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GOLD - XAUUSD /EUR (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

  • #21
  • Nov 7, 2019 2:40pm Nov 7, 2019 2:40pm
Just went into BUY.. Not perfect overall parameters.. but seems EPIC BUY opportunity atm.. even high(er) LEVERAGE one... NOW
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #22
  • Nov 7, 2019 2:42pm Nov 7, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting auricforecas
Just went into BUY.. Not perfect overall parameters.. but seems EPIC BUY opportunity atm.. even high(er) LEVERAGE one... NOW
Have just put money where my mouth is... Went into BUY... LIVE, high-leverage...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #23
  • Nov 7, 2019 3:07pm Nov 7, 2019 3:07pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Have just put money where my mouth is... Went into BUY... LIVE, high-leverage...
UPDATE... semi-automated EA - Expert Advisor (based on this TS - Trading System; this particular trade also in this published TE - Trade Explorer, attached to this thread) triggered this (sound) warning... I use those sounds for critical levels... warnings at high-leverage... trades. So will be pulling out at (small) POSITIVE, just to be on the safe side... Not a good part of the time to be in so high-lev position...

Will most probably open new TS thread (soon) for higher-risk trades, not to be mixed with this thread/TS that will be more focused on longterm, low risk but more stable climb... Because trading is different for different risk/leverage levels... Would I enter at lower leverage.. might just leave (forget) for a while But at high-leverage one has to be SHARP, focused af... CHEETAH style... Not for longterm
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24
  • Nov 7, 2019 3:24pm Nov 7, 2019 3:24pm
I can't figure out what is going on with GOLD RIGHT NOW. What triggered the sell off today. Missed the window out enjoying the nice fall weather.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #25
  • Nov 7, 2019 6:02pm Nov 7, 2019 6:02pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} UPDATE... semi-automated EA - Expert Advisor (based on this TS - Trading System; this particular trade also in this published TE - Trade Explorer, attached to this thread) triggered this (sound) warning... I use those sounds for critical levels... warnings at high-leverage... trades. So will be pulling out at (small) POSITIVE, just to be on the safe side... Not a good part of the time to be in so high-lev position... Will most probably open new TS thread (soon) for higher-risk trades,...
UPDATE: just Pulled-out (at slight profit, +0.2%; after I paid overnight swaps!)... because of very high leverage, size... check on this attached live TE...
Could not afford the chance with this right now, not at that high leverage at this market hours...

So as I have said... in this thread will remain focused on longer/stable term.. and not that high risk, specially DD (DrawDown) wise... or Return over DD wise... Will open separate thread for more ACTION/risky trades.. with high risk, high returns possible But was also happy for you to see some teaser/trailer about how HIGH risk live trade looks like... Had (maybe) an option to make some live profits while you were at it

So resuming stable equity climb goals for this TS thread
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #26
  • Nov 7, 2019 6:08pm Nov 7, 2019 6:08pm
Quoting SurfsUp
I can't figure out what is going on with GOLD RIGHT NOW. What triggered the sell off today. Missed the window out enjoying the nice fall weather.
Yeah, to be honest, I am not sure atm either, because markets are in HEAVY consolidation, almost terraforming levels... There is also some overlap at the moment, between previous and old... (overall) analysis (that includes other markets that affect gold also).. I am still waiting for previous to runs it course... since there are some things that still haven't rolled out... I think it will, maybe even today (Friday) or in the next week, the latest, hopefully... At which point I can remodel/recalculate new (expected) trends etc...

I would still bet on the GOLD being/going up, but this have to be confirmed within a week, tops, just to be a little more careful, just in case.. Specially since the goal is to remain profitable even if it takes a little longer... Better to save the money than trade to loss... Since one of my golden rules is: "Learn when not to trade".. Well you see, this is exactly now... Not trading for this week, just made one in previous post... to test the waters... Will track and watch closely.. remodell through weekend and then test it till middle of next week or latest till the end of it...

So stay tuned.. at the moment I still stick to the original plan/trend, but would like to build some more (fresh) data to the analysis/model until I raise "certainty" level for this
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #27
  • Nov 10, 2019 5:13pm Nov 10, 2019 5:13pm
I believe GOLD is VERY cheap atm.. but this will be rejected/re-confirmed by the end of this week, 11-15NOV.. Many were maybe fooled by this DROP... that might happened only/mainly because of the consolidation/correlation... Think GOLD is underpriced AF... But wait for confirmation, soon! And then we shall continue... with this trades/EAs...

Also will post some burners/quick-trades/CHEETAH... as soon as I see the opportunity and also... see if I will post this in NEW but combined thread with some other pair... or open a new dedicated one just for GOLD...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #28
  • Nov 11, 2019 11:19am Nov 11, 2019 11:19am
Quoting auricforecas
I believe GOLD is VERY cheap atm.. but this will be rejected/re-confirmed by the end of this week, 11-15NOV.. Many were maybe fooled by this DROP... that might happened only/mainly because of the consolidation/correlation... Think GOLD is underpriced AF... But wait for confirmation, soon! And then we shall continue... with this trades/EAs... Also will post some burners/quick-trades/CHEETAH... as soon as I see the opportunity and also... see if I will post this in NEW but combined thread with some other pair... or open a new dedicated one just for...
Gold market is a mess right now... at least according to my model... so I would suggest STAY PUT, unless you are sure af of what you are doing I am waiting for corrections to go through... this Monday totally disappointed... Was so close to finish the correction but then again nonsense news.. delayed the process...
Awaiting further data... 24-48h...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #29
  • Nov 13, 2019 6:34pm Nov 13, 2019 6:34pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Gold market is a mess right now... at least according to my model... so I would suggest STAY PUT, unless you are sure af of what you are doing I am waiting for corrections to go through... this Monday totally disappointed... Was so close to finish the correction but then again nonsense news.. delayed the process... Awaiting further data... 24-48h...
Finally! I believe corrections are complete and that we will now see the release of this GOLD market, to show us the way it wants to be... I believe GOLD took the sacrifice at this consolidation and I think it is consolidated now! But just to be on the safe side, will wait a few business days and then we shall re-enter market more frequently... so stay tuned... I plan to post it in the TE also... Starting next week, should all go well... Also if you are looking for TURBO mode, check my CHEETAH thread, next week For others, longterm-ers.. this thread would be better... Both will be about GOLD of course, just the cheetah will also include some other market....
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #30
  • Nov 14, 2019 10:54am Nov 14, 2019 10:54am
Took a small buy today, but with high leverage (added +1.1% to this published/attached TE, see for yourself)... It is nice to see gold recovering.. specially since (I believe that) it was the sacrifice at this painful/stall/delayed corrections in the market.. At least according to my computations... I would believe we will see UP now... but just to be on the careful side.. would wait for this week to settle, because market was in heavy delay, anomaly for so long.. it needs some time to adjust.. And also at least the next week to show us its colours.. or where it wants to be... But for the moment... seems pretty UP to me...

BTW will see soon who just extrapolated the fall before and who can actually model the market... Many were hoping for GOLD's drop to continue... I was consistent about the UP.. but it needs to be re-confirmed... Oh yeah, too

So if all goes well... might start buying much more... in the beginning-middle of next week... Or latest after the next week shows its way... Since I need fresh(est) data after this corrections/consolidations that just happened yesterday, if my model is correct anyway

So stay tuned!

And also, if you are interested in the CHEETAH way.. go check my thread also.. I plan to trade GOLD there also... Hopefully we begin hitting/killing it hard, next week Well maybe next week will be a test but still HARD... and if goes well after that... we might start hitting hard with real deposit(s)... The more conservative ones (smart money style), this thread might be better... And I might attach new/fresh TE to it.. or start tracking from new date aka reset statistics... where the focus would be RoMaD 2-5 (Return over DD)...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #31
  • Nov 18, 2019 12:17pm Nov 18, 2019 12:17pm
Quoting auricforecas
Took a small buy today, but with high leverage (added +1.1% to this published/attached TE, see for yourself)... It is nice to see gold recovering.. specially since (I believe that) it was the sacrifice at this painful/stall/delayed corrections in the market.. At least according to my computations... I would believe we will see UP now... but just to be on the careful side.. would wait for this week to settle, because market was in heavy delay, anomaly for so long.. it needs some time to adjust.. And also at least the next week to show us its colours.....
Nice! Seems market did in fact consolidated last week, hopefully... So it is nice to see gold recovering... Made +1.7% return on this attached TE... See for yourself...
DD is not that bad either, -8.3%.. at current return 36.8% so about 4. RoMaD factor... I was deciding between return/dd of 25%/5%... but we might continue with this very TE (just reduce risks, leverage) and aim for 100%/20%... Any input welcome! At least post, ask or at least like some post so that I see that people are actually reading this thread... It encourages me to post on...

Also, I hope/believe we will have some GOLD(en) data by the end of the week.. to see the direction gold wants to go I would still bet on UP, but has to be "confirmed" somewhat with satisfactory "certainty".. SO stay tuned! Things looking good now, finally! Have been waiting for this cross-road (maybe) for a long time... It seems the time is now... Would love to RIDE the GOLD rise To be continued - TBC!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #32
  • Nov 19, 2019 1:06pm Nov 19, 2019 1:06pm
Quoting auricforecas
Also, I hope/believe we will have some GOLD(en) data by the end of the week.. to see the direction gold wants to go I would still bet on UP, but has to be "confirmed" somewhat with satisfactory "certainty".. SO stay tuned! Things looking good now, finally! Have been waiting for this cross-road (maybe) for a long time... It seems the time is now... Would love to RIDE the GOLD rise To be continued - TBC!
Very nice, going as predicted, although much slowly than expected but so far so good... Expecting to enter bigger positions next week... You can also check our CHEETAH thread when we try to identify GOLDEN opportunities...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #33
  • Nov 21, 2019 1:28pm Nov 21, 2019 1:28pm
Markets are a little messy now... Will wait for it to roll... Will also evaluate the trend/direction over the weekend and specially the next week... First half of it, most likely.. Just to be sure if UP (BUY) direction is still best choice for this. I would say it is, but need to confirm... I might also re-set or enter new TE for this, fresh one, in the beginning of December... Will be posting trade ideas as posts till then... and at the end of the next week (end of NOV)... I will estimate what kind of TE specs would be best... and from that would see what type of account, broker, balance (REAL money) would be best, at least to display here...

I am thinking about making two TEs... for this thread... One for like 25% return (at 5% DD)... And one 100% return (at 25% DD)... For more return we have other thread (CHEETAH), for more/extremely aggressive trading... https://www.metalsmine.com/showthread.php?t=961438

But this thread will remain for a more conservative trading approach... with 2 versions... "Smart Money" one... 25%/5% (Return, DrawDown)... and one somewhat OPTIMAL one at 100%/25% (Return, DrawDown)...

I think we must have two because I believe many traders here start with rather small deposit... so anything below 100% would not mean much... I mean what is 100USD to 125USD in a year... but at 100% with only 25% DD (exposure)... I think some would be willing to bet 1k USD in order to get 2k USD... out, meaning 1k profit which averages like 80USD/month... (if one would be spending this in the 12 months after)... which is not bad... And since DD would only be 25%... one could invest(borrow) 10k.... and get 20k OUT.. while risking basically only 2.5k... So for a risk of 2.5k... to get 20k out is not bad right Ok...
Expect more trading data next week...

P.S. I believe we will have some EPIC (last) 3 trading weeks of this year, 2019.... Because in the mid of DEC... it starts to slow down (from previous experience)... since Christmas, New Year approaching... So I expect some EPIC (representative) trading in the next 3weeks... 25NOV19-13DEC19... At which point full summary/review/analysis will happen... So that we can start preparing the trading (TS) strategy for 2020...

So I expect lots happening in the next 3+ weeks Stay tuned!

Also, tnx for votes, but please VOTE more in the POLL! It will help me much when seetting the two TEs for this TS/thread...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #34
  • Nov 24, 2019 2:47pm Nov 24, 2019 2:47pm
I have detected some strange anomalies/consolidations for the next 2 days, MON,TUE... So will give you the direction (trade overview) from 27th of NOV on... Please stay tuned...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #35
  • Nov 25, 2019 1:37pm Nov 25, 2019 1:37pm
Quoting auricforecas
I have detected some strange anomalies/consolidations for the next 2 days, MON,TUE... So will give you the direction (trade overview) from 27th of NOV on... Please stay tuned...
Well yeah, glad I didn't enter the market... Trend up-direction status: CRITICAL... If it doesn't stabilises after/within 2 days... must seriously re-calc possible trajectory...
For the moment I still believe in the up-trend... at least in the longterm... but will re-estimate (for shorter-term) it AFTER 2 days for the next (about) 3 weeks... So stay tuned... This Mon, Tue could still be regarded as a temp thing but if the thing continues towards the end of the week and specially through the next week... we might reconsider the (up)trend (harvest) direction.... To be known soon, very soon, I believe... Will post in 2 days... Now it is important to gather the info, model it.. and also price-in the Thanksgiving/BlackFriday week... https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...ack-friday.asp

Also by the end of next week, the latest.. will most probably post LIVE TE but with REAL MONEY displayed... so that you can track it... The target will be 25% Return over 5% DD... So a conservative one... Because for HIGH-stakes, high-risk we already have CHEETAH thread... Also, the way TEs operate is that whenever one deposits new money.. the profits got divided by total deposits so that the return virtually drops.. just due to equations... So therefor... Will open NEW TE, fresh account number... Just to have see what kind of TE (the current favourite is 25%/5% TE) to strive for... Because out of that I will see/know what broker would be best for it... Maybe even OANDA would do for that kind of TE, not sure... So please VOTE what kind of TE stat would you like to see for this GOLD thread.. BTW might add additional TE later... So apart of that 25%/5% (Return/DD) and CHEETAH thread... might add additional higher-stakes TE.. with stats like 100%/20% (Return/DD; RoMaD=5)... as gold appears to provide good higher stakes moves also...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #36
  • Nov 30, 2019 4:57pm Nov 30, 2019 4:57pm
Ok gold rose (hah... no pun) now... still much under the line/price I consider a no-brainer... that is 1500... So will see what happens in the next 2 weeks... My bet would be UP, of course, where else Will confirm/reject next week... Should go up, as planned, I believe this might be an indication of RISING months ahead well into the next year So stay tuned! Also... will decide in ONE WEEK how much REAL money to deposit and show here LIVE TE with open MONEY lots... for you to see the rise... ATM planned Return is 20-25% at 5% DD... Since gold is about being conservative right For more EXPLOSIVE returns (but also risks), we have other THREADS for this.. CHEETAH for example... Also might ADD additional TE to this thread later... with the goal of maybe like 100% Return over 20% DD... To be continued...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #37
  • Dec 3, 2019 1:08pm Dec 3, 2019 1:08pm
Ok guys... planning to deposit new TE with LIVE money/lots... Will leave this one for display, for some time at least.. RoMaD is not bad; it is 4.4...
But I plan to deposit new.. as since some of you know... when you deposit new money, stat gets distorted, adapted to new total deposits.. hence I will be buidling new TE.. But would really appreciate if you can post or at least vote in the poll about what TE do you strive for...

Btw... Love that GOLD went as predicted... NORTH (UP) If I would give you only one possible "advice", would be: BUY
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #38
  • Dec 4, 2019 1:05pm Dec 4, 2019 1:05pm
Seems favourite TE would be 100% Return at 20% (max) DD, right? Judging by the (very low) votes... Any comments?

About GOLD, yeah, UP, where else.. I strongly believe price will RISE soon... Tnx in advance
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #39
  • Dec 5, 2019 1:57pm Dec 5, 2019 1:57pm
Just made a substantial analysis and I RE-AFFIRM my beliefs in the GOLD UP-trend...

Will post more trades/signals.... (trend-surfing) style..

Tnx for the votes! Keep on voting, currently there is no real favourite (if you exclude my vote)
So please help us find what TE - TradeExplorer (Return/DrawnDown(DD)) targets should be... Tnx.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #40
  • Dec 13, 2019 1:22pm Dec 13, 2019 1:22pm
Re-affirming UP views... NORTH! ;D
Can you afford to take that chance?
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