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  • #17,301
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:27am Oct 9, 2014 2:27am
I have a theory of a trend change/sizable pullback in roughly 40min. Expecting new highs before it does so.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #17,302
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:42am Oct 9, 2014 2:42am
Quoting AmiFX
I think bull is over. Short from today {image}
Nice chart. Having same opinion.
Think what they want you to think and do the opposite.
  • #17,303
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:53am Oct 9, 2014 2:53am
Quoting Matts Micro
I have a theory of a trend change/sizable pullback in roughly 40min. Expecting new highs before it does so.
Matts Micro I like your theory very very much! To which level you expect gold falls?
  • #17,304
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:56am Oct 9, 2014 2:56am
IMHO

USD/JPY is moving on to it double top in H4 and daily chart. Price is coming down.

EUR and GBP is not showing sign of weakness via technical analysis, (despite all the news saying europe is doing badly)

Gold is on a big Head and shoulder pattern follow by breaking of daily channel in upward movement.

Bulls are riding on a much more advantage position at the moment.

Bullish is my point of view. Should be able to confirm once the 0800 hours candle is out.
  • #17,305
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:00am Oct 9, 2014 3:00am
Quoting forexinwesto
{quote} Matts Micro I like your theory very very much! To which level you expect gold falls?
Silver not reacting to my plan but still ok. I will be looking for 1215 initially though imo could go much lower. This BO needs to be halted first however as per plan. If it continues it could launch into a spike for the bulls.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #17,306
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:11am Oct 9, 2014 3:11am
Continues to grind up despite entering strong resistance zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 37 KB
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,307
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:12am Oct 9, 2014 3:12am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Silver not reacting to my plan but still ok. I will be looking for 1215 initially though imo could go much lower. This BO needs to be halted first however as per plan. If it continues it could launch into a spike for the bulls.
I tend to agree with your view, I am also looking for a deeper retracement once this move up reverses...
from a price analysis perspective, this move NEEDS a proper retracement to gain any real credibility...
a 61.8% from current levels puts us at the ~1200 level, which would be an amazing setup

also looking at UJ which is coming into a major demand zone... we may have this play out into early next week...

add: we are currently at the top end of a supply zone on H4
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,308
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:17am Oct 9, 2014 3:17am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I tend to agree with your view, I am also looking for a deeper retracement once this move up reverses... from a price analysis perspective, this move NEEDS a proper retracement to gain any real credibility... a 61.8% from current levels puts us at the ~1200 level, which would be an amazing setup also looking at UJ which is coming into a major demand zone... we may have this play out into early next week... add: we are currently at the top end of a supply zone on H4
We already retraced $16 from 1221 yesterday. Thats a pretty sizeable retracement to me...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,309
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:21am Oct 9, 2014 3:21am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} We already retraced $16 from 1221 yesterday. Thats a pretty sizeable retracement to me...

yea I hear you, but the big money boys dont look at H1 charts when they build positions

and while technically that was a retracement, it was a spike in both directions driven by fundies... so I would apply a discount to that one...

additionally, looking at the move up since then, theres is little volume, and fading momentum behind this up move

which leads me to think that a deeper retrace is in the making...

just my 2 cents...

mind you, I am a bull, and want to see this retracement ONLY so that i can add some heavy longs with conviction...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,310
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:26am Oct 9, 2014 3:26am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} yea I hear you, but the big money boys dont look at H1 charts when they build positions and while technically that was a retracement, it was a spike in both directions driven by fundies... so I would apply a discount to that one... additionally, looking at the move up since then, theres is little volume, and fading momentum behind this up move which leads me to think that a deeper retrace is in the making... just my 2 cents... mind you, I am a bull, and want to see this retracement ONLY so that i can add some heavy longs with conviction...
I disagree. A retracement is a retracement... somebody needs to capitulate and sell for price to move down, it doesn't matter one bit if it happens intraday or on the daily.

And we already got down to nearly 1200 yesterday (not quite 1200 but I'll take 1205), that was the dip that should have been bought if you were convinced that the low is in.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,311
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:27am Oct 9, 2014 3:27am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} yea I hear you, but the big money boys dont look at H1 charts when they build positions and while technically that was a retracement, it was a spike in both directions driven by fundies... so I would apply a discount to that one... additionally, looking at the move up since then, theres is little volume, and fading momentum behind this up move which leads me to think that a deeper retrace is in the making... just my 2 cents... mind you, I am a bull, and want to see this retracement ONLY so that i can add some heavy longs with conviction...

ok so i just took a tiny short (half lot) at 1228.02, stop 1231, target is around 1200 but not firm
if this plays well, i'll add to it on the next lower high
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,312
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:28am Oct 9, 2014 3:28am
Quoting Spec_And
{quote} I disagree. A retracement is a retracement... somebody needs to capitulate and sell for price to move down, it doesn't matter one bit if it happens intraday or on the daily.
differing opinions is what makes a market buddy!
cheers!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,313
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:33am Oct 9, 2014 3:33am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} differing opinions is what makes a market buddy! cheers!
Yes I can respect that.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #17,314
  • Oct 9, 2014 3:43am Oct 9, 2014 3:43am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} ok so i just took a tiny short (half lot) at 1228.02, stop 1231, target is around 1200 but not firm if this plays well, i'll add to it on the next lower high

UJ (an inverse proxy for Gold) is looking like it may paint a reversal candle on H1...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,315
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:31am Oct 9, 2014 4:31am
Quoting Hunterrus
On the VSA basis 34-37 is the first resistance and price is heading there {image}
There could be resistance around for two reasons:

 

  1. The peakout on H1 may have come in play
  2. SMA 555 on H1, my fav. could give BULLS a hard time

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss.PNG Size: 22 KB
Hello World!
  • #17,316
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:45am Oct 9, 2014 4:45am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} There could be resistance around for two reasons: The peakout on H1 may have come in play SMA 555 on H1, my fav. could give BULLS a hard time {image}
went long at 1225-6 to 34
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDM15 36.png Size: 32 KB
Gold Annihilation System
  • #17,317
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:52am Oct 9, 2014 4:52am
Quoting Hunterrus
{quote} went long at 1225-6 to 34 {image}
I would love to buy if there is a bottom out ahead. For today's PA, I think US has something for us. Either its going up or down from here, at least 5 - 10 $s. If there is a peak-out, I would like to sell some.

For serious longs, I shall wait for a clean & clear Bingo bottom out on H1 (preferably with H4)
Hello World!
  • #17,318
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:58am Oct 9, 2014 4:58am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I would love to buy if there is a bottom out ahead. For today's PA, I think US has something for us. Either its going up or down from here, at least 5 - 10 $s. If there is a peak-out, I would like to sell some. For serious longs, I shall wait for a clean & clear Bingo bottom out on H1 (preferably with H4)
Already told about that 1206 and 1218 areas to LONG seriously
Gold Annihilation System
  • #17,319
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:03am Oct 9, 2014 5:03am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I would love to buy if there is a bottom out ahead. For today's PA, I think US has something for us. Either its going up or down from here, at least 5 - 10 $s. If there is a peak-out, I would like to sell some. For serious longs, I shall wait for a clean & clear Bingo bottom out on H1 (preferably with H4)
IMHO,

"THE" bottom is already in place

but a good tradable bottom is still pending...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #17,320
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:10am Oct 9, 2014 5:10am
Quoting Matts Micro
I have a theory of a trend change/sizable pullback in roughly 40min. Expecting new highs before it does so.
The plan failed, though still maybe a bit of a pullback on the cards. Silver broke my resistance and now is using as support, UJ pretty well went to plan, Gold was supported too well during UJ pullback (though UJ should have a further rally imo). I'm sidelines for a while until I have clearer pic.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
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