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  • #141
  • May 18, 2020 12:54pm May 18, 2020 12:54pm
Going to try a ST & MT play in EURUSD

ST play

pending long 1.086x TP1 1.097x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.075x (1:1 for TP1, 1:2.6 for TP3)

In others words, trying to ride a swing to the top of the ST range (pure TA move)

MT play

pending long 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x (1:1.4 for TP1, 1:5.3 for TP3)

In others words, trying to ride the full price in of FED's monetary policy (pure FA move)
  • #142
  • May 18, 2020 2:21pm May 18, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} In ES, decision to clear remaining shorts @ 281x was good. Since then, H4 wise: -> flow continued to move up, marking a break up @ 2833, before stalling at last reversal point @ 2851 -> that reversal point capped the flow and triggered a retrace to that same 281x -> but bulls managed at the end to hold the break up point @ 2833 Price is sitting now again at that reversal point @ 2851. {image}
ES has continued the move up today : reversal triggered on H4 (we have now a TA Bottom in this TF) and is now trading the top of the range.
That should be an area to look for shorts but however we can see on D1 chart that price is also trying to build a TA Bottom in this TF.
As soon as price takes back the breakdown @ 297x on D1 close, a test of 313x looks on the table.
Sideline here till markets solve that 297x.


ES H4 Map :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-h4-18052020.png Size: 67 KB


ES D1 Map :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-18052020.png Size: 76 KB


For the record, ES W1 Map :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-w1-18052020.png Size: 60 KB
  • #143
  • May 19, 2020 6:23am May 19, 2020 6:23am
Quoting Replicant
Going to try a ST & MT play in EURUSD ST play pending long 1.086x TP1 1.097x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.075x (1:1 for TP1, 1:2.6 for TP3) In others words, trying to ride a swing to the top of the ST range (pure TA move) MT play pending long 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x (1:1.4 for TP1, 1:5.3 for TP3) In others words, trying to ride the full price in of FED's monetary policy (pure FA move)
Not filled in EURUSD

Bad luck for the MT longs, entry @ 1.089x was missed by a few pips (low 1.0902)
That was the nearest break up, the more expensive entry, but buyers didn't even let it pullback completely to that point

I'm afraid this is what is happening :

Quoting Replicant
{quote}... Road is now open to (re)start to price in FED's monetary policy. We can have a parabolic move to the upside in EURUSD with only shallow retraces if markets decide to fully price in FED's open-ended purchases...
  • #144
  • May 19, 2020 7:46am May 19, 2020 7:46am
What leverage do you use for swinging? I bet it is variable, depending on the market/pair and its condition? Or is it a constant one?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #145
  • May 19, 2020 8:36am May 19, 2020 8:36am
Quoting auricforecas
What leverage do you use for swinging? I bet it is variable, depending on the market/pair and its condition? Or is it a constant one?
Well first, TA gives me my STP, then I ask myself how much am I confident in this trade, how much am I ready to lose on this one if I'm wrong, 100, 500, 1000, 2000.. ? That gives me the size of the position (hence why I trade CFDs for Stocks Indexes as it's more flexible). Only hard rule I have is that my risk in one trade can't be greater than 5% of total capital

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Not filled in EURUSD Bad luck for the MT longs, entry @ 1.089x was missed by a few pips (low 1.0902) That was the nearest break up, the more expensive entry, but buyers didn't even let it pullback completely to that point I'm afraid this is what is happening : {quote}
1.092x is last fresh breakup on H4 (from european open).
If it's the low of US session, tickets to get on the train are just going to be more and more expensive
  • #146
  • May 19, 2020 9:02am May 19, 2020 9:02am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.092x is last fresh breakup on H4 (from european open). If it's the low of US session, tickets to get on the train are just going to be more and more expensive
I pulled the trigger for the ST play
very very expensive entry

Long 1.092x TP1 1.102x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.115x STP 1.082x
  • #147
  • May 19, 2020 9:24am May 19, 2020 9:24am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I pulled the trigger for the ST play very very expensive entry Long 1.092x TP1 1.102x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.115x STP 1.082x
Not all together, in at support with res at 1.095, it may bounce between until it breaks, may be the play to sell half then buy back on the rebound if it holds, good luck on the trade.
EDIT
30 min chart I'm looking at.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #148
  • May 19, 2020 3:09pm May 19, 2020 3:09pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES has continued the move up today : reversal triggered on H4 (we have now a TA Bottom in this TF) and is now trading the top of the range. That should be an area to look for shorts but however we can see on D1 chart that price is also trying to build a TA Bottom in this TF.As soon as price takes back the breakdown @ 297x on D1 close, a test of 313x looks on the table. Sideline here till markets solve that 297x. ES H4 Map : {image} ES D1 Map : {image} For the record, ES W1 Map : {image}
297x tested in ES today. It has capped the flow to the tick.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-19052020.png Size: 76 KB
  • #149
  • May 19, 2020 4:30pm May 19, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I pulled the trigger for the ST play very very expensive entry Long 1.092x TP1 1.102x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.115x STP 1.082x
Disappointing close in EURUSD

Not because of the long wick (bears were just selling the high of last may-04's breakdown candle), but because bulls failed to close above the breakdown point @ 1.093x and even failed to hold the small break above yesterday's high (1.0927).

That doesn't smell good to me as it hints further retrace.

=> All longs from 1.092x cleared @ BE

For the record :
Max drawdown = 0
Max drawup = 30 pips

Will try again @ 1.085x and 1.082x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-19052020.png Size: 145 KB
  • #150
  • May 19, 2020 5:29pm May 19, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Disappointing close in EURUSD Not because of the long wick (bears were just selling the high of last may-04's breakdown candle), but because bulls failed to close above the breakdown point @ 1.093x and even failed to hold the small break above yesterday's high (1.0927). That doesn't smell good to me as it hints further retrace. => All longs from 1.092x cleared @ BE For the record : Max drawdown = 0 Max drawup = 30 pips Will try again @ 1.085x and 1.082x {image}
I'm not trading it but as an observation a break below 1.090 could further fall but my guess is a rebound from here, seems the cycle has not completed in my eyes, a little like EJ scenario, it went half way, stalled and pulled back then without warning burst up, like I said I'm not in it so it's only a view, please let me know if your ok with me posting, understand if you would like to keep your thread as a journal/blog, without any replies from you I fear you like things as they are, nothing personal, you have a good informative thread going on and you may not be looking for input, Detector
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #151
  • May 19, 2020 7:35pm May 19, 2020 7:35pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Nope. Last leg down has killed the ST uptrend. As ... oth cases, since we are trading at the top of the range, looking for shorts is the only valid option.. . ,
.. Can it reverse ST and break up ATH ? Only some Pharmas have done it so far it if I'm right.
FA wise, it's impossible via current macro (Consumer spending , Unemployment...) as... s.
Hi bud.

Let me be honest - I don't trade stocks.
They are a disgusting manipulation. And I don't have time....

But I see winning trade easily after many years in liars business (forex, gold, indices).
I'm telling you that 323-333 will happen in Apple.
Too many stops, too many naive sellers.

What then???? Don't care. When??? Soon.

You say it's IMPOSSIBLE. . .. Why????
And you may write 3 pages to convince someone (maybe yourself?? ) but can't.

Selling above that top is the better sell.
Some technical wizards will tell me to buy.... And I'll laugh and sell
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #152
  • May 19, 2020 8:05pm May 19, 2020 8:05pm
Quoting detector
Hello Rep (hope I can shorten your name) whats your thoughts on GBP/JPY, be good to see your thoughts and predictions, seems a little bombed out ATM,opened a small long, 129.503, price at the boundaries on my chart, will be interesting to hear, thanks Detector
Rep, what's your thoughts back to GJ, I opened a short 132.066, if it beats 131.78 current supp on the 2hr it may continue the bearish scenario, never thought it may have gone so far, I'm in the middle ATM.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #153
  • May 19, 2020 11:16pm May 19, 2020 11:16pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 297x tested in ES today. It has capped the flow to the tick. {image}
That looks like a triple top to me... I've got a feeling it won't be that easy though. I'm bearish and I've got a suspicion we could see a quick breakout to 3000 before heading back down. It would be a great bull trap.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #154
  • May 20, 2020 8:20am May 20, 2020 8:20am
Quoting detector
{quote} Rep, what's your thoughts back to GJ, I opened a short 132.066, if it beats 131.78 current supp on the 2hr it may continue the bearish scenario, never thought it may have gone so far, I'm in the middle ATM.
All GBP crosses look very bearish to me. For a swing in GBPJPY I gave you my levels, I don't trade intraday so I'm afraid I can't help.
  • #155
  • May 20, 2020 8:29am May 20, 2020 8:29am
Quoting EF5
{quote} That looks like a triple top to me... I've got a feeling it won't be that easy though. I'm bearish and I've got a suspicion we could see a quick breakout to 3000 before heading back down. It would be a great bull trap.
Yes if bullsmanages to take that 297x in ES on D1, they will then aim 303x (high of the breakdown candle) and 313x to try to mark a reversal in this TF.

But they can't break out via macro. If they break out that will be via FED's monetary policy (as discussed for AAPL too).
  • #156
  • Edited 11:50am May 20, 2020 8:34am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Disappointing close in EURUSD Not because of the long wick (bears were just selling the high of last may-04's breakdown candle), but because bulls failed to close above the breakdown point @ 1.093x and even failed to hold the small break above yesterday's high (1.0927). That doesn't smell good to me as it hints further retrace. => All longs from 1.092x cleared @ BE For the record : Max drawdown = 0 Max drawup = 30 pips Will try again @ 1.085x and 1.082x {image}
Breach to HH. That was a bad idea to close longs

What a bluff on the close yesterday.
  • #157
  • May 20, 2020 9:58am May 20, 2020 9:58am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Done, M&M's €500bns revovery fund proposal taking the upper hand on german court's ruling : {image} => Road is now open to (re)start to price in FED's monetary policy. We can have a parabolic move to the upside in EURUSD with only shallow retraces if markets decide to fully price in FED's open-ended purchases. Last break up points mark areas where to try to load : @1.089x, 1.085x and 1.082x
merciless reversal, parabolic move, no retrace nothing

Next Res I have :
1.102x (for a break to HH on D1)
1.105x (H4 Top)
1.109x (D1 flip to unlock D1 Top)
1.115x (D1 Top)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-20052020.png Size: 83 KB
  • #158
  • May 20, 2020 11:19am May 20, 2020 11:19am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Clearing first target here in EURUGBP @ 0.889x from 0.876x + 130 pips Keeping the remaining longs for TP2 89.7x & TP3 91.3x and trailing stop at BE Max drawdown = -70 pips (via that surreal german court ruling but bottom held without sweating which says a lot about market expectations on BOE's monetary policy) Max drawup = +130 pips {quote} Hey, thanks, thread is closer to a personnal blog/trading journal rather than a trading discussion actually, maybe it should be...
clearing second target in EURGBP @ 0.897x from 0.876x
+210 pips

Keeping the remaining for final target@ 0.913x & trailing STP @ 0.883x

So far, swing has been fuelled mostly via EUR's strength and not via GBP's weakness, that leaves some margin to fill that 0.913x

Max drawdown = -70 pips (a poor start via that german court's rulling on ECB's actions)
Max draw up = + 210 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-h4-20052020.png Size: 63 KB
  • #159
  • May 20, 2020 1:24pm May 20, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Rep, what's your thoughts back to GJ, I opened a short 132.066, if it beats 131.78 current supp on the 2hr it may continue the bearish scenario, never thought it may have gone so far, I'm in the middle ATM.
That's the maps I have in GBPJPY :

D1 Map
Bears still have the upper hand in this TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-d1-20052020.png Size: 53 KB



H4 Map
We are sitting more or less at the flip in this TF
TA wise, this TF looks neutral
131.5x is a fresh valid sell with stop a few pips above last breakdown candle, let's say 132.2x, for targets @ 130.6x, 130.3x (bottom) and 129.8x (extrem)
For bulls, 130.3x is the "cheapest" entry to go long (H4 bottom), 130.6x is decent while 131.4x is very aggressive entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-h4-20052020.png Size: 50 KB



I don't trade this pair usually , thinking a bit out loud
If you agree D1 drives (meaning caps/floors) H4 TF, then looking for shorts around @ 131.5x looks valid

I pulled the trigger here @131.5x to walk the talk
let's see what happens

Sold GBPJPY 131.5x TP1 130.6x TP2 130.3x and TP3 129.8 STP 132.2x
  • #160
  • May 20, 2020 1:50pm May 20, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 297x tested in ES today. It has capped the flow to the tick. {image}
ES struggling again today to take that 297x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-20052020.png Size: 71 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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