.... Based on my polling of former bank trader counterparts, orders above this 1350 level should cap any moves higher, unless risk aversion comes back in force...... {image}
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #21
- Jun 16, 2019 6:30am Jun 16, 2019 6:30am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,088 Posts
- #22
- Jun 18, 2019 12:46am Jun 18, 2019 12:46am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: LFG ROSS | 1,777 Posts
{quote} Those horizontal S/Rs you see are static fibonacci lines. It means I pick one line as the base and then I project fibonaccis upwards and downwards from that baseline. Because I only pick the baseline once (the same for each timeframe), the fibonaccis never change. And I pick the original baseline that gives me the fibonaccis that closely match where I've (always) been seeing a lot of price action history in each timeframe.
From a technical standpoint, I trade in a similar fashion, except I use 50% retracements in place of fibos. Same practice, different tools. Always drawing the lines through the heaviest price action.
correspond to order levels I hear about
- #23
- Jun 19, 2019 9:53pm Jun 19, 2019 9:53pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
This is the part I was originally asking about. Who are you hearing it from? Like do you have dealer contacts or are you talking about analyst you read?
I get some orderbook scuttlebutt from old dealer Whatsapp groups... somehow they never bothered to kick my ass out after I "retired" from institutional trading back in 2011.
I'm also still on the orderbook alert mailing lists of one particular Swiss bank (which will have to remain nameless).
Plus I also get SOME indication of hedge fund interests from a hedge fund client I used to write white-labeled advisories for.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #24
- Jun 19, 2019 10:03pm Jun 19, 2019 10:03pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
{quote} I'm too lazy to read "analyst" commentary. I don't even read stuff I'd write myself. I get some orderbook scuttlebutt from old dealer Whatsapp groups... somehow they never bothered to kick my ass out after I "retired" from institutional trading back in 2011.
Orderbook information is ALWAYS incomplete information regardless what some orderflow goo-roos may tell you.
It's just a snapshot of current sentiment, and said sentiment can always change on a dime.
What IS reliable, however, is that the Market has Memory.
Price will always flow from historical zones of major price action (i.e. where orders are usually clustering), if not in the timeframe you're looking at, then definitely in another. Believe it or not, there's also "history" in intraday timeframes.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #25
- Jun 19, 2019 10:29pm Jun 19, 2019 10:29pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
I didn't think of writing anything because nothing had changed.
Until the FOMC last night.
The 1350 ceiling broke after the Fed kept rates unchanged (uncut, rather). "Uncertainty" is oft-quoted, but precious metals tend to be bid in low interest environments.
Spot gold is now at 14-month highs, thereabouts, and stalling below 1385... altho, to be frank, 1400 is the real target, but I like round number targets so it's probably just me.
My S/Rs on the H4 and M15 charts show likely targets around 1390 for an extension of the current surge, but if that fails, watch out for a re-test of the 1350 pivot.
Am pretty certain there will be juicy limit bids layered above 1350 along with sell stops to make it worse.
Until the FOMC last night.
The 1350 ceiling broke after the Fed kept rates unchanged (uncut, rather). "Uncertainty" is oft-quoted, but precious metals tend to be bid in low interest environments.
Spot gold is now at 14-month highs, thereabouts, and stalling below 1385... altho, to be frank, 1400 is the real target, but I like round number targets so it's probably just me.
My S/Rs on the H4 and M15 charts show likely targets around 1390 for an extension of the current surge, but if that fails, watch out for a re-test of the 1350 pivot.
Am pretty certain there will be juicy limit bids layered above 1350 along with sell stops to make it worse.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #27
- Jul 2, 2019 3:10am Jul 2, 2019 3:10am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
I didn't think of writing anything because nothing had changed. Until the FOMC last night. {image} The 1350 ceiling broke after the Fed kept rates unchanged (uncut, rather). "Uncertainty" is oft-quoted, but precious metals tend to be bid in low interest environments. Spot gold is now at 14-month highs, thereabouts, and stalling below 1385... altho, to be frank, 1400 is the real target, but I like round number targets so it's probably just me. My S/Rs on the H4 and M15 charts show likely targets around 1390 for an extension of the current surge,...
Normally when a pair manages to complete 3 straight sets (either major-to-minor-to-major, or in this case, minor-to-major-to-minor) without going on a stupid sideways tangent, I tend to get a lil nervous in that maybe... just maybe, a trend change or (at least) a correction is in the works.
But that's just me.
For any trend change or correction, price will have to venture south beyond the blue set (i.e. beyond 1376) and will need to touch 1350 at least.
Let's look at some intraday charts:
I'd think that opening gap from yesterday is just gagging to be closed, with the typical round number target of 1400 as the target in that empty yellow box in the M15 chart above.
I'll try to be a lil more prolific from here on out.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #28
- Jul 3, 2019 2:55am Jul 3, 2019 2:55am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
{quote} From the last time I spoke, gold crossed into the new set (1376 - 1424) on the Daily chart (which shares the same S/R levels as the weekly chart), completed the set, and then pretty much stayed within the set. {image} Normally when a pair manages to complete 3 straight sets (either major-to-minor-to-major, or in this case, minor-to-major-to-minor) without going on a stupid sideways tangent, I tend to get a lil nervous in that maybe... just maybe, a trend change or (at least) a correction is in the works. But that's just me. For any trend...
It closed. In spades.
Gold punched thru the round number 1400, thru light resistance around 1408, around 1416, and around 1421.
After failing to force a break of 1435, XAUUSD is now settling around 1425, and I'm calling a sideways pivot around that level until markets figure out what's up.
So what happened?
Safe haven demand ramped up (again) on "renewed concerns".
And that's enough "fundamental" for today.
Dialing up to the H1 and H4 charts, gold seems to be hitting the 1440 ceiling and not really having enough legs to follow thru, just like the last time last week.
I'm gonna assume 1440 will hold and gold has no more legs to follow thru. Which means I'm gonna strap myself in to join a possible stop hunt wave.
The wave may force the fills of some juicy sell stops now widely clustering around between 1416-1419.
Just to recap what a sell stop run means, at least to me: it means hitting all the weak bids, forcing sell stops to be filled by their respective orderbook runners, who will in turn be spooked by the chaos and who then try to get rid of their new longs by joining the selling spree.
Basically, it's just everybody just following the crowd when nobody really knows (or cares) who is really following who.
Enough traders mistakenly think a sell stop run is bad for people with sell stops.
It's actually only bad for people who stand in front of an oncoming train.
There MAY be strong bids coming back around 1408, but I don't have enough confirmation on that.
Just remember that whatever "confirmations" I get don't mean jack shit. It's just a snaphot of emotion at that particular moment in time.
Who knows? Comrade Kim might turn virgin North Korean beach-fronts into Trump resorts and "renewed concerns" turn to "renewed faith".
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #30
- Jul 3, 2019 9:11pm Jul 3, 2019 9:11pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
{quote} Nice charts Skenobi. I think $1440 will give way sometime this week and we see new highs. Lets see!
You could be right, if the NFP turns out to be a turd, and Trump messes up a good thing in Korea and China.
Here's my not-so-scientific reasoning why I think the 1440 ceiling will hold... on the H4 chart, price action tapped the upward-sloping 60-bar SMA twice, and on that second time, price managed to close below the SMA for a few bars...
All the above WHILE there's a visible ceiling at 1440.
Now, I ain't a classical TA groupie, but a noob might see a double top forming there on the H4 with the second correction (maybe towards 1400) still underway.
Hence, I think the cluster of orders between 1414-1420 will be taken out on the way down to 1400.
And Trump gets lucky once more... tho, for how long more?
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #31
- Jul 3, 2019 11:43pm Jul 3, 2019 11:43pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
So here's where we're at today for gold.
As I mentioned in the post before this, there's a double top on the H4.
I forgot to mention that the second major peak is a a lil lower than the first...
...not a good thing to have on double top formation if you're bullish on gold AND if you're in a rush.
I don't really consider myself long-term bullish or bearish on gold (or at least I don't REMEMBER I've ever considered it).
But I am gunning for a post-NFP correction back towards 1400.
That one-way set completion on the H1 (in the next to last yellow box) can work like a gap-up, in that it's a gap that "needs" to be closed.
As I mentioned in the post before this, there's a double top on the H4.
I forgot to mention that the second major peak is a a lil lower than the first...
...not a good thing to have on double top formation if you're bullish on gold AND if you're in a rush.
I don't really consider myself long-term bullish or bearish on gold (or at least I don't REMEMBER I've ever considered it).
But I am gunning for a post-NFP correction back towards 1400.
That one-way set completion on the H1 (in the next to last yellow box) can work like a gap-up, in that it's a gap that "needs" to be closed.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #32
- Jul 4, 2019 10:19pm Jul 4, 2019 10:19pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
XAUUSD looks pretty well supported. Bids are coming in from 1410 upwards.
My confidence level (vis-a-vis the notion that gold will correct back towards 1400 before resuming) is getting an ass-kickin' but I'm getting up unbowed.
In the background, we still have the common theme of the massive US national debt, and zero-to-negative interest rates all over the world. All this sad mess is posing a real threat to the dollar.
Consequently, gold and silver are the beneficiaries.
I'll comment on silver a little later in the day, hopefully.
In the meantime, here are my gold S/Rs on M15. For higher timeframes, you can refer to my earlier posts.
My confidence level (vis-a-vis the notion that gold will correct back towards 1400 before resuming) is getting an ass-kickin' but I'm getting up unbowed.
In the background, we still have the common theme of the massive US national debt, and zero-to-negative interest rates all over the world. All this sad mess is posing a real threat to the dollar.
Consequently, gold and silver are the beneficiaries.
I'll comment on silver a little later in the day, hopefully.
In the meantime, here are my gold S/Rs on M15. For higher timeframes, you can refer to my earlier posts.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #34
- Jul 5, 2019 2:09am Jul 5, 2019 2:09am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
500 pip consolidation could prove very profitable.
As an aside for the rest of my audience here, I ain't a big fan of even horizontal lines when the lines are based on the wick highs and lows of candlesticks (or bars).
If I were to ever to draw my S/R lines manually, I'd normally switch to line charts and find the areas of historical price action that way instead.
I would also never consider drawing stuff like flags, pennants, or non-horizontal lines of any kind because the points used are too arbitrary and gives a false sense of "exclusivity" (i.e. that maybe I'm the only one seeing this).
I'd much prefer horizontal lines drawn across areas of historical price action. Almost anyone can actually SEE the coincindences.
But don't let my preferences stop y'all from sharing your views here, tho.
Selfishly, I might learn somethin' new.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #35
- Edited 5:52pm Jul 5, 2019 5:34pm | Edited 5:52pm
{quote} I'd much prefer horizontal lines drawn across areas of historical price action. Almost anyone can actually SEE the coincindences.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- #36
- Jul 7, 2019 1:08pm Jul 7, 2019 1:08pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
{quote} That's interesting, it sounds like the end result is very similar to volume profile? I've noticed a few other really good traders using that and I'm beginning to see a lot of merit to this approach.
I have no quarrel (at the moment) with people who use volume data.
I don't use volume data.
Why? Volume data is incomplete information. It's either JUST from your broker's client base, or from particular futures exchanges, or a combo of both.
The volume data doesn't take into account the inter-dealer bank trade flows (the ONLY flows that really count), the volumes of which is NEVER tracked in any central database, which, even if it exists (it doesn't), will never be accessible to retail traders.
Some traders have a talent for extrapolating market sentiment from the above limited volume data. To these people, I can only offer my salute.
I don't believe this limited information represents actual orderbook contitions, hence I think such extrapolations are too arbitrary to be of any use to me.
The static fibo S/R lines I use (which coincidentally coincide with historical price action) and the slope of a 60-bar SMA, are just about the only arbitrari-ness I allow in my trading. And I try to reduce arbitrari-ness as much as possible.
It doesn't really matter to me if the reader is not convinced. As my sig below implies, I ain't interested in convincing anybody.
If anyone wants to show market profile or volume profile (or whatever you wanna call it) charts in this thread, they're more than welcome.
At best, I get to learn how other people trade (which always fascinates me), even tho I will likely NEVER incorporate what I learnt into my own trading.
I'm too old a dog to be inclined for such things.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #37
- Jul 8, 2019 12:59am Jul 8, 2019 12:59am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
So the correction towards 1400 XAUUSD support I was waiting for finally came.
Spot gold touched a low of 1386 thereabouts before bouncing back above 1400.
Is the correction over? For now I think it is.
As per the H4 chart, spot will likely stay between 1386-1430 in the interim, using the 1413-1415 range as a pivot.
The S/R levels in all three charts below should provide enough anchors to trade mini bounces, retracements, corrections etc using whatever S/R trading method you like.
As usual, I don't have a firm long-term technical view. If the news analysts are to be believed, some are expecting a longer-term target of 1900.
Near-term, I'm only bullish gold because I think gold is bouncing off the support of a sideways range.
Spot gold touched a low of 1386 thereabouts before bouncing back above 1400.
Is the correction over? For now I think it is.
As per the H4 chart, spot will likely stay between 1386-1430 in the interim, using the 1413-1415 range as a pivot.
The S/R levels in all three charts below should provide enough anchors to trade mini bounces, retracements, corrections etc using whatever S/R trading method you like.
As usual, I don't have a firm long-term technical view. If the news analysts are to be believed, some are expecting a longer-term target of 1900.
Near-term, I'm only bullish gold because I think gold is bouncing off the support of a sideways range.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #38
- Jul 9, 2019 2:36am Jul 9, 2019 2:36am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
The 60-bar SMA on the H4 is finally turning down.
If I was trend-following, I'd be shifting my mode to selling any strength of pullbacks towards 1405 with tight stops.
The H1 chart is confirming this shift in mood.
Below you'll find my M15 S/R levels (more useful) and the levels for the M5 (in case someone finds it useful).
I don't have much to comment. Markets are still trying to figure out where everybody stands on interest rate expectations... which is pretty much all over the place.
And I don't really care!
If I was trend-following, I'd be shifting my mode to selling any strength of pullbacks towards 1405 with tight stops.
The H1 chart is confirming this shift in mood.
Below you'll find my M15 S/R levels (more useful) and the levels for the M5 (in case someone finds it useful).
I don't have much to comment. Markets are still trying to figure out where everybody stands on interest rate expectations... which is pretty much all over the place.
And I don't really care!
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #39
- Edited 1:52am Jul 10, 2019 1:31am | Edited 1:52am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
Despite the textbook reactions expected from Chairman Powell's interest rate bias (or lack thereof), markets can really go anywhere and the financial press talking heads will find all sorts of reasons to justify why they were right (or explain why they were wrong or sorta right).
My D1 chart for today for context:
A double top forming with a slightly lower 2nd peak.
A purty lil pattern showing up on the H4 chart:
But on the H1, that second bottom (in the last blue box) is looking a lil exhausted. The support around 1390 looks firm.
Time to go long again for the upswing back in to range?
Let's take look at the M15.
Spot is resting on the bottom of that pink box. I'm not inclined to go long or short at that level.
I'd short on any pullback to 1394 with a tight stop, or go long on any bounce off 1386.
I have no bias either way.
My D1 chart for today for context:
A double top forming with a slightly lower 2nd peak.
A purty lil pattern showing up on the H4 chart:
But on the H1, that second bottom (in the last blue box) is looking a lil exhausted. The support around 1390 looks firm.
Time to go long again for the upswing back in to range?
Let's take look at the M15.
Spot is resting on the bottom of that pink box. I'm not inclined to go long or short at that level.
I'd short on any pullback to 1394 with a tight stop, or go long on any bounce off 1386.
I have no bias either way.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
- #40
- Jul 10, 2019 2:38am Jul 10, 2019 2:38am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Former institutional dogsbody | 1,253 Posts
I'm beginning to think gold is a lil bit more interesting to trade than FX these days.
The following are my charts for today, for the common pairs of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with their H4, H1, and M5 charts (for the scalpers).
The following are my charts for today, for the common pairs of EURUSD and GBPUSD, with their H4, H1, and M5 charts (for the scalpers).
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.