(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

EURO receiving some decent bid trough whole day. Took another pullback leg long above highs.



Where we are on daily. Some pressure into supply if it takes it out it could be macro play, as for now its B quality however if lower TFs show clear absorption and provide micro entries this could set for solid play, on watch for now alerts set.

Alright last one for today, done.

Joke of the day, this turd just went from all time lows to new 2 year highs within a day. Unless they have discovered how to cure death its unlikely this will hold. On play tomorrow for a fade. As for any bear, when heavy demand / volume kicks in its always important to be respectful to that, dont force shorts because its easy to get run over, patience is the key, waiting for volume fade and when everyone takes eyes of it thats when it will start to fade, likely within next few days.

Checked charts, couldnt resist taking this one, saw bid rejecting flip area, and the solid pop candle trough whole area supply got the deal done.
Took 3 R.

Was said to be done, but not gona pass the golden egg if market gives it. AXSM setting for possible A grade wash. If 7,00 bid cant hold (most likely cant) this can wash hard.

Quick video on tape and reading supply absoprtion, added quick captions to explain it (needs to be open in browser). The same behaviour is present on most A grade supply takeouts in FX, high cap equities, and pullback legs on massive volume. Big seller puts out short at supply, and the sharks target and absorb it, tape showing large bulk bids going trough then the squeeze is on.

Gold....consistency of behaviour is the key in establishing the large rotations.

Took an equities play on the Aussie market - CBA.



Notes:
- Looked like a solid market bottom rotation setup so got a bit eager
- Entered on first break, but it could have been a fakeout, considering how quickly price moved back into the consolidation area
- My retest entry was based on the fact that the microshelf seemed to be respected
- Considering the following strength of the move north, I shouldn't have exited so quickly. There was no sign of exhaustion.
- Took 1R and 1.2R on the two entires, could have been more like 3-4R on each

Questions:
- I'm not quite sure what volume on equities tells us in relation to this play? I note that post-breakout, there was high volume on the microshelf while price barely moved. Finally when price broke out again there was strong volume.
- Should a quick rejection on first break be treated as a warning sign for these sorts of entries?

Thanks!

Missed this one on AUDCAD, feels B grade:



Also took a half-size entry on EURUSD, symmetry isn't great, so B grade I think:

Both of those plays B grade as you noted, better avoid both.

Exited EURUSD with small gains.

Possible continuation play forming on AUDUSD & maybe AUDNZD.

There are two types of behaviour you want to see on supply takeout - breaktrough. And there is one which you dont want to see, which should push you towards instantly cutting some fat of the position.

First scenario is price break supply, stalls a bit and then pushes forward in strong bull move, no push backs. Thats ideal scenario, happens in aprox half of A grade plays (dont have statistical data on it actually so its more of guess there). Second scenario is price breaks and pushes back but bid starts to clearly reject and pushes the flip area strongly back upwards. This will result in price forming strong pinbars right on the flip area of supply. Meaning that if price quickly turns south after supply takeout its not necessarily yet a bad sign, as long as bid steps in and starts to reject flip area, you should only start to become defensive when price swipes trough flip zone and shows no bid rejections and no volume.

So that leaves third scenario which is the one you dont want, is price quickly and strongly turns south and has low volume and no ticking action at flip and just swipes trough it, passing towards 50% of last leg distance, if that happens its better to start trimming position size early.

Volume is usually not of help on those plays, but sometimes it is. Things to look are:
-is candle that moves past supply zone on heavy volume? If so its possibly SL liquidation and could serve as further fuel on move, happens rarely, becuase often its not that strong SL positioning to be that obvious.
-clearout. The most important component to watch on volume are clearouts, if clearout is there the volume should confirm A grade clearout, on equities and futures it usually does, on spot FX volume is not usueful in most cases.

Thanks for the feedback, Janpec.

Possible bottom rotation on XAUEUR.

Edit: Stopped out.



Notes:
- Felt B grade as there wasn't much room between the top of the consolidation area and the previous major swing high
- Spread quite wide, R:R poor, as such placed the stop very tight

Was cooking dinner and missed an A grade play on AUDUSD.

Soft market today, not much action, waiting for NY if gets things going.

Just took a quick one on AUDUSD. Played it as a short market bottom rotation, B grade though I think due to lack of symmetry.

Took 1R. Entry felt a bit late maybe? Waited for rejection on retest.

GU! Solid parbolic Rally

I thought the approach in this thread was to fade parabolic moves?

Edit: Misread, though you said "sold"

Potential continuation trade forming on AUDCAD & USDCAD.

Yep solid play, entry is late though. As soon as whole area lows are taken out thats where entry should be. Or just wait for pullback and short on that pinbar retrace back for higher - better entry.

Too asymmetric, only consider that as short play if demand is taken. For pullback leg continuation play structure needs to have clean lower highs and symmetrical behaviour in legs.