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  • #81
  • May 2, 2020 11:42am May 2, 2020 11:42am
EURUSD on D1

As it stands, price has still not built a ST Bottom in this TF.
Only valid TA bottom in the area is the 2017 LT Bottom @ 1.058x.
2017 LT W1 SL rejection 1.068x has floored the flow so far.

(Structure of LT Bottom available here btw :

Quoting Replicant
EURUSD No swing to call yet but a quick look at 2017 LT Bottom structure : {image}
)

However, price is now trying to build a ST Bottom @ 1.083x in this TF, which was, coincidentally or not, the previous ST Bottom before panic via global lockdown wiped it out. Last Friday, it failed to do so as it couldn't hold the break up @ 1.099x (failed because of the M close ?) but taking now its extension @ 1.102x will trigger a reversal up and set that ST bottom.

Regarding ST Top, it sits @ 1.116x and was set by that previous panic flow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Map I have on D1 is :

ST BOTTOM 1.058x <-- 1.068x <-- ST FLIP 1.083x --> 1.109x --> ST TOP 1.116x

- If we break up, new map will be :

ST BOTTOM 1.083x <-- ST FLIP 1.099x --> ST TOP 1.116x

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My bias on EURUSD is bullish, simply from a monetary policy perspective. Macro data are unreadable (lets say it : irrelevant (from a pure Fx perspective obviously)) via global lockdown, and risk/panic looks set to take a rest till early June (when we will be able to gauge the impact of re-opening economies on health front) so trading monetary policy only doesn't look a bad choice in my mind

Trade's idea :

Long 1.091x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.11x STP 1.086x (a decent max risk 50 pips : min reward 80 pips)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #82
  • May 2, 2020 8:39pm May 2, 2020 8:39pm
Once the health crisis passes, a complete reshuffle of international trade will be on the table. That's guaranteed. Western leaders already hint it (and not only the clown). And PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA will lose so much that they might collapse.

People will buy from whoever is selling and will sell to whoever is buying... their own economies depend on it. The world cannot afford to ignore trade with China, even if some sort of embargo was justified. The US bad behavior is more obvious and blatant, luckily for them it ultimately wont matter.
  • #83
  • May 3, 2020 10:09am May 3, 2020 10:09am
Quoting cashfactor
People will buy from whoever is selling and will sell to whoever is buying... their own economies depend on it. The world cannot afford to ignore trade with China, even if some sort of embargo was justified. The US bad behavior is more obvious and blatant, luckily for them it ultimately wont matter.
Lol you are on the wrong thread, it's not Beijing Radio here, I know a platform where you can give a hand to Xi Jinping's Chinese dream if you want

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Trade Idea on TESLA

TESLA was hammered at ST Top and failed to reverse the trend. Are these bear hands only scalping or is it the start of a new swing down ?
Betting on the second option here.

Limit Sell 73x TP1 60x TP2 56x TP3 51x STP 81x (Max risk = $80 per share, Min Reward = $130 per share)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #84
  • May 3, 2020 5:23pm May 3, 2020 5:23pm
US Equities (ES) MT Map

- SH Rejection @ 2953 was heavily sold, bears riding the flow can aim as low as 2650 without changing anything to the range as it would be pure chop.

- MT Target of the new cycle down via a second wave down are as low as 199x and 188x (extrem target). That second wave down doesn't look on the table right now tbh. Timing is not appropriate : economies WW are re-opening, impact on health front will only be seen in June while macro data will start to be interesting only in late June (today they are just surreal & irrelevant imo)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • May 3, 2020 6:13pm May 3, 2020 6:13pm
EURUSD on H4

is very neutral TA wise

H4 Bottom 1.080x <-- H4 Flip 1.099x --> H4 Top 1.106x

Nice breakup point @ 1.091x to load longs to aim the top of that range in this TF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #86
  • May 4, 2020 10:31am May 4, 2020 10:31am
Quoting Replicant
.................... Trade's idea : Long 1.091x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.115x STP 1.086x (a decent max risk 50 pips : min reward 80 pips) {image}
Filled @ 1.091x

=> Long 1.091x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.115x STP 1.086x
  • #87
  • May 4, 2020 10:47am May 4, 2020 10:47am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Trade Idea on TESLA TESLA was hammered at ST Top and failed to reverse the trend. Are these bear hands only scalping or is it the start of a new swing down ? Betting on the second option here. Limit Sell 73x TP1 60x TP2 56x TP3 51x STP 81x (Max risk = $80 per share, Min Reward = $130 per share) {image}
Filled in TSLA @ 735

=> Limit Sell 73x TP1 60x TP2 56x TP3 51x STP 81x
  • #88
  • May 4, 2020 6:45pm May 4, 2020 6:45pm
Bought Long in EURGBP @ 0.876x TP1 0.8890x TP2 0.89.8x TP3 0.913x STP 0.865x

Decent combo on H4 imo

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #89
  • May 4, 2020 6:54pm May 4, 2020 6:54pm
EURGBP H4 :

87.6x is pullback to break up after price has reversed up

and bears, so far, pa wise, can only be seen as scalpers
  • #90
  • May 5, 2020 7:22am May 5, 2020 7:22am
Quoting Replicant
Long 1.091x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.109x TP3 1.11x STP 1.086x (a decent max risk 50 pips : min reward 80 pips) {image}
stop hit in EURUSD @ 1.086x via that german news, -50 pips

tbh, I find it very weird markets think German court can/will prevail over EU court

In any case, on D1 EURUSD hit back that 1.083x

Quoting Replicant
... However, price is now trying to build a ST Bottom @ 1.083x in this TF, which was, coincidentally or not, the previous ST Bottom before panic via global lockdown wiped it out. ...
That should be another try to load longs in normal circumstances
  • #91
  • May 5, 2020 7:24am May 5, 2020 7:24am
EURUSD Map on D1

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  • #92
  • May 5, 2020 7:55am May 5, 2020 7:55am
Quoting Replicant
Bought Long in EURGBP @ 0.876x TP1 0.8890x TP2 0.89.8x TP3 0.913x STP 0.865x Decent combo on H4 imo {image}

In EURGBP H4, longs are still alive

German news wiped out the break up point but H4 bottom still holding so far

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #93
  • May 5, 2020 11:20am May 5, 2020 11:20am
Quoting Replicant
US Equities (ES) MT Map - SH Rejection @ 2953 was heavily sold, bears riding the flow can aim as low as 2650 without changing anything to the range as it would be pure chop. - MT Target of the new cycle down via a second wave down are as low as 199x and 188x (extrem target). That second wave down doesn't look on the table right now tbh. Timing is not appropriate : economies WW are re-opening, impact on health front will only be seen in June while macro data will start to be interesting only in late June (today they are just surreal & irrelevant...
Trying to find a trade to short US Equities (ES)

MT Map gives me my STP @ 296x

(taking that level and ES can aim as high as 303x imo)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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while H4 Map gives me the trigger/value area

I have 2 pending sells @ 2905 and 2921

(I'm trading IG CFDs not ES directly for those wondering how I can handle a +50 points stop on ES)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #94
  • May 5, 2020 3:47pm May 5, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} stop hit in EURUSD @ 1.086x via that german news, -50 pips tbh, I find it very weird markets think German court can/will prevail over EU court In any case, on D1 EURUSD hit back that 1.083x {quote} That should be another try to load longs in normal circumstances
Yes EU court always prevails ...

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/celex.j...ype=TXT&ancre=
  • #95
  • May 5, 2020 3:58pm May 5, 2020 3:58pm
JUDGMENT OF THE COURT (Grand Chamber)
11 December 2018

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf CELEX_62017CJ0493_EN_TXT.pdf   1.3 MB | 921 downloads
  • #96
  • May 5, 2020 4:24pm May 5, 2020 4:24pm
Beyond all written laws and jurisprudence, Law, at the end, is only a photograph of power relations ...
  • #97
  • May 6, 2020 7:28am May 6, 2020 7:28am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} stop hit in EURUSD @ 1.086x via that german news, -50 pips tbh, I find it very weird markets think German court can/will prevail over EU court In any case, on D1 EURUSD hit back that 1.083x {quote} That should be another try to load longs in normal circumstances
And yes again...

""We reaffirm the primacy of EU law. The rulings of the European Court of Justice are binding on all national courts."

European Commission, today.

As EU court's arbitrage on ECB's QE1 already underlined.
  • #98
  • May 6, 2020 11:00am May 6, 2020 11:00am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} In EURGBP H4, longs are still alive German news wiped out the break up point but H4 bottom still holding so far {image}
EURGBP H4 Bottom held strong

flawless, longs scalping the bottom end here, while long swing trade only back at BE


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #99
  • May 6, 2020 11:10am May 6, 2020 11:10am
Quoting Replicant
... H4 Bottom 1.080x <-- H4 Flip 1.099x --> H4 Top 1.106x ...
EURUSD H4 Bottom has held so far as well (to the tick, rejection wise)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #100
  • May 6, 2020 11:29am May 6, 2020 11:29am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD H4 Bottom has held so far as well (to the tick, rejection wise) {image}
scalping H4 Bottom here, but swing wise, waiting for ...

Quoting Replicant
... Map I have on D1 is : ST BOTTOM 1.058x <-- 1.068x <-- ST FLIP 1.083x --> 1.109x --> ST TOP 1.116x

... waiting for EURUSD to take back that flip @ 1.083x on D1 to pull the trigger for a new try to ride a swing to the the upside (1.099x, 1.109x, 1.115x)


FA wise, last try was spoiled by german court's arbitrage but we saw EU court has clearly the upper hand via Dec 2018's jurisprudence (reminded by both ECB (yesterday) and European Commission (today)).

We basically should not lose that level for the close but I prefer to wait before loading a more decent position.
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