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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

  • #41
  • Jun 10, 2019 8:20pm Jun 10, 2019 8:20pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} The chart is based on the past 40 years. All I did to create it was download the monthly data, add a new column to show the month without the year, calculated the monthly change, and created a pivotchart showing avg monthly change.
Thanks for the lesson and the info Ef5. Helpful. Perhaps all that gold buying while on vacation or over the holidays! I know I get hit up around those times.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #42
  • Jun 10, 2019 8:22pm Jun 10, 2019 8:22pm
Quoting DonPato
Silver is falling back into the area where buyers dominated (via shorts stopping out) last week. I am watching intently to see if the order flow will turn to buying dominance once more in this area. Bottom of day's price action appears to be mostly buying. {image}
I think I am going to jump in as a buyer as well. Just a hunch that gold and silver both have a little room to run on the bullish side.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #43
  • Jun 11, 2019 7:56am Jun 11, 2019 7:56am
Weekly Outlook on Silver is still very bearish
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  • #44
  • Jun 11, 2019 9:39am Jun 11, 2019 9:39am
Quoting DonPato
Weekly Outlook on Silver is still very bearish {image}
Well, I'm slightly underwater at the moment with buy at 14.747. Hoping you are wrong DonPato!
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #45
  • Edited 10:22am Jun 11, 2019 10:05am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting SurfsUp
Well, I'm slightly underwater at the moment with buy at 14.747. Hoping you are wrong DonPato!
I frequently am wrong...but the order flow (at least at this point) is looking like sellers are still dominant and they are selling at the highs of the week...for me that's a bad sign for longs. However...
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On the daily chart, buyers are making a stand and have stalled the downward spiral (for now). I'm looking for at least one more leg down...but again..I am frequently wrong. That's why I let the order flow do the talking.
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  • #46
  • Jun 11, 2019 10:40pm Jun 11, 2019 10:40pm
Quoting DonPato
Weekly Outlook on Silver is still very bearish {image}
I’m really liking that volume profile indicator of yours. I have a couple in Thinkorswim, but yours is special because it incorporates multiple time frames. I see a big advantage in the way it displays for you so I may have to try coding something one for myself.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #47
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:21am Jun 12, 2019 1:21am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I frequently am wrong...but the order flow (at least at this point) is looking like sellers are still dominant and they are selling at the highs of the week...for me that's a bad sign for longs. However... {image} On the daily chart, buyers are making a stand and have stalled the downward spiral (for now). I'm looking for at least one more leg down...but again..I am frequently wrong. That's why I let the order flow do the talking.
Hey Don I'm wondering if your indicator is fully based on price or if there's another input? If you have a post that explains how it works would appreciate it.
  • #48
  • Jun 12, 2019 9:26am Jun 12, 2019 9:26am
Quoting Goat
Hey Don I'm wondering if your indicator is fully based on price or if there's another input? If you have a post that explains how it works would appreciate it.
It is a graph of delta (net buying - selling) volume at each price level. Most people are used to seeing volume on the "y" axis (underneath price) as a histogram of total volume for each candle.

This indicator plots the volume on the "x" axis with price and because it is calculating the net buying and selling at each price point it provides a much better window into the order flow at each and every price point.

I have my charts configured so that each volume profile is the same as a daily candle. Then underneath you can see intraday price movements that created the candle AND (most importantly) whether those price movements where net (delta) buying or selling. For me this is the most important part. I have found that price reaction to volume is far more important that price movements (price action) itself. If I see (as below) an area of buying...buying...buying...yet price does not rise significantly, I interpret that as absorption by larger interests and look for price to fall in the near future. This gold chart of today's price action is typical of this.
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  • #49
  • Jun 12, 2019 9:38am Jun 12, 2019 9:38am
Quoting Ef5
I’m really liking that volume profile indicator of yours. I have a couple in Thinkorswim, but yours is special because it incorporates multiple time frames. I see a big advantage in the way it displays for you so I may have to try coding something one for myself.
This indicator is freely available for cTrader (for a price of course!). I am not associated with them at all but have really found great value in this code. I wish you lots of luck in coding this. While I am NOT a programmer, I did try to do it and just pulled my hair out in frustration. If you are with think or swim and have access to @buy and @sell then your job has been made thousands of time easier. You simply subtract the buying from selling at each level and plot the result on the x axis.

Doing this for tick volume (for me) was amazing! I to this day have no idea how the programmer (Ahmad) was able to parse out the buying and selling using tick volume but I suspect it was something very complicated...much less doing that at each and every price level brings him (IMHO) to the level of programming genius.

The idea with this is that I set the profiles for the time frame I usually trade. That would be the daily chart. I then set the price chart for a smaller time frame that allows me to see the intraday movements (in general) that formed that daily candle. The result is (for me) a very clear picture of the order flow/volume for each day allowing me to make better informed decisions about my trading which (as you may have guess by now) is completely discretionary.
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  • #50
  • Jun 12, 2019 10:24am Jun 12, 2019 10:24am
Selling seems to be the theme of the day for Silver today. And the sellers seems to have established a resistance level of 14.83 where the most sellers are hitting the Market order button. Considering that yesterday buyers did the same thing in the area of 14.65 (roughly), I suspect a range is (or has) formed. Above this range, the weekly is showing 15.00 as the price to beat to be bullish. Another day...another range...wait, wait, wait. Ours is the ONLY profession where we get paid to sit on our hands and do NOTHING until its time.
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  • #51
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:42pm Jun 12, 2019 1:42pm
Quoting DonPato
On the daily chart, buyers are making a stand and have stalled the downward spiral (for now). I'm looking for at least one more leg down...but again..I am frequently wrong. That's why I let the order flow do the talking.
Wow! Great visual. I asked a similar question in another thread. I need to set up that chart!
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #52
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:07pm Jun 12, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} This indicator is freely available for cTrader (for a price of course!). I am not associated with them at all but have really found great value in this code. I wish you lots of luck in coding this. While I am NOT a programmer, I did try to do it and just pulled my hair out in frustration. If you are with think or swim and have access to @buy and @sell then your job has been made thousands of time easier. You simply subtract the buying from selling at each level and plot the result on the x axis. Doing this for tick volume (for me) was amazing!...
Thanks Don, I configured the default VolumeProfile indicator and came up with something relatively similar. I think the key difference is that it doesn't consider up volume vs down volume. The code is complicated for this one so it isn't something I could improve overnight.

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #53
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:11pm Jun 12, 2019 2:11pm
Quoting DonPato
Ours is the ONLY profession where we get paid to sit on our hands and do NOTHING until its time. {image}
Great way to think about it
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #54
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:12pm Jun 12, 2019 2:12pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Thanks Don, I configured the default VolumeProfile indicator and came up with something relatively similar. I think the key difference is that it doesn't consider up volume vs down volume. The code is complicated for this one so it isn't something I could improve overnight. {image}
Even this you are able to clearly see the peaks in volume (albeit total volume) called "high volume nodes" where price changes direction intraday. Note also how in these areas prices tend to range, marking a change in the order flow from dominance to balance.
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  • #55
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:13pm Jun 12, 2019 2:13pm
Quoting SurfsUp
{quote} Great way to think about it
Oddly enough it is harder to "do nothing" than to take action...even if its not right.
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  • #56
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:59pm Jun 12, 2019 2:59pm
Quoting DonPato
Ours is the ONLY profession where we get paid to sit on our hands and do NOTHING until its time. {image}
The following reference comes to mind:

"Dr. Cowans: Anesthesia's the easiest job in the world until something goes wrong. It's 99% boredom and 1% scared-shitless panic."
Coma (1978)..

I find similarities Trading can be very easy... when things are working great... You coud place an order on your smartphone, TP20, good leverage...
and check 5minutes later... and you get 10% return... outperform majority of the funds there in a single trade... Today 10%, tomorrow the world etc..
But you could also enter 0.1TP (yes, 1 tenth of the PIP), just to "round up" the balance (and pay the spread... And the market could FU pulp fictions style (the r. scene)... in a way you could have not imagine and you won't be the same... Previous STALL market could go 80PIPs against you, like G. is f. with you... Like its a prank or truman show... (trumpman show lately

Anyway... I describe your quote in a similar way, I just compare it to animals... I specially like the CAT strategy... the SLEEP all day, doing NOTHING... but when they do... they HUNT for the KILL with 100% efficiency... or LIONS (although I much prefer tigers, panthers etc...). SLEEPING, resting, recuperating.... WATCHING for opportunity, calculating, MAXIMUM POWER, 100% focus... RUN, KILL, EAT, rest and yeah... the other important thing also...

P.S. Yeah, I much prefer the SPRINT (HIT) etc... watching for GOLDEN opportunity and go MAXIMUM POWER. Because.. there might be just so many GOLDEN trades per year... I mean there are a few trades per year that almost anyone "knew"... it will go certain way... certain events, retracements, corrections etc... But they overtrade all the gained profits... That is why i retract if there are certain bad trades in a row or STALL, prefer not to trade... Apart of the BURNER strategy... when you just throw relative small deposit in (sub)account... and TRADE by PLAN and "it it dies, it dies"... but if it survives... INSTANT champion
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #57
  • Jun 12, 2019 6:15pm Jun 12, 2019 6:15pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Oddly enough it is harder to "do nothing" than to take action...even if its not right.
If you aren't exposed, there's no risk. One of the most important lessons I've learned in my 21 years of trading is that sometimes the best position is having no position.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #58
  • Jun 12, 2019 6:21pm Jun 12, 2019 6:21pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Oddly enough it is harder to "do nothing" than to take action...even if its not right.
Phil Jackson had a great basketball quote about this:
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https://paulsohn.org/phil-jacksons-1...of-leadership/

I hate Phil for what he did to the Knicks but it is true you have to be patient in trading as well. Avoid becoming addicted to spiting out trade orders every time the market sparks an idea in you.

Also I have learned that it is better to start with one instrument and fully understand it before jumping into trading another. If you execute a couple trades simultaneously for hedging purposes that is fine but trading multiple strategies across instruments is advanced and you have to be careful.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #59
  • Jun 12, 2019 10:55pm Jun 12, 2019 10:55pm
Paul Tudor Jones came out earlier today saying gold is his favorite place to be for the next couple years. He's calling for it to go to 1,700!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #60
  • Jun 12, 2019 10:57pm Jun 12, 2019 10:57pm
By the way, futures have gold eventually grinding up to 1,430 anyhow:

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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