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Hold The Gold

  • #441
  • Jun 5, 2020 4:41pm Jun 5, 2020 4:41pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Swap costs are close to nothing. Gold used to offer like 2,000 pips in a year. Now is much more. Any basic hedging I use catches in between 40% and 80% of the max pips offered pithing the 12 months period. The method on the images shows, at it's peak moment, within April-May'20 only slightly over 110%. It collects more pips, than there are pips in the monthly candle's HL. {quote} Not at all. Hedging does not require any specific knowledge on the annual trend, although it inevitably shows the annual trend's direction quite clearly... So,...
Thanks for your detailed response. I'm not a same instrument hedger, although I have alot of experience with hedging different instruments together. Ultimately if you find a way to make something work for you which results in you making cash, then you've done very well.

cheers,
swd
  • #442
  • Jun 6, 2020 4:08am Jun 6, 2020 4:08am
Quoting MoneyZilla
Hedging works. Big time. Hedging is the most simple way to trade. However, it is very costly to get to the hedging simplicity. Speaking of time, money and efforts. I am familiar with the exact price... Now, I have been crucified here, for talking about hedging... Speaking of the past, now I do wonder... Which head is the prime candidate for a brutal brain operation, I am ready to deliver?�� I will post here three images. They worth more than...
OMG !
How fu#*@&# dumb I'AM! I should have seem this photo like months ago !! Wtf was I doing. You are totally Sensei MZ.
Thank you from the bottom of my soul

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The other time when this happens, is when the dynamic side of the hedge, resets

Is it not worth to reset daily?
  • #443
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:11am Jun 6, 2020 8:11am
Quoting Offujimori
{quote} OMG ! How fu#*@&# dumb I'AM! I should have seem this photo like months ago !! Wtf was I doing. You are totally Sensei MZ. Thank you from the bottom of my soul {quote} Is it not worth to reset daily?

No, you are not dumb. It is just a long and lonely journey to get there, very expensive meanwhile. You are doing fantastic. None here did what you showed me.

I have posted that image to hit few targets with one shot. First, the anti-hedgers, who know nothing, but talk only rubbish, because they can't properly hedge. Not enough brains, you know them... and you. To give you a glimpse only, where you should head to.

You know what I did, right? I ran the dynamic hedge. Only the one that has one week time offset. Which is just 50% of the whole hedge. On all pairs. 28 of them. For 2 months. Stupidly set a $10 target (over 100+ net pips). One trade per pair. Flat 0.01 lot. One trade only per a pair. It did 150-200 bucks of a draw-down for april-may (overall tight range on most pairs) and now is +200 due to the massive lift off almost everywhere... If it was not the stupid target, there would have been 400+ I estimate. Now, imagine, one hedge batch released weekly?

This 1/2 hedge, runs side by side with my other 28 pairs daily breakout check, you are well familiar with.

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Is it not worth to reset daily?

I have that instant reset. It is hard. The curve I have showed you, was from there. The instant reset. This one is like a millions times better...

Daily reset is hard as hell. Because, we have discussed this already with you, the chopping zones cannot be predicted and it is hard to nail the direction there without paying a high cost for doing that...

My worst case scenario estimates show a hedged pair to bring in the house about $100. In reality, it will be more like over $200 from a hedge from 1000 pips HL.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #444
  • Jun 6, 2020 9:23pm Jun 6, 2020 9:23pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} You know what I did, right? I ran the dynamic hedge. Only the one that has one week time offset. .
Yes I think so... I thought that because numbers of flips are way higher! Wich make total sense!
So nice.
So it's named "week offset". Notes taken!

Hey.. that profile photo should have a golden teeth edited!
Actually, you just inspired me. I love this image
  • #445
  • Jun 7, 2020 1:51pm Jun 7, 2020 1:51pm
Quoting Offujimori
{quote} Yes I think so... I thought that because numbers of flips are way higher! Wich make total sense! So nice. So it's named "week offset".

Accurate. Yes.

The weekly offset is required as a check point. Every week. Are we still going up? Yes? Next week, repeat, ext. Thus, locking down a hedge a week below the top, is not so bad... What is more interesting is the pips collection does not end with that...

Also, those check points, when the rate accelerates into a direction, for consecutive weeks, i.e. trending, the flips are minimal. It is just a real checkpoint only. Little pips are lost in there. Then, again, both trades face North. To collect double the pips. Lock-unlock-lock-ext. You do know about that..
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #446
  • Jun 12, 2020 6:53am Jun 12, 2020 6:53am
Please consider taking a look at my analysis, I just made a video about Gold Market.
I upload weekly analysis every Sunday and daily analysis from TUE to FRI.


Inserted Video
  • #447
  • Jun 21, 2020 5:13pm Jun 21, 2020 5:13pm
Hello everyone, I made a new Gold Market Update. I am expecting prices to move much higher and reach ATH. Please consider taking a look at my analysis and let me know what you think.


Inserted Video
  • #448
  • Edited 3:04pm Jun 23, 2020 2:45pm | Edited 3:04pm
Hi MZ, a million thanks for your idea's. I have never tested my IQ not sure, probably not interesting...anyway I wanted to post a chart to celebrate my first post. Hope it is clear, I have made an arrow for the SL theory....once this candle (EU 4H) was a big fat green one into a certain level, spread widening etc. allright enough said.
best M.
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  • #449
  • Jun 23, 2020 4:32pm Jun 23, 2020 4:32pm
Welcome Meyney. I can’t understand your arrow...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #450
  • Edited 5:20pm Jun 23, 2020 4:40pm | Edited 5:20pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Little pips are lost in there. Then, again, both trades face North. To collect double the pips.
Well, in my case a lot of pips are lost until finding the final destination.... An amount sometimes even bigger than the movement itself in pips.
Damn...

When I apply filters aka offset pip for example, I increase the size between signals thus resulting in a bigger flip cost.
And the end in similar.
Another option is waiting for an X amount of flips to happen and then go in.. But the con is that I might lose the movement that would heal the drawdown.
Damn it.
I'm losing my hair trying to solve it.

It's really really hard to reach the positive pips without adding new lots. Sometimes adding even make it worse in a small amplitude range.
This system is incredibly armored.

Shit hit the fan so hard in EURUSD 2016 (example).
1200 pips from top to bottom. A lot of flips...

MONTHLY CANDLE EURUSD 2016
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  • #451
  • Jun 23, 2020 11:03pm Jun 23, 2020 11:03pm
Quoting Offujimori
{quote} Well, in my case a lot of pips are lost until finding the final destination.... An amount sometimes even bigger than the movement itself in pips. Damn...
That can be correct. However, there are so many ways of getting it almost right? Almost is the key here. I could never make it work perfectly.

Think of different approaches that do create dominance on the chart? There are many inbuilt tools in mt4 you can use as a base. Even candles, just to give a hint of a such. Not that I recommend candles... but they can be used, still. The other option is the use of a sl, but you need a fair condition for the virtual trade to open and you are back in the same square...

You have a description of one of my chains. Check the trend lines positioning in there? I am sure this will help a lot to solve your issues in rate going behind your back? Careful with tl, these are mega deadly. You can’t stay with one set on ona place for too long. They will kill you. Sooner rather than later...

The key with tl is to dance around the chart. Never stay for too long with a set of tl. Move around and change positions. Then tl set is very helpful.

I have said it numerous times, this game is only about tops and bottoms, but nobody’s listening here...

Here is my latest version of tl indicator. I think it is bug free now.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RT Trendlines 1.42.mq4   32 KB | 735 downloads
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #452
  • Jun 23, 2020 11:30pm Jun 23, 2020 11:30pm
Quoting Offujimori
{quote} Another option is waiting for an X amount of flips to happen and then go in.. But the con is that I might lose the movement that would heal the drawdown. Damn it. I'm losing my hair trying to solve it.
That is a good one! To start with!
It won't solve your problem, but it will show you something important. Many are asking here for a range detecting tool...

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It's really really hard to reach the positive pips without adding new lots. Sometimes adding even make it worse in a small amplitude range.
Adding new instances or baskets is a must. But don’t increase their base lots. If you do, you are doing it wrong.
An example of how i use instances. An instance/basket can be negative on pips. Another one can be a little positive and few more can be positive as well. If their total net is positive? I am good to close all...
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This system is incredibly armored.
They square everyone with ease. You must explore, in depth, their balancing squaring system. All square sizes are universal. It’s amazing. Long term nothing can withstand the squares balance. Unless one has an access to the actual moneyflow data...

We are forced to trade blind. Cause we get nothing with these charts. Therefore, as blind persons, we need to develop other senses/tools, that are not obvious and easy to spot on the chart. As they want us to look at the charts and we should look deeper than that. We should look what is behind the candles? Although we can’t really see it. And when money change hands? They leave their fingerprints. That they cannot hide behind NOTHING...

When blind, other senses are developed. Ultra sound for picturing the surroundings. How the hell they could possibly stop one of doing this?

And when one knows about the squares? There are places to hide, while Packman does his job...

p.s. there is a broker/LP called Squared Financial. Give’em a call? Theymight know something, if names so dramatically accurate... for this business.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #453
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:23am Jun 24, 2020 5:23am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} That is a good one! To start with! It won't solve your problem, but it will show you something important. Many are asking here for a range detecting tool... {quote} Adding new instances or baskets is a must. But don’t increase their base lots. If you do, you are doing it wrong. An example of how i use instances. An instance/basket can be negative on pips. Another one can be a little positive and few more can be positive as well. If their total net is positive? I am good to close all... {quote} They square everyone with ease....
Hi MoneyZilla,

Having been reading and re-reading your thread since the last week, trying to decipher the hints and straws that you have thrown in throughout your posts in working out a profitable hedging strategy.

But I have not been able to and have been loosing sleepless nights trying to find the combination as to how to hedge profitably. You keep saying its simple and right there in front of our eyes and yet I have not been able to spot it.

Since you have mastered this technique you would feel that you have given enough clues and hints to find out the missing pieces in the puzzle but in this regard I have not yet succeeded in my attempts.

Any more explanations that you can give me to enable me to search and find the missing pieces ?

Can I send you a PM ? I hope it does not bother you .

Regards
  • #454
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:54am Jun 24, 2020 5:54am
Quoting DemandSupply
{quote} ... I have not been able to and have been loosing sleepless nights trying to find the combination as to how to hedge profitably.

Very good. That is the right way of getting there. My working week, since Aug 2014 is more like 70 hours weekly.

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You keep saying its simple and right there in front of our eyes and yet I have not been able to spot it.

It is embarrassingly simple, yes. The problem is we all think trading must to be complicated and therefore we can see it. It is a shame it took me so long. I guess it is all IQ issues for me.

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Since you have mastered this technique you would feel that you have given enough clues and hints to find out the missing pieces in the puzzle but in this regard I have not yet succeeded in my attempts.

Honestly speaking, I have lay down everything. I now regret I cant delete some posts of mine. Well, they are cross connected, along many treads, but are still there... I am telling you, low IQ is a huge issue. But it is also quite helpful, when simple things need to be spotted on, I guess.

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Any more explanations that you can give me to enable me to search and find the missing pieces?

1. Explore and find how to determine s dominant side. Million things do happen within a candle of any tf. And we cant see them with a plain eye. Regardless of the tf, a dominant side always is and you will know it is right when the rate falls away behind your back. This is a very long process. As there are zillion options to choose from. And some are really impressively good. While others are not so impressive, but still do the job.

2. Dominance requires frequent checks. Might be resets, might be clouds of checks, whatever suits you personally. That thing alone, autohedges without you doing anything special or know anything special.

3. There are layers of dominance. I cant be specific in there now. If you get to the dominance, you will notice something is incomplete and you will smell and see these layers. These layers are limited number, as layers disclose the square movement frequency of the price app in use that draws the chart.

4. The squares. These came first to me. When I saw them, I saw how impossible it all was and I have wasted 2 years minimum already. Just to meet with the squares. But I guess, I am speaking a language all don't understand. Squares are a nightmare to get to, in a first place. That is why I put them here last, as I think you still can make money without knowing about their existence...

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Can I send you a PM ? I hope it does not bother you.
I am here, because of my big ego, of course. But not really keen in opening the eyes of the curious traders. I give clues. If someone makes it, fine. Otherwise I don't really care... No offence here. I have been beaten quite a lot by people on the forum here, because I knew I will nail hedging and everyone was telling this ain't gonna happen. So I don't feel as a being a good person myself and all that kicks I took throughout the years? Not a helping person. Sorry.

Just keep in mind. Hedging is a gorilla war. Not a battlefield. You can't go big in there, as they will see it and then play against you. This is just gorilla war. Partisan war. If you make it there, keep it low on the lot and don't be greedy. After all, there won't be many traders like you anyway and that won't be a problem for your trading. As long as you stay low below any lot size radars.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #455
  • Jun 24, 2020 10:14am Jun 24, 2020 10:14am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Very good. That is the right way of getting there. My working week, since Aug 2014 is more like 70 hours weekly. {quote} It is embarrassingly simple, yes. The problem is we all think trading must to be complicated and therefore we can see it. It is a shame it took me so long. I guess it is all IQ issues for me. {quote} Honestly speaking, I have lay down everything. I now regret I cant delete some posts of mine. Well, they are cross connected, along many treads, but are still there... I am telling you, low IQ is a huge issue. But it is also...
Hi MoneyZilla,

Thanks for taking time out to reply in detail. As regarding the last para where you mention about opening the eyes of the traders etc, I respect your personal preferences and choices and dont question them at all. I accept what ever opinions and methods and hints that you have offered in this thread. This PM that I wanted to send to you, is not about asking you any particular methodology or strategy that you use, but to clear just two points wherein I seek a little clarity from you just to confirm if I am going in the right direction or wandered too much into the forest where I might just get lost. Except for those two points of clarity that I seek from you, its nothing other than that. Even under those circumstances if you do not wish to accept and reply to my PM, I would accept that as your personal choice and preference.

Thanks once again,

Regards
  • #456
  • Edited 11:36am Jun 24, 2020 11:05am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting DemandSupply
{quote} But I have not been able to and have been loosing sleepless nights trying to find the combination as to how to hedge profitably. You keep saying its simple and right there in front of our eyes and yet I have not been able to spot it.
If you read all posts since 2014 and then look at post #438 maybe you'll get it!
Or, if you are smarter than me which is not hard, just sit your butt 24h looking at post #438. Good start!
Plus, there's a golden post in 2019.

Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} That can be correct. However, there are so many ways of getting it almost right? Almost is the key here. I could never make it work perfectly. Think of different approaches that do create dominance on the chart?
MZ

Thank you for answers !
I was using candles 2 months ago.... Then I switched to ZigZag, and now Pivot Points.
That indicator, Pivot Point. There's something in it. I promise.
It establishes good prices to reset

Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote}Dominance requires frequent checks. Might be resets, might be clouds of checks, whatever suits you personally
Using Pivot Point monthly S1/R1/S2/R2/S3/R3 seems to be a nice point to reset.
  • #457
  • Jun 24, 2020 11:48am Jun 24, 2020 11:48am
Quoting Offujimori
I was using candles 2 months ago....
You will get back to candles. There is something absolutely amazing about them. But it comes sort of a last...
Quote
Then I switched to ZigZag, and now Pivot Points. That indicator, Pivot Point. There's something in it. I promise. It establishes good prices to reset {quote} Using Pivot Point monthly S1/R1/S2/R2/S3/R3 seems to be a nice point to reset.
Go down. Significantly. With the PP. I cant believe you can't see it?!?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #458
  • Jun 24, 2020 12:05pm Jun 24, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Go down. Significantly. With the PP. I cant believe you can't see it?!?
I'm going full banzai attack mode on Pivot Point.
hahahah I'll see it. But you know, It's harder to see things in my case... My eyes are tiny -- not only the eyes I guess. - That's what she said.
  • #459
  • Jun 24, 2020 12:06pm Jun 24, 2020 12:06pm
Oliver, when you do the dominance thing. Keep in mind, one directions goes for hours, usually for tens of hours.

Don't be so naive at every small correctional movement to shit in your pants thinking the rate is going to turn around.

They want you to think EXACTLY this way...

But you just remember about the hours, tens of hours, days, even weeks and months.

This will be helpful, if you find a way to use my reminder here...

Another time offset? Sort of? Just an idea? Trying to help you without disclosing too much of information...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #460
  • Jun 24, 2020 12:06pm Jun 24, 2020 12:06pm
Quoting Offujimori
{quote} I'm going full banzai attack mode on Pivot Point. hahahah I'll see it. But you know, It's harder to see things in my case... My eyes are tiny -- not only the eyes I guess. - That's what she said.
hahaha!!!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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