US Retail Sales - September Preview
Final Thoughts
Forecasts
- Core Retail Sales
- Core Retail Sales m/m is expected at 0.1% vs 1.0% prior
- In Bloomberg's survey of 65 economists, the average forecast is 0.1%. Majority of forecasts fall in a range between 0.0% and 0.3%.
- The two most recent forecasts submitted to Bloomberg today are -0.1% and -0.3%. Another late -0.3% forecast was submitted yesterday.
- These late forecasts could be signaling a weaker than expected number. I've posted about forecast weights here.
- Moody's Analytics is forecasting -0.1% for Core Retail Sales.
- Reuters polled 55 forecasters. 0.1% is the avg estimate. Notably, 33% of forecasts are at 0.0% while just 24% are at 0.1%. - Retail Sales
- Reuters polled 61 forecasters. 0.2% is the avg estimate. Again worth noting, 33% vs 25% are split between 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
- In a survey of 73 economists by Bloomberg, the avg fell at 0.18%. Majority of forecasts fall in a range between 0.1% and 0.3%.
- Late arriving forecasts are showing lower estimates here as well.
Notes
- Another solid report will signal to the Fed that consumer spending is holding up, and that the economy is not in much need of policy accommodation
- A big miss would raise concerns about slowing growth and trade uncertainties impacting consumers, and could add urgency for policy easing
- Be careful with revisions to prior data and whipsaws.
Recent Impacts on Gold, USD/JPY, and EUR/USD
More chart impacts in this preview report
August
Final Thoughts
The risk is in any big surprises in the data that could trigger risk sentiment, especially on a Friday with not much else on the docket. Without any significant deviation from forecast in either number, impact will be limited. While worth monitoring, I don't expect to see any big surprises tomorrow. I recommend at least watching just in case. Otherwise, I'd sit this one out.
As always, caution is advised. Good luck fellow traders!
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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