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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

  • #101
  • Jul 1, 2019 4:44pm Jul 1, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting DonPato
Hello Ef5... very interesting data. It. Judging by the average it would seem prudent to sell now, while gold is "topping", and buy again sometime between 6 and 9 months later. (Jan-Mar 2020). That puts us at the start of the primary election season. Also, considering history on these years listed. The two best performing years where in the decade that the US (under Nixon) went off the gold standard and started "floating" the US currency. If further interest was the worst performing year was when the US/Iranian hostage crisis was resolved under newly...
You're welcome Don!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #102
  • Jul 2, 2019 11:25am Jul 2, 2019 11:25am
The large picture

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  • #103
  • Jul 2, 2019 12:32pm Jul 2, 2019 12:32pm
Quoting 676f6c64
{quote} Nothing quite like a good Trump re-election to drive up gold prices
It could actually end up pushing gold prices lower as it did with the last election. When Trump was elected the last time the USD surged higher--dropping gold prices.
Attached Image
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  • #104
  • Jul 2, 2019 7:19pm Jul 2, 2019 7:19pm
Quoting Beyfor
The large picture {image}
Uncertainty abounds (at least for me)! I still think we will see some consolidation but just higher than I originally anticipated.
  • #105
  • Jul 2, 2019 7:38pm Jul 2, 2019 7:38pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} It could actually end up pushing gold prices lower as it did with the last election. When Trump was elected the last time the USD surged higher--dropping gold prices. {image}
I didn’t realize that, interesting DonPato. I feel like that was before Trump was ranting and raving about a weaker USD and stronger EUR though.. doesn’t seem to make sense for prices to do that this time.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #106
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:20am Jul 3, 2019 9:20am
Quoting bulltrap
{quote} I didn’t realize that, interesting DonPato. I feel like that was before Trump was ranting and raving about a weaker USD and stronger EUR though.. doesn’t seem to make sense for prices to do that this time.
The big surprise was that Trump won at all. All the "prognosticators" had Clinton as the winner. So when the polls started showing Trump gaining Gold started to rise...then within a few hours, they announced the winner and Gold plummeted as you saw above. At the same time US indecise (DOW; S&P; Nasdaq) skyrocketed and didn't look back.

The question will be (with gold) would a Trump win be a surprise? I tend to think no. And/or would a Trump loss be a good or a bad signal for the US economy. Again I think not. On top of all of this there is a Bond rate inversion which also signals economic slow down, which could also trigger a drop in gold prices at least initially.

Again this is only opinion and my opinion is worth exactly what you are paying for it...ZERO
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  • #107
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:36am Jul 3, 2019 9:36am
Quoting DonPato
The question will be (with gold) would a Trump win be a surprise? I tend to think no. And/or would a Trump loss be a good or a bad signal for the US economy. Again I think not.
I agree, purely on the basis that the status quo isn't changing. On a fundamental level, if changing X impacts Y then X staying unchanged should have no impact on Y.
  • #108
  • Jul 3, 2019 10:03am Jul 3, 2019 10:03am
Quoting Metallurgy
{quote} I agree, purely on the basis that the status quo isn't changing. On a fundamental level, if changing X impacts Y then X staying unchanged should have no impact on Y.
At least with presidential elections...this seems to be the case. Each side, Democrats, Republicans, seems to dominate for 4 years and then the public swings to the other side. What I've also noted is that each swing goes farther and farther to the extreme. I used to think Bush (w) was about as right as the country was willing to swing and then Trump came along. As well I really thought Obama was about as "radical" left as the country would tolerate...but I was WAY wrong.

Each of these new swings (in politics) creates a "new view" of economics that are diametrically opposed. So the market then anticipates (based on the outcome) how best to position itself for a new phase of political spending. I think that if the left side wins and starts to print more money (as they have promised to do), Gold will rise drastically. If the Right side wins, most will consider it "the devil you know" and as you have elegantly stated above...life goes on unchanged.
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  • #109
  • Jul 3, 2019 2:56pm Jul 3, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting DonPato
When Trump was elected the last time the USD surged higher--dropping gold prices.
So are you gambling on 2020 yet?
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #110
  • Jul 3, 2019 3:13pm Jul 3, 2019 3:13pm
Quoting SurfsUp
{quote} So are you gambling on 2020 yet?
Hardly. I have a tough enough time deciding between the lesser of two evils. I haven't seen a genuine candidate worthy of my support in more than 20 years. However I think that if any candidate - regardless of party - comes in with a reasonably centrist and moderate management style he/she will win by a landslide. The US public is sick to death of these ever increasing and more radical swings from left to right and back again. Perhaps it's time for libertarian candidate if they could find one that isn't bats### crazy or not wanted for murder in another country.
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  • #111
  • Jul 3, 2019 3:38pm Jul 3, 2019 3:38pm
2020 will be a changing year, that is for sure.. If Trump gets elected, he will have the opportunity to show the REAL DEAL.. show his true plans/intentions... without bothering for re-election.. The only thing he would have to stay away from is the possible impeachment... He must be still careful in the first term because
any radical change could cost him re-election.. But the possible second term might be FEARLESS, LIMITLESS... he would also stop, I believe.. having this rallies... since no re-election worries after the 2nd term.. Although some say he is seeking ways for 3rd+ term

But it the trump doesn not win... we might see (with the next president) the possible reversal of everything he did and most probably.. massive short-term economic boost... cutting rates to the bottom, stimuluses.. that the next guy would take credit for... but if that happens, price would come at 2025.. when short-term effects would wear off, the latest.. and the real picture would come to surface.. but hey.. that would be the problem for the next guy
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #112
  • Jul 3, 2019 4:30pm Jul 3, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting auricforecas
Although some say he is seeking ways for 3rd+ term
0% chance.

Quoting auricforecas
that the next guy would take credit for...
Or gal
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
  • #113
  • Jul 3, 2019 7:32pm Jul 3, 2019 7:32pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Hardly. I have a tough enough time deciding between the lesser of two evils. I haven't seen a genuine candidate worthy of my support in more than 20 years. However I think that if any candidate - regardless of party - comes in with a reasonably centrist and moderate management style he/she will win by a landslide. The US public is sick to death of these ever increasing and more radical swings from left to right and back again. Perhaps it's time for libertarian candidate if they could find one that isn't bats### crazy or not wanted for murder...
reasonable? Centrist? moderate? Most of this reads like fantasy! Trump tried to be so anti-political but plays the same games as the rest of them. I don't care, I'm just trying to figure out how to make money off everyone's emotions!
  • #114
  • Jul 3, 2019 8:56pm Jul 3, 2019 8:56pm
All I can say is whomever wins is going to preside over a recession. We can’t go 5 more years without one so I hope they’re ready and able to enact fiscal stimulus.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #115
  • Jul 5, 2019 9:39am Jul 5, 2019 9:39am
Looking at Silver. Since we are at the end of the week, I am looking at a weekly chart of silver order flow:
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Two weeks ago silver broke to new yearly highs. This break produced an "order flow inversion" (that's what I call it). the next week showed buying near the lows of that week and at the top. But the buying at the top was absorbed. This week, mostly selling. With the NFP now in the books, and the sell off continuing, I have placed take profit order near the yearly lows for this year. The first level seems like it is all but a done deal...the second, and deeper level, may not pay out.
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  • #116
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:58pm Jul 6, 2019 5:58pm
I was just looking at the Eurodollar futures curve and wanted to see when it last looked like this.

Here's the current one:
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Here's an old curve that looks remarkably similar:
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The second curve is from June 4th, 2007. In fact, many of the curves from Summer 2007 looked similar to this. 2019 seems a lot like 2007 so my base case is for a recession to begin next year. We should have at least one leg higher in risk assets. I'm still going to ride the wave a bit higher, then I'm cashing out and selling calls and will probably get long vix futures. The metals corollary would be to short anything with industrial demand.

(For anyone unfamiliar with eurodollars, they show where traders expect short term interest rates to be in the future. Short term interest rates are very important for all markets, whether we're discussing metals, equities, bonds, etc.)
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #117
  • Jul 8, 2019 7:09pm Jul 8, 2019 7:09pm
Quoting DonPato
the next week showed buying near the lows of that week and at the top. But the buying at the top was absorbed. This week, mostly selling. With the NFP now in the books, and the sell off continuing, I have placed take profit order near the yearly lows for this year. The first level seems like it is all but a done deal...the second, and deeper level, may not pay out.

Impressive calls and impressive balls, sir!
  • #118
  • Jul 8, 2019 7:16pm Jul 8, 2019 7:16pm
Quoting bigtx
Impressive calls and impressive balls, sir!
Thank you for the compliment. (At least I think that is what it is). Its really just a matter of "seeing" where, (what price) participants are buying and/or selling and then following the change from order flow dominance, to balance, and back to dominance again. No "balls" needed. I appreciate that there is a certain amount of conviction in your assessment needed, but I find the assessment of order flow far more reliable (and therefore trustworthy) than typical "technical analysis" techniques.

Again thank you for your compliment.
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  • #119
  • Jul 9, 2019 11:24am Jul 9, 2019 11:24am
Gold

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  • #120
  • Jul 9, 2019 7:14pm Jul 9, 2019 7:14pm
Quoting Beyfor
Gold {image}
Seems like that rings true with your Daily chart posted previously. You don't think this resistance will hold?
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