Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis | Page 37 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Forex smart money concepts 97 replies

Price Action & Fundamentals with Smart Money 79 replies

Discussion about Smart Money 1 reply

Trading Smart Money 2 replies

Attachments: Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
Exit Attachments

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

  • #721
  • Nov 11, 2019 11:17am Nov 11, 2019 11:17am
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 38%, SS – 28% / FTG Score / D 10.1, W -23.7, M -39.3 / We have a pretty large bearish cot change signal accompanied by bearish weekly and monthly FTG scores. Without any significant extreme in the market, we can expect prices to fall in the next couple of weeks. VIX COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -48.3, W -35.4, M -22.9/ All time bullish extreme in the VIX may also be considered...
Tnx man, for regular postings, updates... Can you please just sum up the maybe refined idea of this Trading System... and the latest updates, statistics... so that all of the new guys can also see what this SMART MONEY based TS is all about? Also any TradeExplorer (TE) and/or ExpertAdvistor (EA) attached to it?

I tried to find the "juice" of it but would rather if you could state it more directly like "The juice of this TS is:..." Tnx
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #722
  • Nov 11, 2019 1:17pm Nov 11, 2019 1:17pm
Quoting AussieBob
Hey Guys, I come from the Larry Williams school of everything COT. Looks like you all do also and have taken it to the next level which is very interesting to me. I will follow your comments with great interest. Can I ask somebody to point me in the right direction as to clarity what "FTG score " means with Dustan's chart postings ? Thanx in advance.
https://www.futurestradingguides.com/features
  • #723
  • Nov 14, 2019 5:04am Nov 14, 2019 5:04am
Thanx for the info MoshiM . I'm onto it.
  • #724
  • Edited 5:57pm Dec 8, 2019 5:41pm | Edited 5:57pm
CHFUSD-Traders in Financial Futures

Been a while since I last posted one of these so I figured its time I got back into it.

Since August 2018 Asset Managers in the CHF contract have acted as the primary Reportable counter party to Dealer transactions on Net. Most notably earlier this year around May when Asset Managers reached an all time high in their short CHFUSD positions and the offloaded them resulting in an eventual shift in price down 500 pips on the USDCHF. Asset Managers have now roughly reached this extreme short position again but this time however, Leveraged Funds hold virtually no directional bias on net while Dealer "NET" long positions account for nearly 55% of Open Interest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-Daily.png Size: 31 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TFF-NET-CHFUSD-DEC-08-2019.png Size: 36 KB


Funnily enough there isn't much to indicate that anything abnormal is occurring outside of Asset Manager Positions in either the Legacy or Traders in Financial Futures reports. No obvious disparities in gross positions in the other groups, no large additions or subtractions save one slightly above average CHFUSD short addition by Non-Commercials for the Nov-26 release. Overall just completely ..... average.

Shorter Term Dealer Position Indexes along with Long:Short (96%...since October) Dealer positions ratios are about the only notable thing outside of Asset Manager Positions with Dealer 6 Month Indexes just breaching 80% in the most recent release of the COT report.

For now I'm abstaining from placing CHF orders, but if price were to rise to the top of the range (USDCHF) its been in since October or some significant retracement followed by a drop, I would definitely consider accumulating some long CHF positions, but for now it's just one to watch.

If you have an opinion I encourage you to share it.
Links to workbooks found in earlier posts or on my profile.

Dealer Indexes : WillCo is an Index of Dealer net positions/Open Interest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF-INDX-3Y-1Y.png Size: 77 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF-INDX-6M.png Size: 65 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF-Legacy-Net.png Size: 201 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHF-TFF-NET.png Size: 78 KB
  • #725
  • Dec 21, 2019 11:40am Dec 21, 2019 11:40am
Platinium is ready to head down again ?

Commercials are again increasing heavily their net short positions (-50k net shorts).
Everytime they increased their short that much, we had a down move on platium.

No reasons to be different this time, even with all the fuze about the "long metals" sentiment, which can be wrong

PS : it's just an analysis, not a trade decision

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_6.png Size: 138 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #726
  • Dec 21, 2019 5:18pm Dec 21, 2019 5:18pm
Quoting kuroro001
Platinium is ready to head down again ? Commercials are again increasing heavily their net short positions (-50k net shorts). Everytime they increased their short that much, we had a down move on platium. No reasons to be different this time, even with all the fuze about the "long metals" sentiment, which can be wrong PS : it's just an analysis, not a trade decision {image}
There's also an extreme in both net and gross positions.
  • #727
  • Dec 21, 2019 7:13pm Dec 21, 2019 7:13pm
✍ The Commitments of Traders (CoT) Report: Week #51


CoT data >>> Futures Only | Speculative | Based on Legacy Format
Current Week #51: 18th December 2019 (GMT +8)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019_Speculative_Week_no_51.png Size: 312 KB

CoT data >>> Futures & Options | Managed Money
Current Week #51: 18th December 2019 (GMT +8)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019_Managed_Week_no_51.png Size: 313 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #728
  • Dec 22, 2019 2:54am Dec 22, 2019 2:54am
Quoting v2vboni
✍ The Commitments of Traders (CoT) Report: Week #51 CoT data >>> Futures Only | Speculative | Based on Legacy Format Current Week #51: 18th December 2019 (GMT +8) {image} CoT data >>> Futures & Options | Managed Money Current Week #51: 18th December 2019 (GMT +8) {image}
HI. Where you have this report? Where I can find explanation for this report (speculators, institutions... Itc. What you follow and how you nou when is price go down and up)
Tnx for help
  • #729
  • Dec 22, 2019 11:01am Dec 22, 2019 11:01am
Palladium really rise ?

A chart explain better than a thousand words.
Smart money isn't really buying into this strength. They haven't increased their longs as prices rises, they decreased it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_8.png Size: 61 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #730
  • Edited 2:30pm Dec 22, 2019 11:19am | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting DraganSerbia
{quote} HI. Where you have this report? Where I can find explanation for this report (speculators, institutions... Itc. What you follow and how you nou when is price go down and up) Tnx for help
If v2vboni doesn't reply then you're welcome to use mine: Link
Note that there's a heavy use of macros to make ensure everything works correctly

As for your other questions Google is your friend. "The Commitments of Traders Bible" by Stephen Briese and "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report" by Larry Williams are two books that I would recommend (message me). Other than that they are plenty of articles for you to read through or you can take the time to comb through the historical data and analyze it for yourself [highly recommended].

Side Note Unrelated post ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I need help from someone with a MAC to test some code I've written, so that MAC users have the ability to download multiple weeks of data if they haven't opened the file in a while.
  • #731
  • Dec 22, 2019 12:22pm Dec 22, 2019 12:22pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} If v2vboni doesn't reply then you're welcome to use mine: Link Note that there's a heavy use of macros to make ensure everything works correctly As for your other questions Google is your friend. "The Commitments of Traders Bible" by Stephen Briese and "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report" by Larry Williams are two books that I would recommend (message me). Other than that they are plenty of articles for you to read through or you can take the time to comb through the...
Tnx MoshiM. A send you message
  • #732
  • Edited 3:39am Dec 27, 2019 2:02am | Edited 3:39am
Equities near top ?

Retailers are increasing their long positions at the top. We would need to wait for the new report tonight, but they have increased it more.

I'd be curious to see what did specs & commercials, see if they increased their shorts, meaning we would be at a top or very near.

Time will tell


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_10.png Size: 137 KB


PS : Not to mention that bullish sentiment is 88% yesterday night. We are grinding higher today, we may hit above 90% which won't be sustainable for long
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #733
  • Dec 27, 2019 3:34am Dec 27, 2019 3:34am
Dowjones gets ready ?

Chart says all, as we go higher, speculators are less & less longs.
Overall they hold long positions, but its lighter as we go up...they don't believe in the upmove anymore?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_11.png Size: 61 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #734
  • Dec 27, 2019 5:05pm Dec 27, 2019 5:05pm
Quoting kuroro001
Equities near top ? Retailers are increasing their long positions at the top. We would need to wait for the new report tonight, but they have increased it more. I'd be curious to see what did specs & commercials, see if they increased their shorts, meaning we would be at a top or very near. Time will tell {image} PS : Not to mention that bullish sentiment is 88% yesterday night. We are grinding higher today, we may hit above 90% which won't be sustainable for long
Interesting observation kuroro001. Do you think it would be useful if I created an indicator showing the spread between large and small speculators? I don't have a lot of experience with COT, but that data has always fascinated me.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #735
  • Dec 28, 2019 2:27am Dec 28, 2019 2:27am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Interesting observation kuroro001. Do you think it would be useful if I created an indicator showing the spread between large and small speculators? I don't have a lot of experience with COT, but that data has always fascinated me.
COT Data is awesome if you are investing on the long term

For most of the assets, small speculators are meaningless.
If you want to do something with the spread, first it needs to be from 0 to 100, second you can do it using the ratio between the long & short speculators, and the long & short commercials
So you'll see how strong/Weak (or extreme) is the Smart money
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #736
  • Dec 28, 2019 4:58am Dec 28, 2019 4:58am
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} If v2vboni doesn't reply then you're welcome to use mine: Link Note that there's a heavy use of macros to make ensure everything works correctly As for your other questions Google is your friend. "The Commitments of Traders Bible" by Stephen Briese and "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report" by Larry Williams are two books that I would recommend (message me). Other than that they are plenty of articles for you to read through or you can take the time to comb through the...
Thank you for providing the Link .
I want to day-trade equity indices options and futures.
Do you know of any links where this data is available in easy to analyse table or chart?
Weekly Cot is not that useful for the short-term traders.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #737
  • Dec 28, 2019 7:09am Dec 28, 2019 7:09am
Gold fake rise ?

Gold rising, world is thinking gold should be trading near the moon.

But it seems institutional traders are saying otherwise. Who to believe to ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_12.png Size: 69 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #738
  • Dec 28, 2019 11:22am Dec 28, 2019 11:22am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Thank you for providing the Link . I want to day-trade equity indices options and futures. Do you know of any links where this data is available in easy to analyse table or chart? Weekly Cot is not that useful for the short-term traders.
I'm not sure of what it is you're asking for. The Excel files in the DropBox folder contain the full history of the added contracts in both table and chart form while also updating whenever new data is released.

While I wouldn't recommend COT data for day-trading, you can certainly glean something of value from it.
  • #739
  • Edited 1:30am Dec 29, 2019 1:19am | Edited 1:30am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} COT Data is awesome if you are investing on the long term For most of the assets, small speculators are meaningless. If you want to do something with the spread, first it needs to be from 0 to 100, second you can do it using the ratio between the long & short speculators, and the long & short commercials So you'll see how strong/Weak (or extreme) is the Smart money
Thanks kuroro001!

I did some research into commercials vs large speculators vs small speculators. The CFTC actually uses different terminology for them:

  1. Commercials = Dealers
  2. Large Speculators = Asset Managers
  3. Small Speculators = Leveraged Funds

Based on what I've seen, Commercials basically just offset Small Speculator positions and I'm guessing they hedge so Commercial positions seem to be unimportant.

I'm not exactly clear on who Large Speculators and Small Speculators are. Large Speculators are institutional investors and Small Speculators are guys like us at home, but where do hedge funds, CTAs, and CPOs fit into the picture? They're operating off leverage so I'm thinking they might be classified as Small Speculators whereas Large Speculators are "real money" like endowment and pension funds.

In any event, I was able to get all the COT data from Quandl into R so it is easy to analyze. Here's a chart I created studying the % Long for Large Spectators and Small Speculators. I haven't put the time in yet to make it look nice so bare with me. lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 24 KB
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #740
  • Dec 29, 2019 3:20am Dec 29, 2019 3:20am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Thanks kuroro001! I did some research into commercials vs large speculators vs small speculators. The CFTC actually uses different terminology for them: Commercials = Dealers Large Speculators = Asset Managers Small Speculators = Leveraged Funds Based on what I've seen, Commercials basically just offset Small Speculator positions and I'm guessing they hedge so Commercial positions seem to be unimportant. I'm not exactly clear on who Large Speculators and Small Speculators are. Large Speculators are institutional investors and Small Speculators...
Very nice chart you got, nice work. Now check if it fits the s&p high/low points, or if there are divergences.

 

  1. Commercials = Hedgers, producers
  2. Large Speculators = Hedge funds, banks, different heavy funds
  3. Small Speculators = Retailers

This is the way i see it, and use it

Commercials are good at spotting tops/bottom when they are at the extreme
Large specs are trend followers
Small specs look useless

COT: The precious data ignored
1 trader viewing now