Disliked{quote} EURUSD looks set to lose H4 Bottom now A break and it's direct 1.071x (ultimate break up point sits @ 1.0707) {image}Ignored
- #122
- May 14, 2020 12:23pm May 14, 2020 12:23pm
{quote} Clearing some shorts in ES here @ 281x from 2905 & 2921 A decent +100 points on ESmax drawdown 30 points Keeping the remaining for 275x and 265x and trailing stop at BE now (Why 281x ? : there is a break up point on H4 there : {image}
{quote} bad luck in ES, second target 275x from 2905 & 2921 missed by a couple of ticks, low @ 2760.25............................
=> all remaining shorts from 2905 & 2921 cleared @ 281x
Overall : +100 points
Max drawdown = -30 points
Max drawup = +150 points (very very bad luck the failure to clear @ 275x)
- #123
- May 14, 2020 1:05pm May 14, 2020 1:05pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
Bought Long in EURGBP @ 0.876x TP1 0.8890x TP2 0.89.8x TP3 0.913x STP 0.865x Decent combo on H4 imo {image}
from 0.876x+ 130 pips
Keeping the remaining longs for TP2 89.7x & TP3 91.3x and trailing stop at BE
Max drawdown = -70 pips (via that surreal german court ruling but bottom held without sweating which says a lot about market expectations on BOE's monetary policy)
Max drawup = +130 pips
Hello Replicant, you have some excellent charting & forcasting going on there, while I follow the majors, I'll keep an eye out for any majors predictions, if you have any entries pinpointed it would be good to see, also If I see anything of relevance/possible setups, is it ok to post for dissection, thanks Detector.
{quote} EURUSD looks set to lose H4 Bottom now A break and it's direct 1.071x (ultimate break up point sits @ 1.0707) {image}
{quote} London closing in imminent breakdown................................
1.083x is the rain maker as it is the breakdown point of the breakdown candle capped by the breakdown point of the breakdown candle triggered by that german court rulling on ECB's actions.
if we take back that level by next h4 candle/london close, that will mean the german court ruling hasn't anymore the upper hand on the flow, leaving traders with only monetary policies to trade, and on that topic it's a no brainer as said earlier, as FED has by far the loosest monetary policy in the world. On We are minimum 400 pips below fair value from a monetary policy perspective via FED's open-ended purchases.
- #127
- May 15, 2020 12:49pm May 15, 2020 12:49pm
{quote} {quote} in EURUSD, bottom still holding, current micro-flow flow to 1.083x is only retrace to last breakdown point. 1.083x is the rain maker as it is the breakdown point of the breakdown candle capped by the breakdown point of the breakdown candle triggered by that german court rulling on ECB's actions. {image}
meaning german court rulling on ECB's actions has still the upper hand on the flow
there is no reason to go long as long as markets keep this bias
FA wise, there is no reason to go short neither as, to me, this rulling remains a farce (very very embarassing for Germany to say the least, when world is facing the biggest crisis since 1929 and is on the brink of a total reset). TA wise, the most probable remains a breakdown for minimum 1.071x but I'm not trading it (1.083x is perfect entry for that play). I let them take the floor if they want.
{quote} {quote} ES back to 281x and slowly trying to plot a H4 bottom in the area => all remaining shorts from 2905 & 2921 cleared @ 281x Overall : +100 points
Since then, H4 wise:
-> flow continued to move up, marking a break up @ 2833, before stalling at last reversal point @ 2851
-> that reversal point capped the flow and triggered a retrace to that same 281x
-> but bulls managed at the end to hold the break up point @ 2833
Price is sitting now again at that reversal point @ 2851.
Is it allowed to sell Weed in FF ? Making revenues by selling Weed in my country would lead me to prison, while making revenues by selling TSX:Weed will lead me to pay a 30% flat tax. Sold TSX:Weed @ 22.0x TP1 20.2x TP2 17.5x TP3 15.2x STP 23.8x (1:1 for TP1) {image}
{quote} First target cleared in TSX:Weed, TP1 20.2x hit
Even if it brought some $, it was an awful trade :
Max drawdown : - 10 cents per share (-0.45%)
Max drawup : +$3.4 per share (+15.45%)
Realized PnL : +$1.8 per share cleared @ TP1 (+8.18%)
Entry was really good as max drawdown shows, but not clearing some @ 18.6x and waiting for 17.5x was just plainly stupid.
- #131
- May 16, 2020 8:09am May 16, 2020 8:09am
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,961 Posts
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors. 
<p>{quote} Hi Selling Apple???But you do realize the trend is massively up, and every MM and liars Banksters and broker is gunning for the OBVIOUS Stops At 323-330 area???
Reconsider the sell
Last leg down has killed the ST uptrend. As long as it desn't break up last Jan ATH, ST is not anymore in an uptrend. Even if you add a dozen of emoticons :-).
MT uptrend is still intact - they saved it to the tick @ 21x - but ST isn't.
As long as ATH holds, bears have the upper hand. At best, ST is neutral. At worst, it's bearish and current leg up is only a dead cat bounce.
In both cases, since we are trading at the top of the range, looking for shorts is the only valid option.
There is a fresh break down point @ 31x.
It might look like an early & soft signal as it's only a rejection of a SH at the top of a leg up but important point is that SH was capped by last Feb breakdown point, breakdown that triggered that sharp leg down (-33%). Meaning bears are still sitting there.
For the trade above,
Entry is classic : any retrace to that breakdown point
Risk is known : last high
If stop is hit on a quick wick/extension as it seems you are hinting, that will be a bad trade, that's all.
Trade's r:r is 1:3 (minimum), which means, if probability of success is above 25%, it's just worth.
Can it reverse ST and break up ATH ? Only some Pharmas have done it so far it if I'm right.
FA wise, it's impossible via current macro (Consumer spending , Unemployment...) as priority for random joe is food & mortgage/rent and not a m'as-tu vu cellphone. Only FED's wildcard remains.
- #133
- May 17, 2020 5:17pm May 17, 2020 5:17pm
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #135
- May 18, 2020 5:49am May 18, 2020 5:49am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #138
- May 18, 2020 10:53am May 18, 2020 10:53am
- Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 3,743 Posts
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
- #139
- May 18, 2020 12:22pm May 18, 2020 12:22pm
{quote} EURUSD on the move => new failure to break down => and german court 's ruling on the brink to lose the upper hand on the flow via Merkel/Macron' s plan. Tracking a close above 1.0851 (last friday's extension) by next H4 candle before looking for longs Breaking up 1.0896 is reversal on H4 Can't plot, on mobile right now
=> Road is now open to (re)start to price in FED's monetary policy.
We can have a parabolic move to the upside in EURUSD with only shallow retraces if markets decide to fully price in FED's open-ended purchases.
Last break up points mark areas where to try to load : @1.089x, 1.085x and 1.082x
- #140
- May 18, 2020 12:35pm May 18, 2020 12:35pm
on D1, still in EURUSD, flow stalling below last breakdown point @1.093x
Not a surprise, this is where we had planned to clear first target on last try :
but no regret, clearing all @ BE was the right thing to do at that time
Reversal on D1 will come with a break up of 1.102x
Not a surprise, this is where we had planned to clear first target on last try :
{quote} long filled @ 1.082x TP1 1.092x TP2 1.099x TP3 1.109x STP 1.072x
Reversal on D1 will come with a break up of 1.102x