Hello,
I having been discretionary/manually trading unsuccessfully for 3 years via my own price action trading strategy. I took a year off trading to think about why my trading business is failing.
I come to the conclusion: I need program and back test my own trading ideas/strategy for odds of winning based on historical backtesting data. I need to have confidence that the strategy/system has produced money in the past and worth trading in the future with real cash.
So all capital is on reserve as I proceed to developing a fully automated trading system. I only want to test my own trading ideas from years of watching price action on the charts.
So for the past few months I have been programming a few strategies in NinjaTrader. I do have a programming back ground.
I click the back test button and the results on a few strategies look good. Good meaning, profit made from 4 years of historical back testing.
Now I do not know what to do next. I struggle deeply with trust of the back testing historical data. I honestly do not know how test the system for robustness, strength, and odds of winning.
Questions Please:
1. I need a step by step process on to
1. How To Properly Test a Strategy.
2. How to Decide if the strategy is worth going live or how to evaluate a system performance.
3. How to walk forward
4. When and How to Optimize a Strategy.
Do you know if any book, Ebook, recommended training course on properly designing and testing strategies?
For instance, I may come up with 100 trading strategies to program and test, I need a check list to see which one go live and which one goes in trash.
Thank you kindly. I really appreciate any help I can get.
I having been discretionary/manually trading unsuccessfully for 3 years via my own price action trading strategy. I took a year off trading to think about why my trading business is failing.
I come to the conclusion: I need program and back test my own trading ideas/strategy for odds of winning based on historical backtesting data. I need to have confidence that the strategy/system has produced money in the past and worth trading in the future with real cash.
So all capital is on reserve as I proceed to developing a fully automated trading system. I only want to test my own trading ideas from years of watching price action on the charts.
So for the past few months I have been programming a few strategies in NinjaTrader. I do have a programming back ground.
I click the back test button and the results on a few strategies look good. Good meaning, profit made from 4 years of historical back testing.
Now I do not know what to do next. I struggle deeply with trust of the back testing historical data. I honestly do not know how test the system for robustness, strength, and odds of winning.
Questions Please:
1. I need a step by step process on to
1. How To Properly Test a Strategy.
2. How to Decide if the strategy is worth going live or how to evaluate a system performance.
3. How to walk forward
4. When and How to Optimize a Strategy.
Do you know if any book, Ebook, recommended training course on properly designing and testing strategies?
For instance, I may come up with 100 trading strategies to program and test, I need a check list to see which one go live and which one goes in trash.
Thank you kindly. I really appreciate any help I can get.