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Attachments: CHEETAH Trading (100%+ per trade or up to 500% or more)
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CHEETAH Trading (100%+ per trade or up to 500% or more)

  • #401
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:42pm Jan 28, 2020 5:42pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} oh crap, red the chart wrong, though it was stopped already but (was) profit was "0" at exact time I looked at it so I though it is closed already... anyway... still in the TRADE (10%/trade atm)... but will close at/if EVEN and go to sleep, so let's wait a little
20%
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #402
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:44pm Jan 28, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 20%
45%
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #403
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:50pm Jan 28, 2020 5:50pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 45%
63%
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #404
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:50pm Jan 28, 2020 5:50pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 63%
81%
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #405
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:51pm Jan 28, 2020 5:51pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 81%
90%
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #406
  • Jan 28, 2020 5:52pm Jan 28, 2020 5:52pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 90%
100% and CLOSED the trade at that! quick report follows
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #407
  • Jan 28, 2020 6:09pm Jan 28, 2020 6:09pm
Quoting auricforecas
Guys, controlling paramter seems to be improving... Might have more/vital info in the next 24h.. or by morning (in 8h) even... if it goes "extremely" well... Gives me a little more "confidence" now.. Anyone in WTI BUY right now? Appears to be EPIC buy/retracement opportunities... Just a though, this is not a signal but just saying...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well checking at controlling parameter now improving, got me curious what WTI open will bring...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} changed my mind... this is a semi-signal now... but can not give you the ENTRY since market close, at least at my broker... for WTI... But would advise to check for BUY entries at WTI... Not sure how market open would be (just in case of some mess, micro-spikes) but would be looking for BUY if it would look OK to enter.. based on that... select according LEV.. if in doubt...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} be alert for WTI market open in a few minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp0_Y72ARlA
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Im in! ENTERED at open!
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} exited at even, awaiting NEW ENTRY opportunity
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 2nd attempt, entered...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} exited at even back to semi-signal... would wait for optimal WTI BUY opportunity... "ideally" after some temp linear forms first to ride it
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 3/3 attempt in the series... before going to sleep, entered WTI BUY, now
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} OK aborted, going to sleep now... would still watch for BUT opportunity, but maybe not the best time right now to enter.. that might change soon but can not track it right now..
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} OK just one MORE quick attempt before going to sleep.. if it messes... I stop this signal... so WTI BUY
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} went to 40%+/trade profit in this 4th attempt.. then dropped and exited at even... btw do not usually put SL at even but at this time, this part of the day, hour... and very risky to enter "cold turkey" style... since market open... much easier to jump on some at least somewhat linear already... So ABORTED... Now really going to sleep... Will have more luck next time... BTW reminded myself many times not to trade at this hour/conditions
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} btw if you have time would advise to check for WTI buy opportunity still... I would wait for somewhat "linear" (up) pattern to form, at least a little, before jumping in... but can not track it now obviously... will have more luck tomorrow maybe and during the DAY (my time
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} oh crap, red the chart wrong, though it was stopped already but (was) profit was "0" at exact time I looked at it so I though it is closed already... anyway... still in the TRADE (10%/trade atm)... but will close at/if EVEN and go to sleep, so let's wait a little
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 20%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 45%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 63%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 81%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 90%
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} 100% and CLOSED the trade at that! quick report follows
Here above is a complete journal of this last signal that happened (100%/trade) in 4th attempt... I posted live as much as I could... so that you can see how it looks.. But this was not the best time of the day, not the cleanest entry... But still managed to get to 100%/trade and then CLOSED.. won't track it further since it was long and risky to get here already... No further signals atm, all previous not tracked anymore..

At first attempt... I entered at market open, surprisingly there was time for that and then it jumped to like 40%/trade and then fall, closed at even... then 2nd attempt, 3rd attempt.. aborted/exited at even.. and then this BONUS, 4th attempt... also looked much better by the time, although not great.. some small slope (linear) forming.. so confidence built a little, helped through this stall... Live-posted increase and exited at 100%/trade since that seems to be the "sweet" spot judging by stat so far, specially at those market conditions, hour and uncertainty...

I opted to enter market in this hour only because controlling parameter indicated WTI BUY (retracement etc...) so I wanted to try asap... And it went/spiked (micro) up at market open, then fall.. but then started to pickup micro/mini-linearly... so I stayed in the trade till 100%/trade... Also you can see the mess/crap I warned (after market opens) you above... I much prefer to enter at market during the day (or LON times) and after some pattern already forms.. This was pure cold turkey, dead entry and almost worst market conditions, hour... but this controlling parameter gave me some confidence...

Also hope you saw that it is no so ideal/romantic as some though... Let alone making a 100%+/trade EA that would spit money (millions) (forever) out of 100USD deposit BUT! On the good side is that we only need 12 of those (at 100%/trade and much less "n"s at higher % of course), in a row, in a lifetime and then be SET... for much calmer trading

Some quick snapshot...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-01-29 at 01.03.10.png Size: 121 KB
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #408
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:45am Jan 29, 2020 12:45am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Here above is a complete journal of this last signal that happened (100%/trade) in 4th attempt... I posted live as much as I could... so that you can see how it looks.. But this was not the best time of the day, not the cleanest entry... But still managed to get to 100%/trade and then CLOSED.. won't track it further since it was long and risky to get here already... No further signals atm,...
well nice, compare chart in above post/quote with market after that... Nice entry point that was, see the ("linear") rise after, great for entries... I tried to enter at difficult, open times and was able to in 4th attempt... later it seemed much easier since some "linear" rise already formed...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #409
  • Jan 29, 2020 1:28am Jan 29, 2020 1:28am
Quoting auricforecas
Guys, controlling paramter seems to be improving... Might have more/vital info in the next 24h.. or by morning (in 8h) even... if it goes "extremely" well... Gives me a little more "confidence" now.. Anyone in WTI BUY right now? Appears to be EPIC buy/retracement opportunities... Just a though, this is not a signal but just saying...
what is "controlling parameter"? can you share rules for entry? some indicator?
  • #410
  • Jan 29, 2020 1:49am Jan 29, 2020 1:49am
Quoting geniousphp
I have a strategy that is having more than 30 consecutive wins so far. But the ratio isn't that good (TP=6 and SL=10). I'm not sure if I can utilize Cheetah to get the most of my system but in the same time I don't want to use market makers that offer high leverage 1:1000 and more
You can use your strategy to enter the cheetah deal. When price would hit TP (for example 5 pips), then move SL to break-even and move TP to get 100% profit from the deal. But as dont know rules of your strategy then dont know will it work... For breakouts it would work for example if breakout happened because of strong news. Maybe you can combine your strategy with news?

Have noticed such statistics while developing/backtesting a lot of EAs for risk/reward ratio and profitable deals % (+/- 5% depending on strategy for entry):
1) Risk 1 reward 9 - will be 10% profitable deals in longterm (from 200 total deals)
2) Risk 2 reward 8 - 20% profitable
3) Risk 3 reward 7 - 30%
4) Risk 4 reward 6 - 40%
5) Risk 5 reward 5 - 50 %
6) Risk 6 reward 4 - 60 % (here comes a lot of series with n=3 and n=6)
7) Risk 7 reward 3 - 70% (here comes series with n > 10, sometimes even n > 30, depending on strategy)
8) Risk 8 reward 2 - 80%
9) Risk 9 reward 1 - 90%

So your strategy with risk 5 and reward 3 could produce about 65-75% profitable deals. And yes here n can be >30.

In my cheetah style i use a negative risk/reward ratio for entry. For example, SL22 and TP28 would give 100% profit or 100% lose. When I enter the deal I wait for 20% movement in the desired direction. I have no SL at that moment. So I risk with SL22 (with stop out) to get to TP5. So about 80% of attempts I will get 20% and will put protective SL on break-even. Therefore I hunt extremes (for example breakouts/retraces of support/resistance levels or Bollinger band up/down touches etc). I look for flat then wait for breakout - this is another entry condition. Because when some level is breaked then usually is strong movement of price till the next level (flat). And yes I use statistics from my runing EAs to confirm and use news/calendar to get the best conditions for entries.

The market is 70% in flat and 30% in trend (strong move).

Do you have EA for your strategy or manually?
  • #411
  • Jan 29, 2020 3:12am Jan 29, 2020 3:12am
Quoting joyny
{quote} You can use your strategy to enter the cheetah deal. When price would hit TP (for example 5 pips), then move SL to break-even and move TP to get 100% profit from the deal. But as dont know rules of your strategy then dont know will it work... For breakouts it would work for example if breakout happened because of strong news. Maybe you can combine your strategy with news? Have noticed such statistics while developing/backtesting a lot of EAs for risk/reward ratio and profitable deals % (+/- 5% depending on strategy for entry): 1) Risk 1...
For my EA strategy, it's mainly night scalper when the market is calm and ranging and if I move the SL to BE, it's more likely it's going to be hit because the market is ranging at night.
Now, that I'm in n > 30, there is more chance it's going to lose in the upcoming signals (this sounds like gambler fallacy) and I don't have the cheetah psychology, patience and also capital for the moment. Maybe in the future I'll try it again. But for the moment, I'm sticking to the easiest MM which is fixed lot size.
Maybe I'll try the "roulette trader" strategy which can be less risky
Example
1) Trade1, risk=25%
2) Trade2, risk=25%
All the next trades are risk free
3) Trade3, risk all trade 1 and trade 2 profit
4) Trade4, risk all trade 1, trade 2 and trade 3 profit
and so on...
until n=10 for example

The example above can be adapted depending on your risk reward ratio
  • #412
  • Jan 29, 2020 3:51am Jan 29, 2020 3:51am
Quoting geniousphp
Now, that I'm in n > 30, there is more chance it's going to lose in the upcoming signals (this sounds like gambler fallacy)
That's pure mathematics... Everywhere is some kind of risk involved. And it can be calculated if you have enough data.

If you have EA then you can run backtests for history and will get data to calculate probabilities. Win/lose series.

Let's say if in 10 years history, with about 500 deals an EA has maximum negative deals in row 2, and you see that recently have got 2 negative deals in a row - your decision? I would go for a cheetah deal here. Yes, it can hit SL... anomalies happen.. but 99% it will hit TP.

With statistics, you can predict the future. For example, you can predict what narrative will be in upcoming news... Because you see from statistic what happened with previous n breakouts... everybody in doubt "What message BOE will deliver?" but you know with 99% certainty. See this my prediction based on statistic: https://www.metalsmine.com/showthrea...5#post12710855

So believe you definitely can use an EA for statistically based decisions. But better with risk/reward ratio closer to 4/3 or 5/4 (so about 60-65% profit deals - that statistic will be more reliable/usable).

And yes - no guaranties as usually
  • #413
  • Jan 29, 2020 7:36am Jan 29, 2020 7:36am
Quoting joyny
I am now long with DJI30. There was breakout of resistance level H4 and D1 RSI is oversold. This trade could take some time, maybe several days because of coronavirus fear. This is last one hunt for n=3 on demo account. That's it. Dont want to waste my wining "n-s" on demo... feel a little bit frustrated because on every demo success I purge my statistical probability to success on real. For example, if I had 6 n-s on the demo, then go for real n=6 then the total target would be n=12... I am not so good... so yes, let this be my last trade on demo....
So closed deal with profit of 261 USD. The current balance 642 USD, starting from 100 USD in 12 days. So far n=2.5. Will wait now for DJI30 retrace (as for now trend is bullish) in M5 chart touches lower Boilinnger Band. Enter then for BUY but bigger volume (reinvest already earned). Because of today red US news in the evening. And NY opening after 30 min. So need to see what happens. Maybe after 2 hours will open a deal to finish n=3 journey.
  • #414
  • Jan 29, 2020 8:24am Jan 29, 2020 8:24am
Quoting joyny
{quote} That's pure mathematics... Everywhere is some kind of risk involved. And it can be calculated if you have enough data. If you have EA then you can run backtests for history and will get data to calculate probabilities. Win/lose series. Let's say if in 10 years history, with about 500 deals an EA has maximum negative deals in row 2, and you see that recently have got 2 negative deals in a row - your decision? I would go for a cheetah deal here. Yes, it can hit SL... anomalies happen.. but 99% it will hit TP. With statistics, you can predict...
For my EA, I already have backtests of 8 years. The win rate is between 66%-84%
'2012': 76.77%
'2013': 78.75%
'2014': 75.47%
'2015': 70.74%
'2016': 71.86%
'2017': 66.46%
'2018': 71.86%
'2019': 83.64%

I like how confident you are about predicting future with statistic and history though I don't agree with you. In the example you mentioned (EA has maximum negative deals in row 2, and you see that recently have got 2 negative deals in a row), based on that, you decided to go for cheetah but for me this is a gambler fallacy, because I think that trades independent from each other and losing 1,2 or 100 recent trades consecutively doesn't increase the probability to win the next trade, though the math confirms that the win rate will be around 74% in the long term . That's my point of view ad I might be wrong.
  • #415
  • Jan 29, 2020 10:59am Jan 29, 2020 10:59am
Quoting geniousphp
{quote} For my EA, I already have backtests of 8 years. The win rate is between 66%-84% '2012': 76.77% '2013': 78.75% '2014': 75.47% '2015': 70.74% '2016': 71.86% '2017': 66.46% '2018': 71.86% '2019': 83.64% I like how confident you are about predicting future with statistic and history though I don't agree with you. In the example you mentioned (EA has maximum negative deals in row 2, and you see that recently have got 2 negative deals in a row), based on that, you decided to go for cheetah but for me this is a gambler fallacy, because I think...
"Study the past, if you would divine the future." - Confucius

Insurance business operate trilions usd and all 100% rely on statistic calculations to make decisions regarding money.

Great results of your EA. Tnx for sharing. Tnx for ideas. It is ok to have different views. I admit that i overrely on statistics. Hope to learn to proper combination of stats and fundamentals.
  • #416
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:06pm Jan 29, 2020 12:06pm
Quoting joyny
{quote} what is "controlling parameter"? can you share rules for entry? some indicator?
This one is not what you think It is just my price prediction model applied to the market it was most tested on to see how/if it works, nothing else
So rules for entry based on it are.. the more/better it works on this "calibrating" market (not relevant which it is) the greater the chance (from previous experiences) it might work on WTI and/or GOLD also
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #417
  • Edited 12:21pm Jan 29, 2020 12:10pm | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Here above is a complete journal of this last signal that happened (100%/trade) in 4th attempt... I posted live as much as I could... so that you can see how it looks.. But this was not the best time of the day, not the cleanest entry... But still managed to get to 100%/trade and then CLOSED.. won't track it further since it was long and risky to get here already... No further signals atm,...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} well nice, compare chart in above post/quote with market after that... Nice entry point that was, see the ("linear") rise after, great for entries... I tried to enter at difficult, open times and was able to in 4th attempt... later it seemed much easier since some "linear" rise already formed...
Ok so this signal that I have entered in 4th attempt peaked at 440%-525%/trade... Not bad considering suboptimal time (of the day) for entry

Check the link in first quote above, for full journey of this signal (series) till this one.

Check the pic... Entry (4th attempt) was timestamped in this thread...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2020-01-29 at 19.15.19.png Size: 86 KB
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #418
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:26pm Jan 29, 2020 12:26pm
GUYS, suspect optimal SHORT WTI ENTRY opportunities... awaiting the optimal strike as I type!!!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #419
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:27pm Jan 29, 2020 12:27pm
Quoting auricforecas
GUYS, suspect optimal SHORT WTI ENTRY opportunities... awaiting the optimal strike as I type!!!
Entered the sucker.. AM SHORT RIGHT NOW.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #420
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:30pm Jan 29, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Entered the sucker.. AM SHORT RIGHT NOW.
looked good at first.. exited at EVEN, blah... Still believe GOOD WTI SELL opportunity, just have to re-enter SHARPER
Can you afford to take that chance?
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