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  • #3,001
  • Mar 23, 2021 8:48am Mar 23, 2021 8:48am
Quoting heispark
LNG export is sustaining /NG price at the moment...... https://youtu.be/JUjVO8JN6tI
I can only conclude that there is a surplus of NG in the US that the local market cannot absorb so I expect the NG price to remain low.
  • #3,002
  • Mar 23, 2021 10:01am Mar 23, 2021 10:01am
Nat Gas is a choppy day so far today..... sooner or later, hopefully tomorrow, I expect to have a big move......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,003
  • Mar 24, 2021 7:58am Mar 24, 2021 7:58am
Quoting heispark
{quote} It happened again minutes ago. Obviously, you don't trade nat gas with IC Markets. It's a SCAM broker at least regarding with CFD. Very disappointing.... {image}{image} Edit: Other user reported the same spike: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13463116
Again today, minutes ago.......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,004
  • Mar 24, 2021 8:04am Mar 24, 2021 8:04am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Again today, minutes ago....... {image}{image}
Criminals are everywhere of every sort,the purpose and the only intention to looting/robbering every penny from everybody
  • #3,005
  • Mar 24, 2021 12:35pm Mar 24, 2021 12:35pm
Sold one contract of X21-Z21-F22 (Nov-Dec-Feb) butterfly at -0.038 just for fun.....
Quite safe trading and therefore its margin is only $100.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,006
  • Mar 24, 2021 8:10pm Mar 24, 2021 8:10pm
Quoting heispark
Personally I don't see good Nat Gas spread trading opportunities at the moment. Forward curve is somewhat flat..... I'd more focus on my day trading for the time being. {image}
Forward curve has been improved. I expect I find better spread trading opportunities from next month........ Spread trading is a cash cow to me.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,007
  • Mar 26, 2021 2:34am Mar 26, 2021 2:34am
Detrended Synthetic Price Oscillator

Another interesting indicator coded by Mladen and originally developed by John Ehlers......

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/17897
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File Type: mq4 Detrended_Synthetic_Price_goscillators.mq4   10 KB | 508 downloads
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File Type: zip Detrended Synthetic Price.zip   250 KB | 491 downloads
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,008
  • Mar 26, 2021 2:59am Mar 26, 2021 2:59am
/NG is heading to Daily 50 EMA and 4H 200 EMA. Many people are watching this......

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Reasons to short:
- Nat Gas is seasonally in down trend.
- 50 & 200 EMAs are well respected.
- Many people are waiting to reenter sell positions.

Reasons NOT to short:
- So many people are waiting this opportunity and Mr. Market may want to fuck them up.
- High LNG demand.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,009
  • Mar 26, 2021 7:43am Mar 26, 2021 7:43am
Quoting heispark
Detrended Synthetic Price Oscillator Another interesting indicator coded by Mladen and originally developed by John Ehlers...... https://www.mql5.com/en/code/17897 {image}{file}{file}
It looks like that the DSP indicator is a more smooth clone of the DPO indicator
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  • #3,010
  • Mar 27, 2021 7:57pm Mar 27, 2021 7:57pm
Something for weekend time killing...................
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,011
  • Mar 30, 2021 9:08pm Mar 30, 2021 9:08pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Fundseeder could become a Journalytix alternative. It supports Futures and directly receives trading results from brokers so people can trust posted performances. However, it doesn't support many brokers. AMP Futures is not supported while Advantage Futures is supported. When I move to Advantage, I may try it. If you don't care if they steal your IP, try it. It's free anyway. https://youtu.be/RcOj26M_-xA
This is from someone who ranked in top in Funseeder.com's leaderboard. His manual strategy performance is really impressive which even beats Renaissance Technologies'. That's my dream goal. You don't need to make successful trades each and every day (that's impossible I believe). 2-3 successful trades with reasonable leverage per month would be enough to meet that goal. The key should be focus and discipline I believe........
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https://fundseeder.com/trading_account/17211
(You need a free account to see this page.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,012
  • Edited 11:05pm Apr 1, 2021 9:03pm | Edited 11:05pm
McGinley Dynamic

The McGinley Dynamic looks like a moving average line yet it is a smoothing mechanism for prices that turns out to track far better than any moving average. It minimizes price separation, price whipsaws and hugs prices much more closely. And it does this automatically as this is a factor of the formula. Because of the calculation, the Dynamic Line speeds up in down markets as it follows prices yet moves more slowly in up markets. One wants to be quick to sell in a down market, yet ride an up market as long as possible. The constant N determines how closely the Dynamic tracks the index or stock. If one is emulating a 20-day moving average, for instance, use an N value half that of the moving average or in this case 10.
It greatly avoids whipsaws because the Dynamic Line automatically follows prices in any market fast or slow, it's like a steering mechanism that stays aligned to prices when markets speed up or slows down. It can be relied upon for trading decisions yet McGinley invented the Dynamic in 1997 as a market tool rather than as a trading indicator.
John R.McGinley is a Certified Market Technician, former editor of the Market Technicians Assn. Journal of Technical Analysis and inventor of the McGinley Dynamic. Working within the context of moving averages throughout the 1990s, McGinley sought to invent a responsive indicator that would automatically be more responsive to the raw data than simple or exponential moving averages.
In his research of moving averages which went much further than the basic examples already shown, McGinley found moving averages had many problems. The first problem was they were inappropriately applied. Moving averages in different periods operate with varying degrees in different markets. For example, how can one know when to use a 10-day to a 20- to a 50-day moving average in a fast or slow market. In order to solve the problem of choosing the length of the moving average that applies to the current market, the McGinley Dynamic automatically adjusts itself to the speed of the market.
McGinley believes moving averages should only be used as a smoothing mechanism rather than a trading system or signal generator. It is a monitor of trend. But a 10-day simple moving average is off by five days or half its length. Chances are good that the big move in prices already occurred by the fifth day of a 10-day simple moving average. In addition, a 10-day moving average should properly be plotted five days before the present datum.
Further, McGinley found moving averages failed to follow prices since large separations frequently exist between prices and moving average lines. McGinley sought to eliminate these problems by inventing an indicator that would hug prices more closely, avoid price separation and whipsaws and would follow prices automatically in fast or slow markets.
Source: Investopedia.com

https://www.barchart.com/education/t...ginley_dynamic
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m...ey-dynamic.asp
https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....46#p1295432046
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File Type: ex4 mcginley dynamic filtered.ex4   18 KB | 470 downloads

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  • #3,013
  • Apr 2, 2021 10:18am Apr 2, 2021 10:18am
Quoting heispark
McGinley Dynamic The McGinley Dynamic looks like a moving average line yet it is a smoothing mechanism for prices that turns out to track far better than any moving average. Source: Investopedia.com https://www.barchart.com/education/t...ginley_dynamic https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m...ey-dynamic.asp https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....46#p1295432046 {file} https://youtu.be/ALZcQYR7rRQ
This indicator that you posted is supposedly an improved version of the original. Here is the original and a chart showing how the original (yellow line) and the improved version (green/orange line). Not sure the improved version is better than the original but it's only a matter of choice.
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  • #3,014
  • Apr 5, 2021 9:18pm Apr 5, 2021 9:18pm
Why The Suez Crisis Failed To Disrupt LNG Markets

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...G-Markets.html
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,015
  • Apr 6, 2021 9:50pm Apr 6, 2021 9:50pm
Nat Gas forecast for this and next year is somewhat subdued..... You must be interested if you're a spread trader.

U.S. natgas output to rise, while demand falls for second year in 2021

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2BT2CO

(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as rising gas prices allow renewables and coal to take some of gas’ market share in the power sector, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 93.29 bcfd in 2022 from 91.36 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019.
It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.93 bcfd in 2021 and 82.07 bcfd in 2022 from 83.26 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019.
If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983.
EIA’s projections for 2021 in April were higher than its March forecasts of 91.35 bcfd for supply and 82.52 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast liquefied natural gas exports would reach 8.46 bcfd in 2021 and 9.22 bcfd in 2022, up from a record 6.53 bcfd in 2020.
EIA projected coal production will rise to 585.3 million short tons in 2021 and 601.7 million short tons in 2022 from 539.1 million short tons in 2020, its lowest since 1965, as power plants burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices.
EIA projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to 4.820 billion tonnes in 2021 and 4.938 billion tonnes in 2022 as power generators burn more coal. That is up from 4.571 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1983.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,016
  • Apr 6, 2021 10:26pm Apr 6, 2021 10:26pm
Hydrogen: From Hype to Sudden Reality

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  • #3,017
  • Apr 7, 2021 4:37am Apr 7, 2021 4:37am
Quoting heispark
{quote} It happened again minutes ago. Obviously, you don't trade nat gas with IC Markets. It's a SCAM broker at least regarding with CFD. Very disappointing.... {image}{image} Edit: Other user reported the same spike: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13463116

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,018
  • Apr 7, 2021 5:31am Apr 7, 2021 5:31am
Quoting heispark
Nat Gas forecast for this and next year is somewhat subdued..... You must be interested if you're a spread trader. U.S. natgas output to rise, while demand falls for second year in 2021.
More NG production while the demand is flat will only lead to a lower price. Short trades should get better results than long trades.
  • #3,019
  • Apr 9, 2021 9:27pm Apr 9, 2021 9:27pm
Quoting heispark
This is one example of RJ style trade. First, you need faster indicators with low overshooting. I don't know what indicators he uses. I use my own. And you want some dramatic event or surprising attack (V shape reversal, Pullback Candle Reversal Pattern, ... whatever you name it). When it breaks out, it's targeting certain obvious anchor points in which a bunch of stop orders are clustered. That's it. If PA hesitates, you cut loss quick and move SL to BE. That's all. You don't have control beyond this. Market rules the others. What I don't still...
Although I don't like RJ, his trading approach still has some values. Many traders tend to predict directions based on their own technical analysis such as trend lines, patterns or indicators. In my opinion, that's not very effective in this algo driven world with full of stop hunters especially when you're a day trader. When I trade Nat Gas, I am watching sudden and quick breakouts with heavy volumes and order flows during regular sessions. Such breakouts are usually very quick so if you are not fast enough, you won't be able to catch them. That means you need to watch PC monitors all the time when you trade. And I don't want to be too greedy. When such momentum slows down, I want to exit quickly, possibly leaving many chips still on the table. That's ok, having market exposure is a huge risk. Enough is enough. Usually, I may have 1 or 2 opportunities a day. It seems big market players adjust their books in this way. If you open a position when market moves slowly, your indicators are more harm than good. Slow market is very dangerous to trade as that's usually a trap. After such quick move's done, the market usually becomes slow and choppy until the end of the session.
A short weekend thought, or BS talk....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,020
  • Apr 9, 2021 10:29pm Apr 9, 2021 10:29pm
Quoting heispark
This indicator (made by Mladen) draws my attention... Choppiness Index https://www.forex-station.com/viewto...44#p1295360344 https://tradingsim.com/blog/choppiness-index-indicator/ {image} {file} https://youtu.be/PI7SqZe3lzY (see only timeline 13:30 - 20:00)
Another video about Choppiness Index:
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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