck in a range.

After the close of trading on 18 August 2021...

Attachment 4016602
What chart is this? THEICE.com explains...

The Coffee C contract is the world benchmark for Arabica coffee.
The contract prices physical delivery of exchange-grade green beans,
from one of 20 countries of origin in a licensed warehouse to one of
several ports in the U. S. and Europe, with stated premiums/discounts
for ports and growths.

CRUDE OIL : THE BULLISH TREND STRONGLY DAMAGED.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

happy with these ones today #classicdaypivots JP225 + SP500

In this backtesting scenario,
we have still not reached our exit signal: a two-week low on the daily charts.
So we would still be long (if this were a real trade).

Attachment 4017694
I recently read this week that the pullback in the coffee rally was due to "concerns"
about unseasonably cold weather in Brazil.

Arabica Coffee Slips With Traders Weighing Brazil Frost Risk

Attached Image

What a difference a day makes! Now that I've been experimenting
with the tools on TradingView (my shameless plug for my charting
website), I've cleaned up my chart and expanding the scope of the
back-testing.

Now it's easier to see where the entry and exit points are.


I've now moved my starting point to the low of 31 March 2021,
which was 120.50.

AMENDMENT/CORRECTION:
I wasn't sure if I was following the system right, so I went and got out the
Google Sheets page and wrote out all the OHLC numbers from 17 Mar 2021
to the start of the chart. I wanted to be sure that I was getting the right
entry points for long/short trades.

Sure enough, I found that the price of $135.45 was reached again at
exactly 21 trading days after 17 March--16 April. That signals the
start of a new long trend, and we are supposed to enter a trade the next day
(i.e., April 17).

And, because it seems you can't have two images in one post,
or it'll use up too much memory, here is the requisite girlie pic.

Last Friday's low was 178.10 but was not an exit signal.
Out of the previous ten trading days, it was not a new low.

Attachment 4020192

There were in fact two lower prices: one is labeled on the map
(172.45). The OHLC candle after that still has a low of 177.55,
which is .55 lower than our 10th day candle.

After Monday's trading, the Aug. 9th candle is no longer
within the two-week trading range. The one for August 10th
is our lowest low, and it is not a fresh low. We would still be long.

After trading: Tuesday, August 24th:


I put two flags that mark the low prices for today (the 24th) and two weeks earlier.
Neither one represents a "new two-week low," so we are still long in this hypothetical
trade.

GOLD Medium/Long term outlook

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 25: Stagnant.


Well, the Turtles didn't promise excitement EVERY day...

Friday's close: 2021 08 27

N.B. In the Turtle Trading book that I'm using, there is a reference to a
filter rule that might change the way people look at this chart:

The Turtles ignored the System One four-week breakout signal if the
last four-week breakout signal was a winner. Even if they did not take
the last four-week breakout signal, or even if it was just "theoretically"
a winning trade, the Turtles still didn't take the System One breakout.
However, if the trade before a current four-week breakout was a 2N loss,
they could take the breakout ("N" was simply their measure of volatility,
discussed in the next section).

Since I haven't been keeping a chart of "N" yet for KC1, I will not dwell
on this yet.

Have a good weekend!

Monday, August 30, 2021.

The high price reached 200.20 on my chart today.

We are still long in this hypothetical trade.

SILVER

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Wednesday, Sept.1/2021:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

We are still long in this hypothetical, back-tested trade.

The two vertical black lines are ten trading days apart.
When you include weekdays, that's two weeks. If a new low
occurred on the 10th day, that would be a signal to exit
our long position.

Thursday Sept. 2/2021: Green arrows indicate "Sell and Sell Short" entries...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

One of my favorite books on trading is a "how-to" guide on trading by Dr. Alexander Elder
called Sell and Sell Short. If I had to summarize his approach, I would use this sentence
from Investopedia, which categorizes him as a "swing trader":

 

1. Swing traders generally trade within ranges, buying at support levels
2. and selling at resistance levels. Their trades usually last for the short-term.

In his book, Elder uses Bollinger Bands (among other indicators) to give the trader an idea
of where the support and resistance levels are. IIRC, the trader is supposed to buy when
the price pierces the lower Bollinger band, and exit (or sell short) when the price hits or
surpasses the upper band.

For comparison's sake, I added long greenish arrows pointing to places where one is
supposed to go short using swing trading. Some of those trades would be profitable,
based on the fact that they seem to retrace to the middle of the price range. But the
trade on the 20th of July would see the trader getting stopped out at a loss.