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Swing Trading only - All Markets

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 19, 2020 3:06pm Feb 19, 2020 3:06pm
No Intraday, Swing Trading Only. All Markets.

Ideally a place to try to call and ride the rare and fat trades that take days to weeks to unfold completely.

Bold calls hopefully beyond noise, hiccups & micro flows.

====================================================================

Stating probably the obvious but

Each call should come with an entry, a target, a stop, and a reason based on FA and/or TA.

Min R:R = 1

PEGI 18 thread so trolls etc. not allowed.
  • #2
  • Feb 19, 2020 3:17pm Feb 19, 2020 3:17pm
NYSE:UBER

UBER has probably done more for the economic empowerment of people living in underprivileged districts than any random social plan from any random government, but it is now facing everincreasing competition in the sector, legal issues (in particular with local labour laws) and growing demands from its contractors.


TA wise

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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IPO last May 2019 --> little up --> stall --> freefall -50% --> up


Current leg up was capped last week by last August 9th rejection. Price has drawn a SH at this level which has been rejected.

Trade's idea is just to sell the pullback to this rejection - pullback that occured today - to aim the nearest SL and last reversal up as second target. That's for the ST play.

MT wise, play is to aim the same reversal up + 2 more targets near the bottom of the range.

Natural stop is few ticks above current high ; tight risk - $1 per share - as current high taken will probably unlock the top of the range.

In other words :

ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01

MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01
  • #3
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:22am Feb 20, 2020 8:22am
EURUSD

No swing to call yet but a quick look at 2017 LT Bottom structure :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:59am Feb 20, 2020 8:59am


From this perspective, 1.068x is the natural target for bears riding current swing down. I don't believe in the "fill the gap and up we go" fairy tale thing we see everywhere as it looks too "easy".

In any case, profit taking, wherever it happens, will trigger a sharp and deep retrace as some hands are riding the swing down from 1.12xx/1.11xx.

It's either now (as price filled the gap) or later (1.068x imo).

Here having a pending long 1.068x TP1 1.078x TP2 1.088x STP 1.058x

(R:R wise, last part of the swing down to 1.068x not tradable imo)
  • #5
  • Feb 20, 2020 12:20pm Feb 20, 2020 12:20pm
Yeah I always wondered if anyone is able to exploit much money from SWING... I knew some traders that did so.... but with important detail.. they SWINGED before the SWAN... The smart ones, in my belief, know what it is, SWINGING.. some that confuse SWINGING with "real" trading might get burned eventually since market(s) doesn't swing forever, depends on the timeframe of course, but you get the idea

Anyway, would like to see some SWING style TE if possible...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6
  • Edited 9:39am Feb 21, 2020 9:02am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting Replicant
From this perspective, 1.068x is the natural target for bears riding current swing down. I don't believe in the "fill the gap and up we go" fairy tale thing we see everywhere as it looks too "easy". In any case, profit taking, wherever it happens, will trigger a sharp and deep retrace as some hands are riding the swing down from 1.12xx/1.11xx. It's either now (as price filled the gap) or later (1.068x imo). Here having a pending long 1.068x TP1 1.078x TP2 1.088x STP 1.058x (R:R wise, last part of the swing down to 1.068x not tradable...

Good numbers today from EZ, especially from Germany manufacturing sector (still contracting but it's coming from 41.xx), recovery seems to continue, and Bad numbers from the US, ugly print from the services sector (the only sector that was holding worldwide !) now contracting ... EURUSD looks set to build a ST bottom ..

=> Time to track CME FedWatch tool, probability for a cut in March was 10% before todays number, probability of a cut in June was 50% (40% 2 weeks ago)
  • #7
  • Feb 21, 2020 9:23am Feb 21, 2020 9:23am
ST Map I have in EURUSD :

As it stands :

-> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances

-> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed.


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  • #8
  • Feb 24, 2020 6:03am Feb 24, 2020 6:03am
Quoting Replicant
{quote}=> Time to track CME FedWatch tool, probability for a cut in March was 10% before todays number, probability of a cut in June was 50% (40% 2 weeks ago)
Probably of a FED cut in June jumped to 60% last friday but it is now at 75 % (!) via covid19 news.
Probably of a FED cut in March has jumped to 25% (not meaningful levels yet (probably too tight timing wise, unless an emergency cut (FED bias is neutral since Oct FOMC))

On ECB Side, despite covid19 news, there is not a lot to expect, ECB has runned out of ammo ; at last two meetings, their call for fiscal stimulus was unanimous. 2 weeks ago, EZ finance ministers agreed fiscal expansion if things get worse on macro front.

=> Fiscal stimulus in EZ would be Euro positive & Obviously Fed Cut expectations will give EURUSD a double boost.

The only problem is current risk off environment triggered by this week-end covid19 news. EURUSD has to digest, first, current risk off flows fueling USD.

TA wise in EURUSD :

Quoting Replicant
ST Map I have in EURUSD : As it stands : -> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances -> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed. {image}
Last SH rejection 1.0866 has capped the flow so far...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-24022020.png Size: 60 KB


As long as we don't have a ST bottom confirmed (ie. 1.092x taken back ), it's super risky to go long at these levels as we don't have TA bottom in the area. The nearest bottom I have is still at 1.068x where I have my only pending long :

Quoting Replicant
From this perspective, 1.068x is the natural target for bears riding current swing down. I don't believe in the "fill the gap and up we go" fairy tale thing we see everywhere as it looks too "easy". In any case, profit taking, wherever it happens, will trigger a sharp and deep retrace as some hands are riding the swing down from 1.12xx/1.11xx. It's either now (as price filled the gap) or later (1.068x imo). Here having a pending long 1.068x TP1 1.078x TP2 1.088x STP 1.058x (R:R wise, last part of the swing down to 1.068x not...
We could move 200 pips down via risk off flows and 400 pips up via FED/Fiscal stimulus in EZ
=> Sideline here, waiting for FED flows/EZ fiscal stimulus flows to take the upper hand on current risk-off flows
  • #9
  • Feb 24, 2020 9:01am Feb 24, 2020 9:01am
in ES

losing 321x on D1 will set a ST Top
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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losing 318x on W1 will set a MT Top
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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high chances FED pop up if Equities trade below these levels (especially MT one)
  • #10
  • Feb 24, 2020 9:08am Feb 24, 2020 9:08am
EURUSD is only trading inside last friday's bullish 4h candle (the one that came along ugly US PMI services print) so far

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  • #11
  • Feb 24, 2020 1:00pm Feb 24, 2020 1:00pm
Quoting Replicant
ST Map I have in EURUSD : As it stands : -> 1.0866 and 1.091x are nearest resistances -> If price takes back 1.092x, we will have a ST Bottom confirmed. {image}

EURUSD looks set for another failure to take 1st resistance : Last SH's rejection keeps capping the flow ...

That means some hands are still selling/adding shorts at that break down point and they are weighing heavier than those preempting FED / EZ fiscal stimulus flows.

=> still not interested by longs (swing wise) as long as 1.092x is not taken back or 1.068x touched.

To the downside, I still feel it's too risky to try to ride swing 1.086x --> 1.068x as FED members can pop up at anytime, which will probably wipe out all short positions in a flash move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12
  • Feb 24, 2020 1:05pm Feb 24, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting Replicant
in ES losing 321x on D1 will set a ST Top {image} losing 318x on W1 will set a MT Top {image} high chances FED pop up if Equities trade below these levels (especially MT one)

in ES, 321x held to the tick today ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13
  • Feb 25, 2020 10:24am Feb 25, 2020 10:24am
Quoting Replicant
in ES losing 321x on D1 will set a ST Top {image} losing 318x on W1 will set a MT Top {image} high chances FED pop up if Equities trade below these levels (especially MT one)

ES is now trading below MT reversal down trigger 318x ..
but very high chances level is protected on W1

=> looking for an entry here for a retrace swing

pending long ES @ 3169
  • #14
  • Feb 25, 2020 10:31am Feb 25, 2020 10:31am
Quoting Replicant
... ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01 MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01

bad luck in UBER, failed to clear first target @ 36.7x from 41.0x for 15 cents...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15
  • Feb 25, 2020 10:56am Feb 25, 2020 10:56am
I have jumped in for a retrace swing in Cac40 :

Long 5679 TP1 5759 TP2 5869 TP3 5989 STP 5599

(nearest break up point 5669 hit to the tick is the trigger TA wise)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:36am Feb 25, 2020 11:36am
s&p broke 3200, if it breaks the current trendline.

Will be a very good day.
rennstimp
  • #17
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:49am Feb 25, 2020 11:49am
Quoting Replicant
... ST Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 36.7x TP2 35.0x STP 42.01 MT Sell UBER 41.0x TP1 35.0x TP2 30.2x TP3 28.3x STP 42.01
TP1 36.7x hit in UBER

-10.48% from 41.0x
max drawdown 10 cents !

Trailing STP at BE now


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  • #18
  • Feb 25, 2020 12:20pm Feb 25, 2020 12:20pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ES is now trading below MT reversal down trigger 318x .. but very high chances level is protected on W1 => looking for an entry here for a retrace swing pending long ES @ 3169
ok filled in ES @ 3169 (a few points above break up point @ 3158))

aiming following retrace swing :

Long 3169 TP1 3209 TP2 3279 TP3 3329 STP 3129

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19
  • Feb 25, 2020 1:30pm Feb 25, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ok filled in ES @ 3169 (a few points above break up point @ 3158)) aiming following retrace swing : Long 3169 TP1 3209 TP2 3279 TP3 3329 STP 3129 {image}
that was quick ...
stopped out @ 3129 in ES
  • #20
  • Feb 26, 2020 5:24am Feb 26, 2020 5:24am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} that was quick ... stopped out @ 3129 in ES
Was stopped out in Cac as well on the same move :

Quoting Replicant
I have jumped in for a retrace swing in Cac40 : Long 5679 TP1 5759 TP2 5869 TP3 5989 STP 5599 (nearest break up point 5669 hit to the tick is the trigger TA wise) {image}
Sell off continues today
I'm still thinking week will be saved, especially in US equities as it's far too early for a MT reversal macro wise especially with current FED monetary policy (very aggressive). But my trades were awful, in particular timing wise as it was only Tuesday and end of the week was far away.
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