Macroeconomic Analysis

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Some notes/charts about US Capacity of Utilization.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous charts; previous sept.2011-study.

In the first chart there are two indicators of US Capacity of Utilization: Total Industry; Manifacturing (NAICS).
The second chart is the Total Industry only, with some main trend-lines; the graphical elements are the followings:
-) lows of 2009 are well below the previous lows of curve in the decade '80 !!!
-) the global array of curve is descending;
-) the main ascending line (lows of '80 & 2003) was broken during the SellOff 2008;
-) actual values are well below the previous tops of 2006/2007, and inside the descending white rectangle.
In the chart III there is the r-spread between Total Industry vs. Manifacturing (NAICS), an indicator about contrarian to main trend of US economy. The graphical elements are the followings:
-) The tops of 2009 is well above the previous tops of decade '80 (bad sign in long-term ???);
-) The SellOff of curve after the top of 2009, has pushed prices toward the lows of decade '90, in full-test inside an important set-up area (pink marked).
Curve above this pink set-up, is a possible sign of financial stress increase; curve below this pink set-up, is a possible sign of new bullish leg.




Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
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https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=48832

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Some notes/charts about US Inventory To Sales Ratio Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-13

In this post there are some notes about Inventory To Sales Ratio Indicator fot US total business, manifacturers and retailers.
The Inventory To Sales Ratio measures the percentage of Inventories the company/nation currently has on hand to support the current amount of Net Sales.
An increasing ratio is generally a negative sign (inventory is growing more rapidly than sales and/or sales are dropping and/or cash flow problems: financial stress ???).
In the first chart there is the simple ratio.
The global array of curve is very descendent (positive for underlyings) until to 2005/2006 (first blue-square).
After this low, the curve shows an impressive swing (top 2006, low 2007/2008, SkyRocket 2008/2009), with a final top well above the previous double tops 1998/2002.
In this swing-phase, the format ''Changes from year ago'' (in phase vs. underlyings) shows an impressive volatility, from the top to the bottom of the curve in less than 1 year, well above & below of the normal zone of indicator variation in this format.
The actual phase (simple ratio format) shows two lows about in-line (blue squares) vs. previous lows of 2005/2006.
Price above the blue descending line (see orange-area), is a possible sign of Inventory/Sales stress-start; only with curve well above the red ascending line there will be the start of a new important stress phase for this indicator.
With curve below the triple lows, there will be a new possible phase of stress decrease of this indicator (positive structural sign for underlyings).
The global array of ratio-curve for Manifacturers is very similar to ''Total Business'' curve until to 2009, but the actual key-lows now are ascending (stress inside manifacture secor ???). Alert on the evolution of curve inside the white rectangle.
The retailers curve shows a price-evolution more positive, with a continuation-bear of indicator well below the previous lows of 2005/2006.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

The Russia was accepted into WTO. When China was accepted the event made a huge impact on market durring 2001 and 2007. How big of an impact do you think this will be?

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Some notes/charts about US Industrial Production Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous charts: A; B; C; D.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16

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Some notes/charts about US Industrial Production Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous charts: A; B; C; D.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-16,2012-07-16

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-16

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about US Industrial Production Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous charts: A; B; C; D.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-16
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-16

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about US Industrial Production Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous charts: A; B; C; D.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣


http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-17
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...&nd=2007-12-01
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-07-17

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Some notes/charts about US Bonds & Securities Foreign Buying.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some charts about the mid-term curves of US securities, according to geographical allocation of foreign buying.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about US Industrial Production Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Curves of US Industrial Production: General Index -- Consumer Goods & Materials -- Manufacturing & Mining -- Diffusion Indexes.

The US Industrial Production spreads Manufacturing vs. General Index, in r-spread & d-spread format (about in-phase vs. the main trend of underlyings), shows the following graphical elements:
-) lows of 2008/2009 well below the previous 2002/2003 lows (first event from 1970 about);
-) 4 ascending waves (wave n.III divided in 5 sub-waves) for r-spread, and 5 for d-spread (see blue markers); ascending structure in exhaustion ???

The US Industrial Production spreads Consumer Goods vs. Durable Consumer Goods, in r & d spreads for ''Index'' and in d-spread for ''changes 1y ago'' & ''% changes 1y ago'' (about contrarian vs. the main trend of underlyings), shows the following graphical elements:
-) the r-spread of index shows an hard bearish array (positive vs. underlyings), with a wonder recent base of lows (orange rectangle);
-) the d-spread of index shows the top of 2008/2009 (white rectangles) as a Pyroclastic top (historical financial crisis);
-) the d-spread of ''changes 1y ago'' & ''% of changes 1y ago'', shows very well the importance of actual top 2008/2009 (white rectangles) and the historical importance of base of lows (orange rectangles).

The US Industrial Production Diffusion Index d-spreads (1 vs. 6 mo. & 3 vs. 6 mo. in the first double curve; mixed 1, 3, 6 mo. d-spread for the second mono-curve; curves about contrarian vs. the main trend of underlyings), shows the following graphical elements:
-) the actual top 2008/2009 is confirmed as historically important (red cirlces);
-) actual values are compatible with a top of underlyings (see orange rectangles);
-) the mono-curve shows an important reaction from the last (deep) low.

These indicators shows a possible top formation inside US financial market for next months.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about Italian CDS Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there are two benchmarks for Italian CDS Indicators (about contrarian to main tren of underlyings, particularly Italian stocks-benchmarks): 5y & 10y.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
-) ascending line from 2011-lows is a key line for the hard bullish array of indicators; below this line there will be an important decrease of financial stress;
-) target of dark-red cup 2009-2010 is an important level for financial stress increase (curve up) or decrease (curve down);
-) 2010/2009 tops is a key horizontal zone for a second step in stress decrease.

These indicators shows hard financial stress inside Italian financial market, as we can see from the bullish trend in action.
But it is very important the behavioural divergence between the two main (2011/2012) tops of CDS curves vs. the descending-array of 2011/2012 lows of Italian stocks-benchmarks.
CDS indicators or the FTSE/Mib Index has an anticipatory behaviour ???


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=F...n-US&region=US

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Some notes/charts about NYSE Bullish % Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


This breadth indicator (in phase vs. underlyings) shows some interesting divergences about 2009-2012 key levels vs. TMW/ISI/IYY-ETF.
Follows these differences.

http://www.investorsintelligence.com...&w=1000&h=1000
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about NYSE Personal Summation Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous feb.2011 study.

In this post there are some personal indicators or H.I. (abount in phase vs. US stocks-market; notes below) of NYSE Summation Index, obtained with spread vs.:
Volatility Indicator (1 mo.) on S&P500; ARM Indicator on NYSE; Total Put/Call on S&P500; Treasury - €uro US Dollar (or TED-spread 3mo.).
With these spread-indicators or H.I. there is a (simple) mix of breadth, options & treasury data.
The chart-format is: linear & daily frame, long-term ema-format.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
1) lows of 2002/2003 > lows of 2008/2009 (negative structural sign);
2) tops of 2010 > tops of 2011 & 2012 (negative local sign);
3) lows 2010 & 2011 in descending-array (negative local sign), with a full-test of 0-line in 2011.

A continuation-bear below the main descending line from the 2007-top, is a very dangerous sign (stress accumulation).
Only with NYSE H.I. above these main descending lines (see pink-squares), there will be an important decrease of financial stress inside US stocks-market.
With curves of NYSE H.I. below zero-line there will be a great increase of financial stress; but only below the lows of 2011, there will be an uncontrollable increase in financial stress.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

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Some notes/charts about QQQ.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous may.2012 short-term study.

QQQ in candles & daily format has an archipelago-like structure (see circles & square).
In pink there is a key level from priceXvolume data.
Follows the key elements of the dark-gray area (top & low), for a possible future evolution (short-term).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about Italian Lire & Deut.Mark.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two charts about two old currency crosses, Italian Lire to US$ & Deut.Mark to US$.
In the chart III there is the ratio (or r-spread) between Italian Lire to US$ vs. Deut.Mark to US$, in order to obtain a curve of Italian Lire to Deut.Mark.
In the chart IV there is the r-spread between FTSE/Mib vs. German DAX.
With rectangles there are some important phases, which are useful for qualitative comparisons.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous Nd/Biotech. study of dec.2011.

In this post there are some notes about the strength of Nd/Composite & Nd/Biotech.
The charts are in weekly & linear frames, and in two formats:
r-spread Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.;
Mansfield strength Nd/Composite vs. Nd/Biotech.

The main graphical elements are:
-) From chart I we can see a monster-SkyRocket (strength Nd/Comp. > Nd/Biot.) from 1995 and in particular from 1998, with a key-top in 2000, and then a giant lateral phase between an imperfect double tops (2002/2007) vs. double lows (2011/2009).
-) Both Nd/Comp. and Nd/Biot. shows an ascending-array of tops 2007-2011/2012, but the r-spread (chart I) shows a descending pattern, with values well below the 2003 lows of r-spread !!! Mansfield-format is in descending-array from 2010 !!!
-) Curve of chart I is in structural (see pink-markers) descending array with values below Multiple 10mo. average (yellow-lines as follows: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma); Mansfield-curve is below 0-line (see pink-lines); when these two signs appear, the history of curves shows a probable Nd/Biot. SkyRocket and a start of bear on Nd/Comp.

Curve of r-spread (chart I) below (consistently & persistently) the base of giant lateral phase, can cause a probable SkyRocket of strength of Nd/Biot. vs. Nd/Comp., with a possible SellOff-start on Nd/Comp. Follows also the Mansfield curve behaviour on basal ascending-line.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about some breadth indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there are some notes about the monthly structure (linear & ema-format; FreeStockChart source) of some breadth indicators as follows.

-) High & Low logic Ind. (previous 2011-study; about in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market).
*This indicator is based on new highs, new lows, and the total number of issues traded.
*The ascending-array of lows 2009/2012 is in phase vs. underlyings.
*The 2011/2012 gray-cup is in full ascending test of the key binary-levels.
*There is a recognizable divergence between tops 2010 & 2011/2012 vs. tops of underlying !!!
The gray-cup 2011/2012 is the local GraphicalƉetonator of the chart structure.
Curve above the key binary-levels has a target-value above 1989-top, with a new bullish (giant ???) leg for underlyings.
Curve in continuation-bear below this key binary-levels, is dangerous for a start of a bearish phase on underlyings (distribution ???).

-) Zweig Breandth Indicator (previous 2011-study; about in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market).
This indicator (in percentage-format) is based on 10-day moving average of the number of advancing issues, the number of advancing issues, and the number of declining issues.
* Tops 2009/2010/2011 (in part) are in descending-array, in divergence vs. underlying, but at end of 2011 there is a giant top about in-line with historical tops of 1991, 1997 & 2003 !!!
* Prices, after two full test of the yellow key binary-lines (first buy zone for underlyings), now is well above both the mid-line or 50-level, and the Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
The post 2011-top curve structure will be similar to previous key-tops evolution (post-2003; post-1997; post-1991) ???
A continuation-bull of indicator with a top below the 2011, but inside the upper triple horizontal lines, is a possible sign of exhaustion of actual bull-market.
A price-evolution like to phases post-2003 or post-1997, may result in a continuation-bull of underlyings, with an important decrease in 2013 ???

-) Absolute Breadth Indicator (previous 2011-study; about contrarian vs. U.S. stocks-market)
This indicator (in simple algorithm-format of the source) is based on the absolute value of the advances minus declines on the NYSE (last 5 days), and the total number of NYSE stocks.
*The long-term curve shows an ascending array with primary and secondary bottoms on blue binary-lines.
*The yellow horizontal binary is a key-zone where there are some main market-reversals (see in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012), and now the curve is above this zone (negative sign), and in full ascending test of the Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
*Moreover there are some divergences in post-2008 tops 6 lows of indicator vs. lows & tops of underlyings (negative sign).
A continuation-bull above the Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma), and above the binary 43-48 is very dangerous for the stability of underlyings.

-) Cumulative 4week New High/New Low (about in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market).
This indicator is based on the number of issues at new highs, and the number of issues at new lows (4-week period).
*The trend of this indicator is totally bullish.
*The gray-cup 2007/2009 obtained the target, and now shows some signs of ema-knotting (blue circles), out from the main ascending rectangle.
The legs out of rectangle is an alert sign ???

-) Advance/Decline Line (about in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market).
This indicator is based on the (only NYSE/Nasdaq common stocks) spread between percentage of advancing vs. declining stocks.
*The trend of the NYSE indicator is totally bullish.
*The gray-cup 2007/2009 shows a target at 11450 pts.
*Actual curve behaviour shows some signs of ema-knotting (blue circles), with double touch on upper-line.
The double touch is an alert sign ??? We are in topping formation (about 400 pts from target) ???
*The trend of the Nd indicator is totally bullish, with an important structural sign of continuation-bull (see turquoise marker).
*The gray-cup 2007/2009 shows a target a little below the historical top of curve.
*Actual curve behaviour shows an ema-knotting, with double touch on a key binary-levels (see square markers).
The double touch is an alert sign ???
Above the key binary-lines the indicator goes at target.
NYSE & Nd. Ad.-Dec. indicators for common stocks shows a possible continuation-bull.

-) Bolton-Tremblay Indicator (about in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market).
This indicator is based on the cumulative advance-decline indicator and the number of unchanged issues with a simple algorithm.
*The trend of this indicator is totally bullish.
*The gray-cup 2007/2009 obtained the target, and now shows some signs of ema-knotting (blue circles), well above the main ascending rectangle.
The legs out of rectangle is an alert sign ???


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about some breadth indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


In this post there are some notes about the monthly structure (linear & ema-format; FreeStockChart source) of the NYSE Cumulative Volume Indicator, based on the spread between volume of advancing issues vs. declining issues (Indicator about in phase vs. underlyings).
The main graphical elements are:
* Actual values below the Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
* Negative divergences for 2010/2011 lows, between indicator vs. underlyings, and negative divergences for 2011/2012 tops, between indicator vs. underlyings.
*) Curve of indicator above the binary (yellows) levels from 1998/1999 (an important area for reversals).
A continuation-bear of this indicator below Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma) is a dangerous sign for a possible test on the yellow binary lines (local or secondary bear for underlyings ???). Below the binary-lines there is an high probability of important bear-leg for underlyings.
With indicator above the 2007 top, there will be an high probability of a new & important bull-leg for underlyings.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Social Network Stocks & Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous SocialNetwork post.

In this post there is a comparative chart (at 54 trading days) between some global stocks-benchmarks vs. a social network benchmark (SOCL).
There is also a comparative performance chart (in two formats; 54 t.d.), of some social network stocks.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about NYSE McClellan Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous studies: long-term curves -- jun.2010 -- feb.2011 -- aug.2011.

In this post there are some charts about the NYSE McClellan Ind. (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings; charts A1, A2, A3).
There are also 4 charts (B1, B2, B3, B4) about some personal indicators (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings and with important anticipatory behaviours), called Hedge-Indicators or r-spreads (see notes below), involving NYSE McClellan Indicator vs.: CBOE S&P500 Put vs. Call ratio; Volatility Indicator on S&P500 (1mo.); NYSE ARM Indicator; spread between 3mo. US Treasury yield vs. Euro-Dollar Ind. (or TED spread).
The main graphical elements are the followings.
On the weekly McClellan (A1) we can see the indicator below the Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma), and below the 0-line; moreover the key-lows are in descending-array, contrarian to underlyings.
On monthly chart (A2) we can see the important descending structure of recent tops, with the structural double sell-signs according to Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma) and 0-line.
On the ratio adjusted format (A3) we can see the negative divergences in indicator behaviour vs. underlyings from 2008; but there are not the sell-signs from ema & 0-line.
The r-spread charts (B1-4) shows some important divergences on tops & lows (see circled areas) vs. underlyings, but there are not sell-signs from ema behaviour (H.I. > 0).
From these charts we can see a lot of possible bearish signs (not signals but signs only) in mid-long term on underlyings.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about NYSE High & Low Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous studies: feb.2011 -- aug.2011.

In this post there are some charts about the NYSE High & Low Indicators as follows.
A) r-Spread between NYSE new highs vs. new lows (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings).
The morphology of indicator in the phase 2009/2012 is like to 2003/2006, as we can see from the divergences on the tops (red squares), and from lows (red arcs). Actual ema set-up shows a local bullish signal with curve > Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma). If the curve evolution post-2009 will be completed as the phase 2003/2007, in the the red circled '?' there will be about the next top ???
B) d-Spread between NYSE new highs vs. new lows (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings).
Also this indicator shows important divergences on tops (red squares) and a monster lows about 2008/2009. Actual ema knot shows a local bullish signal, but playing under the divergence from 2010.
C) r-Spread between NYSE new highs vs. new lows (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings).
The global structure or morphology of this curve shows a complete and dangerous bearish-array. Local double-lows (red-circle) is a preliminar sign for the start of new bullish leg, but now playing under white-ema and also playing under the divergence from 2010.
D) r-Spread between NYSE 26 weeks new highs vs. new lows (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings).
This indicator shows the top divergences as in the chart 'A', and the local bullish signal with curve > Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma).
E) r-Spread between NYSE 52 weeks new lows vs. new highs (about 'contrarian' vs. underlyings).
F) r-Spread between NYSE 52 weeks new highs vs. new lows (about 'in-phase' vs. underlyings).
In these two curves there are some important negative divergences vs. underlyings, as shows by red squares.

These indicators shows local (2012) bullish signals, but there are some structural divergences (see tops) that should not be neglected.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣