Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures | Metals Mine

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Metals Outlook: Cash and Futures

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 4, 2019 8:23am Jun 4, 2019 8:23am
Gold

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  • #2
  • Jun 4, 2019 8:24am Jun 4, 2019 8:24am
Silver

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  • #3
  • Jun 4, 2019 8:25am Jun 4, 2019 8:25am
Copper

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  • #4
  • Jun 4, 2019 12:18pm Jun 4, 2019 12:18pm
I really like that seasonal visualization for copper.

Is something like that available for gold, platinum, palladium, and silver? If not, I might have to make one.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #5
  • Jun 4, 2019 1:07pm Jun 4, 2019 1:07pm
On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow.
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**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
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  • #6
  • Jun 4, 2019 2:18pm Jun 4, 2019 2:18pm
Quoting DonPato
On today's candle I'm showing buying support at the bottom of the day and very weak selling at the top. I am expecting higher highs () tomorrow. {image} **Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
It seems like you, Mr. Beyfor and I are in agreement on silver. I’m buying while it’s beaten down but looking for a rally medium term. Hope we’re right!
  • #7
  • Edited 10:06pm Jun 4, 2019 8:54pm | Edited 10:06pm
Quoting DonPato
**Edit** Silver market BTW...sorry I didn't specify
Thanks

Quoting Beyfor
Copper {image} {image}
Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down?

I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown.

While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been trying to invert. But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising.
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Check out CME FedWatch Tool:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #8
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:46pm Jun 4, 2019 9:46pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going.
For what it's worth, copper is still solidly in contango:
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There's just that one conspicuous drop in 2021.

Quoting EventsTrader
But the most surprising thing, gentlemen I present to you this: The market is now pricing in three rate cuts by year's end. Surprising. {image} Check out CME FedWatch Tool: {image}
That's amazing. I get why the market is pricing in aggressive Fed easing, but US unemployment at 3.6% and well below NAIRU:

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Cutting soon is probably the prudent move, but it's not difficult to envision a future where they've cut 75bps and suddenly have an inflation problem. The Fed is in a difficult spot.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #9
  • Jun 5, 2019 3:24am Jun 5, 2019 3:24am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Thanks {quote} Beyfor, I think I understand your gold and silver sentiment. It's hard to disagree with that. Are you predicting copper to come down? I'm having a tough time figuring out where copper is going. There are so many factors at play right now. We have the tariffs of course, as well as the trade wars. But more important than any of that, at least to Dr. Copper, is the global slowdown. While concerns still loom over China and how much of a slowdown we'll see, the US seems to be heading into a recession. Yield curve has been...
I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.

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  • #10
  • Jun 5, 2019 3:42am Jun 5, 2019 3:42am
Quoting Beyfor
{quote} I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward. {image} {image}
Thanks for the response Beyfor. Being completely out of copper right now, I'm a little uncertain about what to expect. Good luck in your trade. I hope copper gives you that move lower. Careful on Friday, we could see some fireworks during the release of the US jobs data. Cheers!

You are the honorary recipient of the Dr. Copper cup.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #11
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:12am Jun 5, 2019 9:12am
Still buying going on in the Spot Silver Market but...
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buying is weak (at least to this point in the day). More importantly is that significant selling near the lows of the day where absorbed. I have moved my stop up to protect 45 pts. (450 pips).
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  • #12
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:16am Jun 5, 2019 10:16am
Thanks for the charts! I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!
  • #13
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:53am Jun 5, 2019 10:53am
Quoting Metallurgy
...I'm still wrapping my head around precious metals and my punishment is a big whooping in my trades Learning is expensive!
It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a commodity when you really think about it.
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  • #14
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:00am Jun 5, 2019 11:00am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} It helps me to know that precious metals (like wheat or corn) are commodities. As such are subject to intraday volatility but are governed by larger concerns and economies. Thus intraday volatility is usually due to news (rumor), but has little consequence to the larger perspective. After losing a great deal trying to be profitable intraday trading on Gold, I started using much larger time frames to get a larger perspective on the commodities markets. These have improved my trading on almost all commodities including FX...which is also a...
That's some good advice Don! I'm usually looking at H1/H4 charts so I think I'm good there. Once I feel comfortable doing the daily intraday trades I will be branching out into more long term positions. That's how I started with Crypto and it has treated me very well, I'm sure I can repeat that success here too
  • #15
  • Jun 5, 2019 2:40pm Jun 5, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting Beyfor
I expect S/M term upward move before copper resuming its downward.
I agree. With the turmoil, tarriffs, and yield curve threatening to invert, it feels that downturn risks are growing. Expect that to hit copper harder than other metals due to ties with construction. What is your timeline Beyfor on the resumption of downward pressure?
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #16
  • Jun 5, 2019 4:02pm Jun 5, 2019 4:02pm
I would expect gold to now deflate a little, as EUR/USD.
It is always good to own some gold and cash however
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #17
  • Jun 5, 2019 6:17pm Jun 5, 2019 6:17pm
Quoting Beyfor
Gold {image}
Always good to see your charts bud,
Informative as always. I'm lookin at buying dip towards 1323.50/1324 handle.
For now price has moved too far too soon from that breakout from descending channel ......
Stay green
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #18
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:09pm Jun 5, 2019 8:09pm
Beyfor, it looks like all your charts here are Daily or high TFs. Can you give me some insight as to how you use lower TFs, if at all?
  • #19
  • Jun 6, 2019 3:49am Jun 6, 2019 3:49am
NYMEX Platinum

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  • #20
  • Jun 6, 2019 4:08am Jun 6, 2019 4:08am
Quoting Beyfor
NYMEX Platinum {image}
Looking for pullback towards near 50% fib level of yesterday's bear candle. Confluence of resistance towards near that median on the daily chart....
But won't hold onto this for too long.
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
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