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4 + 1 (Metals) strategy

  • #2,701
  • Dec 18, 2019 8:53pm Dec 18, 2019 8:53pm
19/12/19
Bearish daily close but prices remain locked inside the tight range between 1480 and 1472....As things stand the H1 is currently in the process of forming a bullish zone again while the H4 re,ains bullish. Given the continued daily close above the 1470 Handle, the Daily is currently sitting in neutral mode....As such overall Bias shifts to Neutral with a Bullish bias given the fact that the weekly zone remains in bullish territory, daily is neutral and H4 is bullish.
Now given the fact that there has been a sharp selloff whenever price touches the upper 1479/80 zone, any bullish setups will be trailed aggressively
and shorts opened at/near that handle but with care as it seems prices may look to break out higher, but till that happens,m we wash rinse and repeat the levels and setups....


H1: Neutral looking to flip bullish.
H4: Bullish and Zone: 1475.99 - 1474.42
D1: Neutral looking to flip bullish.
W1: Bullish and Zone: 1444.95 - 1471.36

Intra Day Levels
Upside
1488.42
1486.70
1483.86
1479.60
1478.21

Downside
1475.94
1474.90
1472
1469.59
1466.22
1461.56


Green Pips...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDDaily_LI.jpg Size: 577 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH4_LI.jpg Size: 592 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDWeekly_LI.jpg Size: 543 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,702
  • Dec 18, 2019 10:29pm Dec 18, 2019 10:29pm
Quoting MzansiObi
19/12/19 Bearish daily close but prices remain locked inside the tight range between 1480 and 1472....As things stand the H1 is currently in the process of forming a bullish zone again while the H4 re,ains bullish. Given the continued daily close above the 1470 Handle, the Daily is currently sitting in neutral mode....As such overall Bias shifts to Neutral with a Bullish bias given the fact that the weekly zone remains in bullish territory, daily is neutral and H4 is bullish. Now given the fact that there has been a sharp selloff whenever price...
after giving last weekly close north of 1468 (it was locked in 1458 - 1468 weekly close range for some time) -- this week i was waiting for 1467-68 to buy but yesterday it got bought at 1470 around and the kind of buying looks to warrant possibly a breakout higher. not sure of course. lets see. this trump impeachment thing can be a short term trigger. the overall pattern of movement with bottoming on weeklies is similar to what we saw around 1265 area.
  • #2,703
  • Dec 18, 2019 10:35pm Dec 18, 2019 10:35pm
Quoting prashfx
{quote} after giving last weekly close north of 1468 (it was locked in 1458 - 1468 weekly close range for some time) -- this week i was waiting for 1467-68 to buy but yesterday it got bought at 1470 around and the kind of buying looks to warrant possibly a breakout higher. not sure of course. lets see. this trump impeachment thing can be a short term trigger. the overall pattern of movement with bottoming on weeklies is similar to what we saw around 1265 area.
Agreed bud.
did you manage to get in long on that dip lower?

thinkkng we may have a retest of the lower 70’s again bullish impulse seems a little subdued at the moment
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,704
  • Dec 18, 2019 11:58pm Dec 18, 2019 11:58pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Agreed bud. did you manage to get in long on that dip lower? thinkkng we may have a retest of the lower 70’s again bullish impulse seems a little subdued at the moment
no i have been doing nothing on gold unfortunately. just waiting for it to break out either side and it appears to be north now. but will see. the 1445 around bounce was clean 38% retrace of the 1265 - 1556 move too.
  • #2,705
  • Dec 19, 2019 12:13am Dec 19, 2019 12:13am
Quoting prashfx
{quote} no i have been doing nothing on gold unfortunately. just waiting for it to break out either side and it appears to be north now. but will see. the 1445 around bounce was clean 38% retrace of the 1265 - 1556 move too.
my sentiments are mixed. like you said about perfect bounce of fib38 but i am also looking at few things.
on daily chart sma50 is crossing down sma150, furthermore sma200 is around 1438-40 which could be possible target before resuming higher.
we have currently divergence on h4 chart but still waiting on daily chart to show. if it gets to that low of 1438-1440, we will surely get divergence there.

Else if daily closes above 1495 then it will be confirmation of uptrend started.
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #2,706
  • Dec 19, 2019 1:26am Dec 19, 2019 1:26am
Something worth considering......should the current wedge resistance not hold as per the daily chart, it will validate the weekly bullish buy zone and the ensuing breakout could go into break out higher than the current yearly high....just looking at the wedge pattern...but it’s worth noting the longer time frame setups take much longer to play out as such we take note of them as and when price gets to certain handles......


1485 was key support for weeks on end so it only makes sense that anything near or close to the 1480-86 mark will be defended as it will change structural integrity of the market from a technical perspective......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,707
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:07am Dec 19, 2019 3:07am
Update:

London Hour Sold off.
H1 Flipping Bearish
Price below m15 200
we have broken below the daily open
as such pending short order at
1476.10
SL 1483.
TP Open


Green Pips
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,708
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:20am Dec 19, 2019 3:20am
[quote=MzansiObi;12669836]Something worth considering......should the current wedge resistance not hold as per the daily chart, it will validate the weekly bullish buy zone and the ensuing breakout could go into break out higher than the current yearly high....just looking at the wedge pattern...but it’s worth noting the longer time frame setups take much longer to play out as such we take note of them as and when price gets to certain handles...... 1485 was key support for weeks on end so it only makes sense that anything near or close to the 1480-86 mark will be defended as it will change structural integrity of the market from a technical perspective...... {image}[/quote
I see 1515 if breakout TL.
  • #2,709
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:39am Dec 19, 2019 3:39am
MzansiObi, you have been pushing price up and down since Monday, today is Thursday, please allow me to eat my bearish cake. I am not a scaler aahhhhhhh!
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #2,710
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:44am Dec 19, 2019 3:44am
...And finally, I can eat in peace...1462/1459 in view.
Until then, I ain't bullishing nada.

We Stay Alive dudes!
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #2,711
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:52am Dec 19, 2019 3:52am
So funny...I was ranking first in a demo contest all through last week until I got stuck in this trade by using up all of my available margin(this is demo contest) for this short position.

Since Monday, some guys overtook me, came first, but, the up and down movement of the market flung them somewhere else, I just can't stop laughing looking at the demo contest stat.
I have been maintaining my 2nd position since Monday, but the tide is about to be changed for good.

We Stay Alive in demo Contest oooooo
Learn... Work Hard... Trade Alone
  • #2,712
  • Dec 19, 2019 3:57am Dec 19, 2019 3:57am
Quoting BiteFX
MzansiObi, you have been pushing price up and down since Monday, today is Thursday, please allow me to eat my bearish cake. I am not a scaler aahhhhhhh!
Lol not at al bud, have merely been trying to follow the big boys bud.....but this range that we playing in does give everyone a chance to bag a few pips here and there.....bulls and bears...

Would like to see this inverse HnS on the H1 push prices higher so i can get that short filled.....
Patiently waiting....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,713
  • Dec 19, 2019 7:51am Dec 19, 2019 7:51am
Quoting MzansiObi
Update: London Hour Sold off. H1 Flipping Bearish Price below m15 200 we have broken below the daily open as such pending short order at 1476.10 SL 1483. TP Open Green Pips
When you see a strong impulse like this one, does it invalidate your idea or you are not to worry and still keeping your short ? thx bud !
  • #2,714
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:20am Dec 19, 2019 8:20am
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} When you see a strong impulse like this one, does it invalidate your idea or you are not to worry and still keeping your short ? thx bud !
Let it play out and look for the bearish confirmation(ie first bearish candle stick and look to see whether it closes above or below the level so in this case we are back above the m15 200 but we got two consecutive bearish candles, as soon as it dips lower than the m15 will load the short ) but if I’m concerned about it I will usually reduce position size....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,715
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:22am Dec 19, 2019 8:22am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Let it play out and look for the bearish confirmation(ie first bearish candle stick and look to see whether it closes above or below the level so in this case we are back above the m15 200 but we got two consecutive bearish candles, as soon as it dips lower than the m15 will load the short ) but if I’m concerned about it I will usually reduce position size....
Edit. Remember the H1 has flipped bearish too. But position size is key as we looking for today’s low as he first target and then yesterday’s and some of those downside levels
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,716
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:38am Dec 19, 2019 8:38am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Edit. Remember the H1 has flipped bearish too. But position size is key as we looking for today’s low as he first target and then yesterday’s and some of those downside levels
Im still waiting price to hit 1478 before selling
  • #2,717
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:55am Dec 19, 2019 8:55am
Quoting InfinityPip
{quote} Im still waiting price to hit 1478 before selling
Lovely Thats near the current range high(NICE)...I got in short on the spike down but see price is back up here again.....couldnt take partial profits, but me thinks that spike low area is ripe for a retest may require a bit of patience though...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,718
  • Dec 19, 2019 8:57am Dec 19, 2019 8:57am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Lovely Thats near the current range high(NICE)...I got in short on the spike down but see price is back up here again.....couldnt take partial profits, but me thinks that spike low area is ripe for a retest may require a bit of patience though...
Wait for some time it can touch 1477 set your sell limit
  • #2,719
  • Dec 19, 2019 9:38am Dec 19, 2019 9:38am
Quoting Zeshaankhan
{quote} Wait for some time it can touch 1477 set your sell limit
You filled Zeshaan?
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #2,720
  • Dec 19, 2019 11:05pm Dec 19, 2019 11:05pm
20/12/19

Yesterdays neutral D1 Buy zone produced a bounce higher in price....coincided well with the H4 Buy Zone of which has been the only zone that has held its shape throughout a range bound week. The daily close still capped inside the range but the H1 zone has turned bullish again with price currently using the handle as support.

Bearish RSI divergence on the H1 still present but the 1477.18 handle will become the first hurdle point for shorts and to the upside bulls will target the previous weekly high at 1486.74 as first target point..
With that said, the W1 is in bullish territory, D1 is in neutral to bullish territory, H4 Is bullish and and now so too is the H1. We are above the weekly open and above the 200 ma's on both the H1 and m15 as such buy dip mode comes into effect should we dip towards those levels and zones...


Currently have two sell setups in a bit of DD, but will wait and see what London does to decide whether or not to close out before stops get hit or leave the positions as is .


H1: Bullish and Zone: 1478.21 - 1477.48
H4: Bullish and Zone: 1476.94 - 1475.64
D1: Neutral and Zone: 1473.05


Intra day levels

Upside
1491.05
1488.64
1486.37
1484.39
1482.64
1481.17

Downside
1477.06
1474.23
1473.76
1467.73
1465.82




Green Pips to you all...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
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