Disliked{quote} I like your weekly base and 3-MA methods for hedging. I will now try it for GBPJPY. I don't trade commodities other than currency futures. What has been your experience with commodities trading in terms of time it takes for drawdown to die? Appreciate if you can share it. Thanks. I don't use a stop loss. In 2005 I came across averaging cost concept. Since then I have travelled a long way to control drawdown by focussing on Margin Level% to shake off Drawdown by not trading when margin level% hits 200% for each open lot. If 3 positions are...Ignored
Now, with the thread title and since you are trading the weeklys, perhaps you will understand and leverage what I am about to share. This is only true if you are a very long term position trader. For position trading, I ask - Where is the best placement of positions in a long directional trend on weekly or monthly timeframe? At the tip of bottom wick of weekly candle. (again, sorry for stating the obvious). But How do we know when the tip of wick begins to form? Damn it! That would be the holy grail right? We can't but here's one technique anyone can use. Caution: This is a FEEL GOOD strategy that makes you feel like a rock star of predicting tops and bottoms. Trust me! The high euphoria you get from seeing a position survive on weekly/monthly candle is a addiction that is quite hard to break from lol
Follow these steps (but please don't ask me any questions as most will fail attempting this simple and elegant endeavor):
- First and foremost, use your creativity and knowledge of overall market sentiment (like you are using on JPY during Risk-off global sentiment and Brexit issues with GBP to trade only Short GBPJPY)
- Determine trend on weekly with whatever means you feel appropriate. Let's say trend is LONG in this illustration.
- For Long trend, you only place positions below the open price of current weekly candle. Only Pending orders are allowed. Only Buy and Sell Hedged pending orders are allowed at the same price level
- Key areas to place Buy and Sell Pending orders:
- At previous open or close of previous weekly or monthly candle
- At the low of previous weekly/monthly candle or any such level in the past. Use your imagination to come up with some SR/Pivot/Fib or whatever you think it works
- With a little bit of creativity, place at every 100 (or whatever) pips spacing from Open of current weekly candle, place pending buy and sell orders when price @ Low = price @ Last on current candle. i.e. when the size of lower wick of current weekly/monthly candle is ZERO
- Now it becomes your job to end the week with atleast two times the size of lower wick of current weekly candle just by hedging and unhedging the traversal from open to lower tip of week and it's return to either past the open or at closing. It becomes your job to decide which one of unhedged positions to keep running for several weeks or months.
- It becomes your job to NOT pay more than the spread times number of pending orders. Your risk becomes the total cost (spread/commissions/swaps) of these trades.... if done correctly
Unfortunately, with FIFO and hedging is not allowed in USA, I cannot participate in this discussion. Consider it a gift from an old friend/stranger :-)
Staying in my lane...
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