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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #6,481
  • Jan 8, 2019 7:11am Jan 8, 2019 7:11am
EURAUD on watch, targeted clearout, looking for some soft longs.
  • #6,482
  • Jan 8, 2019 7:24am Jan 8, 2019 7:24am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Too asymmetric, only consider that as short play if demand is taken. For pullback leg continuation play structure needs to have clean lower highs and symmetrical behaviour in legs.
Sorry I'm confused about what is too asymmetric - which chart did you mean?

I thought AUDCAD looks good if it breaks the highs for continuation -

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USDCAD is a bit messier.

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep solid play, entry is late though. As soon as whole area lows are taken out thats where entry should be. Or just wait for pullback and short on that pinbar retrace back for higher - better entry.
With shorting on the pinbar, would you wait to see a rejection (e.g. candle close as pinbar), or just short on the pullback at a better price?
  • #6,483
  • Jan 8, 2019 7:40am Jan 8, 2019 7:40am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Sorry I'm confused about what is too asymmetric - which chart did you mean? I thought AUDCAD looks good if it breaks the highs for continuation - {image} USDCAD is a bit messier. {quote} With shorting on the pinbar, would you wait to see a rejection (e.g. candle close as pinbar), or just short on the pullback at a better price?
On short entry would have shorted without waiting for confirmation.

Generally you dont want to play structures like that on long side due to too high chance of fakeout and too hard to tell if MM is playing it, thats why i mentioned you need to have LHs in structure, consistent LHs. Pullback continuation structures needs to have consistent behaviour in how legs are printed, and for that you need to have progressive LHs.
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  • #6,484
  • Jan 8, 2019 7:42am Jan 8, 2019 7:42am
EURCHF in play, ballz in.
  • #6,485
  • Jan 8, 2019 7:52am Jan 8, 2019 7:52am
Quoting janpec1000
EURCHF in play, ballz in.
EURCHF bid in at 1232 thats the main one to watch and to size from.
  • #6,486
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:03am Jan 8, 2019 8:03am
Quoting janpec1000
EURCHF in play, ballz in.
EURCHF stopped out, took 3R hit on this one. Played fine along the MM just didnt work.
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  • #6,487
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:10am Jan 8, 2019 8:10am
Quoting janpec1000
Done with FX for today likely, equities in play now. Main turd of the day on watch PCG taking another hit Friday on potential partial liquidation of company, looking for short on pops, AXSM up over 100%, looking to short A grade weakness .
PCG hiting new all time lows after yesterdays neckline got faded. By far the easiest trade of 2018/19 cant believe i didnt placed a single put or short on it over last 1 month. Trades like that come only once a year. Missed initial news in November and also did not do enough homework into the play. 5k going down the drain if not more.
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  • #6,488
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:15am Jan 8, 2019 8:15am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} PCG hiting new all time lows after yesterdays neckline got faded. By far the easiest trade of 2018/19 cant believe i didnt placed a single put or short on it over last 1 month. Trades like that come only once a year. Missed initial news in November and also did not do enough homework into the play. 5k going down the drain if not more. {image}
Sorry to hear you missed this trade! When you have a minute, could you talk a little more on the logic behind the trade? I assume the entry would have been after the pinbar confirmed the flip?
  • #6,489
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:23am Jan 8, 2019 8:23am
Quoting janpec1000
Quick video on tape and reading supply absoprtion, added quick captions to explain it (needs to be open in browser). The same behaviour is present on most A grade supply takeouts in FX, high cap equities, and pullback legs on massive volume. Big seller puts out short at supply, and the sharks target and absorb it, tape showing large bulk bids going trough then the squeeze is on. {file}
This was really interesting. Thanks for posting.
  • #6,490
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:48am Jan 8, 2019 8:48am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Sorry to hear you missed this trade! When you have a minute, could you talk a little more on the logic behind the trade? I assume the entry would have been after the pinbar confirmed the flip?
This isnt technical / orderflow play, just to clear things up. It is hybrid fundy - tech play with a lot meat to the bones. The main core of play which started in mid November was fresh shocking news. When you get news of that type that are fresh which market didnt had chance to chew on, and its the most bearish it can get (company responsible for massive fire damage and peoples deaths) then you put a bear hat on and put asset on watchlist for at least several days, somethimes even weeks or months, depending on how quickly market prices it in. So once you have type of catlyst then using tech weakness structures and failures of supports can be used to short (thats why highlighting the neckline structure on chart).
Some traders might dissagree with that approach because shorting SSR names that are under huge drops and on short seller restriction protocol should not be shorted into weakness due to too easy manipulation on bid by MMs, but i personally like to listen to statistical data as first priority, and data says if news is hugely bearish, then its ok to short weakness with wider SLs.

News of those sorts are rare, for example on macro levels similar catalysts would be all of which i consider tradeable:
-crash of airplane with direct speculation of Boeing being the responsible party for it (shock news, surprise)
-military action that is against consensus of status quo (for example Turkey likely this year against Kurds) on currency / equities side
-failed merger which had huge bullish reaction ahead of it
-Biotech company releasing direct market offering and increasing the overall supply of shares by big factor (not really a surprise because it can be predicted ahead, but it is for most market participants since most people dont read balance sheets)
-company found responsible for some very negative event in recent history, charges, lawsuits and depletion of balance sheet cash.
-....there is alot more to list, would have to dig trough past trades to point all of them out.

So then all you do is ride the trend by either shorting pops or shorting A grade weakness, but best way is usually to go trough options and place puts, much less work.
Bellow some intraday setups of Nov-Dec.
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  • #6,491
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:49am Jan 8, 2019 8:49am
USDDKK on watch, FX market today in zombie mode.
  • #6,492
  • Jan 8, 2019 8:59am Jan 8, 2019 8:59am
On watchlist today RHE , CTXR and MYND for short plays. What do those long term charts have in common...
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  • #6,493
  • Jan 8, 2019 9:03am Jan 8, 2019 9:03am
GBPAUD
  • #6,494
  • Jan 8, 2019 9:15am Jan 8, 2019 9:15am
Quoting janpec1000
GBPAUD
GBPAUD market maker on the bid, likely A grade play setting up.
  • #6,495
  • Jan 8, 2019 9:25am Jan 8, 2019 9:25am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} GBPAUD market maker on the bid, likely A grade play setting up.
GBPAUD took 5R, sized decently on it. And thats the key, know your A grade setup and wait for it patiently whole day, and then play the hand with size once you get it, there is no point chasing after B quality plays, one A grade play a day is all it needs. Still valid for bounce play.
Liquidity is key factor nearly all A grade plays will be baked when asset is very liquid with tight spreads and strong volatility, if those conditions are not present, its unlikely A grade play will be made.
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  • #6,496
  • Jan 8, 2019 9:29am Jan 8, 2019 9:29am
Bitcoin baking two pullback legs in row.
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  • #6,497
  • Jan 8, 2019 9:45am Jan 8, 2019 9:45am
GBPNZD B quality play on watch.
  • #6,498
  • Jan 8, 2019 11:35am Jan 8, 2019 11:35am
Gold
  • #6,499
  • Jan 8, 2019 11:40am Jan 8, 2019 11:40am
Quoting janpec1000
Gold
Missed the entry, target baked.
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  • #6,500
  • Jan 8, 2019 11:53am Jan 8, 2019 11:53am
CLPS parabolic rally on trash volume with heavy volume stuff, basically same as yesterdays AKAO. Short. Fade to 6,00 likely.
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