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Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

  • Post #701
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:30pm Jul 31, 2019 11:26am | Edited at 12:30pm
Small alteration to my last post: I meant offload my long positions not shorts (last paragraph)

Bug fixes
No one is reporting errors, which is strange because you can't use the files without running into them.

  1. Fixed an error where the wrong numbers were returned if the user has missed several weeks of data.(might not be a bug depending on how old the version you originally have is)
  2. Scripting.Dictionaries should now work for MACS [allows for new data to be added]
  3. No one asked for it but, speculative fix to get both sheet navigation and chart alternation for MACS was applied [accessed with CTRL+SHIFT+C. Other OS versions can use this as well] (message me, I have no way of testing this)
  4. New Contract Macro should function properly now.

Link

I'm willing to take a request if you can convince me of its usefulness.

  • Post #702
  • Quote
  • Edited at 4:31pm Aug 11, 2019 3:46pm | Edited at 4:31pm
Updates on Gold:

In lieu of the US ramping up tariffs on Chinese goods, Net Commercial positions have an reached an all time low at -378K with Non-Commercials just net 1k short of an all time high as well.
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Large change in gross positions over the past few weeks. I still find it interesting how willing Non-Commercials are to add on more spread positions in this environment. I can't be certain if it is longs adding on shorts or shorts adding on longs but in my opinion it's more likely the former of the two.

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I still hold a bearish outlook for Gold despite whatever shenanigans Donald Trump pulls.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Side Notes

  1. Anyone monitoring GBP? Interesting stuff going on.
  2. Files have been updated to fix index Charts on the Legacy report and as a result a function to auto-update user made charts has been added to all files (Read the ReadMe file for instructions). Same link as previous post.

Quoting MoshiM
I still hold a bearish outlook for Gold despite whatever shenanigans Donald Trump pulls. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Side Notes Anyone monitoring GBP? Interesting stuff going on. Files have been updated to fix index Charts on the Legacy report and as a result a function to auto-update user made charts has been added to all files (Read the ReadMe file for instructions). Same link as previous post.
Useful analysis, you make a strong case! I think Donald has some tricks up his sleeve that may push gold higher in the short term. We shall see!
Not sure how I miss this thread for past six months.


great great great posts so far.



I would like to subscribe and some how contribute back. I am now trading with fundamental and COT.


cheers
igz
Holy grail, pls pm :)
Hopefully this will be the last time I post about File updates.

  1. Fixed some bugs (Depending on the time you downloaded the files, this may not affect you.)
  2. User will now be automatically notified when a new version of the file [with macro updates , bug fixes , etc] is available.

Link

Hello everbody, I just found out about this thread. I am also using COT report for my analysis, lately I saw a big increase in short positions from Non-Commercial traders on NZD/USD (see image below).

What is your outlook on this currency pair? Anyone interested in taking short positions?
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Gold/USD Gold/EUR
Hi.When you get this excell report?Technically i see bearish trend,but this is maybe reversal.
Quoting thatguy22
Hello everbody, I just found out about this thread. I am also using COT report for my analysis, lately I saw a big increase in short positions from Non-Commercial traders on NZD/USD (see image below). What is your outlook on this currency pair? Anyone interested in taking short positions? {image}
I'm more interested in buying it.
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% /
FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 /
Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side.

Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 /
Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish case: all time cot extreme in Commercials and Large speculators position. There is a good change we will find the market higher in a few weeks, months.

Gold
COT Extreme / C - 164, LS – 155, SS - 343 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 35.1, W 3.7, M 3.0 /
After the thy dynamic strengthening of the last few weeks, we should not be surprised if gold pulls back a bit, This is well signaled in the commitments of traders report.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time Platinum COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% / FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 / Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side. Copper COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 / Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish...
New to these reports. What strikes me is the action around crosses of Commercials and large speculators ?
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Seems like it’s all about metals this time Platinum COT Change (52W) / C - 24%, LS – 25% / FTG Score / D 16.7, W 15.1, M -33.1 / Bearish cot changes signal together with bearish extreme and that strong FTG readings suggest to me that we have a great opportunity to enter the market from the short side. Copper COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / FTG Score / D -27.8, W -26.6, M -18.4 / Opposite to Platinum here we find a more bullish...
You can probably add sugar/NZD and to a lesser extent the GBP as well.
Gold
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Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 54%, LS – 54% /
FTG Score / D -24,1, W -36,7, M -25,9 /
All major cot signals are indicating that we have a good chance to see the market to rally.

Wheat (Minn.)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.7, W -31.3, M -29.7/
All time cot extremes are always highly valued, but we should be careful, since history has proven that we can be in such a place for a long time before we see the major trend change… Nevertheless we should be prepared to see Wheat go higher.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -28.6, W 26.4, M -45.2 /
Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Quoting Dunstan
Well I could simply copy+paste what I just wrote for Wheat but actually there are some differences here… If you look carefully, you may find Sugar to be in a bullish extreme since mid 2017, and we have still not been able to leave the bear market…. So even with this all time cot extreme, one should be willing to accept the high chance that Sugar will stay low even with such extremes! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts FOREX Trading Futures...
To be fair, it's more like there have been intermittent periods of bullish/bearishness in Sugar positions since 2017 that correspond quite nicely with price fluctuations while still maintaining the current downtrend. Given Sugar's responsiveness during this period when near the all time highs, like top 95-99%, I wouldn't be surprised if we see at lease some increase in price despite however short lived it may be.
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Quoting MoshiM
I still hold a bearish outlook for Gold despite whatever shenanigans Donald Trump pulls.
Bearish over what time horizon?
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} Bearish over what time horizon?
The next couple of months. In the latest report we had a large drop in positions by both Commercials and Non-Commercials. now coupling that with a possible net positive outcome for the USD as a result of Tomorrows's FED decisions and reports, I'm quite optimistic about being bearish Gold.
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Anyone have thoughts on oil ?
  • Post #718
  • Quote
  • Edited at 9:36am Oct 19, 2019 7:54am | Edited at 9:36am
I made a mistake in uploading the Files to Dropbox yesterday and as a result all the URLS used within the COT files had to be changed to avoid error messages every 10 minutes. So if you've downloaded the files in the past, I would greatly suggest doing so again. Sorry for the inconvenience.

DropBox Link
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C - 35%, LS – 38%, SS – 28% /
FTG Score / D 10.1, W -23.7, M -39.3 /
We have a pretty large bearish cot change signal accompanied by bearish weekly and monthly FTG scores. Without any significant extreme in the market, we can expect prices to fall in the next couple of weeks.

VIX
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -48.3, W -35.4, M -22.9/
All time bullish extreme in the VIX may also be considered a great signal for stock indexes (bearish). Of course as stated in the cot review, we should not neglect the possibility of further rises in the stress level = we could see greater extremes coming in the next couple of weeks.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – 108 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 51.8, W -13.8, M -19.6 /
We have a pretty nice bearish cot extreme in Soybean Oil, but caution is advised, daily FTG scores show great strength in the market.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
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Hey Guys, I come from the Larry Williams school of everything COT. Looks like you all do also and have taken it to the next level which is very interesting to me. I will follow your comments with great interest. Can I ask somebody to point me in the right direction as to clarity what "FTG score " means with Dustan's chart postings ? Thanx in advance.
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