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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,081
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:26pm Mar 23, 2018 4:26pm
If a new currency started now and was quoted at 123 123.50 .quoted up at 12350 12360 and so forth .price remained above its open to market .would you determine the order flow was buy or sell .and would the probability be in favour of that order flow
  • #1,082
  • Mar 23, 2018 5:34pm Mar 23, 2018 5:34pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Are you kidding me with your question??? The best traders in the world get their trades right barely more than half the time. You call that predicting???
Half the TIME. I don't know why everyone is always so oblivious to that word.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,083
  • Mar 23, 2018 8:37pm Mar 23, 2018 8:37pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Already told you. Risk is 20 to at most 40 pips per trade. Gain anywhere from 10 pips to a couple hundred (not counting the outliers where I just got lucky). And let me see you start posting your trades. So far I'm the only one that's done anything at all and it was your idea.
Hahaha u r a good man. Good luck with your forex dream.

Cheers
GS
  • #1,085
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:28pm Mar 23, 2018 9:28pm
Quoting kosmo
Hidden
That wasn't subtle enough, was it? LOL
Maybe try the accents instead. Like the Irish from the Scottish to start with.
mind over matter
  • #1,086
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:32pm Mar 23, 2018 9:32pm
According to Kelly’s Criterion, @ 1:1 Odds (1R) and a win-rate of 50% or less, we have no advantage whatsoever ... conclusion, we should not bet ...
IMHO, going higher than 1R is “feeding” our greed (1.1R is still acceptable, but not more) ...
So the “proper” way to increase the edge is by finding a trading strategy that has a win-rate of 51% or more ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,087
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:56pm Mar 23, 2018 9:56pm
Because most traders around the world are using the same technical analysis tools which creates a pattern. When something is no longer random, it can be predicted. Here's a quick example of price heading to 1.59067 next week with obvious predictably.
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  • #1,088
  • Mar 24, 2018 1:23am Mar 24, 2018 1:23am
Maybe ,,just maybe ones time would be better spent watching what levels a mkt uses ,they will be the same ones regardless of time frame ,,tic charts ,what ever . Tic charts open up a whole new can of worms ,,each pair has a little different volume so the same amount of tics on one pair is gonna look different on a another pair etc etc . a mkt trades around and between levels,, not time frames ,,tic charts when the volume dries up so does the chart movement. Here is a few charts ,,couple popular tic charts then the good ole 15 min chart ,,,the end of the day the level the mkt reacted at was the same regardless of what chart you was looking at ,,tic charts just limit what you can see ,,,where its been and where it may go . 144 tic ,,,,233 tic then the 15 min . eur /usd London open into the US session. Kinda obvious where the line in the sand was is it not ? Support at the pivot levels one sell off from Thursdays mid point then it got bought from the mid point to finish the day out ,,,,,, Levels levels levels maybe repeat that everyday and find the ones the mkt is using .
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  • #1,089
  • Mar 24, 2018 6:48am Mar 24, 2018 6:48am
Quoting digger1
Maybe ,,just maybe ones time would be better spent watching what levels a mkt uses ,they will be the same ones regardless of time frame ,,tic charts ,what ever . Tic charts open up a whole new can of worms ,,each pair has a little different volume so the same amount of tics on one pair is gonna look different on a another pair etc etc . a mkt trades around and between levels,, not time frames ,,tic charts when the volume dries up so does the chart movement. Here is a few charts ,,couple popular tic charts then the good ole 15 min chart ,,,the end...
Agree...often I am lost and bewildered when people mentioned TF.
My 5min spreadsheet chart looks exactly the same as 15,60,240,480min. All showing same level as intraday. m/t and l/t. trade. If the level shift it will shift across all T/F no matter what's the TF. I am glad somebody is also trading like I do.

Cheers
GS
  • #1,090
  • Mar 24, 2018 7:28pm Mar 24, 2018 7:28pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Hahaha u r a good man. Good luck with your forex dream. Cheers GS
The RRR is the most often misunderstood ratio in trading. Probably because on a single trade by trade basis it is utterly meaningless.

First of all, I routinely place traces with a 40 pip SL but close the trade before the SL is hit making for a more narrow RRR than it might actually appear to be. As an example I closed the GBPUSD trade only 12 negative.

Secondly, profitable trading is about the same basic concept as running any profitable business ... profit and loss.

Third, I find it interesting that the person asking for real time trades to be posted now refuses to post trades. I had no problem starting to post mine because Ive been doing this for 6 years. I know what kind of results I'm going to get.

I suspect you're backing out now because you fear what your results might look like. Or as you put it ... good luck with your forex dream.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,091
  • Mar 24, 2018 8:53pm Mar 24, 2018 8:53pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} The RRR is the most often misunderstood ratio in trading. Probably because on a single trade by trade basis it is utterly meaningless. First of all, I routinely place traces with a 40 pip SL but close the trade before the SL is hit making for a more narrow RRR than it might actually appear to be. As an example I closed the GBPUSD trade only 12 negative. Secondly, profitable trading is about the same basic concept as running any profitable business ... profit and loss. Third, I find it interesting that the person asking for real time trades...
Ofc everybody always believe they are right in their own opinion and understanding of RRR and other stuffs. We have already seen enough of that in this thread of which you seem quite assertive.
As for live calls I will definitely love to do it together with you here. It still stand. But my entry level criteria is RRR 1:2 as mentioned earlier. Otherwise imo it's a sheer waste of time.
Come on let's do it on Asian open on Monday. 3 right calls out of 5 is good enough.
The honour is mine to do it with you here boss. Finally I got someone to do it with me. Wonderful.

Cheers
GS
  • #1,092
  • Mar 24, 2018 9:12pm Mar 24, 2018 9:12pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Ofc everybody always believe they are right in their own opinion and understanding of RRR and other stuffs. We have already seen enough of that in this thread of which you seem quite assertive. As for live calls I will definitely love to do it together with you here. It still stand. But my entry level criteria is RRR 1:2 as mentioned earlier. Otherwise imo it's a sheer waste of time. Come on let's do it on Asian open on Monday. 3 right calls out of 5 is good enough. The honour is mine to do it with you here boss. Finally I got someone to...
Oh by the way if you are right 3 out of 5 I guarantee I will buy whatever you want to sell if you decide to go commercial in the future.
  • #1,093
  • Mar 24, 2018 10:07pm Mar 24, 2018 10:07pm
Quoting genghistar
But my entry level criteria is RRR 1:2 as mentioned earlier.
I describe how I trade on my system. Gave a brief highlight of how I trade on this thread. If you want to have a "trading shootout" where we each place trades in real time then I'll place the trades I want to place. You place the trades you want to place. We'll see who trades more profitably. Those are the only "rules" that I'll agree too, not other arbitrary rules regarding RRR.

And limiting this "test" of yours to simply 5 trades is moronic in the extreme. For there to be ANY sort of validity we'd have to show trades for 3 months at minimum.

Secondly, I trade extensively using options and the stock market. For any test of whether or not what I know is any better than what you know, then I'll want to show my options trades as well ... and my stock trades.

In other words, if you want a test to see who can do what, I'll put my full trading skill up against yours. We'll see who trades more profitably.

LASTLY, trading is a business (at least it's what I do for my business). Once you start looking at it like that, profit and loss become all that matter. How much did you gain/lose today, this week, this month, this quarter, and this year. THAT IS WHAT MATTERS.

You can talk about RRR all you want. What matters (to me) is that I make enough trading profit this week, this month, and this year to pay my bills and let me enjoy my life.

So, with all that said, are you ready to trade against me?
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,094
  • Mar 24, 2018 10:20pm Mar 24, 2018 10:20pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} I describe how I trade on my system. Gave a brief highlight of how I trade on this thread. If you want to have a "trading shootout" where we each place trades in real time then I'll place the trades I want to place. You place the trades you want to place. We'll see who trades more profitably. Those are the only "rules" that I'll agree too, not other arbitrary rules regarding RRR. And limiting this "test" of yours to simply 5 trades is moronic in the extreme. For there to be ANY sort of validity we'd have to show trades for 3 months at minimum....
Hahaha I can see you write long and well. I will make it easier for you with 1:1 RRR and if you do 6 out of 10. I will contribute $20,000/- to your trading accounts. No question asked.
Don't bother to reply if you won't do it. Fair?

Cheers
  • #1,095
  • Mar 25, 2018 11:40am Mar 25, 2018 11:40am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Hahaha I can see you write long and well. I will make it easier for you with 1:1 RRR and if you do 6 out of 10. I will contribute $20,000/- to your trading accounts. No question asked. Don't bother to reply if you won't do it. Fair? Cheers
What's fair is for me to put up my trades in real time, you to put up yours in real time, and we'll see who has the most gains. No need to reply if you won't do it. Fair?

No other rules, no arbitarary RRR nonsense. Simple "who has more gains" and that's it. But let me warn you if you're only going to trade forex and I'm going to be trading forex, commodities/options, and stocks ... the likelihood that you're even remotely competitive is pretty slim.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,096
  • Mar 25, 2018 6:22pm Mar 25, 2018 6:22pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} What's fair is for me to put up my trades in real time, you to put up yours in real time, and we'll see who has the most gains. No need to reply if you won't do it. Fair? No other rules, no arbitarary RRR nonsense. Simple "who has more gains" and that's it. But let me warn you if you're only going to trade forex and I'm going to be trading forex, commodities/options, and stocks ... the likelihood that you're even remotely competitive is pretty slim.
I wish to apologise to you for my ungentlemanly conduct. Instead of offering my help I tried to discredit you. All success to you in whatever you seek and good luck.
Cheers
GS
  • #1,097
  • Mar 25, 2018 11:15pm Mar 25, 2018 11:15pm
Very predictable as stated previously, once you figure it out.
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  • #1,098
  • Mar 26, 2018 3:22am Mar 26, 2018 3:22am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} I wish to apologise to you for my ungentlemanly conduct. Instead of offering my help I tried to discredit you. All success to you in whatever you seek and good luck. Cheers GS
  • #1,099
  • Mar 26, 2018 7:39am Mar 26, 2018 7:39am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Hahaha I can see you write long and well. I will make it easier for you with 1:1 RRR and if you do 6 out of 10. I will contribute $20,000/- to your trading accounts. No question asked. Don't bother to reply if you won't do it. Fair? Cheers
Do you trade? Not that 6/10 is hard, but nowadays retail trading is more about managing positions than entering into the market with a set plan unless you are long-term martingale - I hardly ever know my profit before I get there because the situation is changing, this isn't 2010.

I would change the question to...Do we even want to predict anything? Isn't it better to simply adapt to the market?

I wrote a whole bit about being a trader vs an analyst but decided to delete it and just leave those questions.
  • #1,100
  • Mar 26, 2018 11:10am Mar 26, 2018 11:10am
Quoting Catch-22
Do we even want to predict anything? Isn't it better to simply adapt to the market?
I have had traders ask this question before and here is my personal opinion, yours may be different. Placing a trade is making a prediction. When you place a trade you're predicting that the market is going to move in the direction of your position over a long enough time horizon for how you trade for that position to close profitably.

This is why performing various types of analysis is important. The more completely and accurately you analyze the market, the more likely your predictions will be accurate when you place your trades.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
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