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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

  • #81
  • Edited Jun 19, 2019 1:33pm Jun 18, 2019 3:50pm | Edited Jun 19, 2019 1:33pm
Quoting Beyfor
{image}
I was right there with you thinking this thing would go down there, but it looks like it caught some momentum back up. Any update from your perspective, or did this news and volatility just delay the inevitable? I don't see a real change out of it, fwiw
  • #82
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:24pm Jun 18, 2019 4:24pm
Since yesterday, the probability of a rate cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool has gone up by 2.5%. As uncertainty rises, you can bet on more extreme volatility across metals, especially gold.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #83
  • Jun 18, 2019 5:32pm Jun 18, 2019 5:32pm
Quoting swagtrading
{quote} Thanks. Inline with my view. I dont think Fed will cut 3 times in 2019. One and done more likely unless inflation really shoots to the downside.
Agree with you Ef5 and Swagtrading
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #84
  • Jun 20, 2019 5:22am Jun 20, 2019 5:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily 65.jpg Size: 195 KB
  • #85
  • Jun 20, 2019 4:32pm Jun 20, 2019 4:32pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: palladium daily 3.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #86
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:12pm Jun 20, 2019 10:12pm
Quoting Beyfor
{image}
Interesting to see such downward pressure still remaining on palladium while gold breaks free.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #87
  • Jun 23, 2019 9:41pm Jun 23, 2019 9:41pm
I read a good article over the weekend about the current intermarket environment, which apparently isn't positive for gold at least in the short run:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold-when-1.png Size: 49 KB


There's a lot more good info under the section titled 'Special note on gold'. Long story short, a long gold position is precarious at best.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #88
  • Jun 24, 2019 6:17am Jun 24, 2019 6:17am
Quoting Beyfor
{image}
I'm curious about the gold levels too. I'm pretty cautious with everything going on in the markets right now. Let me get some clarity!
  • #89
  • Jun 24, 2019 10:05am Jun 24, 2019 10:05am
Quoting Ef5
I read a good article over the weekend about the current intermarket environment, which apparently isn't positive for gold at least in the short run: {image} There's a lot more good info under the section titled 'Special note on gold'. Long story short, a long gold position is precarious at best.
Interesting correlations Thanks for sharing!
  • #90
  • Jun 24, 2019 11:24am Jun 24, 2019 11:24am
Quoting bigtx
{quote} I'm curious about the gold levels too. I'm pretty cautious with everything going on in the markets right now. Let me get some clarity!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily 66.jpg Size: 230 KB
  • #91
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:41pm Jun 24, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting Ef5
I read a good article over the weekend about the current intermarket environment, which apparently isn't positive for gold at least in the short run
Good read..thanks Ef5. Going to keep an eye on Gold/Silver ratio.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #92
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:30am Jun 25, 2019 2:30am
Quoting Beyfor
{image}
Thanks for posting your chart Beyfor. Do you mind sharing which platform you are using for your Palladium prices?
  • #93
  • Jun 25, 2019 4:43am Jun 25, 2019 4:43am
Quoting Goat
{quote} Thanks for posting your chart Beyfor. Do you mind sharing which platform you are using for your Palladium prices?
TT
  • #94
  • Jun 25, 2019 10:25am Jun 25, 2019 10:25am
Quoting Beyfor
{quote} {image}
Agree with your sentiment. Trump and the boys are as unpredictable as ever! My moves are on hold as I see what happens.
  • #95
  • Jun 26, 2019 4:00am Jun 26, 2019 4:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily 66.jpg Size: 230 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily 67.jpg Size: 223 KB
  • #96
  • Jun 26, 2019 8:32am Jun 26, 2019 8:32am
Article for some perspective Four trends affecting Gold - from World Gold Council. Interesting point that China and India central banks driving a lot of demand.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #97
  • Jun 30, 2019 2:33am Jun 30, 2019 2:33am
I read a good article over the weekend about how different assets perform after yield curve inversions. Currently the 10y-3m curve is inverted, here's how gold and silver have historically performed when this happened:

Gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 71 KB

Silver
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver-4.png Size: 44 KB


I was surprised to see the 2 year returns were so high, but silver was only positive half of the time whereas gold was up 83% in 5 out of 6 cases.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #98
  • Jun 30, 2019 8:03am Jun 30, 2019 8:03am
Hello Ef5... very interesting data. Judging by the average it would seem prudent to sell now, while gold is "topping", and buy again in 9 months.

Also, considering history on these years listed. The two best performing years where in the decade that the US (under Nixon) went off the gold standard and started "floating" the US currency. If further interest was the worst performing year was when the US/Iranian hostage crisis was resolved under newly elected President Regean. Could this be the chicken or the egg? I wonder.

None the less I will be watching this with great interest. Thank you very much for sharing this data. I find it very useful.
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  • #99
  • Jun 30, 2019 8:16am Jun 30, 2019 8:16am
Hello Ef5... very interesting data. It. Judging by the average it would seem prudent to sell now, while gold is "topping", and buy again sometime between 6 and 9 months later. (Jan-Mar 2020). That puts us at the start of the primary election season.

Also, considering history on these years listed. The two best performing years where in the decade that the US (under Nixon) went off the gold standard and started "floating" the US currency. If further interest was the worst performing year was when the US/Iranian hostage crisis was resolved under newly elected President Regean. Could this be the chicken or the egg? I wonder.

None the less I will be watching this with great interest. Thank you very much for sharing this data. I find it very useful.
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  • #100
  • Jul 1, 2019 1:35pm Jul 1, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting DonPato
Judging by the average it would seem prudent to sell now, while gold is "topping", and buy again sometime between 6 and 9 months later. (Jan-Mar 2020). That puts us at the start of the primary election season.
Nothing quite like a good Trump re-election to drive up gold prices
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
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