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High Impact Events Trading... Gold & Copper

  • #241
  • Sep 4, 2019 11:59am Sep 4, 2019 11:59am
Greenspan: NIRP is coming

It will not be long before the spread of negative interest rates reaches the U.S., former Fed Chair Greenspan said.

"You're seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It's only a matter of time before it's more in the United States,"
  • #242
  • Sep 4, 2019 12:01pm Sep 4, 2019 12:01pm
Tomorrow's calendar includes 6 Fed speakers, as well as the Beige Book to top it off. Should be fun.
  • #243
  • Sep 4, 2019 12:06pm Sep 4, 2019 12:06pm
bureaucrats who work at the Fed have called the movements of the U.S. stock market better than anyone else in the world. If this is true, why haven't they all quit to become billionaire hedge fund managers?
  • #244
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:01pm Sep 4, 2019 2:01pm
Trump says china wants to make a deal, we'll see what happens
  • #245
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:16pm Sep 4, 2019 2:16pm
Tomorrow's NFP release.what do you think????Positive or negative????
  • #246
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:17pm Sep 4, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting Spirit4eva
Tomorrow's NFP release.what do you think????Positive or negative????
As you may also know, Dollar index has been at a resistance though its been fallin since today though....so what do y'all think bout the effect of NFP
  • #247
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:18pm Sep 4, 2019 2:18pm
Quoting Spirit4eva
Tomorrow's NFP release.what do you think????Positive or negative????
As you may also know, Dollar index has been at a resistance though its been fallin since today though....so what do y'all think bout the effect of NFP ON THE dollar????will it strengthen or weaken it???
  • #248
  • Sep 4, 2019 3:33pm Sep 4, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Tough question. I'm not sure. Here are some thoughts: Gold is where the least amount of risk is at a time where uncertainty is really high. It's conservative, but the big money should be there. Crude probably has some room to the downside. A riskier bet, but it's a risky asset in a period where investors might be seeking safety in lower yields. US Treasury Bonds would usually be a good investment, but right now yields might...
Trump claims the U.S. does not need China as a lender, and that even if China were to sell all of its Treasuries, there is an able supply of other buyers ready to lend to the U.S. government at the same low rates. That's a foolhardy hypothesis that the U.S. can't afford to test!
  • #249
  • Sep 4, 2019 3:38pm Sep 4, 2019 3:38pm
The Chinese are very adept at not accepting anything. You’ve got to be very tough, and that’s what Trump is doing. It’s in China’s interest to correct, and I think we’ll end up with a solution that’s dramatically better than we have today. Frankly, I think the impact of what...
  • #250
  • Sep 4, 2019 4:05pm Sep 4, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting Unitedgold
Tomorrow's calendar includes 6 Fed speakers, as well as the Beige Book to top it off. Should be fun.
Crazy day!

Quoting Unitedgold
Greenspan: NIRP is coming It will not be long before the spread of negative interest rates reaches the U.S., former Fed Chair Greenspan said. "You're seeing it pretty much throughout the world. It's only a matter of time before it's more in the United States,"
Greenspan's best days are behind him. I'm pretty sure his most recent book he wrote was calling for double digit inflation around right about now. Don't quote me on that. But the dude is old. Gotta give him credit though. Landing Andrea Kramer was a helluva job!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #251
  • Sep 4, 2019 4:07pm Sep 4, 2019 4:07pm
Quoting Spirit4eva
Tomorrow's NFP release.what do you think????Positive or negative????
I hope to have a preview up for US employment data prior to the event. Probably the day before. Vorenzd might have some insights as well. We'll see.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #252
  • Sep 4, 2019 4:11pm Sep 4, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting Vorenzd
I agree with you, i've actually been thinking about that for a while, it's really gone under the radar and i'm also of the opinion that it has not been priced in yet. I'm actually going to do an event preview of the BOC meeting and i'll probably get into that a little deeper.
I want to see where you are on this. The Bank of Canada didn't change the language in the statement but a rate cut is still coming. They will shift and it will be priced in at some point. If the global slowdown is coming then the cross to take advantage of is either the USD/CAD or the CAD/JPY. I'd stick with USD/CAD. The timing on this call but nothing has changed but a delay in the inevitable. I'll add to any position no doubt when I'm early on a call. As long as the fundamentals don't change.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #253
  • Sep 4, 2019 4:26pm Sep 4, 2019 4:26pm
Quoting Unitedgold
{quote} Trump claims the U.S. does not need China as a lender, and that even if China were to sell all of its Treasuries, there is an able supply of other buyers ready to lend to the U.S. government at the same low rates. That's a foolhardy hypothesis that the U.S. can't afford to test!
The US-China relationship is very complex. Trade, currency fixings, Chinese buying up treasuries, China manufacturing US goods. It's why Trade Balance used to be a high impact event and now is a non-event. Marc Chandler's book Making Sense of the Dollar is how I wrapped my head around it.

Bottom line is, US needs flows from China to boost demand for treasuries and China needs somewhere safe to put the money. It's a win-win relationship with some things that need fixing and hopefully with some negotiations and compromise, both sides can come out with a good deal.

The bottom line though, is how are we going to profit from this drama? That's what we do!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #254
  • Sep 4, 2019 7:18pm Sep 4, 2019 7:18pm
On the CAD -the expectation was that they would do something but they didn't.
Plenty of time to sell USDCAD or even better buy the CADYEN
  • #255
  • Sep 5, 2019 10:35am Sep 5, 2019 10:35am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} The US-China relationship is very complex. Trade, currency fixings, Chinese buying up treasuries, China manufacturing US goods. It's why Trade Balance used to be a high impact event and now is a non-event. Marc Chandler's book Making Sense of the Dollar is how I wrapped my head around it. Bottom line is, US needs flows from China to boost demand for treasuries and China needs somewhere safe to put the money. It's a win-win relationship with some things...

  1. There's more possibility of a breakthrough between the two sides," said Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid under the People's Daily.
  2. Hu has been spot on with the recent developments in the escalated trade war. Most recently, he had warned about the Chinese retaliation just hours before China's official announcement.
  3. A blog called Taoran Notes has been followed by analysts covering China and market participants for cues on the trade battle.
  4. In a 1,200-word commentary, Taoran said it's "very likely" there will be "new developments" in the upcoming trade talks.

  • #256
  • Sep 5, 2019 2:52pm Sep 5, 2019 2:52pm
Quoting Unitedgold
{quote} There's more possibility of a breakthrough between the two sides," said Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a tabloid under the People's Daily. Hu has been spot on with the recent developments in the escalated trade war. Most recently, he had warned about the Chinese retaliation just hours before China's official announcement. A blog called Taoran Notes has been followed by analysts covering China and market participants for cues on the trade battle. In a 1,200-word commentary, Taoran said it's "very likely" there will be "new...
What an excellent well researched post.
  • #257
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:42pm Sep 5, 2019 3:42pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} What an excellent well researched post.
Thanks
  • #258
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:43pm Sep 5, 2019 3:43pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Crazy day! {quote} Greenspan's best days are behind him. I'm pretty sure his most recent book he wrote was calling for double digit inflation around right about now. Don't quote me on that. But the dude is old. Gotta give him credit though. Landing Andrea Kramer was a helluva job!
Greenspan said people are looking for hard assets that they know will have value in the future. #gold
  • #259
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:55pm Sep 5, 2019 3:55pm
ECRI’s is all about the timing of turning points, and right there -- in January 2019 -- is the cyclical peak in jobs growth, and it is far from over. Both nonfarm payrolls (top line) and the household survey (bottom line) year-over-year growth are in cyclical downturns.

While there’s been lots of celebration about the supposedly strong jobs market, just because nonfarm job prints haven’t undershot consensus expectations, people are missing the forest for the trees, which the chart makes plain.

Nonfarm payroll growth is already at a 17-month low, and the household survey is even weaker. And we already know that the top nonfarm payroll line will be revised down by half a million jobs, when we get the benchmark revisions in a few months.
The key reason many people are betting on a soft-landing is the belief that the consumer will save the day, in large part because of solid jobs growth. Here’s the problem. Growth in ECRI’s Leading Employment Index, which correctly anticipated this downturn in jobs growth, is at its worst reading since the Great Recessionhttps://www.metalsmine.com/blob:http...5-02591f66ff87
  • #260
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:56pm Sep 5, 2019 3:56pm
https://www.metalsmine.com/blob:http...c-21bcd48f7e68
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