Daily Market Analysis | Technical and Fundamental (09.05.2025)

Nonfarm Payrolls Preview (Sept 2025)

Forecasts:

1. Citigroup: 45K
2. Goldman Sachs: 60K
3. UBS: 70K
4. Barclays: 75K
5. JPMorgan: 75K
6. BofA: 90K

Unemployment: 4.2% – 4.3%
Wages: +0.3% MoM / +3.7% YoY

Big focus on revisions: past two months saw -258K net downward adjustment. Another cut could raise fresh concerns over labor market strength.

1. Health care: +31,000
2. Social assistance: +16,000
3. Federal government: -15,000
4. Manufacturing: -12,000
5. Wholesale trade: -12,000
6. Energy-related sectors: -6,000

Other industries, including construction, retail, transportation, finance, and leisure, showed little change.

Revisions and Unemployment
Revisions to previous months reinforced the fragile outlook. June payrolls were cut by 27,000, while July saw a modest upward revision of 6,000. Together, employment gains across the two months were 21,000 lower than initially reported.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent, though analysts noted that risks remain tilted toward further increases as hiring weakens.

Policy and Market Implications
The weak report poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains persistent in several categories, yet slower hiring suggests the economy is cooling. Analysts warned that government spending cuts and weaker global demand could further expose vulnerabilities in the labor market.

For investors, the August employment data will be a critical input ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where debate continues over whether to implement a rate cut or wait for clearer signs of stability.