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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #281
  • Edited 10:20pm Dec 17, 2007 10:08pm | Edited 10:20pm
Ok, here's an Idea, if enough people would watch for setups and mention them here we could see how well this performs. its definately a profitable method...97% would be wild, but 3 out of 4 wins would work...ya never know.

So if you see a setup forming, drop by and post it. Its a very simple method.
Just pick a currency in an uptrend on a daily chart, then watch the 30 min
chart for approaching double or more tops and double or more trendlines about to break. Its that simple, even newbie's can get in on it.

Now this is Johnw's thread, its up to Him if this idea is ok.

Lets give Him the benefit of the doubt about 97%, I'd be happy with 7 out of 10.
  • #282
  • Dec 17, 2007 10:13pm Dec 17, 2007 10:13pm
Quoting FXNorm

Now this is Johnw's thread, its up to Him if this idea is ok.

Lets give Him the benefit of the doubt about 97%, I'd be happy with 7 out of 10.
Or you could start a separate thread.
  • #283
  • Dec 17, 2007 10:51pm Dec 17, 2007 10:51pm
Not 100% sure if I've got this right but possible setup on USD/JPY with resistance at 113.48 - will have to wait and see if it plays out.
  • #284
  • Dec 17, 2007 10:59pm Dec 17, 2007 10:59pm
I disagree. I've seen a lot of great looking systems and setups: good chart patterns coupled with trend bias and/or S/R filters. When you test them over a long enough period (assuming they have rigid rules that can be tested), you're lucky to find just a few that can provide a small edge. Of course, you can still make money with a small edge, but much more is being claimed here.

97% accuracy is dang near impossible, unless the risk/reward is terrible. I'll believe it if John W or someone else can make several hundred real time calls with that win rate. Or if they can provide clear rules that can be backtested, and I prove it for myself.

This isn't meant to be an attack on John W. The idea looks good and may be profitable. I'd like to see more. But 97% is WAY too much to give anyone the benefit of the doubt for...


Quoting FXNorm

Now this is Johnw's thread, its up to Him if this idea is ok.

Lets give Him the benefit of the doubt about 97%, I'd be happy with 7 out of 10.
  • #285
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:10pm Dec 17, 2007 11:10pm
Hi Iced,

First, take a look at the daily chart, you'll notice its in a down trend. That would cancel the trade.
Always look at the daily chart first. You can easily add 50 and 100 moving averages to the chart to help with trend and bias direction.
At the moment there's not very many charts in an uptrend. I wonder how well this method works in a down trend, probably not quite as well because more people tend to go long rather than short, would be my guess.
I'll be watching down trending currency's also. Maybe the big boys like to hit the long players that like to pick bottoms. It will be interesting to see if the price breaks above 113.50 on USD/JPY and by how much on the first break.
  • #286
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:10pm Dec 17, 2007 11:10pm
I don't think it passes the daily trend test, though.

Quoting ICED
Not 100% sure if I've got this right but possible setup on USD/JPY with resistance at 113.48 - will have to wait and see if it plays out.
  • #287
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:17pm Dec 17, 2007 11:17pm
FXNorm & Longshot:

Your right - I was a bit anxious and looked for trend on the 1hr instead of the daily. Back to the drawing board!

Thanks
  • #288
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:26pm Dec 17, 2007 11:26pm
Quoting FXNorm
I wonder how well this method works in a down trend, probably not quite as well because more people tend to go long rather than short, would be my guess.
But when you are long one currency you are short the other it is paired with...

In FX there is no bias to "going long."
  • #289
  • Dec 17, 2007 11:50pm Dec 17, 2007 11:50pm
Love a good Holy Grail....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23087
  • #290
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:05am Dec 18, 2007 8:05am
The thing I fear the most about this strategy is the risk/reward ratio. If you risk 30 pips should you not at least be going after 30 pips or more for the ratio to be fvourable. yes I know that it is much easier to hit a target of 10 pips than it is tto hit 30. But what happends if you get 10 losses in a row? and you only make one gain of 10 pips. -30x10=-300. +10x1 =+10 total -290 pips. This is my fear.
  • #291
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:17am Dec 18, 2007 8:17am
I'm a newbie begin learn forex half year ago
After lose some money(live account), I found this forum.

JohnW is good guy! because he share his trading system on which he maybe spend many many times.

I want to try this trading system, but I can't understand this method well because my poor english. Where can I find some charts about this
trading system . It's too hard for me to follow without some charts.

But I still think, it's a great gift for newbies like me.
(sorry for my English)
Try to understand English Try to understand Forex
  • #292
  • Dec 18, 2007 8:59am Dec 18, 2007 8:59am
Quoting digimix
The thing I fear the most about this strategy is the risk/reward ratio. If you risk 30 pips should you not at least be going after 30 pips or more for the ratio to be fvourable. yes I know that it is much easier to hit a target of 10 pips than it is tto hit 30. But what happends if you get 10 losses in a row? and you only make one gain of 10 pips. -30x10=-300. +10x1 =+10 total -290 pips. This is my fear.
It doesn't matter if you are risking more than your reward on each trade if you have a high enough win rate. Especially with one as high as >90%. The odds of 2 consecutive losses with a >90% win rate are very low, and 3 in a row should almost ever happen, to say nothing of 10 in a row LOL.
  • #293
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:18am Dec 18, 2007 9:18am
Digimix, 10 losses in a row is a 50% win system...totally useless. If you find a system that only wins 50%... RUN!
  • #294
  • Edited 12:40pm Dec 18, 2007 9:46am | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting FXNorm
Digimix, 10 losses in a row is a 50% win system...totally useless. If you find a system that only wins 50%... RUN!
A 40% win rate strategy with the right R/R can win consistently. And a 90% win rate strategy with a poor R/R, unless executed perfectly each time, can be a loser.

+ + +

A 97% successful system over a long period is called

Don't know, because I have never heard of one.

Other than a pit trader scalping with miniscule commission costs and instantaneous execution. And almost every trader "that moves upstairs" into a trading firm forgets any thought of continuing to scalp. Forgot when I originally posted this to mention the fact that pit traders can also buy on the bid and sell on the offer. Most times they don't have to give up the spread. Something not available in forex except maybe when you could buy on the bid because the market is going down, down, down and vice versa.

So they know it is not practical to trade with small targets and high win rate.
  • #295
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:51am Dec 18, 2007 9:51am
At 40% you could have 16 losses in a row... no thanks
  • #296
  • Dec 18, 2007 9:54am Dec 18, 2007 9:54am
Quoting FXNorm
At 40% you could have 16 losses in a row... no thanks
40% is in reference to any system, not this brilliant one.

And last time I did the calculation 40% equals 4 of 10.
  • #297
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:33am Dec 18, 2007 10:33am
Well, what to say?
First of all JohnW thank you very much for sharing your system with us, it is very generous.
Second, I think 97% success rate can be reached with this system for some consecutives months if, AND ONLY IF, one has a very good eye on what are the supports and resistences that JohnW suggests to look for. I made a lot of manual backtesting in the last hours with this system, and for what I got in some years it is very easy to make money with this system, other years it's way less easy. Well, you know, it's really true that a system must fit as much as possible the trader, maybe this system fits very well you, JohnW. Again, thank you very much.
.Ubeee.
  • #298
  • Dec 18, 2007 10:54am Dec 18, 2007 10:54am
Quoting FXNorm
Digimix, 10 losses in a row is a 50% win system...totally useless. If you find a system that only wins 50%... RUN!
Norm

I don't understand the point of your post. If there were a way to get 100 pips half of the time and lose only 20 pips the other half of the time then it would be stupid not to trade it.

%winning doesn't matter alone. You have to couple it with your avg gain and avg loss.

Any thoughts on starting a new thread testing JohnW's way of trading?

Would LOVE to see people post proof of their live account results. Yet something tells me that those who lose doing this won't...
  • #299
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:12am Dec 18, 2007 11:12am
JFX, no thanks, I can't handle any system that can produce 12 losses in a row and still be a winner...I'll pass
  • #300
  • Dec 18, 2007 11:15am Dec 18, 2007 11:15am
Quoting JFX81
%winning doesn't matter alone...


We tried but some want to learn the hard way. Can't stop 'em.
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