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4 + 1 (Metals) strategy

  • #3,501
  • Feb 13, 2020 1:07pm Feb 13, 2020 1:07pm
Quoting farukh
I just observed a very big divergence on daily chart, now where is the trigger price I think Obi can tell better, I am not very good in intraday levels and intraday reversals. Furthermore, trendline on daily chart from 1445 is broken mentioned by circle and is not being retested. lets see if it holds and just above it there is bearish trendline. {image}
Let’s watch for the daily close. Above or below the “bubble”. It has been there for some time now but we would need to see a clear break of that lower band on the D1 but zine followed by a daily close below the 1537/5 handle...till then we continue following the big boys throughout the day....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,502
  • Edited 4:42pm Feb 13, 2020 4:30pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting MzansiObi
13 February 2020 Traded below the H1 200 MA level for the better part of the day yesterday and most retests of the handle brought in some bearish action, and as a result, as mentioned by Bitefx, we had a bearish sentiment throughout the day, we did mentiuon though that an inability to get above the handle will result in bears taking some control but also stressed that the D1 bulls were lying a couple of pips below that level and as such looking for some buy dip setups from the lows would yield some, Farukh also pointed out a possible right shoulder...
Hello MzansiObi.
I have read the 1st post of this thread maybe a dozen times and I am still fuzzy about how do you determine you're buy or sell zones on the different time frames.
I've created a very simple prototype indicator to show the MA's crossing and added a comment to show the bid price distance from the 15 EMA
on the M15 time frame in ticks.
I would also want to know how you determine the upside and downside levels.

This is just a proto indicator with no alert or any special stuff.
Been a pretty boring day with gold moving in a very tight range the last couple of hours.
Here is the indicator, just add it to a empty MT4 chart.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MACrossSignal_V1.ex4   14 KB | 363 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACrossSignal_V1.mq4   5 KB | 377 downloads

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDmicroH1.png Size: 47 KB

One can live in the shadow of an idea without grasping it.
  • #3,503
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:02pm Feb 13, 2020 6:02pm
Quoting Trader1971
{quote} Hello MzansiObi. I have read the 1st post of this thread maybe a dozen times and I am still fuzzy about how do you determine you're buy or sell zones on the different time frames. I've created a very simple prototype indicator to show the MA's crossing and added a comment to show the bid price distance from the 15 EMA on the M15 time frame in ticks. I would also want to know how you determine the upside and downside levels. This is just a proto indicator with no alert or any special stuff. Been a pretty boring day with gold moving in a very...
that is a great indicator... thx for sharing..

If I can help explaining how I see it, just my view, its a really great system I think. With a lot of discretionary involved but with a systematic Bias that limit losses by a lot.

Obi added a lot of other parameters and confluence thru the thread..
- EMA 200
- Levels (standard Pivots and Fibs and Custom ones)
- London Open
- Price Pattern (H&S are the most powerful has quant test proved it already)
- RSI and Stoch (I'm not sure how he use those TBH, I just look at them for confluence divergences)
- but also a lot of knowledge of price action that him and some very experienced traders here just feel it... we just need to see more screen time to achieve that.. no shortcut for experience

So, the way I see it, this 15/30 EMA crossover give you immediate Bias direction as you clearly coded it. D1, H4, H1 are the most important, if they all agree great. Otherwise not that simple.
For entries, re-touch of the 15/30 zones are great but EMA 200 on H1, M15 are also very important, just look how price reacted to them in the past....

- Levels : another way to not just enter the trade in the 'middle' of a move... the way I see, it, if there is a drop, and there is a 15/30 Zone, a Weekly pivot + a Daily Fibs + a Daily strong support, price will most likely bounce from it, will it be a 100 pips move or a 15 pips move, I dont know, but I'm confident it will move enough to exit part of the position and move SL to BE and just watch risk free what price does..... I believe this is key, the MM part.... lots of smaller winning trades versus looking for the big move...

I added a chart of all the possible entry on the H1 chart you posted...you can see how many winning trades you could have with proper MM and just following the trend.

Trend is you friend right ? until it doesn't, counter trend are just as beautiful but if you keep it simple there is a lot to be made

Obi hope you dont mind I tried to share my understanding of the system

Green pips all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15-30.png Size: 67 KB
  • #3,504
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:08pm Feb 13, 2020 6:08pm
Quoting Trader1971
{quote} Hello MzansiObi. I have read the 1st post of this thread maybe a dozen times and I am still fuzzy about how do you determine you're buy or sell zones on the different time frames. I've created a very simple prototype indicator to show the MA's crossing and added a comment to show the bid price distance from the 15 EMA on the M15 time frame in ticks. I would also want to know how you determine the upside and downside levels. This is just a proto indicator with no alert or any special stuff. Been a pretty boring day with gold moving in a very...
Great job dude!
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #3,505
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:23pm Feb 13, 2020 6:23pm
just adding standard daily pivot Levels for added confluence. There is a lot more of course, and I think Obi have a special way of calculating those.
I think you could have avoided the first losing trade (first black cross on 6 feb) just because price traded (and was rejected 3 times) ABOVE the daily pivot for a short.
And of course it was an inverted head & Shoulder.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15-30-with-pivots.png Size: 71 KB
  • #3,507
  • Feb 13, 2020 6:53pm Feb 13, 2020 6:53pm
Price Channel Up...More to the upside today.
Trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20200214_014947_808.jpg Size: 119 KB
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  • #3,508
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:21pm Feb 13, 2020 10:21pm
Quoting BiteFX
Price Channel Up...More to the upside today. Trend {image}
BiteFX I'm unable to see the Levels...
  • #3,509
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:35pm Feb 13, 2020 10:35pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} that is a great indicator... thx for sharing.. If I can help explaining how I see it, just my view, its a really great system I think. With a lot of discretionary involved but with a systematic Bias that limit losses by a lot. Obi added a lot of other parameters and confluence thru the thread.. - EMA 200 - Levels (standard Pivots and Fibs and Custom ones) - London Open - Price Pattern (H&S are the most powerful has quant test proved it already) - RSI and Stoch (I'm not sure how he use those TBH, I just look at them for confluence divergences)...
Would you make it some more clear please...
For entries, re-touch of the 15/30 zones are great but EMA 200 on H1, M15 are also very important, just look how price reacted to them in the past...
great explanation
  • #3,510
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:38pm Feb 13, 2020 10:38pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} that is a great indicator... thx for sharing.. If I can help explaining how I see it, just my view, its a really great system I think. With a lot of discretionary involved but with a systematic Bias that limit losses by a lot. Obi added a lot of other parameters and confluence thru the thread.. - EMA 200 - Levels (standard Pivots and Fibs and Custom ones) - London Open - Price Pattern (H&S are the most powerful has quant test proved it already) - RSI and Stoch (I'm not sure how he use those TBH, I just look at them for confluence divergences)...
Thanks Tragruel, I will see over this coming weekend if I can not improve on this indicator with the added info.
Off to work for me now.
Best of trading all, enjoy.
One can live in the shadow of an idea without grasping it.
  • #3,511
  • Feb 13, 2020 10:54pm Feb 13, 2020 10:54pm
14 February 2020



Supportive H1 Buy Zone price structure throughout the previous day, so much so that our m15 and H1 200 handles werent brought into play and price trading in a tight range as Trader71 mentioned, for today though, it seems we may get some deeper pullback to allow for another set of longs from the H1 200 and m15 200, the H1 is bullish and so too is the H4, however ever since reaching the inverse Head and Shoulders target near the 1578 handle, we have seen some profit taking as the bulls have lost some momentum and allowed the bears to push us back lower leading to a bearish H4 close from the handle.


As things stand, price is trading inside the H1 buy zone, having bounced off of the handle for some support, but since we expect a deeper pullback will be looking a buying off of the two 200 MA levels as they fall just inside the H4 buy zone.


Farukh mentioned the divergence on the daily, and we seem to have closed inside/just below that bubble on the daily as such there may still be plenty of room for us to look to get some buy dips while we let that Daily RSI divergence play out.



H1: Bullish and Zone: 1574.2 - 1575.1
H4: Bullish and Zone: 1570.5 - 1572.18
D1: Bullish and Zone: 1557.06 - 1568.38


Intraday Levels

Upside
1593.57
1587.64
1585.92
1581.07
1578.08
1575.29

Downside
1573.43
1572.60
1569.64
1565.40
1563.49
1560.56




Green Pips
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,512
  • Feb 13, 2020 11:00pm Feb 13, 2020 11:00pm
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} that is a great indicator... thx for sharing.. If I can help explaining how I see it, just my view, its a really great system I think. With a lot of discretionary involved but with a systematic Bias that limit losses by a lot. Obi added a lot of other parameters and confluence thru the thread.. - EMA 200 - Levels (standard Pivots and Fibs and Custom ones) - London Open - Price Pattern (H&S are the most powerful has quant test proved it already) - RSI and Stoch (I'm not sure how he use those TBH, I just look at them for confluence divergences)...
That about sums it up Trag.

We will touch on this a little bit more over the weekend with some charts detailing what is what exactly and how to make use of the zones and levels etc.


Quoting Trader1971
{quote} Hello MzansiObi. I have read the 1st post of this thread maybe a dozen times and I am still fuzzy about how do you determine you're buy or sell zones on the different time frames. I've created a very simple prototype indicator to show the MA's crossing and added a comment to show the bid price distance from the 15 EMA on the M15 time frame in ticks. I would also want to know how you determine the upside and downside levels. This is just a proto indicator with no alert or any special stuff. Been a pretty boring day with gold moving in a very...
Great Job on the Indi mate, really impressive,the intra day levels are a combo of pivots, fibo levels and some range numbers that i calculate looking at price action from the previous day, and taking into account the weekly levels too, these have a little more math involved as such have chosen not to bombard the hread with them in a bid to keep things simple to a certain degree....

As mentioned , will post some more charts with examples etc to better clarify post one and to add onto what Trag has mentioned bud.

4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,513
  • Feb 14, 2020 1:56am Feb 14, 2020 1:56am
Quoting Rudrax
{quote} BiteFX I'm unable to see the Levels...
Sorry Rudrax, I had to fix some bugs.
Levels will be up in a bit.
Thanks, and stay alive.
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #3,514
  • Feb 14, 2020 2:14am Feb 14, 2020 2:14am
Update:
Pending Buy Order
1572.91
SL: 1560
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,515
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:13am Feb 14, 2020 3:13am
Quoting Rudrax
{quote} BiteFX I'm unable to see the Levels...
Trend:
Trade Idea: Buy
S, P, R, B, V as on the chart.
Stop Loss: Set to
1S, 2S, or 3S according to risk appetite.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20200214_100751_054.jpg Size: 114 KB
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  • #3,516
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:16am Feb 14, 2020 3:16am
Quoting BiteFX
{quote} Trend: Trade Idea: Buy S, P, R, B, V as on the chart. Stop Loss: Set to 1S, 2S, or 3S according to risk appetite. {image}
Take Profit : Set to
1B, 2B, 3B as on the chart according to your greed level.

We Stay Alive...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20200214_100725_666.jpg Size: 119 KB
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  • #3,517
  • Feb 14, 2020 4:16am Feb 14, 2020 4:16am
Price broke 1576.12 now retesting it perhaps for further upside move.
This is Forex, anything is possible.
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  • #3,518
  • Feb 14, 2020 4:19am Feb 14, 2020 4:19am
Update:
m15 chart beginning to show some hints of bearish divergence too, been rather subdued since the LO, as such buy limit adjust to 1573.19.

As Bite sais, we stay alive.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,519
  • Feb 14, 2020 7:18am Feb 14, 2020 7:18am
Bears have refused Bulls a breakout...Let's see what happens next...weekend trade... grhhh!
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  • #3,520
  • Feb 14, 2020 7:21am Feb 14, 2020 7:21am
But, Bulls are known to be naturally STUBBORN.
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