Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Friday, Sept. 3.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

N.B.: The prices in the little blue tags are entered by the computer and are not
always 100% spot on. If you look at the two black vertical lines on the right,
the one that says "191.20" should read "191.15," which is the actual low price
for that OHLC bar. Similarly, the bar that reads 179.95 should read 180.00.
These two prices are close enough for this illustration.

CBOT CORN

Maitain the same outlook

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

COMEX COPPER

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Tuesday Sept. 7.

Attachment g
The CME listing for "coffee C continuous" futures looks like this:


I think I've posted this before, but it's a good primer:
https://www.theice.com/products/15/Coffee-C-Futures

Wednesday, Sept 8: the "STOP LOSS" post.

Real Turtle Traders will tell you that they keep track of price changes in order to
calculate N, which is used as a measure of volatility. "N" has been described as
the 20-day exponential moving average of True Range.

Turtle Traders pick one of three possible values for "N":

1. The distance from today's high to today's low;
2. The distance from yesterday's close to today's high; or
3. The distance from yesterday's close to today's low.

One picks the value which is largest; negative numbers are converted to absolute
values (i.e., —17.50 is converted to 17.50). The largest of those three numbers
is the "N" for that day.

At the outset of each trade, a stop loss is placed 2N below the entry price if long,
or 2N above the entry price if short. This served to cut losses if the price doesn’t move
favorably after entry.

Attachment g

In the chart above, the July 6 low was a short entry. The price immediately
started to climb again, and, had I been consistently calculating "N",
Since I haven't been consistently calculating the value of "N", I haven't been
calculating the correct value of the stop loss which I should have placed above
that July 6 entry. I arbitrarily decided to exit my failing "short trade" at the same
time and price that I entered my second "long trade".

When I get the N values calculated, I will adjust the notes on the chart accordingly.

Thursday, Sept. 9: exit long #2.

Friday, Sept. 10, 2021.

I have rearranged my little speech bubbles on the chart
so that they flow a little better. Also, I arbitrarily put in a
note to indicate where the stop loss for our abortive short entry
might be. I haven't finished calculating the values of N for that
part of the chart yet, so placing the exact point of exit is a guess.

SILVER A.L.E.R.T update

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.

Updates:

1) I added the name of the coffee futures, KTZ1, to the chart, because the delivery dates
for these futures will have to be taken into consideration.

2) Since we have no open positions, the prospect of a short trade should be entertained.
Therefore I widened the gap between the two light-green vertical lines so that they now
cover a 20-day period, and if there is a new low formed, that would signal a short entry.


The lowest price in the past twenty days is actually 178.10, not 178.05. (The price markers
are only so precise.) So if the price dips lower than that in the near future, we will have a
short entry position.

Wednesday, Sept. 15.

We still don't have a short entry set-up.

Thursday, Sept. 16.


The chart is consolidating in a narrow range.
We still don't have an entry for either a short or a long.

Friday, Sept. 17.

What's wrong with this picture?

Attachment g
This is the first time I have drawn trend lines on one of these charts.
That's because the Turtle Traders do not recommend them.

From The Complete Turtle Trader, Ch. 5:


This rules out a lot of indicators, including trendlines, the Andrews
Pitchfork, the Gann Fan and even Bollinger Bands. (It certainly rules
out the Japanese cloud system.) The Turtles are trend followers,
not trend predictors.

Monday, Sept. 20.

Sooo close!

The two horizontal red lines on the right side of the price action
indicate the 4-week high and the 4-week low.

The lowest closing price in the past 20 days was on 23 August 2021.
(The tag is not 100% correct; Tradingview says it was 180.00.)
Tomorrow, the 20-day range will shift one day to the right, and the
20-day low will be 181.15.

Today's close was exactly 182.00, as indicated by the blue price note.
This implies that a short entry price is imminent, if price keeps dropping.

Tuesday, Sept. 21.

As with yesterday's chart, the horizontal red lines indicate the 20-day high
and the 20-day low.

The 20-day high is still the same; the 20-day low is now different from yesterday's
chart: it is 181.15. Today's low for the day was 182.35, which is still not
a new low; therefore, we do not have a downward trend, and we do not
have a short entry price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Wed. Sept. 22.


Got rid of the two red lines and put in price notes to mark the recent high
and low for the 20-day trading period between the lines. We still do not have
a new 20-day low for a short entry point.

Thursday, Sept. 23.

A pronounced upturn in the price of coffee futures.

Friday, Sept. 24.

A possible recovery in the upward trend?

Time for a girlie pic:

A repeat of yesterday's chart:


I put in some price lines for the two successful long short trades
that are suggested on this chart.

I did not indicate the short-entry loss because I haven't calculated
the precise value of 2N which would indicate our "bailout line."
But we have a rough idea where it is.