Hi,
lately I've taken to writing a sort of outlook for price action on daily bars and considering the effort that goes into it, I thought it was a shame nobody else got anything from it. I'm going to post todays example just to see if people think it's utter crap or if it gives them something to think about. It includes short term as well as long term outlook and I know very well that it is hybris as well as common practice to predict where price will go, but it is something that I strive to learn and master, so I can't really get any sort of negative feedback by posting this, as the fact that what I am doing will continue would remain unchanged no matter what. So I'm also free to share without regret.
Here's a sample, please feel free to comment on the style as well as the content. I'm aiming more towards a critique of the text and the content than hearing contrarian or alternative views(which doesn't mean you can't post those as well). I'm very much intrigued by the Analyst profession and a venture into this sort of territory, which is very much intermeshed with the speculative trader.
Edit: I am on GMT+2 so all analysis is based on my daily close at midnight which is EST 18:00.
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Outlook from day's end analysis, 27th September 2006
USDCHF
Bar: miniature bearish pin bar
Could possible be the end of a corrective wave up and the start of the next bigger wave down to 1.2200. 1.2470 would have to hold, below 1.2400 sees challenge of 1.2350 and 1.2290-1.2275 support.
Above 1.2475 retest 1.2550, then 1.2600 handle.
EURUSD
Bar:I4B
Below 1.2660 constitutes a retest of 1.2630 with a higher chance of breakthrough this time around, alternatively a move past 1.2740 again moves to retest and challenge 1.2830-40
We are currently seeing bulls and bears fighting for control over Euros direction and either of these interim key levels (1.2660 with continuation to ->1.2560->1.2460 vs 1.2830-1.2940) represents a toggle for a respective range boundary test of the 500 pip boundary of 1.2460-1.2940 we have been locked inside of since late April. We closed almost exactly on the 50% middle ground and this explains the indecision seen in the market, as forces are almost at an equilibrium lest there come a shift of balance soon.
EURJPY
Bar: bullish bar
Situation here is similiar to Euro. The range established since August from 147.50 - 150.70 holds and we are currently just a handful of pips above the middle and Price Pivot situated near/around 149.00
While over it look for a retest of 150 and the high, a fall below once again brings 147.70 into view and a break of that could mean a toggle back to 145 or even 140.
Short term: past 149.45 >> 149.80, then 150 and beyond, loss of 149 spells 148.50 and then lower
GBPUSD
Bar: malformed bearish bar
Situation is shaky as 1.8880 interim support has held for now. Loss sees a retest of 1.8740, under that 1.8625 and beyond that 1.8555. Should the established base hold and 1.8960 reclaimed, 1.9000 and a after 1.9080 a retest of the 1.9140 high and beyond might come back into the picture.
Considering the bearish bar and the breach of trendline a further drop is likely unless dollar sentiment turns bearish again.
USDJPY
Bar: Bullish
Having escaped the narrow confines of the 116.10-116.60 range, nippy has managed to claw its way back above 117 and now trades near 117.40. As long as 116.60 support/pivot holds, expect upside and a retest of 118, above 118.30 sees a chance to revisit 119. Be aware that this currency is very political even though influence lately seems to come more from the USD than from the BOJ and officials.
118.70 and 120 are possible fibonacci expansions while former fibonacci retracements and a trendline block the path to 117.70 for now.
AUDUSD
Bar: pin bar
AUDUSD has once again stubbornly rejected a move under 0.7500. It seems almost as if some bigger power is preventing moves lower with an awesome force. The pin is quite small however, but considering the time spent in the 0.7480-0.7580 range things are bound to heat up very soon. Gold back over 600$ will surely have done it's part to rebuild AUDUSD, so look to attempt an escape to the upside with stops at 0.7460, entry preferably at 0.7500 or 0.75490. Be nimble however if 0.7550 doesn't give way nicely things might be coming back fast. Past 0.7580 should have an extra 100 pips in it just as easily as a break of 0.7480.
NZDUSD
Bar: unsuccesful pin bar.
Kiwi has been mistreated any which way after more comments from officials about the hike being planned much later than the market had hoped. Former trendline resistance turned support pivoted matters back around on the first hit, however the decision for direction isn't made just yet. Bearish pressure from the day before with a bearish outside bar puts bears in the front seat and if 0.6530 and 0.6500 gives way, 0.6430 might be seen real fast. 0.6250s next real area of support below.
A move back over 0.6660 could give 0.6720 and above a second look.
EURCHF:
Bar: bullish outside bar, sort of.
EURCHF put in a very unconvincing move higher today and just barely exceeded 1.5800, falling short of 1.5820-30, an area of resistance. Failure to climb back over this level could mean a return to 1.5735 and beyond that 1.5625 and the more important level of support at 1.5500. Over 1.5850 gives way to a renewed attack at 1.5970 and finally the 1.5600 handle.
lately I've taken to writing a sort of outlook for price action on daily bars and considering the effort that goes into it, I thought it was a shame nobody else got anything from it. I'm going to post todays example just to see if people think it's utter crap or if it gives them something to think about. It includes short term as well as long term outlook and I know very well that it is hybris as well as common practice to predict where price will go, but it is something that I strive to learn and master, so I can't really get any sort of negative feedback by posting this, as the fact that what I am doing will continue would remain unchanged no matter what. So I'm also free to share without regret.
Here's a sample, please feel free to comment on the style as well as the content. I'm aiming more towards a critique of the text and the content than hearing contrarian or alternative views(which doesn't mean you can't post those as well). I'm very much intrigued by the Analyst profession and a venture into this sort of territory, which is very much intermeshed with the speculative trader.
Edit: I am on GMT+2 so all analysis is based on my daily close at midnight which is EST 18:00.
------------------
Outlook from day's end analysis, 27th September 2006
USDCHF
Bar: miniature bearish pin bar
Could possible be the end of a corrective wave up and the start of the next bigger wave down to 1.2200. 1.2470 would have to hold, below 1.2400 sees challenge of 1.2350 and 1.2290-1.2275 support.
Above 1.2475 retest 1.2550, then 1.2600 handle.
EURUSD
Bar:I4B
Below 1.2660 constitutes a retest of 1.2630 with a higher chance of breakthrough this time around, alternatively a move past 1.2740 again moves to retest and challenge 1.2830-40
We are currently seeing bulls and bears fighting for control over Euros direction and either of these interim key levels (1.2660 with continuation to ->1.2560->1.2460 vs 1.2830-1.2940) represents a toggle for a respective range boundary test of the 500 pip boundary of 1.2460-1.2940 we have been locked inside of since late April. We closed almost exactly on the 50% middle ground and this explains the indecision seen in the market, as forces are almost at an equilibrium lest there come a shift of balance soon.
EURJPY
Bar: bullish bar
Situation here is similiar to Euro. The range established since August from 147.50 - 150.70 holds and we are currently just a handful of pips above the middle and Price Pivot situated near/around 149.00
While over it look for a retest of 150 and the high, a fall below once again brings 147.70 into view and a break of that could mean a toggle back to 145 or even 140.
Short term: past 149.45 >> 149.80, then 150 and beyond, loss of 149 spells 148.50 and then lower
GBPUSD
Bar: malformed bearish bar
Situation is shaky as 1.8880 interim support has held for now. Loss sees a retest of 1.8740, under that 1.8625 and beyond that 1.8555. Should the established base hold and 1.8960 reclaimed, 1.9000 and a after 1.9080 a retest of the 1.9140 high and beyond might come back into the picture.
Considering the bearish bar and the breach of trendline a further drop is likely unless dollar sentiment turns bearish again.
USDJPY
Bar: Bullish
Having escaped the narrow confines of the 116.10-116.60 range, nippy has managed to claw its way back above 117 and now trades near 117.40. As long as 116.60 support/pivot holds, expect upside and a retest of 118, above 118.30 sees a chance to revisit 119. Be aware that this currency is very political even though influence lately seems to come more from the USD than from the BOJ and officials.
118.70 and 120 are possible fibonacci expansions while former fibonacci retracements and a trendline block the path to 117.70 for now.
AUDUSD
Bar: pin bar
AUDUSD has once again stubbornly rejected a move under 0.7500. It seems almost as if some bigger power is preventing moves lower with an awesome force. The pin is quite small however, but considering the time spent in the 0.7480-0.7580 range things are bound to heat up very soon. Gold back over 600$ will surely have done it's part to rebuild AUDUSD, so look to attempt an escape to the upside with stops at 0.7460, entry preferably at 0.7500 or 0.75490. Be nimble however if 0.7550 doesn't give way nicely things might be coming back fast. Past 0.7580 should have an extra 100 pips in it just as easily as a break of 0.7480.
NZDUSD
Bar: unsuccesful pin bar.
Kiwi has been mistreated any which way after more comments from officials about the hike being planned much later than the market had hoped. Former trendline resistance turned support pivoted matters back around on the first hit, however the decision for direction isn't made just yet. Bearish pressure from the day before with a bearish outside bar puts bears in the front seat and if 0.6530 and 0.6500 gives way, 0.6430 might be seen real fast. 0.6250s next real area of support below.
A move back over 0.6660 could give 0.6720 and above a second look.
EURCHF:
Bar: bullish outside bar, sort of.
EURCHF put in a very unconvincing move higher today and just barely exceeded 1.5800, falling short of 1.5820-30, an area of resistance. Failure to climb back over this level could mean a return to 1.5735 and beyond that 1.5625 and the more important level of support at 1.5500. Over 1.5850 gives way to a renewed attack at 1.5970 and finally the 1.5600 handle.
Trust price. Know yourself.