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Gold Mining - Using Each Trading Day's Trend

  • #1,801
  • May 1, 2020 11:46am May 1, 2020 11:46am
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} A and C activated... Meeeeeen I stay alive.
great job again brother. I played with fire this week and as a result got quite burned . Next week no instant executions or trades without SL. I admire your patience every time you trade bite. I see you patiently await your limits to get activated. I appreciate the opportunity to mine together sir. in addition to quantamath and skol of course. I appreciate the willingness of everyone to post their charts and ideas. helps us learn every single day. what one eye sees another may not. Have a good weekend you all.
  • #1,802
  • May 1, 2020 11:52am May 1, 2020 11:52am
Quoting rayoub
{quote} great job again brother. I played with fire this week and as a result got quite burned . Next week no instant executions or trades without SL. I admire your patience every time you trade bite. I see you patiently await your limits to get activated. I appreciate the opportunity to mine together sir. in addition to quantamath and skol of course. I appreciate the willingness of everyone to post their charts and ideas. helps us learn every single day. what one eye sees another may not. Have a good weekend you all.
Happy Weekend to you and all gold miners in the hustle in this thread...
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,803
  • May 1, 2020 3:19pm May 1, 2020 3:19pm
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} Happy Weekend to you and all gold miners in the hustle in this thread...
ACD were activated I see hopefully you enjoyed profits! my impatience led me to buying at 1680 , prior to the leg down to 1670 with overleveraging made for a good trade with bad results. lesson learned. we stay alive. the battle was lost on my part but the war is far from over
  • #1,804
  • Edited May 3, 2020 2:52am May 2, 2020 11:24am | Edited May 3, 2020 2:52am
Quoting rayoub
sorry for not posting you guys, stupidly stupidly left my trades with no sl last night and woke up to great empty account today. I am with you Quantamath I have done this several times but the lesson which bitefx has shown is to always use a stoploss and to allow the trade to either hit the stop loss or take profit. I am reading trend following, pretty old book but good nonetheless, it says traders learn more from their losses then their gains. we must look at these as lessons not deterrents from the market. the trendline that gold had been following...
Happy weekend to all

Unfortunately in the last three weeks, most of the TP's did not reach. but I have a strategy that when a market move enough in the direction of positions I set the SL near the entry price so this put my position risk-less, unless for the swap. Because of inaccurate calculation of TP most of the time in these weeks my balance did not grow and this situation put me on psychological pressure which could approach me to make a very bad and dangerous situation like to gambling in the market which could kill my account, which I have done before. But I learned that to get away from the market. a least for a day or more.

when you post about what happened to your account I was very upset, and I guess the risk of your position is very high. I have an idea about the Lot size management and growth rate of profit. which it`s base motivation is old, but I am trying to find some optimization. I learned this idea from past failures . I will share the idea early soon.
  • #1,805
  • May 2, 2020 1:44pm May 2, 2020 1:44pm
Quoting QuantaMath
{quote} Happy weekend to all Unfortunately in the last three weeks, most of the TP's did not reach. but I have a strategy that when a market move enough in the direction of positions I set the SL near the entry price so this put my position risk-less, unless for the swap. Because of inaccurate calculation of TP most of the time in these weeks my balance did not grow and this situation put me on psychological pressure which could approach me to make a very bad and dangerous situation like to gambling in the market which could kill my account, which...
The purpose of this thread is for such knowledge to be shared... Thank you Quantamath
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,806
  • May 2, 2020 2:50pm May 2, 2020 2:50pm
Quoting QuantaMath
{quote} Happy weekend to all Unfortunately in the last three weeks, most of the TP's did not reach. but I have a strategy that when a market move enough in the direction of positions I set the SL near the entry price so this put my position risk-less, unless for the swap. Because of inaccurate calculation of TP most of the time in these weeks my balance did not grow and this situation put me on psychological pressure which could approach me to make a very bad and dangerous situation like to gambling in the market which could kill my account, which...
thank you very much for taking the time to respond and share your experiences, yes out of emotions I raised my lot size to try to erase the losses and instead erased the account. you are right as well this usually occurs once an initial loss happens and without mentally preparing for next move you instinctively try to catch the market and end up losing. but you are absolutely correct, i have read a lot about trailing stop losses so if your position moves in your favor you raise it to a point that a profit would still be experienced in the event of a reversal. I again appreciate you commenting, this will help us all grow. I was embarrassed at first to share such a loss but we are human errors happen . hope you guys are enjoying your weekend
  • #1,807
  • May 2, 2020 8:45pm May 2, 2020 8:45pm
Quoting rayoub
{quote} thank you very much for taking the time to respond and share your experiences, yes out of emotions I raised my lot size to try to erase the losses and instead erased the account. you are right as well this usually occurs once an initial loss happens and without mentally preparing for next move you instinctively try to catch the market and end up losing. but you are absolutely correct, i have read a lot about trailing stop losses so if your position moves in your favor you raise it to a point that a profit would still be experienced in the...
I have shared many of my losses here too many times...You don't have to be embarrassed. We are all gold miners.
The more we learn to share our experiences, the better we become.
This is the business we found ourselves in.
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,808
  • May 2, 2020 10:34pm May 2, 2020 10:34pm
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} The purpose of this thread is for such knowledge to be shared... Thank you Quantamath
It’s my pleasure.
  • #1,809
  • May 3, 2020 1:47am May 3, 2020 1:47am
In simple, the main idea behind this model is based on two elements, the progressive power and focusing on the worst case of loss instead of best-case profit
Progressive power has a direct relation to aggressive trading. and the worst case of loss is the most conservative trading.
The equilibrium state between these two elements is the most optimized solution for trading. Optimize State means the maximization of profit and minimization loss.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lots manament-a1.png Size: 199 KB

In the left side of the figure in the gray cells, the variables of model describe as follow:
Initial Balance: The initial balance that a trader starts trading base on this model
Initial Risks: A risk respected to initial Balance that a trader considers.
SL-pips: The maximum pips that a trader considers in a position in each step.
TP-pips: The minimum pips of the difference between profits and losses in a single step, which allows a trader to goes the next step.
Factor: A special parameter in this model and it means how much of the previous profit would be considered as a current risk.
Margin Rate, Margin Call, Margin Out: A broker limitation of account
Price, Contract Size: Information of instrument.

In the first row of the table, Step 1, Lot Size computation is based on Initial Balance, Initial Risk, SL-pips.
Rows from 2 to 20, lot size calculation based on previous profit in the table, Factor, and SL-pips.

Strategy:
1- A trader starts trading with a Lot Size at row No.1 and a maximum of Stop Loss equal to SL-pips.
Win: If the difference between overall pips of profits and overall pips losses is bigger than TP-pips, then a trader allows trading with Lot Size at the next row. When A trader success in all rows, then withdraw some part of the balance and set the Initial balance with remaining money and start trading with new Lot Size at row No.1 based on new Initial Balance then a trader allows to trade with Lot Size at a No.2 row.
Loss: If the overall pips of losses are equal to SL-pips then there is two scenario
L1: Set the Initial Balance with a value of remaining balance after losses and trade with a new Lot Size at row No.1
L2: Trade with a half value of Lot Size at row No.1 until the balance of the account is equal or greater than Initial Balance. Since the Initial balance reached then start trading with Lot Size row No.1
2- From the row No. 2 to row No. 20.
Win:If the difference between overall pips of profits and overall pips losses is bigger than TP-pips then a trader allows trading with Lot Size at the next row. When A trader success in all rows, then withdraw some part of the balance and set the Initial balance with remaining money and start trading with new Lot Size at row No.1 based on new Initial Balance then a trader allows trading with Lot Size at the next row. When A trader success in all rows, then withdraw some part of the balance and set the Initial balance with remaining money and start trading with new Lot Size at row No.1 based on new Initial Balance
Loss: If Loss pips reached SL-pips, set the trade Lot Size to previous row's Lot Size and continue trading until the previous row's balance reached.

The model is more based on Pips than Money

Progressive power accelerates the profits growth and Lots Size based on Factor and SL-pips controls the risk.
For instance, In the above example, the SL-pips equal 70 guarantees if the market move 70 pips in the opposite of a position then the risk of trade is between 3% and 4%.

This model is in development and it needs more parameters, better optimizations, and simulations which could take several months. However, the Excel file is attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx NModel.xlsx   25 KB | 260 downloads
  • #1,810
  • May 3, 2020 6:46am May 3, 2020 6:46am
Quoting QuantaMath
In simple, the main idea behind this model is based on two elements, the progressive power and focusing on the worst case of loss instead of best-case profit Progressive power has a direct relation to aggressive trading. and the worst case of loss is the most conservative trading. The equilibrium state between these two elements is the most optimized solution for trading. Optimize State means the maximization of profit and minimization loss. {image} In the left side of the figure in the gray cells, the variables of model describe as follow: Initial...
Well done job Quantamath, thank you...
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,811
  • May 3, 2020 11:28am May 3, 2020 11:28am
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} Well done job Quantamath, thank you...
you're welcome
  • #1,812
  • May 3, 2020 4:28pm May 3, 2020 4:28pm
Trade Idea for Monday May 4, 2020.
Trend lines are giving a Broadening formation...Implication is that the market may go either direction.

Levels am watching...
A. 1709.70 - A break above and continuation shows the bulls have taken over.
B. 1667.06 - A break below and continuation shows the bears have taken over.

Today, I will be staying with my last week's sell trades, while observing to see if am to run away alive or to stay alive.

Happy New Week to you all my guys.
All the best!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20200503_145551.jpg Size: 62 KB
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,813
  • May 4, 2020 3:00am May 4, 2020 3:00am
Morning guys.
I'm hunting bulls today.
So, levels to entry are 1702.62 and 1694.21
TP1 1721.36
TP2 1729.86
I don't think bears have that strength to push price down to 1694.21, but everything is possible.
I'm waiting for my hunt.
Attached Image
Attached Image
Always expect unexpected.
  • #1,814
  • May 4, 2020 3:46am May 4, 2020 3:46am
Quoting Skoljkica
So, levels to entry are 1702.62 and 1694.21 TP1 1721.36 TP2 1729.86 I don't think bears have that strength to push price down to 1694.21, but everything is possible. I'm waiting for my hunt. {image}{image}
1702.62 acted as a support, but I think bears are not finished yet.
Possible down even to 1688.08
Attached Image
Always expect unexpected.
  • #1,815
  • May 4, 2020 3:52am May 4, 2020 3:52am
Quoting Skoljkica
Morning guys. I'm hunting bulls today. So, levels to entry are 1702.62 and 1694.21 TP1 1721.36 TP2 1729.86 I don't think bears have that strength to push price down to 1694.21, but everything is possible. I'm waiting for my hunt. {image}{image}
Hunt them down Skoljkica
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,816
  • May 4, 2020 7:33am May 4, 2020 7:33am
4hr trendline that was in tact all last week has just been tested from bottom at 1714.. If bulls can use 1696 to rally above 1714. I believe 1707.40 , 1710, and 1714, can all be used as buy limits with 1723.50 in the immediate horizon extending further to 1727.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,817
  • May 4, 2020 7:35am May 4, 2020 7:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200504-083531_MetaTrader 4.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
  • #1,818
  • May 4, 2020 7:40am May 4, 2020 7:40am
Quoting rayoub
{image}
I will not rule out the possibility however that bears can take over and as such will watch closely how price closes around 1700. if bears comfortably drive price back below 1692, then possibly sell limit at 1701, 1707 with first tp as 1684, if this breaks then it opens us up to 1670, last qeeks low. then to 1665
  • #1,819
  • May 4, 2020 9:49am May 4, 2020 9:49am
Quoting BiteFX
Trade Idea for Monday May 4, 2020. Trend lines are giving a Broadening formation...Implication is that the market may go either direction. Levels am watching... A. 1709.70 - A break above and continuation shows the bulls have taken over. B. 1667.06 - A break below and continuation shows the bears have taken over. Today, I will be staying with my last week's sell trades, while observing to see if am to run away alive or to stay alive. Happy New Week to you all my guys. All the best! {image}
A. Still acting out resistance function beautifully... Let the hope for more gravity from there.
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #1,820
  • May 4, 2020 12:29pm May 4, 2020 12:29pm
Hi all

The blue trend line 0 was broke and the price is dancing inside a channel between 1 and 1` magenta trend lines.
1- If the price will stay above of the dotted dark magenta line and will break the lemon-colored horizontal trend line at price 1709.36 then the market may has bull potential to break the magenta trend line 1
2- If the price stay below of the dotted dark magenta trend line and will break the orange trend line 2 then the market has a bear potential, and if it well break the green dotted horizontal line near 1691 at below then the price will has a potential to visit 1671 again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 57 KB
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