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Grashid- Gold Analysis

  • #721
  • Edited May 9, 2012 4:47am May 8, 2012 11:27pm | Edited May 9, 2012 4:47am
Quoting pipsqueak3
Hello all,

As this is my first post here on FF, I want to give some thanks and congrats to Grashid on staying motivated, dedicated and innovative over the years. It looks like you have some road miles in this trade, and I would like to join you if not for just a few more before I move on to a full basket trading system.

A roadmap of my journey so far: I come from a long line of Canadian gold geologists, mining engineers, and precious metals analysts who have been and still are a cornerstone of the Canadian precious metals and mining industry....


I respect with some of your basis & input and look like you are an experiance guys in this market...

Anyway welcome on board.
  • #722
  • May 8, 2012 11:30pm May 8, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting pipraiser
Awesome trades Abang Rashid. I hope to be like you by the end of the year. Have a safe and good trip. =)
sorry missed your post..thanks a lot and enjoy your tade
  • #723
  • May 8, 2012 11:34pm May 8, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting grashid
watch for today close..below 1612 then 1583-1563 is on the card..

catch later guys..enjoy and have a nice trade

cheers

g
yesterday close below 1612 right? and now daily=weekly=monthly??

some drastic movement expected going to happen from now on....carefull for those who already miss the train...dun ever try to counter trade unless it just for fun...just watch and wait untill all this ended for a new & fresh entry position.

bb tonight if i have something to share...enjoys

g
  • #724
  • May 9, 2012 4:49am May 9, 2012 4:49am
Quoting grashid
watch for today close..below 1612 then 1583-1563 is on the card..catch later guys..enjoy and have a nice trade

cheers

g
ok guys, i lock my gold position at 1596 ( just nice for my Q3 target) and let see how 1563 act. Hit will be a bonus to me and i can take my rest earlier.
  • #725
  • May 9, 2012 1:15pm May 9, 2012 1:15pm
Quoting grashid
ok guys, i lock my gold position at 1596 ( just nice for my Q3 target) and let see how 1563 act. Hit will be a bonus to me and i can take my rest earlier.
orait my 1596 already hit and small long range~ 1583 also done..just watch my lonely EU after this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold Q3 done.JPG Size: 14 KB
  • #726
  • May 9, 2012 6:20pm May 9, 2012 6:20pm
Nice work

Despite the rally after hitting 1580, the 50 day MA was at 1659, 200 MA was at 1700.. Looks like you're trade is spot on in this gold landslide, and 1563 looks very attainable within the next couple sessions. Bearish trend due to continue, if you still see 1563, how far below do you see it going until some support actually holds up and reverts to its MA? 1548-1563 seems suitable given the current momentum, but difficult to see how that won't be the final support on this run...

Do you follow the other precious metals at all? Interesting events with XPD
  • #727
  • May 9, 2012 6:46pm May 9, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting pipsqueak3
Nice work

Despite the rally after hitting 1580, the 50 day MA was at 1659, 200 MA was at 1700.. Looks like you're trade is spot on in this gold landslide, and 1563 looks very attainable within the next couple sessions. Bearish trend due to continue, if you still see 1563, how far below do you see it going until some support actually holds up and reverts to its MA? 1548-1563 seems suitable given the current momentum, but difficult to see how that won't be the final support on this run...

Do you follow the other precious metals at all?...
agreed. In fact my number just missed USD2 from yours (1546-1563) and for 2nd phase could be a bit mess & very challanging where it should start from 1596 (where my initial locking number).

Since she already close below 1596, then let see 1563-1546 reaction towards attempting to break 1517-1500. Break this my swing for my Q4 target could be at 1486-1424-1386-1328 at the moment.

XPD? yup very very interesting

hope its help. So far all this number already posted before (maybe just different in few dollar number).

Have a nice trade mate..am resting in gold for a while and cold be in at London close tonight. See ya

p/s : waiting my 1st touchdown of my EU at 1.29 before ~1.2860/40

g
  • #728
  • May 9, 2012 6:57pm May 9, 2012 6:57pm
Hi Grashid thanks for starting the gold thread I am just getting back to trading gold recently after getting a new, better broker. Here is my chart analysis. I think gold has made near term bottom and could go higher. Waiting now for a bit more push before going long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: G2.jpg Size: 189 KB
Skype: heliosphan187
  • #729
  • May 9, 2012 7:01pm May 9, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting Dirtybrown
Hi Grashid thanks for starting the gold thread I am just getting back to trading gold recently after getting a new, better broker. Here is my chart analysis. I think gold has made near term bottom and could go higher. Waiting now for a bit more push before going long.

Attachment
to be honest to you..overall is no sign of any long yet unless a few dollar scalp when it retrace in a few range movement..my bit worry if this week close below 1596 or 1563...then ahah..you should know where it will probably go

bb later..wanna taking a few hr refreshment....zzzz

enjoy

g
  • #730
  • May 10, 2012 1:05am May 10, 2012 1:05am
Great point

I am in the process of building my 'GOD' Computer. My infrastructure is nearly complete (awaiting a Intel BOXDZ68BC LGA 1155 Intel HDMI Sata 6 USB 3 Intel Motherboard). I NEED TO DOWNLOAD 'SNAGIT' OR ANOTHER TO PROVIDE SCREESNSHOTS for you.

XPD is really testing the market tolerances:

You'll know exactly what I'm talking about:

6 Month chart
Look at descending peak line vs. ascending trough line.. aka XPD 6 Month Wedge @ 650-675. Cracked lower.

$638 is the bottom support, $605 is next target.

However, not sure if you factor any fib projections or not, but XPD is showing aggressive positions at sub 500 levels. We'll see where the markets move tomorrow morning 9:30 ET, but I bet the selling continues and you sleep steadily. Although a tad aggressive, I actually don't think sub 500 XPD is surprising. China will un-impress.

Happy Trades
  • #731
  • May 10, 2012 11:16am May 10, 2012 11:16am
Quoting pipsqueak3
Great point

I am in the process of building my 'GOD' Computer. My infrastructure is nearly complete (awaiting a Intel BOXDZ68BC LGA 1155 Intel HDMI Sata 6 USB 3 Intel Motherboard). I NEED TO DOWNLOAD 'SNAGIT' OR ANOTHER TO PROVIDE SCREESNSHOTS for you.

XPD is really testing the market tolerances:

You'll know exactly what I'm talking about:

6 Month chart
Look at descending peak line vs. ascending trough line.. aka XPD 6 Month Wedge @ 650-675. Cracked lower.

$638 is the bottom support, $605...


For me 608-600 could be potential bottom place to start to long position (perhaps within end May-mid of June) before it will playing a range between 638-650 within Q3-Q4 this year.
  • #732
  • May 10, 2012 11:21am May 10, 2012 11:21am
Quoting grashid
orait my 1596 already hit and small long range~ 1583 also done..just watch my lonely EU after this...
Look like is enough for my Q3 target plan with 1gold+1Eu position.....will take a rest and will be back on next week Tuesday at NY open..perhaps

Happy trading & enjoy your day

cheers

g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: done on my Euro as well.JPG Size: 12 KB
  • #733
  • May 13, 2012 12:02pm May 13, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting grashid
to be honest to you..overall is no sign of any long yet unless a few dollar scalp when it retrace in a few range movement..my bit worry if this week close below 1596 or 1563...then ahah..you should know where it will probably go

bb later..wanna taking a few hr refreshment....zzzz

enjoy

g
now it happen..and becarefull for any short when open market in few hr.
You guys should wait at Monday NY open-London close before take any position....could see a free nake show soon

As my humble advice wait around 1596-1606-1612 if you guys wanna have the last train of short...Sunday open - Monday close just as a consolodition in ranging pricing between 1572-1612. Close Monday below 1583 or 1563...easy fall is expected till Thu next week.

I will join if situition forcing me to go to start on my Q4 plan.....otherwise just watching with a cup of coffee...

so let see what happen

see ya

g
  • #734
  • May 14, 2012 4:35am May 14, 2012 4:35am
Quoting grashid
now it happen..and becarefull for any short when open market in few hr.
You guys should wait at Monday NY open-London close before take any position....could see a free nake show soon

As my humble advice wait around 1596-1606-1612 if you guys wanna have the last train of short...Sunday open - Monday close just as a consolodition in ranging pricing between 1572-1612. Close Monday below 1583 or 1563...easy fall is expected till Thu next week.

I will join if situition forcing me to go to start on my Q4 plan.....otherwise just watching with...
hoho..she flush to my last Q3 target 1563...first...and very very beast movement.

EU also exactly at that area...so am keep watching and no interest yet for positioning anything..

bb tonight ya guys

g
  • #735
  • May 16, 2012 9:33am May 16, 2012 9:33am
...

will close partial or all depending how today close...

will update more tomorrow in NY open...

enjoy

g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Q4 target-very bjg lot-medium term.JPG Size: 67 KB
  • #736
  • May 16, 2012 4:01pm May 16, 2012 4:01pm
hi grashid, i'm curious, how do you get your targets, do you use elliott wave? or is it just trendline breaks and pivot points? or something else?

what do you think about long gold position from here, what are your short-term targets? i think we can get to 1553 and then 1574 possibly. reason is the rally from 1526 to 1552 was A, now we're in B, and then C wave higher to 1553 and beyond.

btw really good work. i've read through the thread, and although i thought i've a pretty good system because i use a combination of tools to arrive at a good trade, but i've noticed you've better entries than me by $3-$5
Not sure how you decide to enter but whatever you're doing keep it up.

thanks.
  • #737
  • Edited 11:05pm May 16, 2012 9:18pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting nim1984
hi grashid, i'm curious, how do you get your targets, do you use elliott wave? or is it just trendline breaks and pivot points? or something else?

what do you think about long gold position from here, what are your short-term targets? i think we can get to 1553 and then 1574 possibly. reason is the rally from 1526 to 1552 was A, now we're in B, and then C wave higher to 1553 and beyond.

btw really good work. i've read through the thread, and although i thought i've a pretty good system because i use a combination of tools to arrive at a good...
I just use s/r or normal pivotarial vs TF. If you master this, you will feel a very simple in trading actually. Trendline, chanelling or what so ever just to measure or pictorial show you the trend (overall, short term or medium term depending which TF that you are referring too).

For me that entry still very ugly as i had the best entry at 1528.33 but did close it early ~ 1540.91 as during that time H1&H4 (before London Lunch) vs coming NY look a bit shaking. But is ok that only very small lot as a testing.

Agreed with you, an effective and less error in your entry will determine the succussfully in your position. Target what so ever is just base on what is your plan & strategies to execute. Otherwise bad entry will reflected in our emotion & physicological instability which reflected to our decision to be shaking in holding that position. All in all practising a sharp and less error in your entry will improve your self confident & motivation reflected to your trading result.

And now for this position look like daily was interesting for at least half of my Q4 target plan is there. Actually in Quartely i just need USD50 in gold price movement target. If it react more than that = Bonus. If less, i will add in with FOREX to top up.

So in this position, I am looking back to my old number 1563-1583-1596-1606-1612. Then will stop and wait to see how current May close before decided to stop trade or continue for 1-2 more position.

Right now, i am observe carefully 1563. Why? if you follow my previous post, you may know why. Again, I believe if you guys look back to every single in my post, you guys may seen a same number again and again no matter what trend it is right?

Hope it help

Thanks

g
  • #738
  • May 17, 2012 3:36am May 17, 2012 3:36am
thanks for the above.

if i may ask you, how did you decide to enter at 1528? what was your criteria?

i will tell you mine. I saw 1526/1522 as support, with a wave 3 bottom potentially at 1526. however, i never place limit orders to try to catch bottoms/tops. i always wait for mkt confirmation.
so i saw a morningstar candlestick formation on H4 with low at 1526.8, which signaled that selling pressure had exhausted itself at key support. Once morningstar was complete, i entered at the opening of next bar at 1539.

i always thought this was the best way to enter at potential tops/bottoms which is wait for market to confirm my bias.

but looking at your entry, I can't seem to guess how you would've entered at 1528.

thanks.
  • #739
  • May 17, 2012 4:03am May 17, 2012 4:03am
Quoting nim1984
thanks for the above.

if i may ask you, how did you decide to enter at 1528? what was your criteria?

i will tell you mine. I saw 1526/1522 as support, with a wave 3 bottom potentially at 1526. however, i never place limit orders to try to catch bottoms/tops. i always wait for mkt confirmation.
so i saw a morningstar candlestick formation on H4 with low at 1526.8, which signaled that selling pressure had exhausted itself at key support. Once morningstar was complete, i entered at the opening of next bar at 1539.

i always...
i use smaller TF for my entry point and higher TF for measuring the trend/overall trend. The rest i cant share as what i mentioned before. Sorry. If you want to know, just study & do at your own reasearch from every single number that posted.

Anyway one of the answer you already answer yourself ..

bb tonight

cheers

g
  • #740
  • May 17, 2012 9:28pm May 17, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting grashid
...

will close partial or all depending how today close...

will update more tomorrow in NY open...

enjoy

g
Ok guys..GOLD=Done at 1576.12. ~USD40+ profit from this 2 position.

1 cover all the losses in all FOREX pair = closed. Look weird with this movement vs USDX vs some main FOREX pair?? (reason why early on i wont trade or touch FOREX, but is ok no harm to try )

1 cover more than 50% from my Q4 plan target.

Overall met ~USD26 (>50% from my Q4 target)....and since today is friday, I am off and will be back next week Monday.

Expected will be a crazy day today especially in London Open till London close.

Enjoy your trade guys

cheers

g
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