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Is gold a bubble?

  • #21
  • Feb 17, 2012 3:53am Feb 17, 2012 3:53am
Really? So people are starting to demand payments in gold? Or countries are demanding payments in gold for their oil or other resources?
  • #22
  • Feb 20, 2012 8:08am Feb 20, 2012 8:08am
a little bit of black humor my friend
btw, what is your forex trading strategy/s?
  • #23
  • Feb 20, 2012 9:19am Feb 20, 2012 9:19am
How are you guys shorting gold?
  • #24
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:35am Feb 20, 2012 10:35am
Best way to short gold would probably be using Contracts For Difference (CFDs), unless you live in the USA, then you can't.
  • #25
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:41am Feb 20, 2012 10:41am
Quoting domingo
a little bit of black humor my friend
btw, what is your forex trading strategy/s?
Opps, sorry, it was lost on me *blush*

I trade the EUR/USD using long-term trend following strategies.

But for me, I personally find the S&P 500 the simplest market to trade, it is easy on me psychologically.

Long-term trend following on the EUR/USD works but reversion to the mean is easier on the emotions. Well I find it goes well with my nature anyway. Here is a trend following trade I took on FF where my emotions eventually got the better of me http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257177 trend following works well on large currency pairs as the currency market isn't driven primarily by speculation, macro-economics and central bank policy and the likes has a far bigger effect on the FX market than speculators like us gambling does.

I've recently just started a blog listing my trades on the S&P 500 in real time if you're interested http://www.myforexdot.blogspot.com/
  • #26
  • Feb 21, 2012 6:51am Feb 21, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Davidee
Opps, sorry, it was lost on me *blush*

I trade the EUR/USD using long-term trend following strategies.

But for me, I personally find the S&P 500 the simplest market to trade, it is easy on me psychologically.

Long-term trend following on the EUR/USD works but reversion to the mean is easier on the emotions. Well I find it goes well with my nature anyway. Here is a trend following trade I took on FF where my emotions eventually got the better of me http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=257177 trend following works well on...
I totally agree on the S&P 500 - i think it is more that we all know it and thus know what to expect, whereas forex, eh, its a totally different ball game! but a profitable one, though i will check your blogs, thanks for posting
  • #27
  • Feb 21, 2012 7:56pm Feb 21, 2012 7:56pm
is there any relationships with deflation?
  • #28
  • Feb 21, 2012 9:00pm Feb 21, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting ccreative
is there any relationships with deflation?
The Chairman of the World Gold Council expects gold to "skyrocket" in the months ahead. In 2012, Gold is the asset of choice!

Gold makes the most sense when government, corporate and personal debt levels are higher than during the Great Depression.

From Europe to China, the U.S to Russia, those in "the know" are making the move, expecting gold to challenge the +2400% gains experienced during the 1970's under less severe economic conditions.

Estimated $57 Trillion is invested in Gold worldwide.
  • #29
  • Edited 10:12pm Feb 21, 2012 9:25pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting Davidee
If the US Dollar were to collapse why would gold and silver be guaranteed to hold their value?
Well, partially due to the USD being the world reserve currency..
Secondly the enormous amounts of Gold that central banks even out of the
G30 hold and use to settle debts every day. They don't have Gold cause it's worthless

Quoting Davidee
Why not stocks/shares in productive global companies that pays dividends on their profits? Why not farmland? Why is it such a given that gold simply must store value when you can't eat it and it produces no yield?
It does yield, in price. Here is a 436$ Yield:
1.23.2011 = 1300
1.23.2012 = 1736

People will barter things/ goods/ services / commodities / for GOLD.

If the $hit really hit the fan and you needed to use something to buy gas off of another person, do you think they would accept a slip that claims you own some stock in a company?

Or bar of Gold they can feel in their hand and know that it can be used to barter further.

Quoting Davidee
Gold is not money, it's an asset. Our monetary system is no longer based on gold. Even if the entire worlds monetary system were to collapse I don't see how that guarantees that the new monetary system would be based on gold.

What am I missing?
It does not need to be for Gold to hold it's value or furthermore rise. Gold has been used as means of preserving wealth and yes currency for thousands of years, a failure or "Global Bankruptcy" is precisely the type of crisis that would make things like Gold, Cattle, Land (as you said) skyrocket ridiculously in price. No one is claiming that the next monetary system to evolve is or would be based on gold.

Yet, what good would the stock slip do in this period if the company is either bankrupt itself, in debt already, or the currency the paper slip is worth is in deed worthless?

The more these same central banks print fiat currencies and problems away, the more gold will continue to rise. We are far from out of this mess.

You are also forgetting Gold is a precious metal not easily found or produced, it is a large process. There are various industrial uses for Gold
that are not realized besides jewelry, due to the cost.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT
http://www.significancemagazine.org/...Obverse(1).jpg
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...alizing_11.jpg
1 Kilo of GOLD
http://www.goldeneaglecoin.com/produ...es/kilobar.jpg
This Kilo will fit a bit heavily in your back pocket - it is about the same size as 10 grand in USD and will cost you $57,000 @ $1750 ozt appx
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #30
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:09pm Feb 21, 2012 10:09pm
I will go through these below piece by piece tomorrow.
Quoting Davidee
Hello,

I've been getting a lot of stick from gold bugs about an article I wrote on my blog saying that I thought gold was a bubble that has probably peaked. The article was Gold Bubble, if anyone is interested.

I'm not all that sure that I'm right though, but I think that gold is probably a bubble because I can't find any way of measuring it's underlying value that justifies it's price. And recently, gold seems to have decoupled from it's previous pattern of stock market falls, gold...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #31
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:36am Feb 22, 2012 12:36am
There's more Chinese with investable income then the entire American population and the chinese government is encouraging gold and silver investing.
  • #32
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:07pm Feb 23, 2012 1:07pm
Hi... what will happen with USD if Gold crash? USD up?
  • #33
  • Feb 26, 2012 6:01pm Feb 26, 2012 6:01pm
Hi Davidee, Long time no talk. I have been collecting gold for 25 years now and it was very cheap when I started. I just add a little every 6 months and after all these years I am in at an average of $400 per oz. I kinda use it as my retirement and some day if the dollar ever gets strong I can sell a little. The world curriencies are still terrible and if a major g20 country fails then look for gold to double again. Especially if it the US. China is still buying gold like a maddog. Bubble yes........Finished not yet. Regards MR D.
Jesus my Lord
  • #34
  • Feb 29, 2012 5:34am Feb 29, 2012 5:34am
Paper gold is a bubble but physical gold is not.

This is because countries currently settle their balance of trade using each others debts but this path leads to gold being used as the reference for final settlement of their trade in goods and services. Only physical gold can function in this role when it comes to pass.

All Paper is STILL a short position on gold
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2009/03...sition-on.html
  • #35
  • Feb 29, 2012 9:48am Feb 29, 2012 9:48am
Jesus, gold just fell off a cliff!
  • #36
  • Mar 3, 2012 5:15am Mar 3, 2012 5:15am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/infographic-gold-bubble
  • #37
  • Last Post: Mar 5, 2012 9:41am Mar 5, 2012 9:41am
I strongly doubt gold will be a bubble. The key increase in gold price increment lies government printing of money which led to inflated gold price. With the weak growth, the government will have a very hard time removing the liquidity from the market, inflating gold for prolong period of time.
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