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CHEETAH Trading (100%+ per trade or up to 500% or more)

  • #441
  • Feb 2, 2020 10:49am Feb 2, 2020 10:49am
Ok guys, stat/test coming to an end in 1-2 weeks... So far I can tell you that it will/would be extremely hard in WTI or GOLD to enter 500:1 full max... because
spread for those 2 markets is HIGH and even if some brokers provide 500:1, stop-out is 50%... Which in practical terms mean that we only have 0.03 (price difference) margin of error. 0.12 price difference of WTI at 500:1 max.. (tested on IC markets) would be needed to get 100%/trade... But if you enter the market 500:1 MAX you are already -25% due to .03+ spread... So either we get GOOD broker with as low spread as possible for WTI, GOLD... and as low stop-out as possible.. or we would have to REDUCE the leverage... because entering so precisely is extremely exhausting... It did happened so far, as you could witness... But if overall profitability might appear better with for example 200:1 MAX... we might use that... and target bigger price difference or even aiming 50%/trade... So that it is... Final testing will continue in the next 2 weeks... and then we shall see what price difference (within what/certain error) to aim for... therefore what leverage, broker... to use... BTW.. the VOLUME/LOT limit that some have is quite the benefit.. because once we get to certain volume, we could get/negotiate better spread and stop-out deals... So that would be it... Glad to discuss CHEETAH, but not direct signals in the next 1-2weeks due to final/extreme testing... And then the conclusion
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #442
  • Edited 3:47am Feb 3, 2020 3:35am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting auricforecas
and target bigger price difference or even aiming 50%/trade...
Maybe it is ok to go for 20% - 50% trades because then can be used a negative risk/reward ratio and get ~75% positive deals and get a long win series from 10n - 40n.

See attached cheetah results 2.3milj in 10 years (implemented in EA cheetah logic) and now optimizing to find out the most stable setups.

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EURUSD_2010_M5_boilinger_recovery_7.76_dd_301662_profit_2340343.xlsx   683 KB | 334 downloads


As here we see we must be very hungry and brave because it is needed to always increase volume on success - so here we hunt for n=8, after success (n=8) we increase volume % according to available equity. So the next hunt is with more initial volume.

If not using cheetah but just increase volume according to % of available equity (so reinvest) - then results is not impressive (profit in 10 years 16k):

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EURUSD_2010_M5_boilinger_recovery_5.63_dd_2861_profit_16120.xlsx   666 KB | 323 downloads


When using cheetah but not increase volume according to % of available equity then stop out (lost momentum) - seems if you go with cheetah then go till the end there are no compromises (or need to find more stable setups):

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EURUSD_2010_M5_boilinger_stopout.xlsx   101 KB | 299 downloads


Here example with most negative start - we start on 2010. july when according to backtests started huge drawdown (if no cheetah). So we started with 1000 USD account and survived Yes not 2 milj but still 500k for worse scenario in 10 years:

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx EURUSD_2010_M5_boilinger_most_negative_start_but_survive.xlsx   645 KB | 328 downloads


Here we need a minimum 1000 USD because minimum lote is 0.1 because we need increase volume by 40% after each positive deal. If you will start with 0.01 then + 40% will end at the same 0.01. Bet when you start with 0.1 then +40% is 0.14. So if start with 100 USD capital then cent account must be used.

So idea is to find out the most stable cheetah setups on various symbols, run 10 EAs with different setups. 1 must succeed. That's what I am now dealing with along the way while continue to build my "synthetic assets".
  • #443
  • Feb 3, 2020 3:37pm Feb 3, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Guys, this signal was/is CRAZY... Check the post, the original one, all time-stamped... And all between till this one.... BTW plotting chart in retrospect somewhat distorts time as you can see... But you have the previous charts as well the price at the time of the post... So the current (still tracking!) potential is 4058%+/trade (which is x41,58 multiplication/trade!)... Which would mean we would only need LESS than 2 of those IN A LIFETIME... starting with...
Guys, I said I stopped tracking this signal because In really we would most probably be happy running with 4000%/trade if not much sooner, but it still amazes me...
Should the entry be kept open, this it would be almost 6000%/trade already... about x60 on the deposit... Imagine depositing 1k and get 60k out But yeah, at the same time you can see that no mater how big the price difference or return/trade... it still can not beat compounded trades with much less return/trade... for example... at 100%/trade we would "catch" it in n=6 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1000*2%5E6
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #444
  • Feb 4, 2020 11:45am Feb 4, 2020 11:45am
Market status... overall.. not happy with current market developments... So far from CHEETAH entries atm... Awaiting this to settle down.. Controlling parameter indicates disconnect...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #445
  • Feb 4, 2020 1:44pm Feb 4, 2020 1:44pm
Quoting auricforecas
Market status... overall.. not happy with current market developments... So far from CHEETAH entries atm... Awaiting this to settle down.. Controlling parameter indicates disconnect...
update: my model suggests (me) not to trade until certain indicators/parameters come back again... There are quite some disturbances, anomalies atm... Market does not respond/correlate with my model atm... I can not quantify the current virus situation in it.. just know that it is highly uncertain right now... So not trading cheetah till then... Hope/expect this can correct rather soon, by the end of this week... So planning to really attack in next week and on 15th we might have the fill/kill decision on PART3... So stay tuned.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #446
  • Feb 5, 2020 10:47am Feb 5, 2020 10:47am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} update: my model suggests (me) not to trade until certain indicators/parameters come back again... There are quite some disturbances, anomalies atm... Market does not respond/correlate with my model atm... I can not quantify the current virus situation in it.. just know that it is highly uncertain right now... So not trading cheetah till then... Hope/expect this can correct rather soon, by the end of this week... So planning to really attack in next week and on 15th we might have the fill/kill decision on PART3... So stay tuned.
Guys, model is completely disconnected atm... Can not locate a the precise reason but just saying that is EXTREMELY unusual... Either broken, which would be hard (coincidence) to happen just now after 10+ years (although there were "dark" times) OR something temporary very UNNATURAL is happening to influence this...
Not sure to which thing would I "assign" this, will have more data next week, early to latest end of next week.. To soo to make any (radical) conclusions right now...

But I can tell you this, if the model (still) works... we WILL see some RADICAL rebound/correction next week, the latest
STRONG ONE Timestamped.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #447
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:08am Feb 5, 2020 11:08am
BTW guys one more thing... the last/many times this happens... there is a STRONG correction afterwards.. Remember that 4000%+/trade signal potential I posted here? It happened after Strong disconnect happened within a week before that epic entry... Recognising similar pattern now... Certain market could rebound AF!
I am observing/tracking it... Will report... Just noticed there now might be some connection but still strongly disconnected.. so either broken or EPIC*EPIC opportunity to trade this BACK TO NORMAL/TRACKS... adjustment...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #448
  • Feb 5, 2020 12:03pm Feb 5, 2020 12:03pm
Ok current status... It seems we have a complete disconect right now... So I am waiting for this to go where it would run out of steam... and THEN...
would exploit the rebounds/retracements/corrections AF... So stay tuned... Right now I have no choice than to observe the markets... but when the right opportunity/ies appear... strike it merciless...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #449
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:31pm Feb 6, 2020 12:31pm
Quoting auricforecas
Ok current status... It seems we have a complete disconect right now... So I am waiting for this to go where it would run out of steam... and THEN... would exploit the rebounds/retracements/corrections AF... So stay tuned... Right now I have no choice than to observe the markets... but when the right opportunity/ies appear... strike it merciless...
Re-afirmed above views... My model went into "Know when not to trade" for the rest of the week... Complete disconect from market atm...
Something going on... I might have a clue but nothing conclusive as of yet... Will report about it next week... Massive opportunity coming out of this mess, if I am right...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #450
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:49pm Feb 6, 2020 12:49pm
Guys, I don't know what to tell you right now... This speech would fit best... Recheck your priorities/wishes and prepare for NEXT WEEK... Might be epic.. or...
Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #451
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:19pm Feb 7, 2020 1:19pm
Guys, I believe there are almost ALL HANDS ON DECK on the table right now... We are in FINAL WEEK before making almost final decision to either FILL/KILL this PART3 operation (check previous post if you do not know what PART3 is)... BTW I have increased my model('s matrix) to almost maximum capacity, will add certain power by the day... And we SHALL have the CRITICAL DATA by the end of NEXT WEEK... BTW if all goes well or at least it would appear to go that way, by the day... I have to increase (computing) power much... Have spend for the last days checking the new hardware and some amazing additional power/tools out there (without making any commercial here) that would help up boost the game MUCH... So as soon this cheetah throw something concrete... will re-invest quite some into some serious computing power that would/might increase the precision much so that we might actually trade "LIKE A BOSS" even within those limitations that brokers have... spread, stop-out etc... for cheetahs at 500:1 max... Of course as the account grows, more individual treatment will come from brokers and the less the "LOT" size limit will be the actual "LIMIT", if it maybe is now for higher "n"s anyway...

Would love tho show you the beauty of the new setup but for now I think I can at least test+make some considerable money even with the setup/hardware that is avaiable now... But at higher game the whole setup, algo and even location... will adapt to higher game, if we get there of course...

So to sum up... The NEXT week might not be the ultimate PROOF that it can be done but if we at least get past the "it can't be (reasonable) done", that would be green light enough at this level, to deposit 250USD and than we increase the game/data by the days So stay tuned! Game changer next week! One way or the other! Waiting or status quo will soon be no more

Quote from above clip that I find suitable
“It’s all hands on deck now, Sam. There’s going to be a lot of money to be made coming out of this mess. And we’re going to need all the brains we can get around here.” Margin Call

As always, all (brains) welcome, to make this EPIC, together... GROUP TRADE FTW!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #452
  • Feb 9, 2020 9:00am Feb 9, 2020 9:00am
Ok so the next week I expect to have almost final conclusion about the PART3...
Depending on where the market will go vs. expected and precision (error) window...
I expect optimal leverage would be 100-500:1... maybe 200:1... and price difference to aim for about .12-48... Since we are paying/entering .03 for the spread it is hard to get less than 50% stop-out, if at all...

For example ICmarkets does provide 500:1 for GOLD and WTI... at 50% stop-out so for WTI that would mean you have abut .03 margin for error since .03 are spread cost and -.06 is 50% stop-out at full position entered... (500:1 max position WTI is 100%/trade at .12 price difference).

FXpro (global) provide 100:1 (till certain volume) for WTI for example... and 200:1 for GOLD, but the stop-out is 20%... which in practical terms would mean
we have more room for error at same leverage (which this cheetah is all about, entry within small margin of error for certain return aka price difference). Might have made I mistake in cacls since I type this out of head/memory atm, but will re-test soon... if things go well next week..

What I am trying to say that I am in particular/mainly interested in ERROR of price difference for GOLD or WTI... because in WTI case 100:1 would be MUCH more realistic to enter without CRAZY precision... because at 100:1.. and 20% stop-out we would have .40 of ROOM (turning radius) before trade develops where we want it.. But yeah, would need .50 price difference to get 100%/trade...

So it is all about the stat/data... Obviously ideally would be to enter within .03 at 500:1 max and get 100%/trade at (every) .12 price difference...
But that is very hard when stop-out is 50% and spread is .03... If we can find another 500:1 max broker with lower/st spread and low/est stop-out, that would be much different, but for now we operate with tools we have at hand...

So next week, 10-15FEB.. I hope to get as much reliable/representable data as possible and would than see if we can draw any conclusion/estimation out of it...
Maybe we would start PART3 at 500:1 MAX or at 200:1 or 100:1... All down to stat because the idea is to get as much "n"s (100%+/trade) as possible, in a row...
So now all we can do is wait for the market to open and attack it..

Btw.. Hope "certain events" won't influence the market too much.. otherwise we would have to price that in...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #453
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:25pm Feb 10, 2020 12:25pm
Heh, when I see the results of the market, it reminds me of below quote... Nothing conclusive as of yet, although not GOOD either... Week started with below expectations... But I am (very) optimistic (at least for now) for the SECOND half/part of the week when I bet on the SPOOLing up of the markets...

Inserted Video


Feel like that atm:
Inserted Video


Much more (representable) data expected on 12,13,14FEB... Hopefully first (semi-reliable) conclusion by 15FEB2020.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #454
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:42pm Feb 10, 2020 12:42pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Guys, I said I stopped tracking this signal because In really we would most probably be happy running with 4000%/trade if not much sooner, but it still amazes me... Should the entry be kept open, this it would be almost 6000%/trade already... about x60 on the deposit... Imagine depositing 1k and get 60k out But yeah, at the same time you can see that no mater how big the price difference or return/trade... it still can not beat compounded trades with much...
Well, this trade quote above still surprises me.. since it still wouldn't be stopped at that entry... Do not know how many those kind one can repeat, if at all, in a year...
But this above quoted (check (chain of) quotes within quotes) and you will see the whole stroy...) signal is ALREADY at 6250% (x63 on the deposit or position) which would mean... One could blow 50x the trials and this one would still make it worthwhile BTW ANOTHER signal of this kind could happen NEXT month or even at the end of this one since there might be STRONG (seasoanlity + measures inspired) REVERSAL for months... so if one could enter at "bottom", he could see price and profits rising... Also.. one would have rather good number of "n"s to waste and still be worthwhile... For example.. one could try 20 times to enter at bottom and then see the profits rising by the day TILL THE FALL!! So there you have it, strong mindf... opportunity in the horizon, to open your mind
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #455
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:03pm Feb 10, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting auricforecas
For example.. one could try 20 times to enter at bottom and then see the profits rising by the day TILL THE FALL!! So there you have it, strong mindf... opportunity in the horizon, to open your mind
Maybe we now are on that "near bottom" point:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wti_weekly_support.png Size: 36 KB


And here some stats regarding WTI price seasonality:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wti_seasonality.png Size: 95 KB


what do you think?
  • #456
  • Feb 10, 2020 2:08pm Feb 10, 2020 2:08pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} Maybe we now are on that "near bottom" point: {image} And here some stats regarding WTI price seasonality: {image} what do you think?
Yes, very might be, but would wait at least till end of this week and possible next, before trying to LOCK that bottom. Since if you look the chart you attached we might be about 2 weeks from that point... It really appears to kick in at/by the end of the FEB... Some additional chart...

Also consider the SWAPS at long positions...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: seasonality-in-WTI-futures.jpg Size: 36 KB

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/c...onality-2019-3
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #457
  • Feb 12, 2020 11:45am Feb 12, 2020 11:45am
Guys model suggests a DISCONNECT, at least atm... OR some BIG(est) parameter plays so much of an influence in the market that everything really roles around it... Not mentioning which till confirmed of course, but just saying.. Either DISCONNECT or MASSIVE reversal(s) next week. Also start to think how much of it is due to nCoV... Now it became a much more serious issue... People started to think about it, even in EU.. and act about it (not traveling etc)... Will see next week...
I bet there will be more critical data... But until I have more data, am not gambling, therefore NOT TRADING atm... But will resume next week... If the early in the next week we will see some important changes, otherwise, better to be out...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #458
  • Feb 13, 2020 11:50am Feb 13, 2020 11:50am
Quoting auricforecas
Guys model suggests a DISCONNECT, at least atm... OR some BIG(est) parameter plays so much of an influence in the market that everything really roles around it... Not mentioning which till confirmed of course, but just saying.. Either DISCONNECT or MASSIVE reversal(s) next week. Also start to think how much of it is due to nCoV... Now it became a much more serious issue... People started to think about it, even in EU.. and act about it (not traveling etc)... Will see next week... I bet there will be more critical data... But until I have more data,...
Much better news, maybe... Due to new info it might be concluded that MODEL might still work as it should, it just operates under ALTERNATE solution, which is... when it is "wrong", it is "really wrong", which means, whenever (as has been true for the last 10+ years), when the price moves COUNTER (heavy) vs what is EXPECTED.. it means (apart of what is always possible; that the model is dead or that it never worked at all - we should always leave that open for either analysis of course) that some HEAVY/STRONG counter pressure is forming temporary... And this is exactly what appears now... I didn't want to jump on the nCoV train/blame but now the more official news/articles are suggestion more serious panic therefore people acting MUCH differently than they would at normal conditions.. And it appears that the important "thing" that this model is based on... is DISCONNECTED (uncorrelated) for mentioned reasons..

Alternative trading would be to exploit this safety/PANIC trading but... I would much prefer to trade according to the model as oppose as jumping on this and be clueless when/if it ends... So awaiting for some CRITICAL data EARLY next week and then will see either JUMPING on counter/panic TRADE as the MASSES.. or WAITING till model('s) correlation resumes, hopefully...

Rather not to trade than to LOSE since for every 10% drop we would need to be 25% successful afterwards to get back and atm I can not afford to take that chance, to gamble at this DISCONNECT... Unless I trade on this very thing, disconnect; meaning trading OPPOSITE of what "it should be"...

More data FOLLOWS in the beginning of next week... For the week, I believe we are pretty much done now because I certainly won't (re)start on/this/tomorrow Friday
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #459
  • Feb 13, 2020 3:18pm Feb 13, 2020 3:18pm
Thinking of jumping on the PANIC train... haven't seen such a BIG movement in certain time period.. for a long time... So am thinking of just jumping IN...
What do you say? Currently (if the fear/contingency train continous...)... the GOLD BUY and EURUSD SHORT seems to be the safest bet! But one has to watch careful since STRONG reversal might happen in a blink... But till it doesn't... might be epic opportunity because seems STRONG nCoV surfing AF!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #460
  • Feb 13, 2020 4:15pm Feb 13, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting auricforecas
Thinking of jumping on the PANIC train... haven't seen such a BIG movement in certain time period.. for a long time... So am thinking of just jumping IN... What do you say? Currently (if the fear/contingency train continous...)... the GOLD BUY and EURUSD SHORT seems to be the safest bet! But one has to watch careful since STRONG reversal might happen in a blink... But till it doesn't... might be epic opportunity because seems STRONG nCoV surfing AF!
Ok made some heavy recalcs now... I re-modelled it assuming DISCONNECT or MARKET PANIC mode... I mean in PANIC/FEAR mode... market still follow certain rules... I applied this condition in my model and pre-testing it now... might have data soon since I put in ON now on LIVE market and awaiting results... Have put a small timeframe for this small pre-test, just to have some BRIEF asap... But the current possible solutions are forming for the EARLY to MAX mid next week...
Either I will be TRADING as the MODEL suggests in somewhat normal conditions (I mean market normal, with all it's usual spikes, waves, "cycles", rebounds etc.. but somewhat normal, at least to traders that have been in this field LONG (10+ years)... or will I DISABLE "normal" trading and HARVEST this CORONA situation... OR, 3rd option, NOT TRADING till the market settles... So this is the summary, if you don't have time/will to read

Current possible options for trading:

  1. Trading by my price prediction model of 10+ years (long, short or cheetah-term/timeframe)
  2. Trading FEAR/Panic/"Fire Sale"/nCoV
  3. Not Trading till "normal" conditions resume

Expected decision: 20FEB2020

Can you afford to take that chance?
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