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broker stop-hunted my palladium trade 9 replies

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Palladium trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 20, 2019 12:29pm Jun 20, 2019 12:29pm
Palladium is not popular in day trading. I think it's because on Forex it have big spread and slippage. But on Futures market it is very interesting and good instrument for swing trading.
Let's trade it together.
My opinion for it
On daily chart we have a long balance, but good point for long will just after provocation, and test of zone, which we have on 1123.
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The same test we had before:
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But on less time frame this movement what can be interesting for short, so i think we can find point for short on less Time Frame(TF)

What i'm waiting:
1. Provocation. We already have it.
2. Back inside the range. For it we have to wait.
3 I will open short on a test that zone what is forming now.

I wrote to myself this plan on monday
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how it is on less TF now/
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  • #2
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:05pm Jun 20, 2019 1:05pm
I look forward to seeing your views as well as others on palladium for some trading ideas.

There's some volatility ahead for palladium as the auto industry pivots to electric vehicles. Most of palladium's demand comes from the transportation sector, used for catalytic converters. As electric cars become more popular, palladium's utility drops along with demand. It's a cheaper and stronger metal than platinum, and a good alternative. I'm sure the market will find other uses, but I don't know what it'll be.

Here's a chart going back to 2011 showing Palladium's slow price decline. Given the strength of this trend, I look for shorting opportunities in PL.
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I think we are close to seeing palladium test some support. If it breaks, there might be some good shorting opportunities. For now I'm on the sidelines.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #3
  • Jun 20, 2019 11:45pm Jun 20, 2019 11:45pm
Awesome to see some experienced traders tackling palladium. I don’t have any experience trading it outside of just outright buying coins.

Maybe after more research (and eyeing this thread) I’ll feel confident trading futures contracts. That trend is too strong to ignore but I felt the same way about copper and I’m still trying to master trading it
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #4
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:24am Jun 21, 2019 12:24am
Palladium is the one metal that's in backwardation now:
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The futures curve has a tendency of being right so I'd have to be bearish on that basis alone.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #5
  • Edited 1:02am Jun 21, 2019 12:44am | Edited 1:02am
I was just looking at more data on Palladium and it's actually very interesting. I didn't realize it had nearly doubled since September:

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Implied volatility is insanely high at 250% right now.

The options market has extremely bearish pricing for PA. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I see there's an 87% chance it will be below 1,336 in March:

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If the pricing is really that extreme it seems like there should be some sort of arb or at least high probability trade. Selling covered puts might be a good play.

Edit: I think something might be wrong with the options chain I'm viewing.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #6
  • Jun 21, 2019 11:40am Jun 21, 2019 11:40am
Quoting Ef5
I was just looking at more data on Palladium and it's actually very interesting. I didn't realize it had nearly doubled since September: {image} Implied volatility is insanely high at 250% right now. The options market has extremely bearish pricing for PA. Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I see there's an 87% chance it will be below 1,336 in March: {image} If the pricing is really that extreme it seems like there should be some sort of arb or at least high probability trade. Selling covered puts might be a good play. Edit: I think something...
Before March we can make a lot of money in both side.
  • #7
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:27pm Jun 24, 2019 4:27pm
Palladium has been on a tear since this week's open. Can't say that I was long, but watching it to see what it'll do the rest of the week.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #8
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:09am Jun 25, 2019 2:09am
Quoting Aleksbuk
But on Futures market it is very interesting and good instrument for swing trading. Let's trade it together.
I'm in the process of opening an account with TradeStation so I can trade the Palladium and Platinum contracts.

And yes agreed you need a futures account to trade Palladium. The CFD spreads that most brokers are quoting makes it impossible to make money with anything but long term.
  • #9
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:16am Jun 25, 2019 2:16am
Here's a chart I've been checkin out:
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About a year ago you could trade 1oz of Platinum of 1oz of Palladium. Today you'd need almost 2oz of Platinum!!! What the heck changed in a year, and what's to come of this jolt.
  • #10
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:20am Jun 25, 2019 2:20am
Quoting Ef5
Palladium is the one metal that's in backwardation now: {image} The futures curve has a tendency of being right so I'd have to be bearish on that basis alone.
Thanks for the chart Ef5. Any idea why it's in backwardation?
  • #11
  • Jun 25, 2019 11:04am Jun 25, 2019 11:04am
Quoting Goat
{quote} Thanks for the chart Ef5. Any idea why it's in backwardation?
More supply is coming into the market. Since the price of palladium is up almost 100% in 9 months miners must be producing as much as possible. Also, there's been an influx of scrap to help fulfill demand.

Quoting Goat
{quote} I'm in the process of opening an account with TradeStation
I had an account with them for awhile. Great platform, I just wish the company were as good as the product.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #12
  • Jul 1, 2019 8:58pm Jul 1, 2019 8:58pm
Palladium is on a run. Here's a look at the daily chart. It's close to that resistance, which is all time highs as far back as my charts go.
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Here's a look at the monthly chart. If it breaks out, it could go:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #13
  • Jul 1, 2019 11:10pm Jul 1, 2019 11:10pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Palladium is on a run. Here's a look at the daily chart. It's close to that resistance, which is all time highs as far back as my charts go.{image} Here's a look at the monthly chart. If it breaks out, it could go: {image}
Normally I wouldn't go against the trend, but a short entry would be tempting here given the R:R. Autos haven't been particularly hot lately and we should have more supply coming on so a doubletop is my base case for palladium.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #14
  • Jul 2, 2019 6:06am Jul 2, 2019 6:06am
Hey bro,
Been looking around for this,

Looking at this pair (palladium gold Cross) and price structure, looking to go short anything near 1560. Just looking at the bearish rejection on the weekly chart around March and how much we dropped, last week Friday we got a bearish inside bar around these levels so will be looking to pull the trigger of with a conservative position size and may leave it for a while,
Initial downside target would be 1489.18
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #15
  • Jul 3, 2019 11:26pm Jul 3, 2019 11:26pm
Quoting MzansiObi
Hey bro, Been looking around for this, Looking at this pair (palladium gold Cross) and price structure, looking to go short anything near 1560. Just looking at the bearish rejection on the weekly chart around March and how much we dropped, last week Friday we got a bearish inside bar around these levels so will be looking to pull the trigger of with a conservative position size and may leave it for a while, Initial downside target would be 1489.18
Palladium made it to almost $1,570 earlier today:

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Did you wind up entering a short position?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #16
  • Jul 3, 2019 11:56pm Jul 3, 2019 11:56pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Palladium made it to almost $1,570 earlier today: {image} Did you wind up entering a short position?
Hey Champ, yeah, shorted 1569 as soon as I saw that first red candle on the 15 Min, will hold this short for a while....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #17
  • Jul 4, 2019 6:10pm Jul 4, 2019 6:10pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey Champ, yeah, shorted 1569 as soon as I saw that first red candle on the 15 Min, will hold this short for a while....
Nice work MzansiObi!!! I wish I could say I got in too. I've got a felling you'll do very well with this trade.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #18
  • Jul 5, 2019 4:25am Jul 5, 2019 4:25am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Nice work MzansiObi!!! I wish I could say I got in too. I've got a felling you'll do very well with this trade.
Yeah, I intend to hold for some time, have closed some of he position to lock profits, I will start trailing if we get below 1552.56.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #19
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:03am Jul 9, 2019 1:03am
Lol it just won't break and stay below that 1552 handle hey, Starting to think in order to see and further weakness, 1552 support will have to be broken on a daily closing basis.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #20
  • Jul 14, 2019 2:08am Jul 14, 2019 2:08am
My previous waiting some deep provocation was loose waiting - the palladium already did target for long. I'm waiting for some rollback and test step on daily chart. if they will give confirmation, i will open short on test 1570. Target 1450.
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