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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,061
  • Mar 22, 2018 1:28pm Mar 22, 2018 1:28pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} you're right! I know the answers. you should too. And all the answers involve order flow. But let's see your answers. How is momentum an indicator of price direction? How do you see it on a chart? How do you read it on a chart. Most of your definitions like probabilities and order flow are precise but don't show you really understand them. So be practical and show real examples. Show how they can be used in real life situations.
I would like to ask that since you're the one putting yourself out as someone that VERY clearly understands and knows the answers that you provide them.

So be practical and show real examples.

I mean you started the thread I am supposing in an effort to get people to learn more about how to look at order flow ... so teach me more about it. I'll listen and learn from you. I'm not suggesting your method doesn't work nor am I suggesting there isn't something I can't learn from you. I believe the wise trader works to learn more every single day. I'm all "ears" so to speak.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,062
  • Mar 22, 2018 1:58pm Mar 22, 2018 1:58pm
[quote=Woohiye;10899588]{quote} I would like to ask that since you're the one putting yourself out as someone that VERY clearly understands and knows the answers that you provide them. So be practical and show real examples. I mean you started the thread I am supposing in an effort to get people to learn more about how to look at order flow ... so teach me more about it. I'll listen and learn from you. I'm not suggesting your method doesn't work nor am I suggesting there isn't something I can't learn from you. I believe the wise trader works to learn more every single day. I'm all "ears" so to speak.[/quote

I didn't start this thread. I know how difficult trading is. I've been through all the crap information out there. So I feel for traders learning.
I came on this site to point traders in the right direction. My problem is it took me forever to figure out how to trade. I gave up on listening to others.
What they told me offered up and down trading. So I stopped listening to others and had to develop my own system of trading.

I not only know the answers to the questions I offered. Many of them I had to create the questions because you won't find many offering my questions or answers. And many my define things differently as well. I had to redefine price action. I had to figure out reliable and trustworthy behaviors that no one teaches. No one I know of. I've seen what most people teach and to be honest I think those that learn fundamental trading will have the best avenue to seeing profits. Technical trading is difficult. So in my experience fundamentals is actually easier than technical and will get you profitable quicker. Although I don't think anything is as accurate as trading order flow.

So I'm here to reassure others you can predict price. You have to to win. But to do so you have to understand order flow and be able to read it in real time. There are chart behaviors you can trade off of but real accuracy comes from reading order flow.

Maybe if I'm feeling generous, I'll put some real time charts on and make calls that you can see the end result. Right now, I have a friend asking me to do exactly that. lol Believe me. order flow is the direction you want to pursue but if you want to make money quickly learn fundamentals first. Fundamentals help you understand why currencies move in a particular direction. Audusd used to be over a $1 but because of economic indicators of their economy slowed down the exchange rate dropped considerably. Just knowing that and why gives you currency direction. The same with news announcements. If you know a news announcement doesn't change the value of a countries economy. You trade that back to the current trend. Just find someone that can explain economic events in real terms on a chart and how it will influence price direction.

Take care.
  • #1,063
  • Mar 22, 2018 2:15pm Mar 22, 2018 2:15pm
Quoting ztop
So I stopped listening to others and had to develop my own system of trading.
Do you know what I have found about every single successful trader I've every known (myself included)? Each has their own unique method.

Each learned from others for a little bit, but in the end all someone can teach you is what works for them. But how you think and your world perspective is different from how I think and my perspective. Therefore, the way we trade should be different. That goes for everyone.

Everyone should spend some time looking around and learning and picking and choosing from things they have learned what they do like and don't and create something that works for them specifically. What bothers me is that you seem to act like the way you do things is the only right way without wanting to acknowledge that anyone else might be achieving success doing something else different.

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Many of them I had to create the questions because you won't find many offering my questions or answers.
Yeah, not so sure about this bit. Your questions are almost right out textbook basic trading/investing education you might find at a university with a decent program regarding the markets.

Quote
order flow is the direction you want to pursue but if you want to make money quickly learn fundamentals first. Fundamentals help you understand why currencies move in a particular direction.

See, it's when you say stuff like the above that I start to shake my head. OF COURSE order flow is what you're ultimately looking to predict in your analysis. If the order flow moves in the direction you placed your trade then you make money. If it doesn't, then you lose. So yes, when you're doing market analysis what you're ultimately looking to predict is the direction of order flow. Gee whiz, thanks for that.

And I've been talking about fundamental and sentiment analysis since I started posting in this thread and was bashed for it ... by you.

Quote
Just find someone that can explain economic events in real terms on a chart and how it will influence price direction.

lol ... I already have a thread where I spend time teaching fundamental analysis as part of my system. Thanks though.

Finally, I find it interesting that you refuse to answer your own questions.

edit: fix structure error
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,064
  • Mar 22, 2018 3:19pm Mar 22, 2018 3:19pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Do you know what I have found about every single successful trader I've every known (myself included)? Each has their own unique method. Each learned from others for a little bit, but in the end all someone can teach you is what works for them. But how you think and your world perspective is different from how I think and my perspective. Therefore, the way we trade should be different. That goes for everyone. Everyone should spend some time looking around and learning and picking and choosing from things they have learned what they do like...
"I already have a thread where I spend time teaching fundamental analysis as part of my system." LOL if you're teaching them "there is NO SUCH THING as "real time order flow." OMG! Now I'm even more curious to hear your answers to my questions. Why are you avoiding answering them? You don't have a clue what the answers are do you? DO YOU? If so, so us how much you really know. If they are text book questions which they aren't then you should easily be able to give real insightful answers. I'm sure all others hear would love to hear your answers and see some of your practical examples of how its all done. Please! Share your brilliance with us. One thing for sure you won't be educating anyone on real time order flow. You don't even know it exists! LOL
  • #1,065
  • Edited 8:28pm Mar 22, 2018 7:41pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting ztop
"I already have a thread where I spend time teaching fundamental analysis as part of my system." LOL if you're teaching them "there is NO SUCH THING as "real time order flow."
Okay look. I think we're simply using different words to say the same thing and because we're using different words to say the same thing you are under the mistaken impression that we disagree ... and we don't.

So let me try it like this.

When you are looking at your chart that shows candlesticks, that chart is a representation of order flow that happened in the past, "in real time," as you like to say it. Yes, when you are looking at candlesticks you are looking at order flow. It is my opinion that calling a candlestick chart "real time order flow information" is not accurate when it is in fact simply "past order flow information" (I see this as synonymous with claiming that mountains are a real time representation of the formation of the planet) ... but if you want to call it "real time" go right ahead, at least now I understand what you're saying in that regard. The end result however is that we agree that a chart shows order flow information. We agree on this, do you understand? Do you grasp that we are in agreement here?

Secondly, in looking through your past posts it seemed to me, and maybe my impression was mistaken, that you were trying to say that looking at that past (real time as you call it) order flow information found on a candlestick chart was ALL someone needed to do and that no further analysis was needed.

In fact THAT was really my initial problem with what I understood you claims to be. It was my position that someone needed to perform fundamental and sentiment analysis as well. You have subsequently and somewhat recently clarified that yes, someone should perform fundamental analysis as well. So we are in agreement in that regard as well. Do you understand that we agree in that regard? Do you grasp that we are in agreement here as well?

Now, can you please stop trying to act like I'm attacking you in some way. How many different ways do I need to say, "we agree more than we disagree" before you can grasp that concept? In fact it seems to me the only thing we actually have any real disagreement on is hairsplitting on verbiage of "real time".

Quote
Now I'm even more curious to hear your answers to my questions.

I gave an answer to a question already even if obviously a brief answer. You refuse to answer even one let alone answer it with screenshots of examples like you so laughably asked for. If I'm going to provide screenshots it'll be in my own thread thank you very much. You're the one here making claims, I'm asking you to back them up with proof ... which you are steadfastly refusing to provide. (making me skeptical as to the actual depth of your knowledge)

I have a thread where I demonstrate my knowledge (The TAW system). If you want to see what I know it can be found there in growing detail. Are you willing to demonstrate YOUR knowledge in such a fashion? Are you ready to say, "this is what I know and how I trade and the details behind it all ..." or are you just here trying to scream at people for daring to question anything you say?
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,066
  • Mar 22, 2018 8:01pm Mar 22, 2018 8:01pm
Traders who know the art of tape reading (price only) have the secret and the edge.
  • #1,067
  • Mar 22, 2018 8:53pm Mar 22, 2018 8:53pm
Quoting dawidforex
{image} {image}
Looking forward to seeing some of your legendary charts on FF.
Good Trading
  • #1,068
  • Mar 22, 2018 9:10pm Mar 22, 2018 9:10pm
In my opinion the last few distinguished traders actually agreed with each other that yes it is possible to predict future price movement. Their differences are the means or method to achieve it.
1.ztop said yes with order flowers.
2.wooh said yes with his taw method
3. syn also said yes but didn't want to share his method.
4. myself said no but I can react to PA to follow price movement.

So in summary I think the best solution would be for all of us to make live trade calls here openly with a robust minimum RRR 1:2 to see if all of us are all correct in what we claimed and believe in. No more worries with argument with who is more correct becos maybe we are all correct. Happy ending for all.
So if everybody is agreeable to this live calls suggestion let's get it rolling.

Cheers all happy traders.
GS
  • #1,069
  • Mar 22, 2018 9:15pm Mar 22, 2018 9:15pm
Quoting genghistar
In my opinion the last few distinguished traders actually agreed with each other that yes it is possible to predict future price movement. Their differences are the means or method to achieve it. 1.ztop said yes with order flowers. 2.wooh said yes with his taw method 3. syn also said yes but didn't want to share his method. 4. myself said no but I can react to PA to follow price movement. So in summary I think the best solution would be for all of us to make live trade calls here openly with a robust minimum RRR 1:2 to see if all of us are all correct...
I've already been making live calls on the TAW thread. I gave an open order and the price I opened at. Both have closed in profit. I'll be posting the close prices from the trailing stops talked about in the thread shortly.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,070
  • Mar 22, 2018 9:20pm Mar 22, 2018 9:20pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} I've already been making live calls on the TAW thread. I gave an open order and the price I opened at. Both have closed in profit. I'll be posting the close prices from the trailing stops talked about in the thread shortly.
Respect pls also include the sl so we know the RR
Pls do it here if you don't mind. Consistently 3 out of 5 calls would put you in the top league of traders
Cheers.
  • #1,071
  • Mar 22, 2018 9:40pm Mar 22, 2018 9:40pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Respect pls also include the sl so we know the RR Pls do it here if you don't mind. Consistently 3 out of 5 calls would put you in the top league of traders Cheers.
Okay, you can check my thread for the real time look but today the public calls that I made was EURUSD closed 10pips in profit but GBPUSD closed 12pips negative for a 2 pips total loss. You can get exact entry and exit prices on the thread. Going forward I'll continue to provide summaries here which can be verified if anyone wants on my thread but I'm not going to post the same stuff in two threads that's just a waste of my time.

Oh, and I don't close my positions at arbitrarily designated TP points so the RR isn't possible to calculate.

As a general rule my stops range from 20 to maybe 40 pips from my entries. However I make extensive use of trailing stops and allow my positions to run. A position can close anywhere from just 10pips in profit (the place where an initial profit taking trailing stop gets set) to many hundreds of pips (once the 50 pip trailing stop gets set).

My RRR can be 2:1 (20 pip SL but a 10 pip initial profit taking stop once the pair is 50 pips in profit) to 1:100 or more (20pip SL but the 50 pip trailing stop gets set 80 pips in profit and can run sometimes for quite a while).
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,072
  • Mar 22, 2018 9:46pm Mar 22, 2018 9:46pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Okay, you can check my thread for the real time look but today the public calls that I made was EURUSD closed 10pips in profit but GBPUSD closed 12pips negative for a 2 pips total loss. You can get exact entry and exit prices on the thread. Going forward I'll continue to provide summaries here which can be verified if anyone wants on my thread but I'm not going to post the same stuff in two threads that's just a waste of my time.
Boss I have no doubt you can get 10-10000pips daily but I am more concern the risks you take to achieve your target. Just copy and paste from your thread easy.
Cheers
  • #1,073
  • Mar 23, 2018 12:36am Mar 23, 2018 12:36am
Quoting Dt3
Traders who know the art of tape reading (price only) have the secret and the edge.
bravo! there is someone that understands--but instead of using a tape or dom --you use real time price.
  • #1,074
  • Mar 23, 2018 1:04am Mar 23, 2018 1:04am
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Okay look. I think we're simply using different words to say the same thing and because we're using different words to say the same thing you are under the mistaken impression that we disagree ... and we don't. So let me try it like this. When you are looking at your chart that shows candlesticks, that chart is a representation of order flow that happened in the past, "in real time," as you like to say it. Yes, when you are looking at candlesticks you are looking at order flow. It is my opinion that calling a candlestick chart "real time...

"When you are looking at your chart that shows candlesticks, that chart is a representation of order flow that happened in the past, "in real time," as you like to say it. Yes, when you are looking at candlesticks you are looking at order flow. " Wrong! We are not saying the same thing. Most of chart formations are not real time order flow. Real time order flow is makes a candle what it is. Its the data coming in to create the candle and make it what it is. What amuses me is you'd never understand it unless I told you. And I know you don't know how to read it or take advantage of it. Yet you and that other fellow are telling everyone it doesn't exist. Well you're right in one sense. It doesn't exist for you because you're clueless about it and your comment proves it.

The other candles on the chart are more of historical data representing order flow. It's certainly helpful but most traders don't understand how to read that either. How do I know? Because I've been to too many seminars, webinars and sites that never teach the answers to the questions I posed. That's why you can't answer the questions I wrote. Cause what you call textbook questions aren't textbook at all. You're being dishonest. That statement isn't accurate and its misleading. Most traders can't answer those questions because they don't understand order flow. They don't understand how price works so they work off probabilities. Just like you do. When you understand price and how it works you don't work off probabilities you work off how price works and how it doesn't work and trade based on the outcome you expect because you're trading off of trusted behaviors. But what makes you the most accurate isn't past price but real time price.

Stop trying to act as if you know something you have no clue about. You don't and your comments show you don't. I think you're trying to be an expert when you're very limited in your understanding of how price works. I've said my piece. But if you continue to suggest that I'm misleading people. I'll be back. I should check in on you to make sure you're teaching others real relevant and practical trading concepts. But I'll leave that up to those listening to you.
  • #1,075
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:49am Mar 23, 2018 10:49am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Boss I have no doubt you can get 10-10000pips daily but I am more concern the risks you take to achieve your target. Just copy and paste from your thread easy. Cheers
Already told you. Risk is 20 to at most 40 pips per trade. Gain anywhere from 10 pips to a couple hundred (not counting the outliers where I just got lucky).

And let me see you start posting your trades. So far I'm the only one that's done anything at all and it was your idea.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,076
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:21am Mar 23, 2018 11:21am
Quoting ztop
We are not saying the same thing. Most of chart formations are not real time order flow. Real time order flow is makes a candle what it is. Its the data coming in to create the candle and make it what it is
I see, you want to split hairs over verbiage because I'm not saying things using the exact words in the exact order you would have used them or I add in extra words so therefore we're saying different things.

You can't claim that candles represent real time order flow but then when I say they represent real time order flow tell me I'm wrong.

Secondly, I've brought up the tick charts, refreshed every half a second, in the past and you said then that wasn't real time order flow either. You then made a comment about candlesticks. So I'm going to ask you one more time. Are you looking at candlesticks or are you looking at the tick chart?

Quote
. What amuses me is you'd never understand it unless I told you. And I know you don't know how to read it or take advantage of it. Yet you and that other fellow are telling everyone it doesn't exist.
Ok, then please explain what you are doing that gives you "real time order flow" on your MT4 at the same time you're also looking at candles. What exactly do you do to see this real time information? What timeframes are you looking at with your candles? Can you even provide a simple screenshot that shows you're getting this real time information?

So if you're saying you can do something and something does exist ... basically I'm going to ask you to provide me a screenshot proving the existence of what you claim.

Because let me tell you, if all you can show me is a chart with candles on it (and I don't give a crap what the TF happens to be) then I'm going to have to ask you to explain how I was wrong above when I said candles are a representation of realtime order flow that happened in the past.

Quote
The other candles on the chart are more of historical data representing order flow.
Wait ... are you trying to say that the current candle that is forming is what "real time order flow" is? Is that what you're trying to suggest?

Quote
That's why you can't answer the questions I wrote.
Oh I could, and easily. But you refuse to answer them at all, even with brief answers while trying to demand everyone else to provide a small thesis to each one. I'm beginning to wonder if you came up with the questions, can't find answers, and now you're trying to get others to answer them. I already answered one of the questions briefly ... will you bother to answer even just one of yours? So far you've dodged it every time I asked you to do it.

You want me to do something you steadfastly refuse to do. Ante up, or shut up.

Quote
Cause what you call textbook questions aren't textbook at all. You're being dishonest.
Oh good lord. Type, "how does momentum affect stock price" into google. That first question AT MINIMUM is such a textbook question the answer can be found on friggen lame investopedia for crying out loud. You seriously need to knock it off with this superior attitude you're coming up with until you can put up ANY kind of proof you even know what you're talking about.

Quote
That statement isn't accurate and its misleading. Most traders can't answer those questions because they don't understand order flow.
You keep saying this. So I'm going to ask you once again, prove to me that you're really even looking at order flow and not just candles. Show me what you think "real time order flow" even is and what you're looking at. I mean I'm asking for a simple screenshot and typing less text than you used up just to type this one post so it should be nothing for you to accomplish. Less than a minut.

Quote
They don't understand how price works so they work off probabilities.
And here we go again. ALL PREDICTION IS PROBABILISTIC. All of it. Unless you're willing to prove that 100% of your trades close profitably 100% of the time then that means you occasionally place a losing trade. That means your prediction when you placed the trade about the direction of order flow was wrong because the probability went against you.

Quote
When you understand price and how it works you don't work off probabilities you work off how price works and how it doesn't work and trade based on the outcome you expect because you're trading off of trusted behaviors.
Oh good grief, you're still making a prediction when you place an order and you're placing that order because you believe that your prediction is LIKELY/PROBABLE to be correct. You are working off probabilities no matter how much you want to try and wordsmith around it.

Secondly, I perform the analysis that I do because I do in fact work from a set of trusted behaviors that often end up being correct. How I perform my analysis is different than how you perform yous. To suggest that simply because how I perform my analysis is not the same as yours that mine is inferior and/or wrong is idiotic in the extreme because you have ZERO idea as to how profitably I trade.

Quote
But what makes you the most accurate isn't past price but real time price. Stop trying to act as if you know something you have no clue about. You don't and your comments show you don't.
And yet you refuse to provide any proof that you can trade profitably, refuse to answer even just one of your own simple questions, refuse to tell us how you're getting "real time order flow" on the same chart you're looking at candles ... need I go on?

You're sitting here acting all high and mighty and talking down to everyone at the same time you've yet to demonstrate A SINGLE THING that you have claimed.

It's time for you to start proving what you claim.

Quote
I think you're trying to be an expert when you're very limited in your understanding of how price works.
I never claimed I was an expert at anything. The only one claiming any sort of expertise here is you. I have said that I've been trading for my living for the last 6 years however I've never told anyone that my way was the right way. I've only told people how I do things and that they should maybe see if what I'm doing can help improve what they are but each person should craft their own unique style.

So, mr. expert in real time order flow ... are you willing to back up your nonsense with even a little proof? Or are you here just trying to talk like you know something about something when really the opposite is true?

At minimum prove you are even getting real time order flow by showing us what you're looking at. It'll take you less than a minute.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,077
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:51am Mar 23, 2018 11:51am
Quoting ztop
Wrong!
I'm going to make this simple for you since my previous post was so long. You have said that you look at real time order flow. I have said that I don't think there is a such thing and the closest you can get to real time order flow is a tick chart (which is orders that happened a minimum of half a second in the past). You however have talked more than once about looking at candles which most definitely ARE NOT "real time" by any definition of that word.

You say something exists, I say it doesn't. So to end what is becoming a tirelessly boring debate I am now asking you to prove it.

Prove that you are looking at real time order flow by giving us a screenshot. A simple, "look, this is real time order flow, you can see this real time order flow here."

Seriously if you used up more than three or four sentences and needed more than 30 seconds to a minute I'd be surprised. Show us you're getting real time order flow, show us what you think "real time order flow" is.

You don't have to tell us the ins and outs of how you trade. You simply need to give a screenshot of your computer and say, "You can see real time order flow by looking here. Do you see *this thing* on the screenshot? That's real time order flow." Two sentences. You wrote a long diatribe just to ridicule me for not believing you about real time order flow. Surely you can spend less than a minute to give us all an education as to what you think real time order flow even is right?
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,078
  • Mar 23, 2018 12:40pm Mar 23, 2018 12:40pm
I think what Woohiye is saying, without saying very clearly, is that there is a difference between order flow and price flow. Orders are not necessarily filled because the price may not ever reach that price. Unless you are using market maker level software you won't be able to see people's orders coming in for forex - and if you are that's great and you have a severe advantage over others (and I don't mean mt4 manager or lxtools).

The closest thing normal people can get is an order book that constantly updates like something on Binance I imagine.

Anyway, remember 90% of people here are rich pro-traders that make 50k a month and 1000 pips monthly, lol - nobody is proving crap here because they can't. Most of those that can can't because it would be illegal or at least breaking an NDA.
  • #1,079
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 23, 2018 1:41pm | Edited 3:26pm
What is a 'Tick'
A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in the price of a security. A tick can also refer to the change in the price of a security from trade to trade.
Read more: Tick https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t...#ixzz51qNpGx9v

Ticks Trading Definition
A tick is the smallest possible price change for the market in question, and may be anywhere on the right side of the decimal point. Markets have different tick sizes, and how much each tick is worth varies by the futures contract. The S&P 500 E-Mini has a tick size of 0.25, crude oil has a tick size 0.01, and gold futures (GC) have a tick size of 0.10.
Pasted from <https://www.thebalance.com/points-ti...amples-1031347>

“Tick volume” measures the number of times the price ticks up and down.
Pasted from <https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-art...f-trades/10825>

Tick Volume
The number of ticks or price changes in a given time interval.
Pasted from <http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary...lume_2188.html>

What is a "tick" as defined by Metaquotes?
"Price quotes" are not "Orders/Transactions/Trades"

CREATING TICK INDICATORS IN MQL5
"……..The tick_stored variable will be used to store the number of quotes available. ……...
We will limit the number of quotes, that should be read from the file by the half of a number of bars on the chart……...If the quotes has been read before into the TicksBuffer[] array, we write a new price values to the file, place a new price to TicksBuffer[] array and increase the quotes counter:
Pasted from <https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/60>

"The smallest time unit between changes in the price of any currency pair is called a single tick, and a sequence of consecutive ticks is referred to as streaming data. During period of heavy trading, there may be as many as three hundred ticks in a single minute. Conversely, during periods of low trading (such as in certain minor currency pairs over the weekend), several hours can elapse between individual ticks.

Tick data does not have an open, high, low, or close quote it simply tells the previous price. The OHLC quotes occur only after tick data has been collected and coerced into interval data, such as one minute, one hour, one day, or any other selected duration". the forex charting companion -Archer
Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post10357556>

The candlesticks are a series of "ticks" (price quotes) coerced into interval data………..
Volume of "ticks" (tick vol) is the volume of "price quotes"(not "orders") generated by your brokers data feed…….

Some food for thought
Pasted from <http://fxgears.com/index.php?threads...-liquidity.80/>

"The volume of "price changes" (quotes), has nothing to do with the "volume of trades" or "volume of contracts"
There is a discrepancy in tick volume between brokers , due to the speed of the individual brokers price (quote) feeds.

Something that's been bothering me a lot lately that relates to MetaTrader 4, and most forex focused platforms for that matter: The confusion around volume as displayed in the platform thanks to MetaQuotes (and other's) misrepresentation of the indicator.

In essence, MetaTrader 4 doesn't report real volume in dollars transacted terms. What MetaTrader (and most other fx platform) does is measure the "tick" volume. This difference matters.

I believe this came to be thanks to combining the following two points:

1) Spot forex is traded in a fragmented and decentralized way. There is no central point of exchange, nor a central point of regulation or reporting, and there's so many different product structures (non-standardized contracts between venues, NDFs, swaps, etc) in spot which transact over so many different types of venues (dark pools, lit pools, ECNs, Banks, MMs, etc..) that there is simply no way to know the true dollar amount in transacted volume worldwide on any given currency pair. Atop of that, it would be unreliable to try and 'guess' the volume based on only looking at one transaction venue or geographical location (...signaling risk alone will cause some firms will execute their larger positions across multiple venues, in different market centers, between different banks, at different times of the day.)

2) Retail traders, and traders in general, coming over to spot forex from the stock, futures, or options markets expect some measure of volume as these markets generally operate on centralized exchanges that can accurately report such info. Many strategies are even based on volume for price confirmation. So the 'client demand' is huge for a measure of volume and the absence of such an indicator on a given trading platform might be perceived as a problem when selling forex as an instrument to trade.

Understanding this demand, MetaQuotes has had "Tick Volume" in MetaTrader for ages now to be used as a substitute for actual volume.

"Tick Volume" is a measure of how often the price 'ticks' up or down. Literally the frequency of ticks within a given time period. The explanation MetaQuotes gives, and their justification of using "Tick Volume", is that price doesn't generally move unless transactions take place, and the more moves the more transactions must be happening.

That would be great on it's own, but MetaQuotes takes one additional step further that can create a bit of confusion: They just call it "Volume", and are not upfront about how it's measured.

Sure there's a few details about tick volume if you use the help menu within MT4 or dig around online, but to new users (or people who just haven't been interested enough to dig deeper) it's just "volume.." This suggests a measure of actual dollars transacted (which as we've already established, is impossible to currently measure in spot.)

This terminology difference isn't the end of the world, unless of course some big name in the forex industry comes out and compounds the problem further by expanding on this terminology difference instead of correcting it...

In early 2013, MyFXBook came out with a "liquidity" tool that measures the difference of 'tick' volumes between brokers--of course just calling it "volume" and downplaying any mention of "ticks"--and insinuates that the higher tick volume means greater 'liquidity'.

I kid you not, from their official announcement of the tool (also visible from the link I'll provide further down):

Why would one want to do that you may ask? The answer is that higher volume means higher liquidity which translates to lower (or better) spreads.

"So not only are they furthering the misrepresentation of volume found in MetaTrader, but they are adding to the confusion by making a connection between tick volume and possible liquidity of a broker. There is no connection here.. a broker's liquidity available is entirely, 100%, independent of the tick volume they display.

Put another way, if I was a broker and I wanted to increase the standing of my brokerage to the top of the volume charts at MyFXBook--to stand out from the rest of my competition obviously--I'd just refresh my quotes twice as much as anyone else despite not having the liquidity available to back it up.

But that doesn't matter, since MyFXBook has told everyone that tick volume equates to liquidity, so I'll still look golden. (The same way a few junk brokers have cut their spreads down artificially to be the best on spread comparison sites, despite making up for it with higher commissions or indirectly though slippage.)

So like a good citizen of the net, and concerned user, I called MyFXBook out on this:
http://blog.myfxbook.com/2013/01/14/.../#comment-3462
(Just in case they get wise and delete the comment, I screen capped it here: http://i.imgur.com/QnJ8w93.jpg)

They responded that they fully were aware of the difference, but did it anyway since 'MetaQuotes' felt it was acceptable. Great, compound a mistake and say it's ok because others started it... didn't you hear the old "if everyone jumped off a bridge, would you do it too?"…………………….

So say it with me: Tick Volume != Liquidity. And don't be afraid to point this out next time you hear someone suggest it does.
Metatrader 4 Tick Volume in FX does not Equal Liquidity"

Pasted from <http://fxgears.com/index.php?threads...-liquidity.80/>
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,080
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:01pm Mar 23, 2018 4:01pm
Are you kidding me with your question???

The best traders in the world get their trades right barely more than half the time. You call that predicting???
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
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