Attachments: Macroeconomic Analysis

Macroeconomic Analysis

#221
Sep 24, 2011 3:40am Sep 24, 2011 3:40am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Global Stocks Indexes.

In this post there is an interesting structural (theoretical) analogy inside D.J. Transportation Ind.
Follows this analogy !!!

Possible underlying general stocks-benchmarks:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☻/ ۞ Alert on MacroData ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ Bund@Bund@-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0229xyyy.jpg
Size: 507 KB

#222
Sep 29, 2011 4:17am Sep 29, 2011 4:17am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Financial Stress Indicators.

In this post there are some notes about a set of yield r-spreads between sub-annual US T-Bonds.
Previous study: n.20; n.21; n.22; n.23; n.24; n.26; n.27; n.30; n.35; n.36; n.37; n.221; n.175.
These indicators (= curves = hedge.indicators) have an about contrarian behaviour vs. main trend of the possible underlying stocks-benchmarks (but from 2008 SLS crisis their behaviours has become super-volatile):
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The curves presented are obtained by placing on the numerator the yield with longer duration, gaining an indicator in contrarian-array to the main trend of the stocks-market.
A decrease of both components may still determine an increase of value, because the component changes may have very different velocity (= slope).
A decline indicates loss of strength in the numerator vs. denominator; a rise indicates an increase in strength of the numerator vs. denominator.
This study or method is not an operational analysis, but provides a key to study the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore, it is more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and comparison with previous bottom / top levels, instead dwelling on the scale of absolute values (prices).
The charts are in 10base-log. and ema-format (prices replaced exp.mov.aver.).
In the white charts there are the r-spreads about the 6mo & 3mo, but in the black charts there are the r-spreads about the 12mo or 1y.

From the white charts we can see the following elements:
▌The key level is 2004-top. The decrease of curves in 2009/2010 intercept this level but do not break. Is this (2009/2010) a recovery-only sign after 2008 melt down of markets ???
▌Also in the 1y curves the main set-up is the pink-markers; above this level there will be an important increase of financial stress inside markets.
▌There is an hard divergence in indicators low (IV quarter 2010) vs. underlyings top (2011). Is this a sign of future continuation of primary-bear ???
▌In the 6mo charts we can see a giant cup in progress (gray area). The bullish-validation can cause a Melt Down in financial markets ??? Value of 6mo curves below 2009-lows (also for 3mo curve) can cause a big decrease of financial stress (big bull-trend in stocks-market ???).
▌The general structure of curves shows an ascending-array (primary bearish-pressures in actions ???).

From the black charts we can see the following elements:
▌The key level is 2004-top. The decrease of curves in 2009/2010 shows only a ''failure-breaks'' of this level. Is this (2009/2010) a recovery-only sign after 2008 melt down of markets ???
▌The main set-up of the 6mo curves is the pink-markers (see also pink-marker on 3mo curve); below this level there will be an important decrease of financial stress inside markets. For 3mo curves the main level is the 2009-lows (blue-marker).
▌There is an hard divergence in indicators low (IV quarter 2010) vs. underlyings top (2011). Is this a sign of future continuation of primary-bear ???
▌In the 1y charts we can see a giant cup in progress (gray area). The bullish-validation can cause a Melt Down in financial markets ??? Value of curves well below 2009-lows (also for 3mo curve) can cause a big decrease of financial stress (big bull-trend in stocks-market ???).
▌The general structure of curves shows an ascending-array (primary bearish-pressures in actions ???).

Final notes about main curves (*).
Alert both on the key-levels signaled above and to 2011 top > 2010 top (negative sign for stocks in mid-term).

☻/ ۞ Alert on Yield Indicators ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ Bund@Bund@-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Sub-annual r-spreads: 1y frame
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-27_2011-09-27
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-27_2011-09-27
Sub-annual r-spreads: complete charts

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg
Size: 605 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg
Size: 309 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 1.1 MB

#223
Edited 5:49am Sep 29, 2011 5:48am | Edited 5:49am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some charts about Fx Volatility Indicators.

See also CBOE Volatility Indicators FXE (ETF €-Index):
❣ candles-format;
❣ ema-format.

☻/ ۞ Alert on Fx-Volatility Indicators ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ Bund@Bund@-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg
Size: 750 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg
Size: 719 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 766 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg
Size: 799 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 215 KB

#224
Oct 2, 2011 4:46pm Oct 2, 2011 4:46pm

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

☢

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Uranium benchmarks.

In this post there are some notes about a set of Uranium benchmarks, both for commodity and for stocks-indexes.
For possible underlying general stocks-benchmarks see the followings:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Uranium U3☢8
The first Uranium bull-trend has started during the first oil crisis ('70), reaching a top level of 45$, as for Au and other precious commodity [ Ag Pd Pt ].
U next price-action was very similar to Au, a lengthy process of re-absorption of the excesses of the '70s, with prices back to a minimum of 5-6 $ in 1993-1995 and 2001.
At the beginning of the century (see Au) uranium undergoes a major change in trend, in homology to WTI, with an incredible 27X until to 2007-top.
Almost coinciding with the beginning of the financial/economic collapse, the U-decline begins, with a loss, in a few quarters, of about 70% from the 2007-top.
This fall stops at the beginning of the second quarter of 2009, about 2 months later than WTI, forming an imperfect double-low with Oct.2008, in intercept of '80-tops, similar to Au.
A second, multiple, phases of lows for U there is in IV quarter of 2009 and I & II quarters 2010.
This area of lows (2008/2009/2010) causes a violent rise of Uranium, with a local top of 75 $ in the I quarter of 2011 (as low of IV quarter 2007).
The ascending rectangle from lows 2000/2003 is under stress, and the red descending-lines from tops causes hard pressure on U.
Key structural levels for mid-long term on U3O8 are the two horizontal lines 40/80 $ (gray-area). Only prices above or below this gray-area can cause a real turn of the actual lateral array of U-prices.
The structural price of this benchmark is bearish or lateral-bearish; only price above the white rectangle can break this status; prices below '80 tops will cause a probable MeltDown of 'nrg-c☢mmodity.

Uranium UF6
This benchmark (very important for reactors) has the same graphical structure of previous, with prices ~2.6/2.7X of U-oxide.
The key structural level are marked in gray.

Uranium SWU
The SWU benchmark (see: link n.1; link n.2) shows an hard bullish-trend from 2000 until to 2009, with about 3 waves.
Now the prices are in descending-array inside a little red-channel (bearish leg, n.4 ???).
SWU benchmark go in a bearish status only with prices below 2002/2003 top-levels (max extension of n.4).
The set-up orange-area is the main structural pivot of the mid-term chart.

Au vs. U spread
This spread is about contrarian to main trend of stocks-benchmarks.
The main graphical pattern are as follows.
☢ The main descending rectangle has been broken in 2009; it has been pull-back tested in 2010, and now the prices are in sky-rocket phase, with top in aug.2011 at same 2001 top-level. The target of this break is the ''out-chart'' descending orange-line (see h-dx dotted line); this is a negative sign for underlying general stocks-benchmarks.
☢ There are two giant cups: a) dark-gray, in bullish-status, with target at 810 spread pts.; b) gray (contained the previous cup) in neck-test (= aug.2011 & 2001 tops) with a price-space of 480 spread pts. (target = 1030 pt. if prices go well above the neck); these are negative signs for underlying general stocks-benchmarks.
☢ There is a little 2010/2011 cup (neck and apex marked with green lines), in bullish-status, with non completed target (upper green horizontal marker); now the price of indicator is in violent short-term turn on the neck; this is a negative sign for underlying general stocks-benchmarks.
☢ Prices of spread are well above top of 2010; this is a negative sign for underlying general stocks-benchmarks.
The 2010/2011 little cup is the key element of the spread. Value above this cup, push the spread (financial stress increase) at target of main rectangle, and then at target of dark-gray cup (810 pts.). Finally, the giant gray-cup will come into bullish-status. Value below this cup (financial stress decrease), push the spread on the orange set-up area, an hard resistence of the spread. Only below this orange set-up area there will be an important decrese of financial stress and a new probable big bull-leg for underlying stocks-market.

U stocks-benchmarks & funds
These benchmarks (and thei ETF) shows important bearish signs as:
☢ preliminar breaks of july 2010 lows (exc.: U.to);
☢ prices well below lows of I-third/2008;
☢ breaks of main ascending rectangle (started in 2008/2009);
☢ ETF or Fund wave structures 2009/2011 (red-markers) ascending but corrective (?).
☢ The Tickerspy U-Portfolio (stocks; chart) shows an hard bearish-array vs. S&P500.
☢ Some main U-stocks shows an hard bearish-array.

Notes on financial-U status
Both the commodity benchmarks (exc. SWU) and the U-stocks benchmarks show important multiframes bearish-array.
If this status does not stop, there may be series of mini-collapses (= mini sell-off) in the sector.

R.T. price of U3O8 --- Uranium price definitions.
Previous U3O8 chart; previous UF6 chart; previous SWU chart.
Previous charts: GUR.to (info); NLR (site; chart); NUCL (site; chart); PKN (site); U.to (info); chart); URA (site); URAX (site; chart); WNAI (site; chart).

☻/ ۞ Alert on U ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Ur@Ur@-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg
Size: 1.2 MB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg
Size: 861 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 1.0 MB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg
Size: 821 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 865 KB

#225
Edited 8:50am Oct 7, 2011 8:48am | Edited 8:50am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

☢

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Nat.Gas.
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=NG&p=w1&s=m
The 'nrg'commodity intercept (descending test) an important ascending-line (previous chart) from 2009 lows.
A line break, may cause an hard sell-off of NatGas toward 3.0/2.75 $.
Price below 2009-lows, may cause a giant sell-off.

☻/ ۞ Alert on NG ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' UNG@UNG@-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0233.jpg
Size: 822 KB

#226
Oct 8, 2011 4:22am Oct 8, 2011 4:22am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

☢

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about IFO Indicators

In this post there are some notes about a set of IFO Indicators about the economic conditions of macr-areas.
For possible underlying general stocks-benchmarks see the followings:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The following graphical elements are:
-) The short term curves are in bearish-array;
-) The 2010-lows are > of 2011 recent-lows (see *);
-) N.America and W.Europe are below the average value (yellow horizontal line);
-) World and €-Area are in full descending test of average value (yellow horizontal line);
-) The spread between present-curve vs. 6mo.-curve for World is 0 about but is positive for €-Area (negative for economy).

All these elements are negative for a global evaluation of economy and financial markets, on mid-long term.

☻/ ۞ IFO Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' IfoIfo-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0234.jpg
Size: 1.1 MB

#227
Oct 9, 2011 1:30pm Oct 9, 2011 1:30pm

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about U$/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads.

In this post there are some yield-spreads between U$ vs. Deut. Gov.Bonds, in order to evaluates the risk of two countries.
The general underlying benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Red-markers (squares) are the financial phases with high levels of crisis, from 2007.

CDS curves of US & Deut..
Gov.Bond 2y yield spread U$ vs. Deut.
Previous U$ vs. Deut. Gov.Bond 2,5,10,30 y, yield spreads.
BOND YIELDS
U$ gov.BOND 2Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 2Y yield
U$ gov.BOND 5Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 5Y yield
U$ gov.BOND 10Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 10Y yield
U$ gov.BOND 30Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 30Y yield
US/DEUT. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads: 1y frames
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

☻/ ۞ Alert on Stress ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' K€$☂

€∰∰-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

US/DEUT. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads: 5y frames

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0235.jpg
Size: 724 KB

#228
Oct 9, 2011 4:24pm Oct 9, 2011 4:24pm

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

US/DEUT. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads: 5y frames

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0235B.jpg
Size: 755 KB

#229
Edited 6:43am Oct 13, 2011 6:24am | Edited 6:43am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about CBOE Put Call spreads.

In this post there are some spreads about Put vs. Call Indicators from CBOE options.
The general underlying benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
See also the following CBOE option-indicators: B&WS&P500 -- B&WNd/100 -- B&WDJIA -- B&WR-2k -- B&W-putsell -- B&W-OotM.

█ THE total CBOE Put/Call r-spread indicator (contrarian to stocks main trend; chart in ema-format and linear-weekly; Previous CBOE P/C r-spread chart), shows the following graphical elements:
▌global curve array of main trend in bullish status from 1997 (see yellow ascending-lines marked with square);
▌secondary trend in bearish-array from 2007 (see yellow descending-lines, dotted and not-dotted) but with bullish break and turn of secondary trend, in 2011;
▌curve above 1-line (put well above call options);
▌top of curve in 2010 < 2011-top;
▌intra-yearly divergence between P/C 2011 lows (descending) vs. underlyings 2011 tops (ascending);
▌tops of 2007/2008 vs. 2011, shows a possible neck (gray band) of a giant graphical contest in progress, between two imperfect tops vs. bullish-cup.
All the signs from this chart have a negative impact on stocks-market, in mid-long term trend.
The giant graphical contest is a long-term key element for the future trend of this indicator.
A bullish validation of this graphical contest is an horrible sign for stocks-market.
A bearish validation of this graphical contest is a sign for a great stress-decrease inside stocks-market. A first step toward this evolution is the bearish break of upper limit of descending rectangle (now at 1.24/1.22); a second and pivotal-step there will be with value below 1-line.
█ The smoothed total CBOE Put/Call indicator (chart in long term ema-format and linear-daily) shows the following graphical elements:
▌global curve array of main trend in confirmed bullish status from 2000 (see two yellow ascending-rectangles: two slopes);
▌secondary trend in bearish-array from 2008 (see yellow descending-lines), but with bullish break and turn of secondary trend, in 2011;
▌red and blue curves well above 1-line (put well above call options);
▌top of red and blue curves in 2010 < 2011-top, and historical top of these curves in 2011 (not for white) !!!
▌intra-yearly divergence between P/C 2011 lows (descending) vs. underlyings 2011 tops (ascending);
▌tops of 2007/2008 vs. 2011, shows a possible double white-neck of a giant bullish-cup (gray B-area), preliminary validated in bullish-status;
▌ema-array in bullish status;
▌The bearish evolution 2009/2011 of the curves, did not broke (persistently and consistently) the tops of 1998, 2001 and 2003 (a recovery only ???);
▌previous bullish 'A'-cup (1998/2002) with incomplete target and well above 2007/2008 tops !!!
All the signs from this chart have a negative impact on stocks-market, in long term trend.
The giant 'B'-cup is a long-term key element for the future trend of this indicator.
A confirmed bullish validation of this structure, is an horrible sign for stocks-market.
A failure of this structure, is a sign for a great stress-decrease inside stocks-market. A first step toward this evolution is the bearish break of double white-neck; a second and pivotal-step there will be with value below 1-line.

█ There are also 3 personal indicators about the CBOE Put / Call spread.
In the A.1 chart there is the r-spread between Total CBOE P/C vs. U$/T-Bond yield 1mo. (contrarian to stocks main trend; chart in long term ema-format and 10base-log. daily).
The graphical signs of this double curves (in hard bullish-array) are very negative for stocks-market in mid-long term, with a topping bullish-cup validated in bullish-status, and well above previous 2007/2009 tops !!!
Only below the gray-neck there will be a great stress-decrease in stocks-market.
In the A.2 and A.3 charts there are two internal r-spread between Total CBOE P/C: vs. Indexes-only options (A.2-chart); vs. Equity-only options (A.3-chart) (about contrarian to stocks main trend; chart in long term ema-format and 10base-log. daily).
These two personal indicators shows and confirm (see global curves array and theoretical grahical structures) the negative structure of stocks-market in mid-long term.

█ The retail P/C indicator (contrarian to underlyings. Previous Retail P/C chart) is the r-spread between put transactions vs. call transation for small traders only (under 11 contracts at a time). This curve shows a local graphical contest in action, between multiple tops vs. bullish-H&S (gray area of 2011.
A bullish validation of this local contest is negative for stocks-market.
A bearish validation of this local contest is positive (stress-decrease) for stocks-market.

█ The large P/C indicator (contrarian to underlyings. Previous Large P/C chart) is the r-spread between put transactions vs. call transation for small traders only (above 50 contracts at a time). This curve shows ascending-array in short term, and values above 2010-tops (negative signs for stocks). Moreover the bearish-rectangle (gray-area from 2008) has been broken in 2011 (negative sign for stocks), with actual value above 2009 tops !!!

█ O.S.I. indicator (in phase vs. underlyings) is the r-spread between the total bullish transactions vs. total bearish transactions in options.
The curve has broken the ascending main channel in 2011, and now is in a short-mid term bear trend (see descending channel).
Structural key element for an up-turn, is the bullish break of actual descending rectangle.

☻/ ۞ CPC & Cip&Ciop Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' PUT-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 1.3 MB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg
Size: 1.0 MB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 696 KB

#230
Oct 17, 2011 1:52am Oct 17, 2011 1:52am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about sentiment indicators.

In this post there are some notes about sentiment indicators. Possible underlying stocks-benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The ABC CCI based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, US economy and the buying status (indicator type: coincident; format: telephone interviews; sample: about 1,000 randomly selected adults; frame: previous 4-weeks; error-margin: +/-3%; scale: +100/-100).
The main graphical elements of this curve (in phase vs. underlying and with anticipatory behaviour) are as follows:
-) the main trend of this curve was bullish until to IV 2007-quarter; with bearish-break of ascending mega-rectangle, the status of indicator turns in secondary bearish;
-) a first increase of bearish-array there was at the break of 2003-lows; a second increase there was at the break of previous 1992-lows, with a complete turn in bearish status (primary and secondary);
-) according to this indicator, the stocks bullish-phase 2003/2007 is a recovery-only phase, with test of 0-line and re-turn in bearish side;
-) the actual recovery phase is very weak and lateral (see little rectangle 2008/2011).
First step for a real bullish turn of the curve, only with prices above 2008/2011 rectangle; second and key-step with prices above (bull-break) descending-rectangle from 1999/2000 top.
Curve below the 2008/2011 rectangle is a very negative sign for stocks-market.

The Hulbert sentiment indexes for Stocks, Gov.Bonds and Au, tracks the performance of hundreds of investment newsletters.
This set of indicators shows important anticipatory behaviours (see square markers, blues and reds).
The S&P500 sub-index shows an important set-up bearish: curve below pink-dotted line; curve below ascending line on main (2008/2010) lows; new lows in october 2011, confirming stocks price-action.
The trend of 2011 is in confirmed bear ???
Nd sub-index shows 2-lows 2009/2010 in divergence vs. underlyings, and a continuation-bear in 2011, toward pink-dotted line.
The trend of 2011 is in confirmed bear ???
Gov.Bond sub-index is in a corrective phase (secondary bear), and only below mid-2011 lows there will be an important bearish-turn in this curve.
Au sub-index shows very lower value, but underlying Au-future does not show important bear-signal from price-action.
Au is ready for a new bull-leg if indicator turns well above 0-line; but there will be an Au sell-off if indicator goes well below 0-line.

The Advisor & Investor Model (AIM) is a sincretic financial survey model derived from Investor's Intelligence Indicator, A.A.I.I., Market Vane Indicator, Consensus Sentiment Indicator.
This indicator shows all signs in bearish-status:
curve below pink-dotted line and below continuous blue-line;
value below ascending line from 2009/2010 lows;
value well below 0.5/0.4 area;
now, curve in continuation bear and below 2010-low.
A recovery leg of this indicator is probable in autumn ??? Moreover, the structural array of this indicator shows primary bearish trend in action.

☻/ ۞ Sentimentalism Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Sentiment-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 993 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg
Size: 884 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 892 KB

#231
Oct 20, 2011 9:08am Oct 20, 2011 9:08am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about U$ Stocks vs. Gov.Bonds spreads.

In this post there are some notes about U$ stocks vs. Gov.Bonds (20-30y abount). Possible underlying stocks-benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

◢ The first curve (r-spread in ema-format of S&P500 vs. U$ Gov.Bond 30y price; oscillators: MACD & TRIX; curve-array in phase vs. underlyings) shows the following graphical elements:
- main trend of curve in bullish status but with hard impact on structural ascending line (binary-blue); moreover there is a monster divergence in 2000/2007 tops of curve (descending) vs. main stocks-benchmarks (ascending);
- secondary trend has bearish array (yellow big-channel from 2000 top), with curve below mid-line (yellow-dotted in set-up vs. ascending blue structural 2-line);
- lows of 2011 of curve a little below 2010 lows;
- MACD with important sell-sign (< 0-line) and in local confirmation-bear of lows-array 2010 vs. 2011;
- TRIX in full descending-test on 0-line, but not below 2010-lows.
◢ The second curve (r-spread in long-term ema-format of S&P500 vs. U$ Gov.Bond 30y price; curve-array in phase vs. underlyings) shows the following additional graphical elements:
- mid & mid-long term ema (blue & red) in bearish cross vs. long-term ema (white) in 2011 (see previous crosses);
- same divergence on 2000/2007 tops, but not descending array of 2010/2011 lows;
- important structural sut-up in progress (yellow-area) for the future trend of indicator.
◢ The final curve (r-spread in ema-format of ETF S&P100 vs. U$ Gov.Bond +20y price: oscillators; oscillators: MACD & TRIX; curve-array in phase vs. underlyings) shows the same bearish-array of first curve, for mid-term, but with actual TRIX value below 0-line and below 2010 lows.

◢ Notes:
The breaks of ascending (structural blue-binary) line of main trend of first chart, can cause an important bear on stocks-indexes.
MACD makes more likely the break of the blue-binary, as the ema-knot (bearish) of second chart (see 2011), and as the oscillators-array of ETF spread.
This scenario shows a first stop if prices of indicator (chart I) go above the yellow-dotted mid-line; a second stop there will be above red-bold descending-line links 2007-2011 tops (chart I & II).

☻/ ۞ BOND Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' BUND@-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤[/quote]

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 811 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 826 KB

#232
Oct 22, 2011 8:02am Oct 22, 2011 8:02am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about ⓄⓉⒸ stocks indicators.

In this post there are some notes about U$ ⓄⓉⒸ stocks indicators. Possible underlying stocks-benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

◢ Penny stocks (= Micro Caps or Bulletin Boards or Pink Sheeters, or O.t.C. Stocks, etc.) are the companies that do not meet the listing requirements of main exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq National Market.
When the investors concentrate on these high risk-degree stocks, it can be concluded that there is a speculation pressure.
Excessive trades on these stocks (extremely heavy penny stock volume) should be a sign that we are in market topping building phase (a sign that optimism is running too high = about too much risk).
When O.t.C. volume is very low, the market is in a bottoming phase.
From the 3 curves (with y/y RoC) there are the following graphical elements:
◢ the bottoms of histogram-charts 'transaction-n.' & '$-volume', shows high convergence vs. Nasdaq Composite bottoms and other benchmarks (blue circles);
◢ there are some hard and structural divergences between Nd/Comp. tops (from 2003 to 2011) vs. all 3 histograms (see big red markers); these divergences are presents also on y/y RoC (see bold descending-lines); important differences vs. other benchmarks;
◢ there are also local divergences 2010/2011, both for histograms and y/y Roc vs. stocks-benchmarks
◢ y/y RoC shows important anticipatory behaviour on bottoming phases (square blue markers).

◢ NOTE:
The O.t.C. histogram indicators shows a bottoming-phase in progress, but y/y RoC shows both hard bearish-array in all frames (see red descending-lines) and absence of divergences on the current lows.
A first turn-step in a bullish-array of ⓄⓉⒸ stocks indicators there will be only with y/y RoC above descending 2010/2011 divergence-lines (= local short-term rectangles); only above red-bold descending-lines there will be a new violent bullish leg on underlyings.
A continuation-bear on these indicators (in time and/or price of curves), increases the probability of violent sell-off on underlyings.

☻/ ۞ ⓄⓉⒸ Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ⓄⓉⒸ-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0240A.jpg
Size: 784 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0240B.jpg
Size: 1.2 MB

#233
Oct 25, 2011 5:33am Oct 25, 2011 5:33am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some charts about €.C.B.

In this post there are some interesting charts about €.C.B. data that can be used as stress-indicators.
For R.T. curves of these charts, see this.
Possible underlying stocks-benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

☻/ ۞ €.C.B. Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €CB-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0241.jpg
Size: 697 KB

#234
Edited 8:49am Nov 1, 2011 8:48am | Edited 8:49am

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about ITA/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads & ITA-ⒸⒹⓈ.

In this post there are some yield-spreads between ITA vs. Deut. Gov.Bonds AND ITA5yⒸⒹⓈ, in order to evaluates the Italian risk.
The general underlying benchmarks are as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The components of curves are as follows (1y frames):
ITALIAN ⒸⒹⓈ-5y
ITA/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads 2y - ITA gov.BOND 2Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 2Y yield
ITA/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads 5y - ITA gov.BOND 5Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 5Y yield
ITA/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads 10y - ITA gov.BOND 10Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 10Y yield
ITA/Deut. Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads 30y - ITA gov.BOND 30Y yield vs. DEUT gov.BOND 30Y yield

ITA5yⒸⒹⓈ & ITA/DEUT.
Gov.Bonds Yield-Spreads: 5y frames
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1318195431

☻/ ۞ ITA.pk Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' K€PI§§A-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

#235
Edited 12:18pm Nov 1, 2011 12:17pm | Edited 12:18pm

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some charts about FOREX pairs of US$.

Pairs of: ChnY -- Nz$ -- Au$ -- Cd$ -- SAR

☻/ ۞ Fo.R€X.pk Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Kurrency-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg
Size: 843 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg
Size: 760 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg
Size: 828 KB

Click to Enlarge

Name: Sa!Vyjpg6aREservoSOVRANO.jpg
Size: 655 KB

#236
Nov 1, 2011 12:38pm Nov 1, 2011 12:38pm

Sal.Vi
| Joined May 2010 | Status: Sa!Vi | 2,227 Posts

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some charts about FOREX pairs of US$.

☻/ ۞ Fo.R€X.pk Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Kurrency-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥

█║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █

❤

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2021-11-01