GOLD - XAUUSD /EUR (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model) | Metals Mine

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GOLD - XAUUSD /EUR (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

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  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 1, 2019 4:57pm Oct 1, 2019 4:57pm
Similar to one of my other TS (in sistem forum - EE)... derived from same controlling parameter.. using similar tools but market/trend specified...

Ok, very simple TradingSystem (TS)... for GOLD (vs USD or vs EUR - much better atm)

It is about SURFING the (up)TREND...
Gold seems to be somewhat underpriced atm, specially considering the buying/uncertainty trends...

TREND (at least till the end of OCT) is believed to be (according to my projections) NORTH (UP):

CONTROLING parameter:
My price prediction model of 10+ years is basically the same, at least CORE of it, regardless of the applied market... But since it has been used on the EURUSD the most... I use it also to assess it's quality/precision based on that chart... So the closer the price is around the violet line (merlins line - output of the model, for this market), the better it works... At the moment, the price is bellow the line which is synced with the downtrend direction, but I do not like that it is like 100+ PIPs below... I would much prefer it to be closer, ideally swinging around the line, even though it was predicted on 25jul19... it is recalculating all the time and it implies that it should hold till the end (of oct)...

Additional info for your help:
CORRELATIONS.. eurusd to GOLD

  1. http://www.stockexshadow.com/gold-eu...relation-chart
  2. https://www.myfxbook.com/en/forex-ma.../XAUUSD-EURUSD

TP (not to be greedy but it is also variable, depending on the daily moves, liquidity etc...)..
But I would say like 100-200PIPs change at the time would be good.
Leverage: I would be looking at let's say 20-200:1 Leverage... Again, depending on the market volume, volatility...
SL: I do not want to discuss this religious thing... But I might be open to higher risks than famous 1:1, if the market would indicate some price would need some wider "turning radius" before it reaches the "final destination"
---
Questions before entering trade:

  1. Trend still seems north or "anything unusual"?
  2. Any special news/events?
  3. Volume/Liquidity ok?
  4. Good "part of the day" (meaning not a STALL but not SPIKEs either)?
  5. What would be optimal TP (depending on the daily (past/projected) moves, some fraction of it?

At the moment it is like this...

  1. North trend seems reconfirmed, at least long(er) term; trajectory, extrapolation test ok
  2. TP 100 would seem good, LEVERAGE 20:1
  3. Not a good time of the day (lower volume), would skip the night, revaluate in the morning
  4. Some longer slides atm (depending on the timeframe), would let this roll before Buying..
  5. Controlling parameter (eurusd model prediction vs reality): not good/optimal, 100+ pips under the line...

Current decision: Awaiting for a few more days to see how it goes... Not entering..

Will track this closely and decide by the end of the week if I should open/post/link dedicated TE (TradeExplorer) to this thread so that you can see in practice.
And all this could be automated, I would just be placing it manually atm...

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #2
  • Oct 2, 2019 7:03am Oct 2, 2019 7:03am
Super system. Looking forward to it.
  • #3
  • Edited 1:06pm Oct 2, 2019 12:26pm | Edited 1:06pm
Quoting swagtrading
Super system. Looking forward to it.
Tnx man, have made some sample trades to start the TE... Have a look.. 1.5% so far... Was thinking about target % for this Trading System, but I think it will be due to opportunities and I do not plan to limit it at the moment... But let me say that I would be happy with like stable 2.5-5% monthly (or 10% monthly and a little less stable), since we are talking about system and not some "burner strategy" for example... What are your thoughts? In fact, I will might post a poll for this..

BTW, the price raised rather good since the first post (19h) ago, but I estimated it to be too risky to enter at the time, at least with high-leverage.

The situation improved much by now, but still not (very) optimal (or "certain") imho... Will keep you posted.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #4
  • Oct 4, 2019 12:27am Oct 4, 2019 12:27am
Thanks for sharing your system auricforecas! Have you taken a trade on gold yet? You certainly were right about it going higher.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #5
  • Oct 4, 2019 4:36pm Oct 4, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting Ef5
Thanks for sharing your system auricforecas! Have you taken a trade on gold yet? You certainly were right about it going higher.
Yes I did, you can see in this attached TE... But I am not happy with the stat tracking... Although I might somewhat say it's fair even though it might not be completely representable... As you can see in the TE, the balance was increasing, the TradeGraph (per trade) also shows the right picture but the default TradeGraph that is showing "return by day" would imply like I had a loss... It was not the case, one trade did result in slight negative but due to (expensive) swap, so I reentered the market one more time to pay for this and increase a little I do however agree with non-cumulative return was negative overnight and also that is why my (virtual) DD seems too high... Although real return went nothing but up and real DD was like -0,4% only... With "real" I mean that after trade(s) were closed, not counting intratrade exposure...

So I think this TE is too aggressive for this purpose I am presenting here... Although serious potential, but high risk due to 200:1 leverage with maximum positions

So I am thinking about decreasing trade size, positions, risk down to like... Target Levels like this: estimated 25% annual return, 5% max DD... So stability/consistency above all... Risk per trade, TP, SL, TP:SL ratios, Leverage... will be defined later, at least in range since it may vary due to market conditions and estimated certainty, but the main parameters would be 25%/5%... and as low return volatility as possible, Slower increasing return would be preferred (with as low DD as possible - very important for REAL (smart) money). What do you guys think? Will maybe post a poll for this, to get a feel of what you guys would prefer to see in this Trading System...

I will live this TE linked to this thread, to show some sample and that I actually made the LIVE trades that I talked about but will most probably create different TE later because this one already has different style/stat in it...

And tnx that you liked it, hope you will be a long follower... Please share your thoughts about the desired TE etc... Or vote in the poll once its set up
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6
  • Oct 4, 2019 5:18pm Oct 4, 2019 5:18pm
Quoting auricforecas
But since it has been used on the EURUSD the most... I use it also to assess it's quality/precision based on that chart... So the closer the price is around the violet line (merlins line - output of the model, for this market), the better it works... At the moment, the price is bellow the line which is synced with the downtrend direction, but I do not like that it is like 100+ PIPs below... I would much prefer it to be closer, ideally swinging around the line,...
Ok a quick update regarding the "quality control" of the model... referenced/calibrated with eurusd.. since it was used more on... I must say that the parameter improved greatly this week, although not "there" yet... I expect it to be by the end of the next week...

And also, price did move good after the first post of this Trading System.. So so far so good but would much prefer for controlling parameter to be back on track...
I do not see any change in the longer term for the gold.. meaning I would be rather confident with BUYs... But would confirm/reject this on/around 31OCT19 that I might suspect it might be a "inflection point" for confirming/rejecting the trend with much potentially much greater certainty... Also the question is how precise can we model it, so derived from that... we can estimate other trading parameters... leverage, target % difference, "turning radius" like SL.. Meaning, giving price to "turn/breathe" before it reaches TP Etc etc...

So the question is what stat should we aim for and how precise can we trade... The more precise, lower number of trades needed, high-lev can be afforded etc... If more loose... lower leverage, higher radius etc... Will keep you posted.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #7
  • Oct 8, 2019 1:33pm Oct 8, 2019 1:33pm
quick update of system parameters:

  1. Trend still seems north or "anything unusual"? STALL market... but would be confident to buy bellow 1500... anytime almost (with not big leverage at current market conditons)
  2. Any special news/events? (no, market waiting, undecided)
  3. Volume/Liquidity ok? (crap)
  4. Good "part of the day" (meaning not a STALL but not SPIKEs either)? (not right now
  5. What would be optimal TP (depending on the daily (past/projected) moves, some fraction of it? (not high... due to stall)

QUICK SUM: Would avoid trading atm... but would buy below 1500 anytime of the day (with as low leverage as you can "afford") due to unfavourable market conditions, in my book at least... Would wait till eurusd rebound to like 1.10+ (within 7days "latest") to be more confident (higher leverage, but not too high since I aim at lower return but also lower DD).

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #8
  • Oct 8, 2019 11:19pm Oct 8, 2019 11:19pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yes I did, you can see in this attached TE... But I am not happy with the stat tracking... Although I might somewhat say it's fair even though it might not be completely representable... As you can see in the TE, the balance was increasing, the TradeGraph (per trade) also shows the right picture but the default TradeGraph that is showing "return by day" would imply like I had a loss... It was not the case, one trade did result in slight negative but due to (expensive) swap, so I reentered the market one more time to pay for this and increase...
I'm somewhat indifferent on the TE. It looks like the expected annual return is 5x the expected DD? That sounds like a great system.

For what its worth, if I were to put a big balance behind the system then I'd probably trade where no more than a 20% DD is expected. Its great to shoot for the moon like the Turtle Traders did, but I couldn't stomach a huge drawdown like they used to get even if the expected return is outstanding.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #9
  • Oct 9, 2019 2:02pm Oct 9, 2019 2:02pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I'm somewhat indifferent on the TE. It looks like the expected annual return is 5x the expected DD? That sounds like a great system. For what its worth, if I were to put a big balance behind the system then I'd probably trade where no more than a 20% DD is expected. Its great to shoot for the moon like the Turtle Traders did, but I couldn't stomach a huge drawdown like they used to get even if the expected return is outstanding.
You are exactly right! Tnx for the input btw! This is what I concluded... smart(er) money seems to look for RoMaD 5+ So 25% return at 5% max DD... So that would be my target... Or... 100%+ return at 20% DD... that would be acceptable too... but for lower amount of money/balance.. in absolute terms...

So yeah, I decided that the strategy for this kind of trading would be long-term profit/income... at very little DD.. So total risk would be 5% of deposit.. at (almost) absolute worst (trading), stress-test... maximum overload scenarios... maximum exposure... So if one deposits 100k USD, worst case would be to get 95k... That kind of DD is "swallowable" for almost the most investors that invest to profit.. not just to preserve the wealth (purchasing power, inflation adjusted etc..)... Much different market as you imagine.. And of course, they would be interested for this kind if system would display some good consistent growth.. With those parameters, 25% would seem gold as you imagine... Because it might not be much for 100EUR deposit traders but at 100k... you could pull 25k... which is not negligible money! So that is the goal here.. And also, it fits with GOLD perfectly.. since gold also attract conservative/smart money people, maybe!

Ok about the GOLD price... Still seems UP... I am not in trade atm since I do not like current market... but I am optimistic situation might improve much within a week! I mean, compared to other markets... I have my doubts/dilema, specially around HALLOWEEN... but for gold I am ALMOST certain that it will go up regardless So stay tuned, REAL trading might resume SOON! Just as the parameters align! As always, "learn when not to trade" is a great GUIDELINE for this system also, my general "rule".. but specially here, for this strategy, for the goals I described... When it resumes.. I might deposit some greater money and start clean, with low-risk but climbing steadily... ATM just sample/example TE attached... of what can be done... for some to see price change vs return... and scale it down for lower risk etc...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #10
  • Oct 9, 2019 11:54pm Oct 9, 2019 11:54pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} You are exactly right! Tnx for the input btw! This is what I concluded... smart(er) money seems to look for RoMaD 5+ So 25% return at 5% max DD... So that would be my target... Or... 100%+ return at 20% DD... that would be acceptable too... but for lower amount of money/balance.. in absolute terms... So yeah, I decided that the strategy for this kind of trading would be long-term profit/income... at very little DD.. So total risk would be 5%...
Yep, I think you’re right about gold going up. I wouldn’t get in now but I think we will have another good opportunity soon.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #11
  • Oct 10, 2019 4:52pm Oct 10, 2019 4:52pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Yep, I think you’re right about gold going up. I wouldn’t get in now but I think we will have another good opportunity soon.
Yea man, exactly... It dropped now a little.. but I think that is a good thing, you know why...

Because the quality of my price prediction model improved much! Judging by the controlling/calibration parameter...
In the first post of this thread, I gave you this link... It almost touched it today, certainly went into its direction.. contrary to what many expected, specially at least few weeks ago... Here you can find the latest snapshots of the "quality/precision" parameter (1, 2, 3). Which maybe implied that the price prediction model seems to be much more right now... And I use the same (CORE) also for GOLD.. which would mean, using it, I can be even more confident of gold going up, even though it went slightly down, due to corrections...

So quick summary of TS main parameters from first post..

  1. Trend still seems north or "anything unusual"? YES
  2. Any special news/events? not really atm
  3. Volume/Liquidity ok? good (generally, not prefect this exact time of post though)
  4. Good "part of the day" (meaning not a STALL but not SPIKEs either)? well not for this exact time of post, but overall yes, since it is below 1500 which I consider almost a no-brainer for buy
  5. What would be optimal TP (depending on the daily (past/projected) moves, some fraction of it? 1500+
  6. Controlling parameter (eurusd model prediction vs reality): ALMOST OPTIMAL... improved much, just not completely satisfied/confirmed atm... might be tomorrow or by the middle of next week... stay tuned

I won't enter the trade... would wait for controlling parameter to improve to full capacity and done trading for the week... But will most probably enter trade next week, if all goes well...

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #12
  • Oct 11, 2019 12:04pm Oct 11, 2019 12:04pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yea man, exactly... It dropped now a little.. but I think that is a good thing, you know why... Because the quality of my price prediction model improved much! Judging by the controlling/calibration parameter... In the first post of this thread, I gave you this link... It almost touched it today, certainly went into its direction.. contrary to what many expected, specially at least few weeks ago... Here you can find the latest snapshots of the "quality/precision"...
Great! Check (links/pics from above post).. Happy to inform you that the quality prediction parameter is TOP NOTCH atm... check the latest snapshot of it (back to violet line - output of price prediction model of 10 years... - merlins line, same mode I use for GOLD also)... Which means... The confidence for GOLD going NORTH again have increased dramatically... Will be fully confirmed next week.. but it seems VERY NICE atm... Do not be afraid of this rebound, embrace it! Because it might give us GOOD starting/selling point Here are the latest TS update, very good atm!:

  1. Trend still seems NORTH or "anything unusual"? HELL YES
  2. Any special news/events? small drop, but nothing serious, will create very good buy point
  3. Volume/Liquidity ok? good (generally, not prefect this exact time of post though, prepare for next week)
  4. Good "part of the day" (meaning not a STALL but not SPIKEs either)? well not for this exact time of post, would wait till next week, for (quality control) parameter to stabilise/confirm
  5. What would be optimal TP (depending on the daily (past/projected) moves, some fraction of it? TP at 1500+
  6. Controlling parameter (eurusd model prediction vs reality): OPTIMAL!!! just waiting for confirmation next week then I might BUY it HEAVILY

Very nice... will re-enter the trade next week, most probably.. but certainly if OPTIMAL level of the controlling parameter sticks... The same model predicts GOLD=NORTH (UP)...

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #13
  • Oct 17, 2019 3:59pm Oct 17, 2019 3:59pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Great! Check (links/pics from above post).. Happy to inform you that the quality prediction parameter is TOP NOTCH atm... check the latest snapshot of it (back to violet line - output of price prediction model of 10 years... - merlins line, same mode I use for GOLD also)... Which means... The confidence for GOLD going NORTH again have increased dramatically... Will be fully confirmed next week.. but it seems VERY NICE atm... Do not be afraid of this...
Reaffirmed... Still in gridlock/stall atm.. awaiting 1500 break... And tnx for the votes! Appreciated! Will influence how I run this TS/thread... Seems 100% Return and 20% DD might be winning (desired TE)... I tend to concur... Although might add 25%/5% one also.. Same RoMaD of course...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #14
  • Oct 21, 2019 4:23pm Oct 21, 2019 4:23pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Reaffirmed... Still in gridlock/stall atm.. awaiting 1500 break... And tnx for the votes! Appreciated! Will influence how I run this TS/thread... Seems 100% Return and 20% DD might be winning (desired TE)... I tend to concur... Although might add 25%/5% one also.. Same RoMaD of course...
Again... Not much to add... Waiting is Gridlock stall... atm... Hope it will be released soon...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #15
  • Oct 24, 2019 10:55am Oct 24, 2019 10:55am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Great! Check (links/pics from above post).. Happy to inform you that the quality prediction parameter is TOP NOTCH atm... check the latest snapshot of it (back to violet line - output of price prediction model of 10 years... - merlins line, same mode I use for GOLD also)... Which means... The confidence for GOLD going NORTH again have increased dramatically... Will be fully confirmed next week.. but it seems VERY NICE atm... Do not be afraid of this...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Reaffirmed... Still in gridlock/stall atm.. awaiting 1500 break... And tnx for the votes! Appreciated! Will influence how I run this TS/thread... Seems 100% Return and 20% DD might be winning (desired TE)... I tend to concur... Although might add 25%/5% one also.. Same RoMaD of course...
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Again... Not much to add... Waiting is Gridlock stall... atm... Hope it will be released soon...
Finally (1500+ again), thank you for you patience Will let this roll a little... and then see where we are headed... Would preferably be out of the trade in this very defining 8 days of October... After which we might step on much stable trend, I believe...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #16
  • Oct 25, 2019 2:43pm Oct 25, 2019 2:43pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} {quote} {quote} Finally (1500+ again), thank you for you patience Will let this roll a little... and then see where we are headed... Would preferably be out of the trade in this very defining 8 days of October... After which we might step on much stable trend, I believe...
Ok great, glad GOld is stisll above 1500... and that it spiked rather good above this... Very curious what the next week will bring.. Specially interested when market(s) will at market close on 31OCT19... Than I shall wait for possible (new) trend to form in the week after.. and then, happy to inform... will most probably model the GOLD (XAUUSD) market for some weeks/months in advance and will be posting here some daily-weekly predictions... and take note! without the (eurusd) controlling parameter! Because I estimate that by 10-15NOV we might have XAUUSD prediction stabilised so no other controlling parameter from other market... I think this might be a good news, new development... So let's see how the next 1-2weeks go and then I plan to post more frequently and more charts with predictions/estimations.. And also to keep going with this TE or open new one, with the targets that are most preferred, judging by the poll.. Please vote in the poll so that I might know what return/DD setup to target!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #17
  • Oct 29, 2019 2:32pm Oct 29, 2019 2:32pm
Man, I might be unsure about the markets (effect) in the news few days.. and specially 3-6months aftermath... of it... but GOLD is the least of my concerns...
I am still rather confident (however at least a little doubt is always healthy in markets), in my book about GOLD going up... Specially now that it is under 1500 again... I believe we will see the aftermath of this mess of this week rather soon... And as I explained, hope we can get modelled market by the mid of NOV...
But if I would have to choose, right now... BUY, of course So stay tuned and I hope we will get the clear standing asap!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #18
  • Oct 31, 2019 5:02am Oct 31, 2019 5:02am
Quoting auricforecas
Man, I might be unsure about the markets (effect) in the news few days.. and specially 3-6months aftermath... of it... but GOLD is the least of my concerns... I am still rather confident (however at least a little doubt is always healthy in markets), in my book about GOLD going up... Specially now that it is under 1500 again... I believe we will see the aftermath of this mess of this week rather soon... And as I explained, hope we can get modelled market by the mid of NOV... But if I would have to choose, right now... BUY, of course...
Well glad that at least one market goes according to expectations... At least to mine...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #19
  • Nov 5, 2019 5:27pm Nov 5, 2019 5:27pm
Hi, things looking good atm, specially with gold below 1500, which seeems like a nobrainer BUY... detailed modell in the making, 95% complete, just need for up to 7days to finalise/reject the uptrend...In the meantime will be in the BUY mode, specially at the gold below 1500, seems like a nobrainer... Stay tunned! Massive data/modell coming within a week!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #20
  • Nov 6, 2019 5:42pm Nov 6, 2019 5:42pm
Quoting auricforecas
Hi, things looking good atm, specially with gold below 1500, which seeems like a nobrainer BUY... detailed modell in the making, 95% complete, just need for up to 7days to finalise/reject the uptrend...In the meantime will be in the BUY mode, specially at the gold below 1500, seems like a nobrainer... Stay tunned! Massive data/modell coming within a week!
Things going as expected (for now) in the above post. It is moving toward the 1500 (again)... all other parameters are GOOD atm, but still not GREAT... I suspect them to be great soon, up to 7days the most.. but can be much sooner, for example in the next 3-5days...
Can you afford to take that chance?
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